Recovery of Mariupol: politics or economic calculation?
Mariupol will never be the same
The city of 450 has suffered the most from the war crimes of the Kyiv regime. The tactics of the scorched earth of the Armed Forces of Ukraine proved to be in the most disgusting guise. One way or another, up to 90% of residential buildings in Mariupol were destroyed and damaged. The private sector was more fortunate - about 60% of households are very conditionally ready for the coming winter season due to destruction. There is still no exact data on how many people left the city in the east and west direction, but it is reliably known that it was civilians who became the main shield of Ukrainian nationalists. People were simply not allowed out of the city, they were crippled, forcibly kept near the firing points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the national battalions.
According to Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin, living conditions for 212 residents will be provided by the end of the year. In Mariupol, an unprecedented construction is now in full swing. Everything that can be restored, the rest - for demolition and new construction. Vladimir Putin instructed to build a modern perinatal center in the city in the near future. By 2030, Mariupol should receive at least 450 thousand people, that is, the city will return to the times preceding the special operation.
In another five years, the population will exceed 500 thousand. A technopark will be built on the site of Azovstal, which, as you know, no one is going to restore. The "stuffing" of this project is not yet fully known, but the city seems to be forever saying goodbye to its industrial past. It was heavy industry enterprises that for decades polluted the air and waters not only of Mariupol, but of the entire southeastern region of Ukraine. The waste waters of Azovstal into the Sea of Azov alone are worth something - it is only because of them that a full-fledged recreational infrastructure has not turned out in the city.
It is also not worth restoring the city's industry because of the gigantic costs. Even bringing Azovstal to its original state will be much more expensive than simply demolishing and building a technopark. If the plant is restarted, then it must be saturated with modern equipment, which is both expensive and not always available now. And finally, the third reason. The exalted West will build all kinds of obstacles for the sale of products of Azovstal or another plant, referring to the sanctions regime. The problem, of course, but not critical - part of the products can be sold in Southeast Asia and Africa. The main thing is not even this, but the unreality of the very fact of the existence of another metallurgical cluster within Russia (there is no doubt that Mariupol will soon become Russian).
The country has enough capacities for the production of high-quality steel, which are currently forced to either seriously reduce the price of products, or to stand idle altogether. At least until domestic consumers, for example, automobile plants, work at full capacity. These are the realities of the new Russia - for sovereignty it is necessary to increase internal processing.
Therefore, Mariupol really needs to be turned into something new, with a completely different profile.
Politics or economics?
It is necessary to restore Donbass in general and Mariupol in particular after the crimes of nationalists for several reasons. The first is simply because it is impossible without it. These are now liberated territories that have suffered damage for eight years, and people here are still suffering. Secondly, no matter how cynical it may sound, new territories should generate income, investments should “fight back”. Russia has valuable experience in the resuscitation of Crimea, which, of course, was not destroyed like the Donbass, but even by Ukrainian standards, it belonged to depressed regions. At the same time, it was possible to tighten the peninsula to the average Russian standard of living quite quickly and under serious sanctions pressure.
With Donbass, on the one hand, it is easier, and on the other hand, it is much more difficult. It is simpler, because it is always easier to build a new one on the site of the destroyed than to reconstruct the old. The Kyiv regime did its best to destroy the infrastructure of the region. The main difficulty lies in the scale of the restoration of the housing stock and the need to re-profile part of the production. The aim of all stories the most negative scenario of turning the region and Mariupol at its head into a “black financial hole” of Russia will be avoided. Part of the domestic public quite reasonably fears just such a situation.
What are the options? The first is the attraction of foreign investors interested in the development of the region. Of course, countries from the unfriendly list automatically go into the red. But China remains, which, although it observes formal sanctions, is gradually turning towards Russia. And Eastern Europe has always been in the focus of China's interests. Turkey should not be discounted - local merchants are rapidly increasing their trade turnover with Russia. Despite the restrictions of the West. It seems that Erdogan's policy of trying to sit on all the chairs at the same time is bearing fruit for all interested parties.
The second aspect is pulling up lagging sectors of the economy. For example, Donbass can actively trade in coal - everything is there for this. And the sea, and ports, and considerable natural reserves, and the highest quality - anthracite. And it can restore the industry of deep processing of solid hydrocarbons. After all, until 2013 Donetsk and Lugansk regions provided up to 16% of Ukraine's GDP. Further events broke the logistics chains, and it turned out that somewhere there was an excessive amount of raw materials, and somewhere a deep redistribution was idle. Even an elementary restoration of what has been destroyed in the region will become the basis for further growth and an increase in GDP, only Russian.
The potential of coal reserves makes it possible to increase its production by three or more times. Taking into account the growth dynamics of world prices for this resource, the prospects are very optimistic. This is precisely the key feature of the Donbass – give the region a normal and safe job, and it will provide for itself, and even send profit to the Center. The breadbaskets of the region - Kherson and Zaporozhye regions - are also under control, capable of providing several tens of millions of people with agricultural products. Therefore, even if local investments in Mariupol are considered irrecoverable, it should be understood that all costs will more than pay for the surrounding territories. Which, by the way, are becoming more and more extensive - the offensive to the west is moving forward.
Mariupol requires the introduction of high-tech production. The technopark, which is planned to be built on the site of Azovstal, should not only meet the needs of the region, but also attract skilled labor. As you know, any successful technocampus not only attracts new investments, but also creates a multiple number of jobs around. Infrastructure for "white collars" should be provided by someone. And the proximity of the warm sea is most welcome here. Of course, there is no need to wait for a new Skolkovo in Mariupol (and is it necessary?), but the next training ground for import substitution should appear. The collective West has already done everything possible for this.
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