Now, when everyone has begun to calm down a little, it is possible to sort out what happened in Ukraine on the shelves and model certain forecasts.
So, the Kupyan-Izyum retreat (although I would call it a flight) took place. And, since we can only accept it as a fact, it is worth paying less attention to the prerequisites and looking more into the future. So that, say, the Kherson-Donetsk retreat operation does not happen.
There are claims to the terms. A retreat is when the troops withdraw according to a pre-agreed plan, perhaps holding the enemy back in rearguard battles and so on. Judging by how much equipment was abandoned, and even the Ukrainians were stunned by the amount of “donated” (in four videos in the TG, I counted 14 tanks, 3 infantry fighting vehicles, 4 self-propelled guns, 1 "Zoo"), it does not look very much like a planned retreat.
There are questions. Of course, it would be worth asking those tankers who abandoned their tanks. Well, the equipment was clearly abandoned due to lack of fuel. Why didn't they blow it up? Why didn't they blow up the ammunition depots in Balakliya? But these questions are the subject of separate consideration.
What can be said about the Armed Forces? NATO instructors have good students.
I belong to that part of the critically minded who believe that men in cartoons are at the tactical tables, and the ukrovoyaks have the second, if not the third, word at the meeting. But the combat units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, where there is still a (need to work, yes) a high percentage of fighters who have good combat training, and besides, trained in the UK and other quiet places, fighters turned out to be quite combat-ready, and morale is generally beyond praise.
Pro fighting spirit is not just to praise. Many military correspondents note the tenacity with which the fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine go on the attack, despite the losses. This is serious. And now, after the Kupyansko-Izyum victory, I suspect that this fighting spirit will have to be knocked out for quite a long time.
This is a downside for us. And let there lie the inability of our generals to correctly assess the operational situation. It's strange, but let it be on the same scale: Ukrainian fighters who know how to fight, foreign instructors who know how to teach and lead, and Russian generals who don't know how to do a lot of things.
Here are the three main components of Ukrainian success. Plus intelligence, which is provided by the American satellite constellation, AWACS aircraft and a cloud of drones. Our side seemed to see that the enemy was assembling a shock fist, but, apparently, lulled by the “successes” in the destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine performed by Konashenkov, they simply did not pay attention to it. The Supreme High Command, the Minister of Defense and the Head of the General Staff went to the Far East to watch how the exercises were going there, and this is where the Ukrainians betrayed.
Let me remind you how the Armed Forces of Ukraine acted near Kherson. This is useful, we discussed behind the scenes with fellow colonels and lieutenant colonels, it turned out that at that time the Armed Forces of Ukraine worked purely according to the methods inherited from the USSR. Well, the colonels with academic education told us so.
Near Kherson, everything was textbook: artillery treatment of the front edge, attempts to depict something aviation (here, yes, our air defense said: “Go ...”), tank strike groups, supported by large infantry forces (in fact, they worked just BTG) tried to push through the defense between clearly identified strongholds, broke through it, armored infantry went into the gap, further " stop”, consolidated and began to look for new weak points in order to hit there with tanks.
Familiar? Of course. To anyone who took the BUSV in their hands, not for a superficial acquaintance. The fact that Ukrainians and Russians acted according to the same manuals led to the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kherson.
The Russian army perfectly implemented the tactics of dragging armored vehicles under artillery and air strikes. It was possible to correctly realize the advantage in artillery and MLRS. The Armed Forces suffered significant losses.
And the “dizziness from success” began, or rather, a period of calm. The Ministry of Defense every day published horrific figures of the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian side did not carry out any active actions, and on our side everyone calmed down.
And when intelligence began to report on the concentration of troops near Balakleya and Slavyansk, apparently, the headquarters of the Russian troops decided that the Ukrainians would act according to the same scenario. And the regrouping of our troops began in order to cover precisely the most tank-dangerous directions. That is why it is impossible to explain the presence of reservists from the LPR and units of the National Guard in the same Balakleya.
