Military Review

"Future Wars" - unfulfilled predictions

27

Perhaps in the future, robots will become soldiers, and people will only have to manage them. Frame from the movie "Surrogates" (2009)



“Listen, O mountains, plains and rivers, and all the native Country of Kukuans! Hear, O heavens and sun, O rain, and storms, and mists! Hear, O men and women, boys and girls, and you babies lying in the womb! Listen to me all that lives and must die! Listen to me all that has died and must come to life again and die again! Listen! The Spirit of life is in me and I prophesy. I prophesy! I prophesy!"
King Solomon's Mines by Rider Haggard

Is it possible to see the future? Previously, in ancient times, there were sorcerers, sorceresses and prophets who, for various reasons, informed their fellow tribesmen about their vision of the near, and even distant future. Some of them were respected, others, on the contrary, were stoned and burned at the stake. The prophecies of the most famous "seer" Nostradamus are still quoted today by everyone who is not lazy, but not everyone knows that his son was executed for trying to start a fire, which he also predicted. He predicted global changes in politics, but in none of his quatrains did he mention that women in the future would wear shorts, and even on him, a resident of his time, this should have been much more impressive than everything that He wrote. He would have looked at them without stopping, but even though his spirit had visited the future, for some reason he did not notice the beautiful naked female legs. Today politicians from different countries are more and more concerned about using science to foresee the near future, because this is very, very important. What the events in Ukraine once again remind us of today. If the same British scientists could have foreseen the situation with energy carriers... Probably, they, and other European politicians, would have planned their actions in a completely different way and even behaved towards Russia.

And not like prophecy, no. In the recent past, there were even quite "scientifically" sound predictions of what would happen today. But the "prophecies" of these "prophets" turned out to be wrong.

And it so happened that in 2011 the US Department of Defense ordered futurologists Peter Schwartz and Douglas Randall (and today there is such a profession) to prepare a scientifically based report on the prospects for military conflicts in the coming decades. It received a rather strange name: “Weather Report: 2012-2030”. And it was about the fact that in the near future humanity may face military conflicts caused by climate change. Moreover, this report is just interesting because it was made in 2011, but today it is already 2022. And it is clear that they did not look into a crystal ball, they did not scatter beans and rat bones on the table, and they did not guess on coffee grounds, but used purely scientific methods, and ... despite this, not one of the foresights of this report until now did not come true! But that is why it is especially interesting to read it today.

Well, they predicted the following to mankind:

Year 2018. In their opinion, this year it was quite possible to carry out a military operation of China against… Kazakhstan. The goal is to establish control over gas and oil pipelines passing through its territory.

For 2020, they "planned" the mass migration of Scandinavians to Europe due to deteriorating climatic conditions. "The Gulf Stream will stop and the north of Europe will freeze!". Accordingly, a shortage of resources will begin in Europe, and first of all, drinking water.

But this prediction is still "flowers" ... In the same year, a large-scale war between the countries of Southeast Asia was to begin. India, China, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and other countries were supposed to participate in it, and in 2025 a civil war in China was supposed to happen, the cause of which would be the destabilization of its internal situation as a result of this war. The war, as we know, did not start, and moreover, nothing seems to indicate today that such a war is even possible.

The year 2022 is our time. Conflict between France and Germany over the Rhine River and its water resources. Because of the water, as we know, there is no conflict, but the relationship between these countries is indeed somewhat in a fever because of ... the events in Ukraine. Their American analysts in 2011 could not even imagine. By the way, who could?

Further, in 2025-2030, in their opinion, the probability of the collapse of the EU will increase. And here again, there are problems with this, but whether this collapse will happen or not, no one still knows for sure. But instead of migrating to the southern Mediterranean from Europe, which was supposed to leave 10% of the population, the Europeans got a completely opposite picture: they were flooded with a stream of migrants from the Middle East and Africa, and such that today it is quite possible to talk about a kind of "reconquista" in relations between Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

By 2030, relations between China and Japan should be aggravated. The reason is again the lack of natural resources. So far, by the way, nothing indicates this, but the problem of Taiwan is on the agenda in full growth!

