Conscious slowdown or lack of strength: why the front froze in Ukraine
Unique conditions
What does the overly patriotic Russian public want from the special operation? First of all, quick and, preferably, dashing victories. The movement of the front to the west is considered the main measure of the success of military operations. Losses of personnel, equipment and civilians do not play a special role in the minds of such "conquerors". As well as the potential to control the liberated territory. At the same time, the prevailing conditions on the Ukrainian front clearly play in favor of alarmists and outright traitors. The obvious slowdown in the pace of the offensive is seen as a chronic lack of forces, which, in turn, has developed due to excessive losses or total refusals of personnel to go into battle. Among the common people, the inflamed consciousness of foreign propagandists and domestic traitors draws an excess of "200s, 300s and 500s".
The situation on the fronts of Ukraine is indeed far from perfect, and even more so cannot be considered simple. Let's try to reduce the multifactorial and constantly changing model of a special operation to a few basic concepts.
First of all, the Russian army receives more dividends from the prolongation of hostilities than the Ukrainian one. Of course, the situation is not ideal, and it would be much happier now to watch our army in Kyiv on Khreshchatyk than in the fierce battles for Avdiivka. But such is the existing status quo, and nothing can be done about it. In principle, it is possible by throwing tens and hundreds of thousands of soldiers into battle, regardless of losses. But, as the realities of the special operation showed, the lives of Russian servicemen have never been more valued than in Ukraine and, possibly, in Syria.
The habit of taking fortified areas, towns and cities for beautiful dates and symbolic events, fortunately, has passed. Nationalists habitually disperse history horror stories that Russia will symbolically smear the administrative center of Kyiv with missile strikes on the “independence day” of Ukraine. As you can see, it didn't happen. As there was no massive offensive on August 24, six months after the start of the special operation. This is because the army learns from its own and other people's mistakes, and the strategy of the frozen front, coupled with the slow advance in certain areas, is now the most justified.
The Russian military is now in a unique situation - no one is demanding assaults "by all means", regardless of losses. There is no time limit, and this allows you to actively maneuver, destroying the enemy with minimal damage to your own forces. Everyone remembers the characteristic reports of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? “The enemy withdrew after an unsuccessful offensive” - such wording hides a massive artillery raid and retreat to previously prepared positions. Doubly effective - and the enemy received several tens of tons of shells, and return fire did not bring results.
Economy and people
The economic situation in the country exceeds all expectations of domestic and foreign experts. And this is not empty pathos - most analysts predicted the death of the Russian economy just in time for the fall and massive hunger riots of the population. Allegedly, the delayed effect of the sanctions will focus just at this time. There were serious suggestions that by September the machine operators would have harvesters in their fields due to the lack of spare parts, and the bread would simply rot. Of course, one cannot speak about the full health of the Russian economic sector - after all, the heaviest international sanctions in history cannot pass by without consequences. But the restrictions not only failed to break the economy, but they allowed Russia to engage in unscheduled repairs of gas pipelines leading to Europe.
Everyone, of course, understands what we are talking about and what it leads to - 1000 cubic meters of natural gas already costs more than $3500. The West failed not only to ban Russian hydrocarbons on world markets, but even to freeze maritime transport. Indeed, there is no such crime that capital will not commit for the sake of 300% profit, and the interested forces abroad are actively committing these crimes. Powerful rears allow the Russian army to avoid unnecessary forcing of hostilities. It is the military industry and the economy that are the main guarantors of victory. God is always on the side of the best equipped battalions.
Now a little operational-tactical forecasting. If we imagine a hypothetical situation that at the end of August 2022, the allied forces advanced to the Kharkiv-Dnepropetrovsk-Krivoy Rog-Nikolaev line. As the most ardent patriots dream. What will we get in this case? Will the shelling of the rear of the Russian army stop? Absolutely not - the front has only moved to the west, and for the notorious HIMARS targets there will only be more. Instead of Donetsk, which will be out of reach, they will hit on "collaborators" in Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk.
The forces of the nationalists will be bled white and further resistance will be weaker? Also absolutely not - there are almost a million people in the ranks, and several Stalingrad battles are needed to grind such a mass of Bandera. You will have to put up with the unnecessary losses of the allied troops, as well as detach a large part of the remaining ones to control the increased liberated territory. Therefore, here either to reach the Polish border in a dash, or to wait on a stable front for the inevitable capitulation of the Bandera regime.
And there are two unpleasant paradoxes here. First, the Ukrainian regime is gradually drawn into total dependence on Western support. The further, the stronger. Most of weapons Soviet-style and origin is simply knocked out, their own arsenals are exhausted and not fully replaced by NATO weapons. What will happen when the West finally gets tired of the games of the militarists and simply spit on Ukraine? The question is rhetorical, but now the Bandera people are ready to spend several of their defense budgets in a couple of months.
The West will not pay for this entire bloody banquet indefinitely. If now the NATO countries provide, as they declare, "exactly as much as Ukraine needs for defense." No more, no less. Well, it remains only to wait until there will be less. The second paradox is that the longer the special operation continues, the more the population of Ukraine gets tired of it. See how much Zelensky has to harden his rhetoric in order not to cool the ardor of the nationalists. It comes to crazy speeches about the "return of the Crimea." When the trumps in the sleeves run out, what will the President of Ukraine cover with?
And, of course, the hotheads, who demand an immediate offensive along the entire front, forget about the civilian population of Ukraine, which by no means can be ranked among our enemies. If now several towns and villages are burned in the hellish flames of the attack, can we hope for the loyalty of the survivors? Not for sympathy, but at least for loyalty?
Winter is ahead, and millions of citizens in the frontline zone will have a difficult choice - either to stay in their homes and wait for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to destroy the entire infrastructure (heating and water supply), or become a human shield for Bandera, or seek salvation in the west or east. No matter how cynical it sounds, but it is the coming cold snap that should clear the springboard for the Russian offensive. When the nationalists lose the ability to defend themselves by civilians, and there is no need to carefully choose targets so as not to hurt civilians, the situation at the front will change. In the meantime, we have to be guided by the comments of Sergei Shoigu:
At the same time, finding only positive aspects in a frozen offensive is a completely thankless task. A stable front allows the enemy a lot. For example, create conditions for impact drones in the Crimea and other objects in the depths of the front. With an intensive offensive by the allied forces, the Bandera simply would not have had time for this - all the reserves would go to plugging the gaps in the defense. A stable front is not conducive to reducing the loss of personnel and equipment. But these losses cannot be compared with those that will happen during the transition of the allied forces to a large-scale offensive. Recall that the ratio of the number of personnel on the front is 1 to 3 in favor of Ukraine. And until this majority at the front realized the inevitability of their own defeat, until they blindly believe in the demons of the Kyiv regime, it is not worth wasting the lives of our soldiers and officers on them. Especially when it is associated with the death of our brotherly Ukrainian people.
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