US Ukraine is no longer interested. Returning to the Polish-Baltic variant
I have always been impressed by the business acumen of the Americans. Their ability to strategically plan their foreign and domestic policies so that even in an unfavorable situation today, there is always a perspective for the future. So that in the future the situation will change as it is necessary for American business. So that even a defeat in the future turns into a victory.
You can talk as much as you like about the unscrupulousness of Americans, about deceit, about ruthlessness and inhumanity, but in the end, in most cases, their defeats turn out to be good for American business. The example of defeat in the Vietnam War perfectly shows how the Americans do it.
Today, because of the situation in Ukraine, the situation in Europe has become so tense that the governments of the NATO and EU countries are making many sacrifices in order to "defeat aggressive Russia." They deliberately destroy their own economy, bleed their own army, worsen the life of their own population.
Both we and the Europeans are surprised by the fact that Europe is on the brink of another world war. Nobody wants to fight, but for some reason the situation is developing in this way. We accuse the European countries of wanting to start a war, the Europeans accuse us.
Moreover, the division of countries is very clearly visible. Those who try to be independent or friendly to Russia find themselves on our side, while pro-American countries unanimously declare us aggressors. And sometimes it comes to complete absurdity. Like yesterday's statement by New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern:
New Zealand will continue to respond to Ukraine's requests for practical support for its people who are defending their homeland. We are sending 120 members of the New Zealand Armed Forces to train new recruits in the UK.
This is part of our assistance to Ukraine, which also includes more than NZ$40 million ($25,7 million) in financial support and restrictive sanctions against 840 Russian individuals and entities.
And this despite the fact that the New Zealand army is 4 military personnel, plus 300 people in reserve and 1 civilians working in army structures. And the total number of the Armed Forces of this country, the army plus the Navy and Air Force is 800 thousand people. I wonder what New Zealanders will teach Ukrainians? Actions in the jungle or the use of modern weapons?
Nothing personal, just business
What is happening in Europe today? NATO countries are intensively emptying their own arsenals not only from Soviet weapons, but also from American ones, including analogues of their own production. Ukraine has already helped to get rid of obsolete weapons and is now receiving modern ones, which are in service with NATO countries.
Europeans are already beginning to ask their own governments about what their own army will fight with? And this is where the very strategic idea of the Americans is revealed. The army of the NATO countries will have to be armed. With what? The answer is obvious. American weapons and technology! And, of course, it's not free.
Look at the countries on NATO's eastern flank. The Baltic "lions" and the Poles almost constantly come forward with a demand to Washington for the supply of weapons to protect against Russia. I don't want to write about Kyiv and its demands. They demand everything and a lot: "Produce and give us for any money."
MLRS HIMARS, SAM Patriot, F-16 fighters, Tanks Abrams, drums Drones Reaper, counter-battery radar… The list goes on. Exactly the same requests are voiced by other European states. Give me weapons, otherwise we're done!
It is clear that it is physically impossible to carry out arms deliveries right now. Simply because modern weapons are quite complex complexes in production. It is impossible to sharply increase such production. But these are orders for manufacturers. This is an opportunity not only to create new jobs for Americans, but also to “treat” a seriously ill dollar.
Obviously, requests to sell weapons do not just appear in the minds of European politicians. American officials work well with these "heads". Nobody disputes their influence on European politics. Here is what The Washington Post writes about this:
“Like Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO but is considered a close partner of the alliance, countries close to Russia say they are in desperate need of more military assistance from the West.”
Well, let's assume that the Balts and Poles receive weapons, and then what? Who will work with these weapons? Estonian or Lithuanian army? All "three people"? Naturally, trained military personnel will be required to work with these weapons.
That is, along with weapons, soldiers and officers of the American army should arrive in these countries! Simply put, in the countries bordering Russia, NATO is simply obliged to create new military bases! American weapons - American military. German tanks - German tankers and so on ...
Not many people know, but only recently the number of American troops in Europe, according to the same The Washington Post, has increased by 20 thousand people. Today, nearly 100 Americans serve in Europe. And the main forces are located just on the eastern flank of the alliance!
Another quote from the same article in WP is appropriate here. It is appropriate precisely as an example of the strategic thinking of Americans.
“But for the countries located at the very borders of Russia, this is still not enough. The military investments made over the past six months are gratefully received, but leaders in the region believe the alliance needs to be more assertive in the long term."
