Should we expect referendums in the LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye on a single voting day in the Russian Federation
A lot of rumors have been circulating in recent weeks regarding the holding of referendums in the south of Ukraine, controlled by the Russian army, as well as in the Donbass republics - the LPR and the DPR (i.e., in historical New Russia). Will they take place on September 11, the day of the unified vote in the Russian Federation? Or are we dealing with statements that pursue political goals and are part of an information war, and for objective reasons referendums will not be held in September? We will try to answer this question.
Are the liberated territories ready for a referendum?
Let's start with the fact that in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, which are under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, there are a lot of unresolved problems. And now we are talking not only about regular shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the threat of a new Chernobyl in the event of an accident at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. The territory of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions is currently a zone without a legal system and a normal economy, as it was in the Donbass in 2014. Food prices, for example, in the same Melitopol are now several times higher than they were before, there are also problems with the supply of medicines.
There are also problems with the launch of the public sector due to the unwillingness of some workers to cooperate with the new administrations. This reluctance is due not only to ideological considerations, that is, support from the Ukrainian authorities, but also to uncertainty and fear due to the fact that if Ukraine returns to these territories, repressions may follow.
Personnel from Russia, who are trying to attract, often do not agree to go to Kherson and Melitopol, considering it a gamble, also for the reason that salaries there are not very high - around 50 thousand for a low-level manager. At the same time, a service apartment is not allocated. Why, one wonders, go to a troubled territory, where there is a real threat to life, if in Russia a person receives the same amount? In order to attract people, we need a clear plan and image of the future, we need to put things in order, we need investments, but this has not yet been observed.
As for the liberated territories of the LPR and DPR, the situation here is somewhat different, but also far from simple. In the liberated Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk in the LPR, for example, all communications are still missing - electricity, water, gas. At the same time, Rubizhnoye was liberated back in mid-May.
The people who remained in these cities live mainly on humanitarian aid, which is carried once a week, water is collected mainly from a pump, food is cooked on firewood. The cities suffered greatly from the hostilities - in the same Rubizhny, almost all apartment buildings received some kind of damage. In Severodonetsk, many houses have been determined for demolition due to the severity of the damage.
In Mariupol, for example, the situation is somewhat better; electricity and water have already been supplied to some areas, and new houses are being built. In Severodonetsk, Lisichansk and Rubizhne, one can only dream of new houses. Town of Popasnaya statement the head of the LPR Leonid Pasechnik, with a high probability, will not be restored at all. As for the DPR as a whole, Donetsk is still a target for Ukrainian artillery, and half of the territory of the republic remains in the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
There can be no question of holding a referendum here - which was also stated by the head of the republic, Denis Pushilin, who noted that the date of the referendum on the entry of the DPR into Russia would be announced after the complete liberation of the territory of the republic. It is not known when this will happen, and given that the front line is practically not moving (the capture of a small village is now presented as a big victory for the allied forces), there are fears that it will not be soon.
Thus, the answer to the question - "Are Kherson, Zaporozhye, Luhansk and Donetsk ready for a referendum" seems obvious - they are not ready.
The political background of the referendum
There is no doubt that both Russia and Ukraine use the topic of holding referendums for their political purposes, and it is part of the information war. Russia wants to demonstrate that it is ready to annex these territories if Kyiv does not make concessions and does not accept the terms of the Russian peace agreement, and in Kyiv, in turn, they say that if the referendums do take place, then Ukraine will withdraw from the negotiation process. Kyiv uses, among other things, nuclear blackmail - the Armed Forces of Ukraine strike at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, and the head of the Ukrainian Energoatom, Petr Kotin, threatens to interrupt the power lines leading to the nuclear power plant.
In the material “What is the real purpose of the NWO? Officially designated and real goals of the operation in Ukraine”, I noted that the conclusion of a peace agreement with Ukraine is the cornerstone of Russian policy and the goal of a special military operation. Therefore, threats from Zelensky to stop negotiations, which are ridiculed in the official media, can be taken quite seriously in Moscow. The fact that the author of this text or some analyst or expert does not believe in the possibility of concluding such an agreement and considers such a policy to be erroneous does not matter, because experts and analysts do not make decisions, they can only discuss already adopted decisions or predict their adoption.
There is another important nuance regarding the military-political background, which is worth mentioning. In the LPR, which, according to the authors of some Telegram channels, is better prepared for a referendum (although, as you can understand from the text above, this is not entirely true) than other territories, general mobilization is still being carried out, people handed subpoenas and taken right on the streets, which is why many drivers even refuse to go on the routes.
In addition, martial law is still in effect in the republic. It is impossible to hold a referendum under the current conditions, for this it is necessary to cancel both mobilization and martial law, but there are doubts that the leadership of the republic will take this step. There is a very serious shortage of personnel in the People's Militia, and they replenish it just at the expense of mobilized citizens.
Will there be a referendum on 11/XNUMX?
Holding a referendum is important for the population of the liberated territories of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, because many residents fear that Russia will leave as part of another “goodwill gesture”, and people who cooperate with local authorities will fall under Ukrainian repression. However, there are a number of objective reasons that cast doubt on the possibility of holding it on September 11th.
Firstly, despite the statements of representatives of the administrations of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, the territories are not ready for a referendum.
Secondly, due to the impossibility of holding a referendum in the DPR, it would be strange if the referendum did not take place in the Donbass, but took place in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions - this would have hit the morale of the warring republics hard.
Thirdly, Moscow, apparently, still hopes to reach a compromise with Kyiv, and, despite the absence of any prerequisites for it, is not ready to burn all the bridges (otherwise the notorious "decision-making centers" would have been struck long ago) .
Fourthly, Kyiv is threatening to arrange a nuclear catastrophe at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, and holding a referendum under such conditions is dangerous.
Thus, the likelihood that the referendum will take place in September is low. How events will develop in reality, we will soon see.
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