In 2012, America itself was supposed to be threatened by the flow of refugees from the islands of the Caribbean, and since 2015, the migration of people from Europe. I had to console myself with the fact that in the first wave there will be many wealthy people. By 2020, according to the forecast, oil prices should have risen again (which did not happen because of the pandemic), so that serious armed conflicts should have occurred in the Persian Gulf and the Caspian.

And there is only one reason - the climate, which in the countries of Northern Europe should have become more severe. The situation in China, India and Pakistan should have become very bad. China will be threatened by rains and floods, but India and Pakistan will be very severe drought, which is really happening right here and now, because of which India even stopped grain exports. These problems in Asia will lead to dissatisfaction of the population with the governments of these countries, which will not be able to cope with them. And in order to maintain power, they will start a large-scale war in the region. And crowds of starving people will seek salvation in emigration, which will further destabilize the situation in a number of neighboring states.

Under these conditions, only world grain producers, namely the USA, Argentina and Russia, will win.

However, the US scientists did not offer anything good either. 2018 was supposed to be the year of the unification of the USA, Canada, Mexico into one state. Moreover, perhaps the main task of the “Ministry of Defense of North America” will be to control migration from Europe and Asia. But Korea will finally become a single country, and Seoul will create its own nuclear weapon, and Pyongyang will receive the coveted technologies of the XNUMXst century.

As for Africa, it will be mired in such painful and bloody military conflicts that the entry of people of the white race there will simply be impossible.

Well, it's funny to read about how the US will unite with Mexico and Canada today. But with regard to Africa, we can say that the situation there is developing from bad to very bad.

The most "funny" part of the report "Weather reports: 2012-2030" is devoted to Russia. It can become part of a united Europe, because it is beneficial for both Russia and the Europeans. The latter will receive Russian energy resources, access to its vast arable lands, fresh water reserves, and if it is profitable, then it is rational. But, as we can see, not everyone understands the thesis “what is profitable is rational” in Europe. Otherwise, what is happening there now would not have happened in principle. Clearly, American scientists overestimated the intelligence of Europeans.

It is interesting to compare the document of American futurists with the UN report, which was made in 2007. There, the main problems for Africa are AIDS, lack of drinking water and ... a mass exodus of its population. By 2020, according to the most ominous scenario, the continent should plunge into anarchy and become a source of an avalanche-like migration to Europe. The answer could be a wave of nationalism that could unite Europeans against black migrants. Huge financial injections will be required in conflict-ridden countries. In this regard, the UN rapporteurs, as they say, looked into the water. This is exactly what happened, and the situation is only getting worse.

Brazil could also face an agricultural crisis that could very well escalate into a war for control... of arable land. But in Asia there will be too much water. Bangladesh will be flooded and Pakistan's rivers are likely to dry up, potentially leading to war between India and Pakistan. Moreover, the fact that they have nuclear weapons only worsens the situation.

UNPO suggested that China suffer both from drought and hurricanes, and from excessively heavy rainfall. By 2025, the ocean coast of China will be devastated by typhoons, and masses of refugees will concentrate in the central regions of the country. The Chinese army will stop their movement, which will increase social tension in the country.

The US government was offered two options for the development of events: the first is the closure of the southern borders, in which people will begin to accumulate in border cities, where mass cases of violence will take place; the second - another hurricane of the sixth category will destroy the city of Houston and the oil-producing infrastructure of the region. And then, in order to contain the rise in fuel prices, all the accumulated strategic oil reserves will have to be sold. That is, the described situation takes place, although the reason for it is completely different.