Alas, the APU were no longer the same. The guys from NATO did a great job. Obviously, it was not Ukrainian officers who led the operation. Tactics were used, something between the Donbass of the 2015 model and the actions of some US units in Iraq.
The main tactical maneuver was the control of the roads. No head-on attacks, no concentration of armored vehicles in shock groups. Mobile DRG strikes on communications, bypasses on wheels of strongholds, followed by the introduction of tanks into the breakthrough - and now a threat is being created to encircle an entire group of Russian troops in Izyum, while Russian military leaders were expecting strikes in completely different places.
What Konashenkov voiced as what “Russian troops were regrouped in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum to achieve the stated goals of a special military operation to liberate Donbass. During the transfer, diversion and demonstration activities were carried out with the designation of the real actions of the troops. In order to prevent damage to the Russian troops, a powerful fire defeat was inflicted on the enemy using aviation, missile forces and artillery., if you look at the footage of abandoned Russian equipment, it still looks more like an escape.
But what is the difference between an organized retreat and an unorganized one, we decided to cover it separately with our tank expert, Lieutenant Colonel Kuznetsov.
In general, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have demonstrated that, under the guidance of NATO instructors, their soldiers are capable of good maneuverability. The Russian side completely “overslept” the beginning of events, which ultimately resulted in the hasty abandonment of large territories both in terms of area and population.
As far as we understand, there were no reserve lines for withdrawal, there were no spare strongholds and no reserve for heavy equipment either. Only on the third day did something more or less meaningful begin: preparation of withdrawal lines (often on the Russian-Ukrainian border), defense on Oskol, distracting counterattacks in other sectors of the front.
Yes, it was a small consolation to read the reports of the fighters of the LPR and Kadyrov's soldiers about the systematic progress forward. Artillery attacks on the advancing units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, rocket strikes began.
Who is to blame for the three days of disgrace to the Russian army is again a separate conversation. A common mistake, from the lieutenant, who abandoned his tanks near Izyum, to the chief of the General Staff, who went to the other end of the country to lead the exercises. It is clear that switchmen will be appointed, there is no doubt about that. But is it really necessary?
First of all, we need to understand that the situation has changed, and it has changed not in our favor. NATO officers who direct the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine know how to lead, moreover, lead quickly. It has been noticed that very often VKS and artillery strikes on the enemy are frankly late and do not bring proper results.
On the courage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, of course, they will try to develop success. They already promise to "beat the enemy on his territory," which means like artillery strikes on the settlements of the Kursk and Belgorod regions. I don’t even want to think about the railway (the same one), the Kantemirovka-Chertkovo stretch. Plus DRGs, which will most likely be sent to Russian territory.
Of course, it is easier to carry out terror on the Russian side than to guard and defend. However, if it starts, it won't be tomorrow. The Russian army has time to move the Armed Forces back, away from the border, beyond the range of artillery and MLRS, thereby securing Russian settlements.
You still have to do it.
I have repeatedly asked myself the question of the illogical behavior of the Ukrainian military, who the next day after leaving the settlement begin to shell it. Kind people on the other side explained: the Armed Forces of Ukraine today have an unofficial slogan "Will or death!". That is, "Freedom or death", if in our opinion. The slogan of the anarchists and detachments of Nestor Ivanovich Makhno. Naturally, with Ukrainian modern adjustments.
The adjustments are that if so, then the alignment is as follows: in the event of a threat of occupation of the settlement by the aggressor army (it is clear that the Russian one), all law-abiding citizens of Ukraine are required to evacuate. All relevant structures should (in theory) ensure the evacuation of citizens, help, supply and all that.
It is clear that in reality this does not always happen, not everyone wants to leave. For various reasons, but do not want to. Accordingly, these people become suspected of treason, which means that they can be fired upon with artillery and mortars.
And if one of the servicemen, for one reason or another, does not want to carry out an order to launch an artillery strike on a populated area, then ... You probably don’t need to explain. In this case, the SBU is one of the best scenarios, because the veterans of the ATO, who are now in command positions at the lower level in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, can put a bullet in the back of the head.
