Global economic war: the trump cards of the Russian arsenal
Unique Russian sapphires. Source: energomera.com
House without heating
To understand how difficult it is to cut Russia out of global production chains, imagine a busy skyscraper. This human anthill is stuffed with electronics from Taiwan and Singapore, elevator equipment from Germany, furniture from Sweden and other attributes of a comfortable life of the “golden billion”. But one fine day, the building is cut off from heat and electricity - one of the most primitive human needs.
The production of this good does not require scarce competencies, like assembling semiconductors. It is necessary to have cheap and affordable energy sources that can cool apartments in the heat and heat them in winter. And here it becomes no longer important what brand the air conditioner is in the apartment, the main thing is that it completely refuses to work without electricity.
Things get even worse when the grocery stores in the skyscraper begin to empty the shelves, and trendy cafes noticeably reduce the assortment. A person from the "golden billion" has a remote job, he is used to creating content from the comfort of a respectable loft on the hundredth floor of a skyscraper, but he froze, his gadgets' batteries were dead, and pizza delivery was chronically delayed. The salt is also added by the migrants who have come in large numbers, fleeing from even greater hunger in the notorious third world countries.
Of course, the example above is a bit exaggerated, but it illustrates the situation in which a large part of the countries unfriendly to Russia are now. The high technologies that Europe and the United States are proud of, with their sympathizers, and with which they defiantly terrorize the rest of the world, are not guarantors of sovereignty. Despite this, a real economic war flares up in the world. It began much earlier than February 24, and not at the initiative of our side.
In any war, the arsenal that the side of the conflict has is important, and Russia has a unique position here. In case of urgent need, the country can simply close and be completely independent of external factors. To meet the basic needs for warmth and food, Russia has everything, and in abundance. Of course, it is better not to bring such a global collapse, but the very possibility of the country's autonomy is present. Unlike, for example, Germany, which, perhaps, will provide food for itself, but not at all with warmth and energy. Turkey, even worse, itself will not be able to feed the population, or heat, or charge cell phones properly.
That is why there is such an attitude towards Russia now. A country that has made a real revolution in Eurocentric consciousness, even though it received unprecedented sanctions, is still not excluded from world trade and politics. This is too valuable an asset, which in the conditions of economic war requires special treatment. There is no particular desire to switch to pathos declarations, but if the Kremlin is truly angered, then it will not seem enough to anyone. And nuclear weapon it doesn't matter here.
Elements of the Russian table
Russia can knock down Western production capacities, albeit temporarily, by limiting the supply of inert gases abroad, primarily neon. These gases have a remarkable feature - they do not react with other substances. Inert gases glow when an electric current is passed, which is used in gas discharge lamps and advertising "neon" signs. Such substances are obtained by liquefaction and rectification (distillation) of atmospheric air.
But inert gases are used not only for entertainment and lighting - in recent decades, a large share goes to the production of lasers. Gas lasers run on a mixture of neon and helium. The microelectronic industry cannot do without neon either - integrated transistors are manufactured by ultraviolet photolithography in an inert gas atmosphere. Moreover, Western manufacturers have not yet put on stream the waste-free use of neon, which exacerbates the dependence on this substance.
Simply put, scarce neon is sent back into the atmosphere after the semiconductor is printed. Prototypes of photolithography machines capable of reusing inert gases are still under development and cost significantly more than classical technology. Russia controls up to 30% of the world market for neon and other inert gases. Moreover, our country exports raw gases obtained by liquefying air at metallurgical plants.
Processing of Russian gas raw materials was carried out by two enterprises in Ukraine - Mariupol "Ingaz" and Odessa "Isblik". The first accounted for up to 5% of the world trade in high-purity neon, the second for up to 65%. The factories also occupied 30% of the global xenon market and up to 40% of krypton supplies. Formally, if now Russia and Ukraine simultaneously stop the supply of strategic gases, then, for example, Taiwanese processor manufacturers will have to seriously reduce production volumes. For example, the new iPhone will be released either late or with an outdated "stone". By the way, in early June, the Kremlin limited the export of inert gases until the end of this year, which has already caused prices to rise by 15-20%.
Sapphires made in Russia. Source: energomera.com
Fast forward to Stavropol to the plant "Monocrystal", whose technical competence is known throughout the world. The point is high-purity synthetic sapphires, which only here can do well - more than 40% of the market belongs to Russia in this segment. Some experts claim that our country controls up to 80% of the world sapphire market.
Sapphire wafers or substrates are used by manufacturers of LEDs, high-end watches and gadgets. For example, the Apple Watch glass is made of artificial sapphire, a unique crystal second in hardness after diamond. Six of the ten largest LED manufacturers work with Monocrystal. And they will work - here imaginary reputational losses are of no interest to anyone. Highly pure sapphires also occupy an important place in the semiconductor production cycle. Monocrystal is the world's largest manufacturer of synthetic crystals of such a high level, and the United States, Japan and China are still hunting for the secrets of a unique enterprise.
At the same time, it will not be possible to simply replace Russian sapphire - the technology is much more complicated than the banal liquefaction and rectification of air. Crystals in our country have been learning to make since 1984, and by now they have reached real perfection. In Stavropol, they are able to grow super-large crystals of 300 and 350 kg. They tried to grow something similar in the import company GTAT, but Apple's main investor simply wasted more than $ 1 billion on the project. According to experts, Western companies will need up to 10-15 years to replace Russian products in this market segment. Optimists argue that it will take at least 30 years to reach a particularly pure mode of crystal synthesis, similar to the Russian one.
Palladium is a particularly valuable metal, the value of which is higher than that of gold. The main consumer (up to 80% of world production) is the automotive industry, more precisely, the production cycle of catalytic converters, in which toxic components of exhaust gases “burn out”. There will be no palladium mined by the Russian Norilsk Nickel, there will be no 40% of the market, which will automatically drive up prices to the sky.
By the way, European manufacturers realized this in time and bought a record volume of palladium from Russia in the second month of the special operation - 164 troy ounces. At the moment, our country does not block the supply of this precious metal, obviously saving the trump card for other times. Replacing Russian palladium, according to experts from Profil magazine, will require billions in investments and at least five years of hard work.
Source: exp.idk.ru
US trade statistics show how critically important goods made in Russia are for the world market. Biden, as you know, promised to abandon Russian imports altogether, but by August 2022, Americans are buying $1 billion worth of goods from us every month. This, according to the White House, should cause the Kremlin "pain" and deliver a "crushing blow." Moreover, the US presidential administration decided not to impose 35% duties on the mentioned palladium, nickel and titanium.
It would seem, what is so unique in nickel? Can't they smelt it in the USA themselves? It turns out that it is Ni with the Made in Russia mark that is best suited for the production of high-quality stainless steels, heat-resistant alloys and batteries. Such is the "world gas station" is obtained. In addition, the Americans willingly take enriched uranium from Russia, pig iron and, of course, mineral fertilizers. The last asset is perhaps the most important in the world economic war - more than 20% of the world's supplies are from our country.
If suddenly the Kremlin decides to keep all potash, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers for itself, then the next year the world will add several hundred million undernourished. Moreover, not necessarily from third world countries. The "Golden Billion" will very clearly feel in their own skin how expensive the Russophobic policy is. And this is without taking into account the supply of natural hydrocarbons, traditionally Russia's most powerful geopolitical lever.
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