"Future Wars" - unfulfilled predictions
And so, they will be produced on the assembly line ... Frame from the movie "Surrogates" (2009)

Well, the conclusion is this: even today, with the most modern computer technology that can operate with millions of variables, no accurate predictions of what will happen in society in the next few years are possible. Everything is still dominated by "His Majesty Blind Chance."
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  1. Egoza
    Egoza 22 July 2022 16: 15
    +5
    they did not look into a crystal ball, they did not scatter beans and rat bones on the table, and they did not guess on coffee grounds, but used purely scientific methods,

    But it would be necessary to use the old methods! Maybe more accurate forecasts would be! )))
    1. North Caucasus
      North Caucasus 22 July 2022 16: 30
      +7
      It was necessary to carefully review the cartoon about the Simpsons. The fall of the Twin Towers, the war in Syria, and the revival of the USSR in 2024 were predicted there. Judging by the events on the outskirts, it is quite possible that things are moving towards the revival of the USSR!
      1. Mavrikiy
        Mavrikiy 22 July 2022 16: 39
        +4
        Quote: North Caucasus
        Judging by the events on the outskirts, it is quite possible that things are moving towards the revival of the USSR!
        The USSR, not the USSR, but the Russian Federation, will soon be reformatted into something new, unaccountable to either the United States or the IMF ... request If only to fill up WHO ....
    2. Tank jacket
      Tank jacket 22 July 2022 22: 47
      +1
      The priest looked at the crystal ball, ordered the pharaoh, the pharaoh scattered the special forces, the special forces scattered and formed a mafia for 2000 years.
      ----
      And it was about the fact that in the near future humanity may face military conflicts caused by climate change. Moreover, this report is just interesting because it was made in 2011, but today it is already 2022. (With)
      What has happened so many times...
      Bolesla Prus
      In October, when the waters of the Nile flood all of Egypt, this long snake
      takes on a blue color of the water, and in February, when the floodplain of the river is covered
      spring vegetation, it is green with a blue stripe along the back
      and a lot of blue veins on the head - these are the channels crossing the Delta. AT
      In March, the blue stripe narrows, and the skin of the snake sparkles in the sun with gold
      ripening fields. At the beginning of June, in drought and dust, the Nile seems to be barely noticeable.
      a blue line on the body of a snake, covered, like mourning crepe, with gray
      a layer of dust.
      The main feature of Egypt is the hot climate. Happens here in January
      ten degrees of heat, in August - twenty-seven. Sometimes the heat gets to
      forty degrees, which corresponds to the temperature of a Roman bath. close
      Mediterranean, over the Delta, it rains no more than ten times a year,
      and in Upper Egypt, once every ten years.
      Under such conditions, Egypt would not be the cradle of civilization, but one of the
      those desert gorges with which the Sahara desert is so rich, if the waters
      the sacred Nile was not resurrected every year. From the end of June to the end
      September, the Nile incessantly arrives and floods almost all of Egypt. From the end
      October until May next year, the spring waters gradually subside, exposing
      even the lowest places.
      ----
      Not the pharaohs - you know it well - created Egypt, but the gods and priests. It is not the pharaohs who determine the day and height of the rise of the waters in the Nile and regulate its spills. It was not the pharaohs who taught the people to sow, harvest fruits, and raise cattle. It is not the pharaohs who treat diseases and watch that the state is not endangered by external enemies. What would happen, tell me yourself, if our caste gave Egypt to the mercy of the pharaohs? The wisest of them has behind him the experience of some two or three decades. And the priestly caste watched and studied for tens of thousands of years. The most powerful overlord has only one pair of eyes and hands. We have thousands of eyes and hands in all the nomes and even in other states ... Can the activity of the pharaoh be compared with ours? And in case of disagreement, who should yield: us or him?
      ------------
      The wars of the future live in the past and present and among us.
    3. antivirus
      antivirus 30 July 2022 20: 33
      0
      Amanitas didn’t eat - that’s the flight past 100% of what actually happened
  2. Egoza
    Egoza 22 July 2022 16: 52
    +1
    Molfar Nechai predicted...
    a big trouble for Ukraine was predicted by the last Ukrainian molfar Nechay
    “One nation, its own, became an enemy among themselves, and this was done by a third party,” Nechai predicted in his last interview in 2009. He really knew that severe trials awaited Ukraine, the wife of a white magician recalls today. And he adds: Molfar spoke of an unkind future, as if it were inevitable, as if there would be a war, and it should be so, but then everything will be fine.

