Will the old people go into battle again?
What is happening today within the framework of the NWO in Ukraine makes us think about many things. In the near future we will discuss logistical issues that will give many readers answers to their questions "why everything is going the way it is." And the topic of today's conversation is a more distant time, let's say, a distant "tomorrow", which may turn out to be somewhat uncomfortable.
Being only one and a half kilometers from the Baltimore airfield, I can, as an eyewitness (more precisely, hearsay) assess the intensity of Su-34 flights. And, in order not to cross certain boundaries, I will say that the intensity is ... intense. The bombers are doing their job. And for example, I will take these aircraft.
If you take a map, then the places that are announced in the reports are from 500 to 700 km. That is, plus or minus a thousand and a half kilometers per flight. A little. But if there are two departures? It's three thousand. Well, the resource is considered in hours, but we will not find fault.
In any case, the bombers are working in full. They consume motor resources, sometimes get damaged, and sometimes fail. Yes, losses in war are commonplace.
To date, the Ukrainian side has reported the destruction of 8 Su-34 aircraft. I analyzed everything that was dumped on the Internet in the form of a victory, and I will say that the death of three Su-34s is a huge question for me personally. More precisely, like this: I accept and believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down 4 Su-34 aircraft, the destruction of 1 aircraft causes distrust and the death of 3 aircraft is more than doubtful.
No, anything can happen, of course, but there are very big doubts in the reports of that side in this regard. Nevertheless, a certain number of aircraft are irretrievably lost at the moment, and some will fail due to the exhaustion of their resource. How did it happen with planes in Syria, some of which were easier to abandon there than to bring back and restore. Especially when there is almost nothing to restore.
And all this, both lost, and damaged, and aircraft that have used up their resources - all this must be compensated. And this is the main question of this material: will we be able to, or will “holes” appear in the near future that will plug the same Su-24M?
In order to understand what the essence of the problem is, let's look at the numbers of aircraft production. In general, an airplane is a very complex organism in our time, therefore it is simply unrealistic to release them, as during the Second World War. And the loss of everyone is a significant blow to the budget. The cost of one Su-34 under the 2012 contract was 1 rubles. Now, most likely, after all our perturbations, more expensive.
Serial production of the Su-34 began in April 2005. Serial conditionally, several machines (7) of the installation series were produced.
In 2008, a five-year contract was signed for the supply of 32 aircraft to the Russian Aerospace Forces. That is, on average, the Novosibirsk Aircraft Plant named after V.P. Chkalova produced 6,4 aircraft per year. A little, you will agree, but there was no particular hurry.
In 2012, the Russian Ministry of Defense signed another contract for the purchase of 92 vehicles. This order was completed in 2020. The speed of aircraft construction has increased significantly and amounted to 11,5 aircraft per year, that is, almost 1 aircraft per month.
After completing the order, in June 2020, another contract was signed, already for the supply of the Su-34M. In three years, it is planned to build and transfer 24 more aircraft to the Aerospace Forces. That is, an average of 8 aircraft per year.
In general, it’s not fast, but there’s no particular desire to criticize here, as we can do it quickly and “high-quality”, there’s no need to tell.
Another question is that in the conditions of hostilities a situation may turn out in which it will not be possible to compensate for the “natural” loss.
Let's take it this way: 4 aircraft were lost as part of the NWO. 2 aircraft lost in January 2019 in the Sea of Japan. 1 aircraft was lost in October 2020 in the Far East as a result of a technical malfunction.
A total of 7 aircraft. Considering that the end-edge of the NMD in Ukraine is not visible, it is worth considering possible losses there due to the fact that the Western allies of Ukraine, at least in small quantities, are transmitting modern air defense systems.
Ukraine is not Syria. In Syria, the Su-34s worked quite calmly and without losses. Simply because the terrorists had nothing more complicated than the Stinger at their disposal. Therefore, the "Ducklings" calmly cut the sky at heights inaccessible to MANPADS and calmly did their job.
Ukraine is a completely different matter. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have air defense, there are trained radar and air defense operators, in general - you can “destroy” as much as you like Aviation and air defense of Ukraine in the reports, but in fact Russia does not have a total advantage in the air. The fact that the Ukrainian aviation suffered heavy losses does not make the Aerospace Forces the masters of the airspace, since the Armed Forces of Ukraine have at their disposal enough means capable of shooting down Russian aircraft. What the Ukrainians get from time to time.
Yes, it is worth noting here that in the conditions of the modern information war you cannot believe everything, such as, for example, the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to shoot down the Su-35 near Izyum. It is foolish to believe in such a feat and I will overcome it, since there is too much. Plus, for some reason, unlike other reports, data on the aircraft do not appear in the joyful reports, and in general, "it suffered too much on contact with the ground." Well, yes, we have, as it were, a global practice, the planes hit the ground to the ground.
But this, I repeat, does not in the least detract from the capabilities of the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in terms of destroying aircraft of all classes. And you can not guess that the Ukrainian military will turn inside out in order to chalk up a Russian plane or helicopter.
And since, in accordance with the complete silence of the Russian Ministry of Defense, it is impossible to make even rough forecasts regarding the timing of the end of the SVO, it is worth adding a certain number of aircraft to the list of losses. Just in case.
We will assume that the Chkalov Novosibirsk Aircraft Plant will have to compensate for the loss of 10 aircraft as part of the last order. We already have 7, 3 in three years is quite a normal figure. Not a disaster, because the fighting.
In total, 24 of the 10 ordered aircraft are no longer available. They have already left the line and new machines will fill the empty holes in it.
There are 14 planes left. That's not a lot. It and 24 - just a regiment consisting of two squadrons, but 14 - you know.
What regiments do we have today actively (you know what I mean, about the NWO) operate the Su-34?
