Forecasts for 2019 and real achievements of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine based on the results of the special operation
It was with this quote from the German "Iron Chancellor" Otto von Bismarck that the article published on the Military Review in February 2019 ended. Military-industrial complex of Ukraine: state and prospects. Who then could have imagined that events would flutter so rapidly, and that in February 2022 two fraternal peoples, in fact, a single people, would kill each other on the battlefields. It is characteristic that a significant number of comments left on that article can be attributed with complete certainty to “hawking”. Well, they already threw it, so they threw it ...
Let's consider the theses outlined in the above article in the context of the Russian special operation on the territory of Ukraine and see how relevant they turned out to be at the moment.
The course for a tough confrontation with Russia
The strengthening of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex (MIC), as a result of preparations for a military conflict with the Russian Federation, indicated in an article dated February 2019, can be considered a fait accompli. The main evidence of this is still flying aircraft and helicopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which, by all accounts, should no longer be left. This suggests that the aircraft repair plants were able to restore a significant number of aircraft and helicopters that were previously considered decommissioned, as well as to restore aircraft damaged as a result of Russian high-precision strikes. weapons long range at the very beginning of the conflict.
It also cannot be said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have few combat-ready tanks and artillery. Of course, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gradually experiencing a shortage of armored vehicles and artillery, which Ukraine's sponsors are trying to compensate for with the help of Western equipment, but this shortage is not a consequence of the poor performance of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, but the result of the work of the RF Armed Forces.
There is no doubt that if the denazification of Ukraine is not brought to its logical end, the financial and technological injections of Western countries will turn the Ukrainian military-industrial complex into a monster, the results of which will pose a significant threat to the national security of the Russian Federation.
Now let's see which samples of modern and modernized weapons the Ukrainian military-industrial complex could or could not bring to real use in the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the beginning or middle of 2022.
OTRK "Thunder"
The operational-tactical missile system (OTRK) "Thunder", developed by the Yuzhnoye design bureau, has apparently never entered service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine - so far the best that Ukraine has, these are the Soviet OTRK "Tochka-U", which they still will not run out of.
Visually, both the rocket and the launcher for it, and indeed the whole concept, even the alleged performance characteristics (TTX) are extremely similar to the Russian Iskander OTRK. Most likely, the Soviet “roots” are somehow traced in the Grom complex - the development of the Iskander OTRK was started back in the USSR, it is possible that Ukrainian specialists could have access to developments even at that time.
Despite the fact that the Thunder OTRK did not have time to start the Russian special operation, there is no doubt that in a few more years the Ukrainian military-industrial complex could bring it to mind, and then the Armed Forces of Ukraine would be able to fire at targets deep in the territory of the Russian Federation - the estimated firing range OTRK "Thunder" was supposed to be up to 500 kilometers, and according to some sources, up to 1000 kilometers. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would have tried to strike at the Crimean bridge in any case.
When firing from the Kharkov region, a significant part of the European territory of the Russian Federation turned out to be within the reach of the Grom OTRK
With all the desire to attribute the Thunder OTRK to the failures of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, it does not work - they simply did not have enough time.
RCC "Neptune"
Anti-ship missile (ASM) "Neptune", developed by KB "Luch", an analogue of the Russian anti-ship missile X-35, has apparently entered service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Officially, the first prototypes of the RK-360MTs Neptune complex were handed over to the naval forces of Ukraine on March 15, 2021, and already in August of the same year, at the parade in honor of the 30th anniversary of Ukraine's independence, serial samples of the Neptune complex were demonstrated.
There is no confirmed information that any Russian ships were damaged or sunk by these anti-ship missiles, but To all appearances, our armed forces had to take into account the factor of the possible presence of the Neptune anti-ship missiles in the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the very beginning of the special operation.
T-84 Tank
After the collapse of the USSR, the tank industry of Ukraine was one of the most powerful segments of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. Then the question arises - why are the Armed Forces of Ukraine not saturated with T-84 tanks?
Firstly, the Ukrainian tank industry has never been self-sufficient - many components came from other regions of the USSR, and the problems after the collapse of the USSR contributed, so the development and mass production of new T-84 tanks for Ukraine went "with a creak". The level of the Russian military-industrial complex, of course, is an order of magnitude higher, but the tasks before it are much more ambitious, while the development and mass production of combat vehicles on the Armata platform is no easier for us than for Ukraine its T-84.
Secondly, the question arises on the criterion of "efficiency-cost". Which is better, one T-14 or two T-90M Proryv? Which is better, one T-14 or 5-10 deeply modernized T-72/T-80s? Of course, the modernization process cannot be continued indefinitely, but it can be assumed that the presence of several hundred "Armata" would not have affected the course of the special operation in any way - it would have been even worse. In any case, some of the newest vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could have been destroyed, which would have caused significant image damage to Russia. Similarly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would not have received any significant advantages from several hundred T-84s - it would be enough to modernize and maintain the existing thousands of tanks in combat readiness, which, apparently, was done.
As expected, in the Ukrainian conflict, tanks are primarily used as a means of supporting infantry, destroying fortifications and firing points, and not at all for hunting their own kind. And these tasks are perfectly solved even by relatively outdated tanks. In this case, the destruction of enemy tanks is most often carried out by other anti-tank weapons.
But why the military-industrial complex of Ukraine did not establish a large-scale production of the widely advertised active protection systems (KAZ) "Barrier" and dynamic protection (DZ) "Knife", this is a big question, because modern DZ and KAZ can radically increase the security of armored combat vehicles. Well, perhaps the real characteristics of the Ukrainian DZ and KAZ turned out to be not as good as the advertising ones. In general, there are few countries in the world that are able to create such products and bring them to mass production.