    He said, "our people are dying out. There will be a war and it will be like before again, the Poles will return ..." He was killed in 2011
    if anyone understands a little Ukrainian, you can watch the recording

    https://zik.ua/ru/news/2018/04/15/duhovnie_kataklyzmi_chto_govoryl_o_budushchem_ukrayni_poslednyy_molfar_1305209

    https://znaj.ua/ru/society/229411-ostannye-peredbachennya-dlya-ukrajini-legendarnij-molfar-zalishiv-prorotstvo-yake-vzhe-pochalo-zbuvatisya

    Bulgarian Vanga also said that in the first quarter of the 21st century the USSR would be reborn.
    Despite some accurate predictions, it should be remembered that "man proposes, but God disposes" and no one will say anything.
  3. nikvic46
    nikvic46 22 July 2022 17: 15
    +3
    Only the prudence of people can avert all troubles. It is rightly said - "If God wants to punish people, He deprives them of their mind.
  4. Fima
    Fima 22 July 2022 17: 52
    +6
    In my opinion, the best of the predictions is Stanislav Lem's essay "The Sum of Technologies". Much of what has been said has already happened.
  5. Seamaster
    Seamaster 22 July 2022 18: 20
    +4
    It was necessary not to finance these chatterboxes, but to invest in the development of a time machine. And get accurate information.
    1. dauria
      dauria 22 July 2022 21: 11
      +2
      and invest in the development of a time machine.

      What's the point? Well, you'll be back. That is, to the point where, according to Laplace, the same coordinates and velocities of all particles of matter in the Universe. And then the damned Heisenberg and Niels Bohr will come out and say - “Shit to you, there is an uncertainty relation. And the damned electron will jump wherever it pleases. the winning number in Sportloto, which you spied on in the future. wassat
  6. The comment was deleted.
  7. Mikhail Maslov
    Mikhail Maslov 22 July 2022 23: 02
    +1
    It is difficult to imagine, but it is possible if you carefully monitor the processes in society and the climate on planet Earth. You can manage society and there are many examples of this. But the climate is very fraught for the entire eco-system of the planet. such an answer.
  8. Mikhail Drabkin
    Mikhail Drabkin 23 July 2022 01: 17
    +4
    —- The question is solvable if we recognize that there are different distances for predicting the moment "future".
    —- The model of the future is always changing, and grows out of the present, and therefore the past.
    —-Correlation of the forces of variables affecting the multidimensional vector of the "present" and determines the "future".
    —Our knowledge of the present (and hence the past) is changing…new variables are being discovered.

    —-The presence of dominant variables is a necessary condition for predicting ... modeling the future.
    —-There are components of the vector of the future, which are determined by these dominant variables of the present….

    — Zhirinovsky predicted the inevitability of a conflict over Ukraine. Brezzinski predicted the importance of Ukraine as a determining factor in the weakening of Russia… Maintaining the NVO is a reflection of the “future” model in relations with the West…
    —-Military actions are determined by the continuous modeling of the future ... dominant variables. Artillery…air defense…aerospace forces.. command and control, communications, intelligence are some of the dominant variables of war.
    —-Intelligence and comprehensive knowledge of the present is completely sharpened to determine ... modeling the future.
    1. Mikhail3
      Mikhail3 25 July 2022 12: 29
      +2
      There is a view of the Universe as a fractal. That is, there are all options for all decisions made. At the same time, still. And life is sliding along the branches of a fractal, perceived by consciousness at every single moment. When making certain decisions, we simply turn to certain branches of an infinite tree of options. Some kind of forecasts are just maps, diagrams of exactly where to turn so that our life meets our expectations.
  9. Knell wardenheart
    Knell wardenheart 23 July 2022 13: 21
    +2
    I see it this way..
    In the modern world, there has been a developed culture of dealing with risks and anticipating them for quite a long time. Of course, it's not perfect, but it's there. Financial analytics, military, weather forecasting, etc. The bottom line is that having some forecasts, the analyst creates certain recommendations in the array, the use of even a part of which changes the predictive neutrality. Because inputs change. And the probability of the predicted event decreases, redistributing risks to other directions. This can be compared with the behavior of plasma in magnetic traps - when it is possible to "fetter" it with a magnetic field in predictable areas, it begins to behave less and less predictably, trying other areas "by the tooth".
    It turns out a certain paradox - the better the analytics is, the more catastrophic its failure can become, because the redistribution of the efforts of the parties relying on analytics will contribute to the accumulation of their resources to solve important problems - and these resources at one fine moment can, like transferred plasma, break out in a completely unexpected place under a lot of pressure. After that, the collapse of the structure will occur, as already happened in the First World War or in the Second or in 1991.
    After such a breakthrough, a cascade of events can occur in high-risk areas - where before the situation could be restrained by analytics and preemption. And vice versa - like the growth of tectonic stresses, these events may not happen, contrary to forecasts, without a major "breakthrough". Because the world around us has sufficient strength and elasticity, which is difficult to assess objectively and in a complex for any analyst.

