Military Review

Hot October for the post-Soviet space: parliamentary elections in Georgia, Lithuania and Ukraine

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Hot October for the post-Soviet space: parliamentary elections in Georgia, Lithuania and UkraineNote: the material was prepared before the announcement of the preliminary results of the elections in Lithuania

October 2012 of the year is a truly hot month on the territory of the former Soviet Union. Immediately in the three former Soviet Republics, elections of deputies of parliaments are scheduled: elections in Georgia, as we know, have already taken place, in Lithuania at the time of the preparation of the material, voting for elections to the Seym is underway, Ukrainian citizens will show their preferences for one or another party in late October.

If you try to draw certain parallels in the indicated states that are more than 20 years de jure independent, a fairly obvious tendency can be traced: the current government is losing elections or seriously losing ground compared to previous polls. So it was in Georgia in early October, so probably (at least, sociological polls are talking about it) will be in Lithuania and Ukraine.

According to surveys conducted by the Lithuanian Courier, the first places after the announcement of the election results in this Baltic country can be left-wing and center-left parties. In particular, the first three places on the basis of parliamentary elections are given to such political forces as the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (Social Democratic Party of Lithuania), the Labor Party, as well as Order and Justice. Today, the SDPL faction in the Lithuanian Diet has 25 seats from 141 (after the elections of 2004, they were 20). In the new Seimas, most likely, the SDPL may receive more mandates, as evidenced by opinion polls.

The Lithuanian elections are one of their nuances reminiscent of the elections in Georgia that recently ended in opposition triumph. The fact is that one of the left-centrist parties here is headed by a very wealthy man - Viktor Uspaskich. Today, his property is valued at more than 50 million dollars. Yes, not billions of Bidzina Ivanishvili, of course, but ... It is noteworthy that not so long ago, Viktor Uspaskich, like Bidzina Ivanishvili, turned into a disgraced oligarch-politician.

Uspaskich in Lithuania was accused of concealing income and tax evasion. It makes one think that such accusations to Viktor Uspaskich were brought at the very moment when he decided to visit Moscow in his business affairs. Such a trip and intra-Lithuanian accusations of the machinations of Uspaskys in the financial field could put an end to his political career. The fact is that the Labor Party won the first place in the 2004 elections of the year, gaining more than 27% of the votes of Lithuanian voters, however, the current authorities did not like this situation, which resulted in the “democratic” accusations of Uspaskichs of tax evasion and “secret connections with Moscow. As a result, in the elections to the Seimas 2008 of the Year, the Labor Party showed much less impressive results - the strategy of the usual “democratic” black PR worked for the current Lithuanian authorities in the right direction. But today they say that the Labor Party has an excellent chance to win a sufficient number of seats in the Lithuanian Sejm and celebrate a kind of revenge. Moreover, the Labor Party and the SDPL can create a left-wing parliamentary bloc and “seize” the Lithuanian Sejm, if, of course, the democratic authorities of the country that are oriented exclusively to the West do not have time to put sticks into the wheels of their opponents.

If the political success of Uspaskich and his political power in Lithuania is witnessed, then we can clearly speak about a very specific tendency traced in elections in countries that were once Soviet Republics: dominated by slogans aimed at solving social problems and restoring partnerships with The Russian Federation, are people who, one way or another, are connected with Russia. Bidzina Ivanishvili made a fortune on the basis of the Russian mining industry. Victor Uspaskikh was born in the Arkhangelsk region and in Lithuania he was initially engaged in the construction of a gas transmission system, and then he discovered a company for the production of agricultural products.

In general, both Uspaskichsky and Ivanishvili are not poor people, people definitely related to Russia. And if Ivanishvili already celebrates his victory in parliamentary elections and distributes ministerial portfolios, then Viktor Uspaskikh in Lithuania also has a chance for tangible success (not as deafening as the Georgian Dream in Georgia, but also not unimportant), if opinion polls conducted in this country, they are close to general electoral moods.

