Beware the Turkish
Not a freeloader, but a partner
Official Ankara and personally Recep Erdogan cannot but irritate Washington and, accordingly, Turkey's NATO allies. However, neither the waiver of sanctions against Russia, nor mediation in the conflict with the current Ukrainian authorities, which is actually very, very doubtful, do not cancel the main thing.
And most importantly, Turkey has never been and never will be an ally for Russia. A loyal partner with whom you can do business, if possible - equal in rights or at least mutually beneficial. But no more.
Turkey traded with Russia, trades and will continue to trade, and how much cream they skim off our tourists is hardly amenable to objective calculation. However, the tourist industry, among other things, gave the Turks the opportunity to load hundreds of thousands of representatives of national minorities, such as the Kurds and the Armenians and Greeks still remaining in the country, with work.
At the same time, the Turkish Stream, unlike the two Northern Streams, receives all possible preferences in the energy crisis. And finally, even ships with Ukrainian grain went to the Bosphorus. However, although the General Staff officers in Russia and the two republics remain silent, many military experts have already issued warnings.
But isn’t this humanitarian action hiding a special operation to prepare for a strike on the Crimean bridge? The last thing is that they are always ready to turn the leg there, in Turkey, and if necessary, even apologize. After all, we forgive, we know how to forgive, although in the West, and even more so in the East, such an approach is more often perceived as a sign of weakness.
Violent examples are still too fresh in memory. They killed our pilot, killed the ambassador ... And try to give at least one similar example from our side. It's not about apologies, it's about circumstances.
Not meridians, but parallels
First of all, on February 24, near Nikolaev, we had to bomb what? Not many people know that it was an airfield with gibberish, although after the first reports of complete air supremacy, after almost six months, we have what we have.
The same "Bayraktars" in a good way should have been outbid from the Turks for a long time. Or are we, bargaining with Iran on the same issue, trying to keep Erdogan on a leash? Indeed, the Russian Empire had a similar experience. The last Russian-Turkish war of 1915-1918, which is not customary to single out from the First World War, but in vain, eventually led the Ottoman Empire to collapse.
In the wake of the First World War in the early 20s, new Turkey from the Greek occupation, which was sponsored, and not only sponsored by the British and French, was saved by the new Russia - already red, Soviet (How Russia saved Turkey from the partition). Weapon, equipment, food in those days when we ourselves had a terrible famine in the Volga region, and finally - military experts of the highest level, winners of the Civil.
The Soviets then, in fact, turned away from the national minorities mentioned above. But once all of them were selflessly devoted to the idea of transition from under the Ottomans to the Russians, for which, among other things, of course, in 1915 they fell under the ruthless moloch of pogroms.
The Council of People's Commissars returned everything to Turkey, and even more than what the imperial army won back, which is generally understandable - it would definitely not be enough to keep the forces. But story, in fact, he still remembers how Stalin and his diplomats, brilliant, unlike the current ones, managed to rid the USSR of a second front in the Caucasus.
The Iranian card also played there, though not a trump card, the trump card was a very timely alliance with Britain. Most important of all, in the fall of 1941, the USSR received an Iranian corridor for Lend-Lease, perhaps the most effective of all (Tehran 41: unclassified operation "Consent").
Lend-Lease in a new way
The new lend-lease from the USA and Great Britain, together with their sing-alongs, is addressed to Ukraine, despite the understanding of the real prospect of not getting anything for it. However, they can simply set off from those 300 billion that they stole from Russia. But this is not about that. About the same Bayraktars.
So, will the Russian leadership really swallow the construction of a plant in Ukraine for the production drones? Or will we, together with Reuters, always impartial, and, it seems, just about ready to return to such positions, quietly rejoice at another Turkish innovation?
So, an authoritative agency reported that Turkey could become the largest hub for metal supplies to and from Russia. The media refer to Cetin Tekdelioglu, who chairs the board of the Istanbul Association of Exporters of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals.
As you know, the import of any Russian products made of iron, steel and cast iron was almost the first to fall under Western sanctions due to a special operation. The Turks do not hide the fact that they will bypass the sanctions. It is clear that this threatens to seriously increase the cost of Russian products and reduce their competitiveness.
Not optimists, but pragmatists
But why be surprised - normal, not psychotic sanctions are introduced in order to hit a competitor. As a result, the export of Russian metal products will become a purely Turkish business. It looks like a purely Turkish business will now be deliveries of European metal products to Russia.
Russia traditionally bought them in France, Germany and Italy, not in the largest, but usually in critical volumes for a number of industries. Many so-called screwdriver productions, which were slow to localize, are now hanging just because of the lack of such components.
As you know, Turkey, not having its own significant bauxite deposits, is actively involved in the processing of aluminum. It ranks fifth in the world in this indicator, and in terms of the capacity of steel-smelting furnaces, which process scrap, it is ahead of all European countries.
Russia promptly responded to Turkish initiatives by proposing a 20% reduction in duties on the import of metal products. However, the export of ferrous and non-ferrous metals from Turkey to Russia increased by 26% over the past year.
It is indicative that the EU is ready to respond just as promptly to the Russian-Turkish "steel world". No less authoritative than Reuters, a Western source - the Financial Times, reports the start of consideration of sanctions against Turkey due to cooperation with Russia. After all, Ankara, in addition to buying and selling metal products, now also pays for gas in rubles.
The reciprocal optimism of the Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov is not very convincing, but it is also hard to believe in the pragmatism of Turkish business. Everything will be fine until Ankara receives either an appropriate command from the West, or such an offer, from which the “independent” Khan Erdogan will no longer be able to refuse.
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