When Russia will start a special operation for real
Speed and pressure are the soul of real war.
Politics is a rotten egg.
Let's ask one extremely uncomfortable question - why in the special operation in Ukraine Russia behaves relatively "galantly", allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to receive (albeit partially) weaponwithout inflicting significant blows on decision-making centers, infrastructure? Yes, our rockets and artillery inflict huge damage on the enemy! But there are still some red lines.
Here is the opinion of O. Tsarev, a former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, who warned us about the attack on Donbass:
Our intentions are good and full of humanity - there is no need to create complete chaos there. But everyone (!) feels that in all this stories something is wrong. The Russian army, the second in the ranking of the strongest armies in the world after the United States, cannot be constrained in its actions by the enemy army, which occupies only (!) 22nd place. And the Ukrainian territory cannot be the “Mannerheim Line” in all places (and that one was taken), there must be weak points - and our intelligence is well aware of this.
And if Moscow has been following the red lines since 1985, then they are not written for the West. However, in fact, stretching the time of the special operation multiplies the losses of the parties, and lethal weapons - (MLRS) HIMARS are still being delivered!
According to the director of the Institute for Political Studies, Sergei Markov:
Perhaps the political scientist is harsh, but there is a problem. According to military expert Mikhail Khodarenok:
It is very reasonable, indeed now in the Donbass it is “grinding” and the most combat-ready part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already failed. But in terms of supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we see a “phoenix effect” due to NATO supplies, while the stretching of time allows us to constantly replenish the combat strength, albeit with forces of poorer quality.
Need a middle ground
1. The supply of groups is being carried out, which are even in a semi-encirclement. The main scourge of the special operation is Avdiivka, which is located on a hill. On June 13, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out the most powerful shelling of Donetsk in the entire conflict, including M777 guns (USA) and French Caesars, which reached the front line through Poland and Romania (!). Finally, there is a shift here too - the armed formations of the DPR took it into a semi-circle, the batteries of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to be more effectively suppressed. The stockpiles of chemicals, which cannot be destroyed, and the fortifications at the plant itself also prevent a strike on Avdiivka.
2. But there are also economic reasons, and they probably dominate. The coking plant is the largest in Europe, and, in addition to Akhmetov, the interests of other foreign investors may be involved there.
3. As you know, Roman Abramovich in March came under the sanctions of Great Britain and the European Union. However, around March 23, US President Joe Biden removed him from sanctions at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in advance, since he was assigned the role of mediator in the negotiations in Istanbul, which took place on March 29. And they want to scale this successful example. The West is pushing the idea of giving Russian businessmen the opportunity to “pay off the sanctions” by sending money to help Ukraine. Allegedly, such a proposal was made by the Deputy Minister of Finance of Canada, Chrystia Freeland, after a preliminary discussion (!) Of her idea with the "Russian oligarchs".
4. As Zbigniew Brzezinski said:
It is enough to replace the word "nuclear" with "military". Moreover, we are talking about a much larger amount. According to the Boston Consulting Group, in 2014 alone, the volume of funds withdrawn by residents of the Russian Federation to offshore reached about $2 trillion.
5. There is evidence that the use of Western weapons allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct a fairly effective counteraction to the Russian army. In particular, military correspondent Oleksandr Sladkov stated in his Telegram channel that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) have recently delivered effective strikes against Russian decision-making centers (!).
6. And here is the message of I. Strelkov:
7. As early as April 14, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that the United States does not see Russia trying to interrupt the flow of American weapons entering Ukraine:
After this fact was announced in Mikhalkov's Besogon, reports began to appear in the media that warehouses were broken, cargo, bridges, etc. were destroyed. There were also explanations why it was difficult to stop deliveries: the Russian Federation does not want to violate the integrity of the railways, since this will make it impossible for the population to leave the zone of operation, paralyze civilian supplies; cargoes are delivered disguised under the flag of the Red Cross, a mixed composition of civilian and military purposes is drawn up, which cannot be hit.
In fact, arms deliveries are certainly being destroyed, the question is in what proportion. The paradox is that if these deliveries were destroyed "under the root" - they would simply stop. And Kirby clearly hints at this. So, politics is a rotten egg.
According to (17.06) the Kremlin spokesman, the main goal of the operation is to ensure the safety of the inhabitants of Donbass "from the barbaric shelling of the Kyiv military." And this goal has not been achieved: the shelling does not stop. Moreover, the impudent enemy in his madness is hatching plans for a counteroffensive, the return of the southeastern lands, attacks on the Crimean bridge, etc. Where does all this come from?
The answer is simple - Western help is coming, and Ukraine, having found its calling in the role of an obliging serf, feels the help of a giant octopus. But the mongrels of the West understand only strength, and only a powerful defeat can force Ukraine to change its plans.
Now about the extremely surprising US forecasts regarding the pace of the operation, made on the eve of the special operation - in February 2022:
And even the head of the US Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, during closed hearings in Congress, said that in the event of Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine, Kyiv would fall in 3 days.
Perhaps society underestimates the real consequences of Istanbul. We made another gift to the West and Kyiv by withdrawing troops from it. At that time, all the media actively wrote that we would send these forces to the Donbass to wage the main battle - the so-called "Donetsk arc", but we have not yet seen massive actions. In fact, the reason may be different.