It is worth recalling that in the Lithuanian Seym there is an 141 chair, and in order to take several deputy seats, it is necessary to overcome the 5% barrier.

At the level of passing in Lithuania, the Liberal Movement balances, which can dial from 5 to 8% of the vote. It is noteworthy that the Lithuanian liberals see the development of Lithuania exclusively in the movement along the Western course - close integration with the EU, bringing liberal European values ​​into the traditional Lithuanian culture (with same-sex marriages, parades far from workers and peasants), however, like the winners of the 2008 sample elections of the year - Lithuanian Christian Democrats - the Lithuanian Liberal Movement has virtually no chance of serious success. They, certainly, can get to the Diet, but already, most likely, as minority rights. According to a sociological poll conducted by the Baltijos tyrimai agency in the second half of September, Christian Democrats can get no more than 8% of votes in elections. Compared with the previous vote (2008 of the year), when the same party, integrated with the so-called "Union of the Fatherland" received 45 seats in the Seimas of the Republic, this can be considered a real failure.

In general, the current authorities, apparently, may lose parliamentary weight, which clearly indicates that the policies of these authorities are less and less impressive for Lithuanian citizens. One can talk endlessly about European integration, but in such conditions, when the European Union itself goes over to use the printing press frankly to delay the default of some debtor states, hoping that Lithuanian economic "successes" will be overwhelmingly welcome in Brussels - a clear mistake. The time is gone when the main base for getting votes was a frankly pro-Western vector. The time is running out when, on the mere words about the "intrigues" of Russia and its "imperial" ambitions, one could enter the parliament on a white horse and in a laurel wreath. People began to realize that their well-being practically does not depend in any way on the degree of involvement of the country in which they live in European financial life. The West has received from the same Lithuania what it has always wanted - separation from Russia with the help of promises of golden mountains in the form of numerous loans, patting on the shoulder in terms of “one year” democratic aspirations in the post-Soviet republics. But today, the approvals for the same Lithuanians are nice, but you will not be fed up with them, you cannot receive affordable fuel and electricity from them, unfortunately for Vilnius, too. So, Lithuanian voters have to make a new choice, which, at least, makes it possible to adjust the political and economic course.

In this regard, we should expect certain political changes in our other neighbors. Speech about Ukraine. If we consider that in the parliamentary elections of 2007, the victory was celebrated by Viktor Yanukovych’s party, which gained more than 34% of votes, today opinion polls in Ukraine show that the Party of Regions can significantly lose its position. If the parliamentary elections in Ukraine were held today, the ruling party could receive no more than 22% of votes. In other words, minus 12% over 5 years. This eloquently testifies to the fact that in Ukraine the voters are also dissatisfied with the policy pursued by the current authorities. With a decrease in the standard of living over the past few years, the current president didn’t really decide in which direction the political and economic vector of Ukraine was aimed. There are endless conversations about European integration, a reluctance to join the Customs Union with Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia is demonstrated, but at the same time, Yanukovych continues to talk about some economic preferences from his large eastern neighbor. The President of Ukraine is occupied by a half position, which does not provide a serious opportunity for constructive dialogue. This obviously worries those Ukrainian citizens who are wholly and completely for the continuation of rapprochement with Brussels, and those who are fighting for economic integration with CIS partners. It turns out that the “Party of Regions” has not justified the hopes of either one or the other. Will she have time to find a way out in the next couple of weeks - the question is ...