In terbats, of course, there are no moral problems.
So the Ukrainian military will shoot at our cities. Who for what reasons, but will. Therefore, it will be necessary to move the front line to the west from the Belgorod and Kursk regions, where, by the way, shelling continues.
We'll have to move the front line, we'll have to catch dashing lads from the DRG who want to make a fuss in the rear of the troops and on Russian territory, we'll have to categorically strengthen border security.
Now, probably, many will expect a conversation about mobilization. No, we won't talk about it. No more people needed. We need more missiles, more missiles and more missiles. It is possible and necessary to scoop out all the arsenals and use even the most ancient cruise missiles capable of operating in Ukrainian conditions. First of all, knock out the guidance radar and air defense systems. It is difficult, we need a decent satellite constellation, which we do not have.
On one Ukrainian projectile one hundred of ours should fly out. For one of their "Point" - twenty of our X-101 and ten "Caliber". Expensive but necessary.
How much we hollowed about the bridges across the Dnieper? What behind-the-scenes agreements prevent them from being destroyed and depriving the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the supply of everything? Yes, to hit substations, to deprive Ukrzaliznitsa of the opportunity to transport equipment and ammunition to the front.
And let's finish this snotty rhetoric about the need to save infrastructure in the interests of the people. After applying the "Solntsepekov" it looks so-so. It is necessary to destroy the enemy transport infrastructure everywhere and without the slightest doubt.
Then people in huge quantities will not be required. For mobilization in the performance of our military registration and enlistment offices will mean a surge in corruption and chaos.
People are a separate and complex issue. I compared the APU with the dragon. Three-headed. Actually, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, terbats and NATO. The third head behind the first two is hidden but present. Manages, as you can see, and not bad.
We are worse in this regard. Hydra is multi-headed. The Russian armed forces, the National Guard, parts of the LPR, parts of the DPR, moreover, there are official, and there are separate volunteer formations such as the Vostok battalion of Alexander Khodakovsky, there are Chechen volunteer formations and official forces of the Chechen Republic. There are Russian volunteers - "musicians".
It is clear that, in theory, representatives of the RF Armed Forces should steer, but how they sometimes do it - I understand those who are trying to gain maximum independence in decisions. I especially think so in the direction of the Donbass, which are head and shoulders above in tactics.
Of course, I want to win. And to win not on paper, in the joyful reports of the Ministry of Defense, in which (judging by the comments on the Internet) no one can believe for a penny, but in reality. Coming to Ukrainian cities, where we will be welcome, and not to leave. Do not abandon those who believe in Russia. Not to see pictures from the abandoned cities, where no less joyful residents pluck and carry Russian flags to the trash heaps and hoist Ukrainian flags back.
We had victories. But comparing the team of the underdogs of the Arab world in Syria and the toy army of Georgia and the Ukrainian one is stupid. It is foolish to underestimate the enemy.
"Know the enemy and know yourself: then in a thousand battles you will not be defeated". (Sun Tzu).
“Never despise your enemy, whatever he may be, and know him well weapon, his image to act and fight. Know what is his strength and what is the weakness of the enemy.. (Alexander Suvorov).
And here we have a lot of not only old Soviet weapons, there are Ukrainian modifications, and NATO sent new products. Plus, instead of the Ukrainian headquarters, NATO specialists are working, who surpass us in the level of awareness.
Intelligence is generally the weak point of the Russian army, as it turned out. It’s okay not to detect the movement of artillery and MLRS, to “look through” helicopters ... But not to see two reserve corps instead of one, and several thousand more mercenaries to them - this is very ugly. Apparently, there are problems with the agent network.
Today, the “comforter experts” are already starting to talk about the fact that Balakleya was “inconvenient” for defense, that the city is not so needed if you are not going to attack Kharkov, there will be many such speeches. They will tell you that everything that is happening is another cunning plan to draw the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the fortified areas for subsequent destruction ... There will be more fairy tales.