But why do the Poles and the Balts need all this fuss with weapons and NATO military bases? The explanation about the danger of an attack by Russia or Belarus does not hold water. Even for a Westerner. What is the reason for the desire to see Americans on their land?
Alas, everything is quite banal. Money! Money as an incentive to keep their own population in their country. It is no secret that today in the countries of Eastern Europe there is a process of population flow to the West. I would say this: the “law of throwing away unnecessary things” operates. Remember the path of trash to the trash heap - house-garage-cottage-garbage can.
Approximately the same is happening with the population of the Baltic States and Poland. The population rather quickly “flows into the countries of “old Europe” and is replaced by Ukrainians and representatives of other peoples, or the lands simply remain uninhabited. This process can be stopped only by creating jobs with decent wages. Foreign military bases are just the opportunity to create such jobs.
I really want to become "the beloved wife of the master"
There is another reason why, to a greater extent, the Poles are very "afraid of the Russian attack." For some reason, the politicians of the Eastern European countries decided that Washington's attention to their country is an indicator of the state's success. The more attention, the higher the country's weight in European politics.
Which Europeans are interested in the Baltics today? Well, there are some Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Well, some people live there. They do something. But nobody cares. There is nothing to see there, you don’t want to relax on the coast of the cold sea. The only thing that attracts is cheap alcohol and, sorry for the juicy detail, cheap whores. Poland is in roughly the same position.
For Poland today, it is extremely important to “be the beloved wife of the master” from the United States. The supply of American weapons, the deployment of American units on Polish territory is, according to the Polish authorities, an indicator that it is Poland, and not Germany and Britain, that is the main European ally of the United States today. "The haberdasher and the cardinal" in its classic form.
It must be admitted that Washington really recognizes today the leading role of Warsaw in Eastern Europe. It follows that it is extremely important for the Poles to continue to act in this direction. Especially now, when interest in Ukraine is falling.
Naturally, the question arises as to whether there will be American arms supplies to Poland and the Baltic states. The answer, in light of the recognition of Poland's leading role in Eastern Europe, is obvious. Deliveries will be. Moreover, the Poles and the Balts will receive American weapons in the first place.
When? There is no answer to this question yet. But the fact that this will happen much earlier than the countries of Central and Western Europe receive the same supplies is already clear. The only thing that could theoretically hold back the United States is concern for the security of Europe.
It is clear that the supply of American weapons to the Baltic countries and Poland will not go unnoticed in Russia. Moscow will take retaliatory steps to neutralize the danger. And this is a direct way to increase the likelihood of a military conflict in the region. The presence of a large number of weapons in the absence of mechanisms for the rapid resolution of disputes is always extremely dangerous.
I have a feeling that Europe does not think about the security of its citizens at all. I'm not talking about the Americans. The example of Ukraine has taught the Europeans nothing. We've been "harnessing" for a really long time. Sometimes too long. But we drive fast. So fast that we can only be stopped where we decided to go.
Intermediate results of the confrontation between Russia and NATO
In fact, it would be possible to complete the material with just one phrase, worn out to holes. To whom is war, and to whom is mother dear. If not for the nuances. A small victorious war in Ukraine was quite consistent with the plans of the West. It is clear that no one expected a complete victory for Kyiv. A simple agreement on non-intervention in the war in the Donbass would be enough.
Then faith in Russia, in its strength would turn into dust. No one in the world will support a country with great ambitions and meager opportunities. But it so happened that even with the global support of the West, Ukraine is defeated and is on the verge of collapse. It turned out that Russia's resources are sufficient to wage a serious war in the long run.
It's a paradox, but the West, with its mighty, relative to Russia, economy is not able to conduct serious military operations for a long time. The arsenals are empty and no new additions are foreseen. Today, the same Americans are actively working to "collect" the remnants of Soviet weapons and ammunition where they are still preserved. In a real military confrontation, the West is losing.
Of course, for some time we will observe the agony of Ukraine. There will be senseless casualties among the civilian population and the military. But American interest has already been lost. Now that sphere of struggle becomes more important, where they always feel themselves winners. Economy and ideology!
Thus, the confrontation will be moved north of Ukraine. Namely, the Baltic States and Poland. The US will try to return the situation to the status quo. On the verge of a "hot war", but without crossing this line. Both we and the Americans will again begin to replenish our arsenals and scare each other with the weapons of the opposing side.
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