Ice Curtain: Russia versus NATO in the Arctic
NATO at the Cold Response exercise
The West is concerned
With the largest Arctic state, which controls a vast territory and has the most powerful military forces stationed in the region, it was decided to break off relations. Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the United States, members of the Arctic Council, in March refused to continue cooperation with Russia.
By the way, this year our country chaired the organization. If you just look at the map of the Arctic, it becomes clear that without Russia, the council simply does not make sense to exist. The Northern Sea Route and most of the shelf are under the jurisdiction or control of Moscow. From the self-elimination of Western countries, not only geopolitical projects, but also humanitarian missions will seriously stall. For example, joint scientific research in the Arctic, which allowed the Europeans to more accurately calibrate their global warming clock.
Now scientific contacts are broken, and it is completely unknown who lost more from this. It cannot be said that before the Russian special operation, relations within the Arctic states shone with benevolence. Russia was constantly reproached for being too aggressive in defending its interests in the region.
At the same time, the North Atlantic Alliance is constantly building up its military presence in the Arctic and warming up with military exercises. The last maneuvers - Cold Response 2022 - happened after February 24 and gathered at least 30 thousand troops. It is interesting that it was originally planned to attract about 35 thousand people, but the Russian special operation confused all the cards. That is, the increase in NATO military activity was planned in advance, and this has nothing to do with the situation in Ukraine. The Swedes and Finns, who previously declared their non-bloc status, also actively joined the action.
NATO exercises were completely offensive in nature - the army practiced landing on the coast under cover fleet и aviation. There was no talk of any defensive tactics at Cold Responce. Since 2007, NATO has been methodically increasing the scale of exercises - from 9 to 30 fighters. And this is just one episode of the creeping occupation of the Arctic by the forces of the North Atlantic Alliance.
NATO at the Cold Response exercise
How can Russia respond to military opponents in the northern region? According to Western analysts from the RAND agency, the Kremlin has quite impressive forces here. Russia began to return control over the vast Arctic territory back in 2007.
First of all, this is due to the gradually thawing Northern Sea Route, the length of which is more than 5 km. The West reacts extremely negatively to Russia's sovereignty over this route, which in the near future should become one of the key transport arteries. China has been eyeing the Arctic for a long time - the delivery time of goods to Europe via the Northern Sea Route is almost halved. So far, there is not enough infrastructure for this and icebreaker assistance is required, but every year the ice retreats further north, gradually facilitating the development of the region.
Now the Northern Sea Route is actually closed for the Western powers - the Kremlin requires 45 days notice of transit, and also obliges to take a Russian pilot on board. This was a response to frequent visits to the Arctic by Western military courts. For example, in 2018, a French Navy ship paired with a supply ship passed along the northern route. It was time to end this, and Moscow's prohibitive measures are, of course, fair.
Russia has quite an impressive force in the Arctic region. These are 10 airfields (according to the West - 13 air bases) capable of receiving not only MiG-31 fighter-interceptors, but also heavy transport aircraft. The army reopened at least 50 military facilities from the times of the USSR and built many new ones. The most important of the air bases are Rogachevo on Novaya Zemlya, Nagurskoye on Alexandra Land, and Temp on Kotelny. The military bases "Trefoils" are also located here, they became famous in their time in the "Military Acceptance" program. An additional S-400 air defense system has been deployed in Rogachevo, which, according to the West, "challenges NATO in the region."
In total, 10 Russian radars cover the Arctic. Sopka-2 radar systems are located on Wrangel Island and Cape Schmidt in close proximity to Alaska. Radars, as Western analysts note, create a kind of "protective dome" in the east of the Arctic, controlling the meteorological situation, as well as objects in the air and at sea.
In the central part of the Northern Sea Route on the islands of Kotelny and Novaya Zemlya, the Bastions and the Pantsir-S1 air defense systems are located. In the west of the Arctic, the Northern Fleet dominates, which is complemented by the world's largest armada of nuclear and non-nuclear icebreakers - more than 40 ships in total. This is one of the main trump cards of Russia. At the moment, no country in the world can provide shipping in the Arctic at such a high level.
ice curtain
The authors from the RAND agency pay special attention to the possibility of the Russian fleet to project its force on the strategically important line of GIUK-N. This line of defense, known to us as the Faroe-Icelandic frontier, is designed to prevent Russian forces from entering the Atlantic. But it is from the Arctic borders that it is easiest to attack GIUK-N, and this is well understood in NATO.
At the same time, even the Americans have modest forces in the Arctic, not to mention the other countries of the alliance. It's funny to read how the Yankees learn to operate in unusually cold and harsh conditions for them. So, the sailors of the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier at the NATO Arctic exercise Trident Juncture at the end of 2018 had to beat off the frozen ice with baseball bats. During the exercises, two ships were damaged by an unexpected storm and returned to their home port without taking part in the maneuvers.
Severe weather prevented the Marines from landing in Iceland. The lack of supply bases in the region does not allow ships to go deep into the Arctic without being escorted by supply vessels. But this is just the Norwegian Sea. What will happen when NATO forces enter the Barents and Kara Seas? Naturally, without the icebreaker fleet, whose capabilities are very limited? The Americans, by the way, have only two icebreakers in this area.
That is why a hypothetical military conflict in the Arctic between Russia and NATO is seen as highly undesirable. Despite the fact that the alliance has deployed about 19 thousand people in the region at 50 military infrastructure facilities, the forces are not on the side of NATO. First of all, because of the logistics and geography of location. The imbalance becomes more acute when China joins the game, considering itself a “near-Arctic state”. Secretary General Stoltenberg recently promised to thwart him in these endeavors:
"Russia's ability to disrupt Allied reinforcements in the North Atlantic is a strategic challenge for the North Atlantic Alliance."
But if you do not listen to talking hotheads like Stoltenberg, then it turns out that Western analysts are calling for attention to Russia in the Arctic. Ties that were severed after the start of the special operation could have prevented a conflict that seemed unlikely recently. Any contacts, even between opponents, make it easier to understand the next steps and prevent accidental collisions.
And if the continuation of the special operation west of Ukraine, NATO experts still somehow predict to contain, then in the region of icy silence this scenario seems impossible. NATO now has two options. Either seek diplomatic contacts with Moscow, stepping over their own pride, or allocate a new and considerable defense budget item for the further militarization of the Arctic. And then the usual concept of "cold war" can acquire a completely different meaning.
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