As a result, it is worth noting that the October elections in the post-Soviet space can underline the fact that the people of Georgia, Lithuania and Ukraine are waiting for political and economic changes, and for this they have already voted or are ready to vote for the forces opposing the current authorities.
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  1. Captain Vrungel
    Captain Vrungel 15 October 2012 08: 40
    +5
    PR-will she have time to find a way out? And there are naive people who believe in shitty elections? Well-fed sociologists of all stripes unanimously show that with the massive loss of popularity of the Party of Regions, its rating is growing. The admin resource is fully enabled. At the polling stations, only representatives of the Party of Regions and other parties, loyal suppliers of prostitutes. Mass refusal of candidates to participate in elections in favor of a candidate from the regions. (Threats, bribery, promises). Developed and improved system "fuck", "kidalovo".
    Suddenly, from the realm of fantasy, the "opposition" won. What we have? Nothing good. It's just a rotation of some crooks for another twenty years, hanging out with varying success at the trough of power.
    Everything is like in the song "Elections, elections. Pido deputies ...".
  2. Magadan
    Magadan 15 October 2012 11: 03
    +5
    Recently, I often think about Ukraine. On the one hand, I would like a "strong hand" with a clear and concrete policy to appear there, like Putin, Lukashenko, Nazarbayev, but on the other hand, it seems to me that Ukraine, right among its citizens, in the sense that so far in brains of people, gives rise to some kind of new worldview. I would like it to be something like the idea of ​​Kievan Rus of the model of Monomakh or Yaroslav the Wise. Those. and the country is strong and the people are free, able to kick up on the thieving bureaucrats and boyars. I don’t know where such thoughts come from, I myself haven’t been there for a long time, just my friends constantly rush there.
  3. Captain Vrungel
    Captain Vrungel 15 October 2012 11: 55
    +5
    Ukraine is like a lake filled with clean springs. But there was a political catastrophe. A stream of faeces poured into the lake, floating on the surface, spewing out a stench and poisoning the water. It takes time and money to build a wastewater treatment plant. So far, the flow of feces is increasing, and not only of our own, but also of those expelled from Russia. Kiselevs, Shusters, etc. polit. the outcasts have found their niche here. The combers of show business rushed to "earn money" in all TV shows. The whiny Resnik appeared. Poor, beggar, offended by everyone and is already preparing a program for his anniversary. The ticket prices are sky-high. (in Moscow I would have cooked an order of magnitude less). But what killed him was the way he walked through the hall of the Ukraine Palace and, with such flattery and servility, tenderly blew the dust from Yanukovych's viewer chair.
    What else to talk about. Flies know what to land.
  4. Egoza
    Egoza 15 October 2012 13: 10
    +3
    OL disappointed many. It's true! And although they introduced a truncated law on the Russian language, they did not fight back Zap. Ukraine! And there this law is not recognized at the regional level. He "does not work" for them. And the local leaders do not even think that by not recognizing this law, they are blocking the way for the Hungarian, Romanian, Rusyn languages. the right of people to teach children in their own language. The publication of history textbooks continues, where the UPA and the modern Nazi party "Svoboda" are glorified, and all this is funded by budget funds, and despite the ban of the Ministry of Education on the use of textbooks not approved by the ministry. For this, the Nazis are ready to hang Minister Tabachnik for this, or at least remove him from office. In my opinion, of the leading people, he is the only one who really fights both for a true story and for regional languages.
    Yesterday a demonstration in honor of the UPA took place in Kiev, of course, with Svoboda in front. Banderites were taken from all over Ukraine. And in Lviv, in general, they celebrated three days! only the communists held an anti-Bandera rally at the same time. But the police are "watching" - they did not allow clashes! What the authorities happily report. In addition, "Freedom" has teamed up with the "Blow" party of our dear boxer Klitschko! for him, as he said, the heroes of the UPA mean more than the heroes and veterans of the Second World War! Scum !!!! Well, Tymoshenko's party is with them. This is the kind of opposition formed. Unfortunately, many are going to vote for Klitschko, regardless of who he is pulling behind him. It's good that people, turning their backs on the PR, want to vote for the communists. At least they keep their promises. In any case, the autumn after the elections will be HOT!
    1. artem772
      artem772 15 October 2012 14: 41
      +1
      ... vote for the communists. They at least keep their promises ...