    However, it is possible to "work big", because there are events on the horizon that will have to happen anyway. For example, the need for the accession of any one global model is inevitable. Otherwise, the world is waiting for an increase in desynchronization between competing models, militarization, a chain of medium conflicts. This will probably be a forceful decision, since the experience of the League of Nations and the UN shows that people sitting at the same table for a long time stop perceiving each other, even understanding.
    Or, for example, the need to limit migration and fertility in one way or another - mainly in a repressive way and through "soft power", through the destruction of traditional models of relationships between people and the imposition of "new values". Simply because there are no alternatives to this - life expectancy is growing, there are not enough resources for everyone, consumption is already threatening the environment.
    They will probably invent strong AI in one form or another, since the intellectual organization of complex systems through a person as a component has been almost at the peak of its capabilities for some time. Further development is limited precisely by the saints of man and his imperfection of all kinds, while the need for such development is objectively enormous.

    All these events together can add up like a puzzle into a very bleak future, from which today would seem to us Paradise ..
    1. Mikhail3
      Mikhail3 25 July 2022 12: 23
      +1
      Your model actually introduces chaos as a kind of force that already has goal-setting. As with plasma, to which you attribute some kind of "unpredictability", your chaos is somehow self-sufficient. And it has a goal - to spoil as much as possible) This somehow goes even beyond entropy.
      In general, if some negative event is prevented by using reason and force, then the "measure of chaos" in other places will not increase. And his "pressure" will not increase) They killed the wolf, and then lived happily ever after. Instead of killing a wolf, a dragon flew in from a neighboring forest.
      If you invent AI using the model you suggested, the poor fellow will immediately go crazy before reaching the stage of intelligence)
  10. ivan2022
    ivan2022 24 July 2022 17: 49
    +1
    The share of GDP for scientific research is the highest in Israel. According to various sources - 4-5%. The United States and China are next. Well, Russia spends 1%. And it is declining, while in advanced countries it is growing. The same, by the way, as the share that goes to health care.

    But our government, especially its financial and economic sector, stands strong!
    Probably because the word "authority" in society does not mean a scientist at all.
    As the Russian proverb says: "according to Senka and a hat."
  11. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 25 July 2022 07: 40
    0
    The profession of futurologist has existed for at least half a century. It pays well. It is strange that the author does not know this) Futurological forecasts in serious states are ordered mainly so that they ... do not come true. The author does not know this either) Expected.
    Futurists make justifications with an emphasis on extreme options for the development of certain trends that are growing due to the prevailing conditions. States take such analytical calculations and try to oppose the growth of negative trends with their well-thought-out policy. If both of them worked tolerably, the forecasts do not come true.
    How good it is when Mr. Shpakovsky describes some kind of revolver without trying to generalize and analyze, it’s just a dream and not articles are obtained ...
    1. Bobik012
      Bobik012 27 July 2022 21: 41
      +1
      The profession of futurologist has existed for at least half a century.
      laughing I think ten thousand years. Can still argue about the status of the oldest profession
      1. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 28 July 2022 09: 14
        +1
        Everyone has always tried to predict. But professional work, when a person does just that and only this, and receives money for a completed order, took shape only when science fiction writers formalized this direction as real. They prescribed the boundaries of the profession, painted everything, up to job responsibilities. In general, we now live in a world that appeared thanks to science fiction writers of the 70s of the last century. However, that's another story.)
        All sorts of prophets are not at all like futurologists, since futurology is struggling to rely on science, and not on mystical revelations.
        1. Bobik012
          Bobik012 28 July 2022 14: 12
          0
          professional work, when a person does just that and only this, and receives money for the completed order
          futurology struggles to lean on science