ATGM "Stugna-P"
But as for anti-tank weapons, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is doing very well with this. In particular, the aforementioned Luch Design Bureau has developed and put into serial production the Stugna-P anti-tank missile system (ATGM) with a firing range of up to 5000 meters. A distinctive feature of the Ukrainian ATGM is the presence of remote control over a television channel, which allows the calculation of the ATGM to attack from closed positions.
According to open data, hundreds of Stugna-P ATGM launchers and thousands of missiles for them were fired - this is an undoubted success of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. It can be assumed that this complex drank a lot of blood from the RF Armed Forces, it is possible that more than the advertised American Javelins.
MLRS "Alder"
The Alder multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) is perhaps the most dangerous product for the RF Armed Forces, produced by the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. In terms of its characteristics, the Alder MLRS is not inferior, but most likely surpasses the supplied American HIMARS MLRS (of course, if you do not take into account the possibility of firing HIMARS operational-tactical missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers).
The firing range of the Alder MLRS reaches 70 kilometers with a warhead weighing 250 kilograms and 120 kilometers with a warhead weighing 170 kilograms. The hitting accuracy of about 7 meters is ensured by the operation of GPS / GLONASS satellite positioning systems and impulse correction engines.
The number of Alder MLRS missiles produced is unknown, but during the conflict they are periodically used by the Ukrainian side. In particular, the latest information on the use of the Alder MLRS appeared on 21.07.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX (at the time of writing).
MLRS "Alder" is an effective and extremely dangerous weapon system. It can be considered a great success for the RF Armed Forces that it was not produced in sufficient quantities. There can be no doubt that if the Russian special operation had not begun, and in a few years the Ukrainian military-industrial complex would be able to provide a relatively large-scale production of this complex and missiles for it.
Moreover, on the basis of missiles for the Vilkha MLRS, the creation of anti-aircraft guided missiles (SAMs) was considered - since the gas-dynamic control belt allows you to get the highest maneuverability, and Ukraine could purchase an active radar homing head (ARLGSN) in Western countries, for example, from the United States or Israel.
High-precision projectile "Kvitnik"
The 152 mm Kvitnik high-precision artillery projectile with a semi-active laser guidance system, developed by NPK Progress and TsKB Tochnost, is an analogue of the Russian Krasnopol high-precision projectile. Since 2017, it has been manufactured without Russian components. How many of them have been produced since 2012 (the year they were put into service) is unknown. In combination with UAVs and counter-battery stations, it can be extremely dangerous.
Aviation
By the beginning of the special operation, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex could not give birth to anything interesting, but there is nothing inexplicable in this, after all, aviation This is the toughest industry. Nevertheless, as mentioned above, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex repairs the existing aircraft and helicopters extremely successfully, even with the supply of spare parts by Western countries.
Information about the "rotted on the ground", "plundered and sold" aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, unfortunately, was not confirmed - The Russian Armed Forces still cannot achieve air supremacy over the territory of Ukraine, however, this is more a merit of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM), and not aviation, but Ukrainian industry was able to maintain these Soviet-made air defense systems in proper condition, right?
The Ukrainian military-industrial complex has an important advantage - the availability of competencies in the development and serial production of aircraft engines. The Motor Sich company is the pearl of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. So the issue of creating our own aircraft, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) could well be resolved in the foreseeable future, of course, in cooperation with Western countries. The same Turkey would help Ukraine to establish the production of UAVs in exchange for the production of engines for them.
The Ukrainian military-industrial complex has already mastered the SKD assembly of the Bayraktar UAV, over time this experience could be used to create their own UAVs
Fleet
Creation fleet is a long and complicated story, nothing revolutionary from the Ukrainian military-industrial complex was to be expected here. The pinnacle of Ukrainian post-perestroika shipbuilding was the primitive river armored boats of project 58150 Gyurza.
However, even here the military-industrial complex of Ukraine has a trump card up its sleeve in the form of the state enterprise "Scientific and production complex of gas turbine construction" Zorya "-" Mashproekt ". This enterprise develops and produces powerful ship gas turbines, which are so lacking in Russian surface ships.
The engine is the backbone of both a ship and an aircraft. The presence of such enterprises as Motor Sich and Zorya - Mashproekt allows (allowed?) the Ukrainian military-industrial complex to be optimistic about the prospects for creating combat aircraft, helicopters, UAVs and surface ships, of course, in cooperation with Western (and / or Eastern) partners.
Conclusions
There are many other achievements and failures of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex left out of the brackets, which are difficult to consider within the framework of one article, and such a goal was not set - it is more important to compare its expected achievements in 2019 with the real ones revealed during the Russian special operation.
Underestimating the capabilities of the enemy never led to anything good. Unfortunately, this is often forgotten, as a result of which, at the beginning, there is a “hatter-bite”, inflated by “cheers-patriots”, and then a bitter experience is acquired, paid for with blood.
Modern wars are always a battle of the military-industrial complex, and the further, the more important will be the technological and production capabilities of the military-industrial complexes of the warring parties. It can be assumed that only the beginning of the Russian special operation did not allow the Ukrainian military-industrial complex to "unwind" to the fullest - in five years everything would have become much worse.
After the completion of the Russian special operation, Ukraine, that part of it that will not be annexed to Russia, Poland or Romania, should become completely different - peaceful, pastoral. There is no need for any heavy industry, nuclear power plants and other things - a little bit of minority rights, a transgender party, the “Lives of Ukrainian Nationalists Matter” movement and all in the same vein. And the Ukrainian military-industrial complex in full force must return home - to Russia, because, apparently, not only Ukraine will have to “denazify”.
In conclusion, I would like to recall one more statement by Otto von Bismarck, cited in the above-mentioned February 2019 article:
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