47th bap (Voronezh) - 24 aircraft;
277th bap (Khurba) - 24 aircraft, used sporadically;
559th bap (Morozovsk) - 32 aircraft.
God himself ordered the Voronezh and Rostov to fly to Ukraine, the Khabarovsk residents were transferred to reinforcement. I don’t know how the Rostov and Far Eastern aircraft look in terms of resource, but the 47th bap fought on these Su-34s back in Syria.
In total, we have 80 aircraft, which, judging by the sound effects, plow 24/7 without stopping. How many of these aircraft will need major repairs after such operation, I can’t say. It is clear that a certain part will definitely have to be deeply repaired.
But I will undertake to say a few words about the capabilities of the NAZ named after Chkalov. Take the figures for the production of aircraft by year.
Let's leave behind the first pre-production aircraft, which were produced from 1990 to 2005, there were 9 of them, moreover, one or two for static tests.
2007-2009 - 7 trial series cars. In general, the aircraft was produced and passed the state test program at the same time. In general, it turned out to be interesting with the Su-34, before being put into service, the first order for 32 vehicles was given. So by the time the Su-34 was officially put into service, and it happened in 2014, production was not only going on, the first batch had already been released and production of the second had begun.
2010 - 4 pieces;
2011 - 6 pieces;
2012 - 10 pieces;
2013 - 14 pcs. Here the first contract for 32 aircraft ended and the second contract for 92 began. The last 2 aircraft are from the new contract.
2014 - 18 pieces;
2015 - 18 pieces;
2016 - 16 pieces;
2017 - 14 pieces;
2018 - 14 pieces;
2019 - 10 pcs.
And now we have a contract for 2020, under which 2021 aircraft were delivered in 4, and the same number in May 2022. And in total, from 2021 to 2023, NAZ should build, I remind you, 24 aircraft.
That is, the implementation of the 2020 contract is clearly behind schedule. 8 aircraft - this is an obvious backlog, but it is obvious that NAZ is busy with no less important things, as I understand it, overhauls of combat aircraft.
In fact, I do not detract from the work of the Novosibirsk aircraft manufacturers, but I understand that everything is rather complicated.
Plus there are logistical issues. The seething of brains was fresh when T-62s suddenly went to the southern sector of the NVO. Very many then ... ambiguously perceived this news. But in fact, everything is simple: logistics.
Southern airports have been closed since February. The railway is literally suffocating, because the Russians, broken off with foreign holidays, rushed to their south. And when it became clear that Tanks it will not be possible to quickly transfer from storage bases in the same Sverdlovsk or Omsk region, they used what was closer. Bases of the Southern Military District. Still, a few hundred kilometers against more than two thousand is serious.
The same thing can happen with airplanes. It is clear that if the plane is not staggered to the final, then at the very least it will fly to Novosibirsk, although the path is not short. Worse, if everything, flew off and it is necessary either to carry the plane to the overhaul, or to overhaul the aircraft.
By the way, no one canceled the logistical charades with engines either. AL-31F, which are on the Su-34, they are also half assembled. The hot part is assembled in Moscow, at Salyut Gas Turbine Engineering Research and Production Center JSC on Sokolina Gora, and then everyone is taken to Ufa, where everything is put together within the walls of the Ufa Engine-Building Production Association and it turns out AL-31F or something else.
From Moscow to Ufa almost 1400 km... And from Ufa to Novosibirsk another 2000 kilometers...
We have a big country, big problems with logistics, and nothing can be done about it.
But back to where it all began. With intensive aircraft operation. It cannot but affect the state of the entire fleet of 80 Su-34s involved in the NWO. Planes fly, planes fight, planes use up resources. This is fine. I would say even more: it should be so. They don’t transfer vacationers to warm beaches ...
But the plane needs repair, needs maintenance, needs replacement. And there are certain fears that the Novosibirsk plant simply will not be able to cope with such a volume of work in the current situation. If we return to the graphs, at the peak, NAZ produced 1,5 aircraft per month. This is when the Su-34s were just going to the troops, there was no need to make repairs. VKS did not participate in hostilities and so on.
But now, for some reason, everything looks much sadder. 4 aircraft in 2021 and 4 in half of 2022 - this, as said before, is a concern.
And for some reason there are fears that everything will not be very beautiful. The deadlines will again be disrupted, and the "ducklings" will be laid up in anticipation of repairs.
It is clear that the Su-24M will come to the rescue. We have plenty of them, all the pilots who fly the Su-34 today started on the Su-24.
But is it good? Is it possible to transfer from T-72B3 to T-62? Can. After the Su-34, can I get into the Su-24? Can. And you can also perform combat missions. The question is how successful and how comfortable. It's like transferring from a Toyota Camry to a Zhiguli VAZ-2106. You can go, but there are nuances.
When there is something to get from the armory pantry, this, of course, is good. The militiamen of Donbass fought monuments, and fought successfully. Can such a substitution be called successful? No.
What I have outlined in this article is not a cry that everything is lost, as some may now think. This is a designation of a problem that could have a serious impact on the situation with the Su-34. Specifically with the Su-34. As with other planes and helicopters, I can’t presume to say, this must be looked at separately for each model.
And it turns out that when the SVO ends, which I have absolutely no doubt, as well as its outcome, we may face a very difficult situation: most of our modern bombers will be disabled and wait for them to be repaired specialists.
Not the best deal - to withdraw half of the available Su-34s. But it can easily happen, and, really, one can not look for the guilty here. They are not here. The Novosibirsk Aircraft Plant is not a very large enterprise, which, obviously, is not designed for such intensive work.
Of course, it might not be the case. And that would be just fine. And it’s good, of course, that we still have Su-24s, which, if anything, will be replaced, covered, and worked out.
But in general, I would like things to happen a little differently.
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