          This is exactly what all the futurologists, soothsayers, Nostradamus, shamans, in a word, charlatans from the Stone Age to the present day claimed...
          1. Mikhail3
            Mikhail3 29 July 2022 07: 31
            0
            Nostradamus and shamans claimed to rely on science? You should learn, while, of course, not science, but good at school) Excuse me, but your point of view is terribly dense. Learn your lessons diligently...
            1. Bobik012
              Bobik012 29 July 2022 10: 09
              0
              Thank you. Mutually. You, I see, are one of these ... I'm sorry, but I studied very well at school. Therefore, I am critical of the gypsies and other futurists
              1. Mikhail3
                Mikhail3 1 August 2022 09: 14
                0
                It's not good to lie, young man) I understand, this is the Internet, here the majority are lying as they breathe, but a lie is harmful to the liar, destroying his personality. For example, if you lie at least once a day, you cannot become a hypnotist. You will not be obeyed, because your power is destroyed) Hypnosis would be used much more actively if it were not for this limitation)
                You don’t even know that at the time of the power of the prophets and shamans, science did not exist as a concept) Stop watching videos at the lessons and take up books. Paper ones, yes. This will not give you much, because training in our schools has completely been replaced by training, but without this you will not even start fighting for your mind. Good luck on the way)
                1. Bobik012
                  Bobik012 1 August 2022 10: 43
                  0
                  ugh on you ... laughing Don't choke on your shit...
  12. ada
    ada 26 July 2022 03: 01
    0
    "Future Wars" - unfulfilled predictions

    The wars of the future do not require predictions, they require long-term careful planning based on the analysis of events and consistent efforts to implement it by very specific people, and the predicted wars did not come true, simply because of the planning of other wars that "came true" and were well prepared by the actions of these people while the rest were brainwashed, which is what we are seeing. Probably, there are also unrealized plans.
    Tov. "Zhirik" (although, what kind of comrade is he to me?), mentioned here (in vain), allowed himself to "predict" only because he was a diligent student in a serious educational institution (do not tell me which one?) and studied real materials (in including the results of mathematical analysis), collected, prepared and systematized by a device specially created for these purposes (direction to Ukraine, there is no exception) with a scientific justification for calculations for the future and was taught the appropriate methods and methods of working with such information, and did not read futurologists.
    The rabbit is born in a way that is relatively understandable to a person, but for the viewer at the performance from the hat - incomprehensible, but in fact, only after the magician shoved it in there, well, or placed it, while everyone was staring at the assistant. True, there are those who do not believe in miracles, but the assistant ... . wassat
  13. saygon66
    saygon66 26 July 2022 20: 42
    +1
    -Psychohistory (a science invented by Isaac Asimov, the novel "Empire and Foundation") also could not calculate the next events in time ... Centuries - that's a worthy minimum time period for a self-respecting predictor! smile
    - The Prince of Dune and other Gandalfs did just that... they couldn't predict simple things - only the great ones... and not otherwise! smile
  14. Stepnyak
    Stepnyak 31 July 2022 10: 53
    0
    I can accurately predict the weather of one month next year. This is the month when I will be on vacation. The month will be cold, rainy and vile. Haven't been wrong in 15 years.