The main story is this: it became clear back in April that there would be no easy victory. What will not be fast - in September. The question is about minimizing our losses, both among the military and among the civilian population. Secondly, it is especially important that civilians in the Kursk and Belgorod regions did not sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense and do not receive money for being at war.
So many destinies have already been crippled that the hair stands on end. And you should not increase this account further, to infinity.
What can be said in terms of the outcome?
In order to prevent it from being completely shameful to go on the defensive on the Ukrainian-Russian border and catch everything that flies through it, it is necessary to change the very approach to conducting the NWO. Without regard to the opinion of Europe, which supplies Ukraine with weapons and trains fighters.
Yes, we should not forget that the Spaniards, Germans, British train the Ukrainian military at their bases. And they are armed. And they give a few not what they declare. The Excaliburs were a very unpleasant surprise.
- bridges across the Dnieper must be destroyed;
- traction substations at junction railway stations, thermal power plants in cities should be destroyed;
- decision-making centers must be destroyed.
In addition, the maximum destruction of rolling stock (diesel locomotives) by all available means. There will be no railway - there will be no transportation of everything. Today in Ukraine there are no problems with fuel and delivery of military equipment. There must be global problems.
Pay special attention to counteracting foreign technical intelligence. In every possible way. It is very difficult to arrange a regrouping of troops if your every step is known to the enemy.
The Department of Defense should HEAR not their managers entertaining generals at exhibitions with Chinese DIY kits, but those who are fighting. Who lacks elementary things for war, like artillerymen - tablets for calculations, as spotters - drones, and so on.
The slogan "Everything for the front - everything for victory" is obligatory, first of all, for the Ministry of Defense and its managers, and not for other citizens of Russia.
If you believe the press service of the Ministry of Defense (honestly, I don’t believe it at all), the enemy is suffering huge losses. Reporting from the field speaks of stubborn battles and seems to confirm this, but one should clearly calculate the mobilization capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In fact, I communicate with my Ukrainian sources, there is no hysteria. They do not go home and are not sent to the front in handcuffs. Understanding the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the configuration of combat-ready formations is very important.
Today, hospitals in many cities of Ukraine are overcrowded with the wounded. Did this affect the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack? No. One must understand that NATO commanders absolutely do not care about the human resources of Ukraine. We understand this, sooner or later they will understand it there too. But it is very important for us to know the critical loss threshold for the APU.
It is also very important to understand that the commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are very pleased with the unhurried course of the NMD taken by our commanders. They have time to see everything, analyze and develop response moves. Given that there are no problems with equipment, NATO does not care about losses in manpower, the RF Armed Forces have obvious problems in losing momentum.
What the Armed Forces of Ukraine will get by advancing at such a pace and with such losses is not entirely clear to me personally. Blood-drenched territories that could easily be lost tomorrow - it is not entirely clear how this can be translated into success in the political arena. No, it is clear that "we are winning, give us money" is an option. Hannibal in such a situation, the Council of Carthage showed a fig.
Our political losses are simply enormous. They came, stood and fled - this is not something that wins the brains and souls of Ukrainians. The leadership of the army does not understand this, but this is generally a separate conversation. It turns out that we did not just deceive us with our departure. Yes, retreating in 1941, our ancestors promised to return and they were believed. Like today, it's hard for me to say.
I would like to return to these lands, I would like to return these people to Russia. But there are many difficulties in terms of faith and trust. How much will the Russians be trusted in this regard and believe in Russia. You can come back to empty lands. You can come to the lands where our people will live. And there may be an option when we really become occupiers in the eyes of the people who remain on their land, who will simply take revenge. In Ukraine, this is quite a normal option.
But in any case, the situation will have to be broken and changed. Not for the sake of Ukrainians, who trust Russia. For the sake of their own, to whom war may come tomorrow.
And with the hydra, too, you need to do something. Yes, something will grow in the place of one severed head. But it would be better if it grew smaller, and not "something", but what is needed.