      How naive are you .....
    2. Skavron
      Skavron 15 October 2012 16: 15
      +1
      Yes, I respected Klitschko as a boxer, but now and as a boxer he disgusts me.
      Neither their own people, nor goals, nor programs ... and a dubious alliance with the Nazis.
      Many of my friends, just do are going to ignore the elections, as such, because they do not see those for whom you can vote.
      1. wax
        wax 15 October 2012 16: 36
        +2
        But you don’t need to ignore it, because ignore is usually mutual.
      2. omsbon
        omsbon 15 October 2012 19: 45
        0
        Quote: Skavron
        I respected Klitschko as a boxer, but now and as a boxer he disgusts me.

        You can ask about Klitschko a little more, I do not know what and how.
  5. Egoza
    Egoza 15 October 2012 16: 43
    +3
    Indeed, it is necessary to go to the elections, at least so that the "unused" ballot paper is not assigned to the "necessary" person.
  6. Egoza
    Egoza 15 October 2012 21: 20
    +2
    Quote: omsbon
    about Klitschko a little more


    Klitschko created his party "UDAR" (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms ") originally it was defined as center-left, liberal ... According to him, the party will focus only on achievable goals, among which 5 main directions. In particular, we are talking about the elimination of corruption, establishing citizens' control over the state, building a country of equal opportunities, giving power to local communities and achieving European living standards.
    “These five points make up a strong fist, and we must strike,” he said.
    During the last months of propaganda of his party, he said that his party does NOT support the law on regional languages, everyone should speak only in Ukrainian, further that UPA veterans are closer to him than WWII veterans, well, etc. European opportunities and German paradise promise everyone
    It is worth noting that not only parties are going to BP, but also majoritarian candidates. Well, here the United Opposition (OO) decided to join forces with Klitschko, i.e. they withdraw their majority in the place where the NGOs gain more votes in their favor, respectively, the NGO withdraws the same number of their majority in favor of Klitschko. It is noteworthy that all those from the orange BYuT who did not find a place in the PA were included in his party. Familiar all faces.

    Sorry, but I can not add
    In Donbass, on the UPA march, nationalists fought for several hours "with drunk communists" (video) (video blocked, only news left (
    According to the participants in the march, the Communists and Cossacks were taken by bus
    A march in honor of the 70th anniversary of the UPA took place in Stakhanov, Lugansk region. The participants in the march were Stakhanov's Svoboda members and their fellow party members from neighboring cities, about 30 people in total. The march was accompanied by police officers, "Stakhanov" reports.
    The route was agreed in advance - from the bus station to the square to them. Stakhanov, where the participants intended to hold a solemn meeting. However, the Svoboda did not reach the square. On the street Representatives of the Communist Party and Cossacks attacked Lenin on nationalists. According to one of the participants in the march, Nikita Podgornyak, the Communists and Cossacks were obviously taken on buses, many attackers were drunk.
    Despite the police’s attempts to push the attackers away from the march, for several minutes on the street. Lenin had a brawl.
    “They took Ukrainian banners out of our hands and tore them up, they broke my camera, kicked and punched the participants,” says Nikita. According to him, the police and the “Berkut” unit managed to take the participants of the march into a ring, thereby pushing the attackers of the communists and Cossacks away from them. After that, the nationalists were put on a bus and taken to a safe distance. The planned meeting on the square named after Stakhanov never took place.
    1. omsbon
      omsbon 15 October 2012 23: 54
      +1
      Thanks a lot, Elena - Fidget!
      To admit honestly about the "blow" I heard out of my ear, now I can say that I was in vain rooting for the nickname. It is a pity the Cossacks were without checkers.
  7. VadimSt
    VadimSt 16 October 2012 03: 24
    +2
    Sorry, but I can not add
    In the Donbass, on the UPA march, nationalists fought for several hours "with drunk communists" (video) (video blocked, only news remained (
    According to the participants in the march, the Communists and Cossacks were taken by bus
    A march in honor of the 70th anniversary of the UPA took place in Stakhanov, Lugansk region. The participants in the march were Stakhanov's Svoboda members and their fellow party members from neighboring cities, about 30 people in total. The march was accompanied by police officers, "Stakhanov" reports.
    The route was agreed in advance - from the bus station to the square to them. Stakhanov, where the participants intended to hold a solemn meeting. However, the Svoboda did not reach the square. On the street Representatives of the Communist Party and Cossacks attacked Lenin on nationalists. According to one of the participants in the march, Nikita Podgornyak, the Communists and Cossacks were obviously taken on buses, many attackers were drunk.