Our oligarchic elite and the "fifth column", suffering huge losses from the "economic iron curtain", experiencing constant pressure from their Western partners, fearing an even greater deepening of sanctions, puts pressure on the Kremlin. And as long as our power depends on them, the constant "pulling" back and forth cannot be avoided. Our oligarchy will still have time to prove itself as a "real fifth column". But the government, which has grown up in cooperation with them, does not yet understand this. But you can expect anything from them. However, the logic of the development of the situation may lead to the mass disappearance of this class - the nationalization of raw materials is inevitable.
- said the press secretary of the President Peskov.
Now let us present the assessments of a number of military experts of the negative consequences of the withdrawal of our troops:
And the second assessment is regarding the fettering of the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the use of the forces of the Russian Federation:
Yes, we won a really huge victory - we took Mariupol, starved out Azovstal - we advanced from the flanks, and this is a great success. Victory is close, but we need to take the Donbass into a dense encirclement, and this step is still (!) not.
It is obvious that the original plan was Plan A (the beginning of a special operation), and the pace of the operation in Ukraine was more understandable. Who knows why the first commander left, perhaps he could not support the "Istanbul" option - plan B.
Why can't we ensure peace in Donbas yet?
There is the following hypothesis. The parties observe some red lines, but the West has been constantly “throwning” us, at least since 1985. V. Putin back in December 2021 said that Moscow was "pinned" to the red lines, and she had nowhere else to retreat. The holding of negotiations on grain and fertilizers in the same Istanbul and the slowdown in Europe's decision to completely refuse Russian gas clearly show that there are red lines! The US has not completely cut us off from the “dollar” (!), there are banks that make transactions. Ukraine is not supplied with certain types of weapons. Kyiv has not yet committed sabotage on Russian territory, and we do not see any strikes on Crimea. But at the same time, there are no agreements on NATO expansion, which was the reason for the onset of the crisis, when Moscow first delivered an ultimatum and later resorted to a special military operation.
But then, when our troops showed unprecedented power in the first weeks of the special operation, while occupying vast territories, we were invited to Istanbul and, as in Minsk in 2014, we were offered new red lines. Perhaps we were on the verge of Minsk-3, but only the extremely negative reaction of the Russian society and the fanaticism of Zelensky prevented this.
And we again comply with them, curtailing the scale of the special operation, not realizing that all this will be used against us. Or yielding by inertia, as we have become accustomed to since 1985. Let us recall the historic meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, at which the decision on the NMD was made. So how many of its members offered options - first to notify US President Biden about the decision of the Russian Federation, live in front of the whole country? The US does not have any red lines - that is why they are pumping weapons into Ukraine, and sooner or later this may give a result. If we do not understand, there is simply nothing to be afraid of.
What will be our next push? There must be some event "H" or the achievement of some action on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will make the "Russian bear" wake up and tear his enemies with strong paws. And these enemies are Ukrainian "demons" who have broken through to power. One of the options is the supply of Hymers systems. And the second is a possible major armed provocation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will bring us tangible losses.
And here are the new news - NATO in the coming months as a priority intends to increase the supply of (MLRS) HIMARS, and the greater our success, the greater will be support for NATO. And after that, as on February 24, we will have to enter a new orbit, breaking a new level of red lines.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on July 7 that Russia has not yet begun to show what it is capable of.
And this is 100% fact.
Russia acts with varying severity, avoiding massive contact, focusing on remote strikes and showing maximum diplomacy, relying on the turn of the situation and "probing" the possibility of gradual success.
We do not yet have goals for the restoration of the empire, although the course of history pushes us in this direction. If we liberate a significant part of Ukraine (Plan A) - and then annex it to Russia, the West will perceive this as an attempt to restore the empire - which is like a red rag to a bull. And we do not know what to expect from them in this case. And the operation is still (!) Protracted. But if the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine crumbles, we will not lose ours.
According to Oleg Tsarev, some Russian officials are interested in our controlled defeat, trying to maintain their power!
... It is necessary to control the defeat in the war, concessions to the West, which will allow us to return the status quo, and therefore retain power ...
In such a situation, the old elites ... are trying with all their might to prevent the early end of hostilities by defeating the enemy ...
Therefore, we do not freeze Western assets, which would be a logical and symmetrical response to Western financial and economic sanctions. We continue to pay debts to "unfriendly countries".
(Quote dated May 12.05.2022, XNUMX).
Back in April, military commander Alexander Sladkov put forward his concept of achieving a complete victory in Ukraine:
First: to wage a slow war, stammering about each village, but moving forward (a year, two?). <…>
The second option is assault. That is, the mobilization of all forces for a decisive blow. And here - what is more rational? A long war against 20 countries, the economic leaders of the world, or a quick solution ...
Well, and the maximum build-up of forces in Ukraine, in order to turn from a gallant musketeer into a hero Ilya Muromets with a huge club. This club should beat, not lie down.
In his mind, this is a tripling of the combat potential in Ukraine.
And here is Ramzan Kadyrov's address to the President dated March 4:
So, when will Russia finally start a special operation for real? Soon at the door...
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