    Without youtube!
    There was a man of 16 who decided to celebrate the UPA anniversary - a march past the central square of Stakhanov. The march was unambiguously custom-made, because at that time a rally of communists was planned and held in the central square (I’ll notice a city rally, and not with a transport from all over the region).
    Well, they marched from a kilometer along an empty street, but when they reached the central square they got (sorry a little) and scattered. It lasted from the force of 5 minutes - the police interfered. Now crap ... they write that everyone was drunk, etc. - fear has big eyes, so we will dig out your eyes in the Donbass.
    1. VadimSt
      VadimSt 16 October 2012 07: 53
      +1
      This is a comment on a post by Eroz
      1. omsbon
        omsbon 16 October 2012 11: 53
        +1
        Thank you, Vadim!
        About the eyes, a good idea!
  8. 12061973
    12061973 16 October 2012 18: 17
    +1
    The original was taken from puerrtto on October 2 a significant day in the blogosphere: the end of the era of custom reporting about Georgia
    We are all accustomed to the fact that in the blogosphere, with enviable popularity, joyful reports about the next Georgian projects are repeated: either they open a new Register, then the House of Justice, or some cool kindergarten. Remember my article a year ago "Excessive PR in Georgia, from which you begin to doubt their success." Frankly, this window dressing has always brought a smile. Can you imagine that some Belgium or Canada will begin to attract the attention of the world community to the opening of a new office building in Brussels, or the construction of a new bridge in Montreal? It's funny to you? Today I walk around Liverpool all day and wonder what will happen if the British start with such pomp and delight to celebrate the opening of some office for issuing passports, or the completion of a new metro station? Yes, here it is a routine that is not interesting to anyone except the builders themselves. Do you know why? Yes, simply because the government will fly off nafig if it does not meet the interests and aspirations of the British. Returning to Georgia, it becomes obvious that it is impossible to create a normal economy by mere ostentatious reportages and the construction of separate huts-registers.

    And the people of Georgia voted for "meat". The desire of a simple average marginal to be able to go to Moscow to work at a construction site prevailed over the fantasies and abstractions of Mikhail Saakashvili. This is sad, but alas, predictable.

    In 2011, when I was in Tbilisi, I expressed the idea that if Saakashvili was able to maintain power for at least another 7-10 years, then a rollback to the Sovka would never happen. A new generation of Georgian youth will simply grow up, who knows less about the USSR and Russia than the average Muscovite knows about Bangladesh. They did not reach a bit. The vast majority of Georgians aged 18-30 (of those I know) voted for Saakashvili. But their parents stubbornly voted for Ivanishvili, mindful of the stormy youth in blessed Moscow. I’d like to eat, dear comrades - that’s the idea that won, because people are banal tired of surviving on an average salary of 200 lari ($ 140) outside of Tbilisi. Neighbors in the region, Armenians and Azerbaijanis, meanwhile, freely ride to Russia for a long ruble.

    Yes, Georgians are waiting for the end of reforms and a return to the Russian system of legalized theft at all levels. Today I sat in a cafe with an acquaintance, he is an engineer at a local British company that makes equipment for drilling rigs. Their key partner is Gazprom. So, the guy said that he had just signed a contract for 50 million British pounds with the Russian gas giant. From this amount in the form of a "kickback" the Gazprom official took 20 million pounds, without this the contract would not have been signed. For several months the British pondered how they could get such a gray cash through their absolutely white accounting. Have spent. I don't know the details. This is the only way to work with Russia. Of course. that the British did not lose, because initially the amount of the contract was twice overstated on the "tacit recommendation" of the Russian side. The exact same set of equipment was sold to Canada for almost half the price, because everything is white and honest.