Little or a lot. Quantitative aspects of foreign military-technical assistance for Ukraine
A batch of NLAW grenade launchers. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
In recent months, foreign countries have been massively transferring various weapons and military equipment to Ukraine. Such military-technical assistance covers many areas and includes products of various classes. At the same time, there is a certain imbalance. So, some areas are given increased attention, and large quantities of products are delivered, while other systems arrive in insufficient quantities or remain at the level of promises.
Infantry weapons
The bulk of deliveries in terms of quantity is made up of a variety of weapons for the infantry and ground forces. First of all, these are anti-tank missile systems and grenade launchers of a number of types. According to recent reports, approx. 70 thousand such products. This number includes approx. 10 thousand American FGM-148 Javelin ATGMs, up to 7 thousand British NLAWs and about 1 thousand German Panzerfaust 3. Foreign countries also shipped outdated RPGs and ATGMs of a number of types.
Several NATO countries supply Ukrainian formations with MANPADS at once. First of all, these are American FIM-92 Stingers in the amount of more than 3 thousand units. In addition, Germany found 2,7 thousand old Soviet Strela-2s in warehouses, a significant part of which are unusable. The UK helped with the supply of its Starstreak missiles in a portable version and on a self-propelled air defense system.
Party weapons and other products from Greece, February 2022. Photo by the Greek Ministry of Defense
The supply of small arms continues. For example, Greece provided 20 Soviet-style assault rifles, Belgium supplied 5 old automatic rifles, and Germany sent a hundred machine guns. Smaller shipments also arrived from other countries. Various countries sent a total of several tens of millions of cartridges of various types. The Bundeswehr and other armies were able to allocate at least 100 hand grenades.
Armored Assistance
The first promises about the transfer of armored fighting vehicles were made back in January, but the actual deliveries began later. At the same time, there are problems of limited supply volumes and de-unification of equipment, and the most necessary and important samples simply do not fall into aid projects.
To date, Poland and the Czech Republic have allocated about 280-300 tanks T-72 old modifications. Despite all the requests, other tanks, incl. modern models have not yet been obtained and probably will not work in the future.
A limited number of infantry fighting vehicles, also old models, are expected. These are more than 120 BMP-1s from Greece, less than a dozen Czech BVP-1s, and up to 36 M-80As from Slovenia. At the same time, the United States and several other countries sent up to 330 obsolete M113 armored personnel carriers. The Netherlands supplies similar machines YPR-756. It was reported that 300 such items could be transferred, but the actual volume of deliveries is much less. Canada recently announced a future shipment of 39 newer LAV III armored personnel carriers.
Polish T-72M tanks on their way to Ukraine, April 2022. Photo by Telegram / ChDambiev
Of great interest are the deliveries of armored vehicles. A number of countries in one quantity or another transmit such equipment of different models with different characteristics and capabilities. Thus, the UK allocated 120 armored vehicles of several types. Smaller batches come from other countries. For example, Estonia sent a total of 7 Mamba Mk 2 vehicles.
Artillery and rockets
Foreign countries are trying to help the Kyiv regime with the supply of cannon and rocket artillery. At first, such assistance was limited and faced challenges. Thus, Estonia took quite a long time to issue a permit for the transfer of only 9 D-30 howitzers. Then a number of countries, by joint efforts, scored only a few hundred mortars of various calibers. At the same time, deliveries of artillery ammunition, first of the Soviet type, began in February.
In the future, deliveries of towed artillery continued. Several countries, mainly the United States, have contributed more than 110 M777 howitzers, as well as 150-200 thousand rounds for them. Italy and Estonia donated an unnamed number of FH-70 guns.
The supply of self-propelled systems attracted much attention, but they are much smaller. Thus, Belgium and Norway transferred to Ukraine about 30 M109 self-propelled guns of various modifications. 20 Dana products arrived from the Czech Republic; from Poland - 18 Krab cars. France allocated no more than 15-20 units. ACS CAESAR. After long promises, Germany and the Netherlands handed over only 12 PzH 2000 vehicles to the Kyiv regime.
A batch of American M777 guns, May 2022. Photo by the US Department of Defense
The same is true with rocket artillery. Practically from February-March, foreign states sent rounds for such systems to Ukraine, but were in no hurry to ship combat vehicles. Only later, the Czech Republic and Greece handed over several dozen old RM-70 MLRS. A few weeks ago, the process of transferring American-made M270 and M142 products began. The total volume of these deliveries does not exceed 10-12 units, a few more machines are only promised so far.
Aviation and air defense
An interesting situation is observed in the field aviation technology and air systems. Foreign countries supply many different unmanned aerial vehicles free of charge and on a commercial basis. 30-40 Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UAVs received a lot of publicity and dubious fame. Hundreds of reconnaissance vehicles of various types have arrived from a number of countries. The US and allies are also supplying hundreds of loitering munitions such as the Switchblade 300/600 or the Phoenix Ghost.
In the field of manned aviation, the situation is worse. In fact, only a few Mi-17 helicopters, previously destined for Afghanistan, have been handed over. The possibility of supplying combat aircraft and helicopters was repeatedly mentioned, but such proposals did not come to fruition. Moreover, several potential suppliers openly refused to share aircraft.
At the same time, deliveries of anti-aircraft weapons are going on, and they also face characteristic difficulties. So, Slovakia shipped S-300P air defense systems, but these products were destroyed before they were put on duty. Germany has not yet handed over the long-promised Gepard ZSU and their ammunition. She also announced the delivery of IRIS-T air defense systems - but only when they are manufactured. They are not going to transfer cash items from the park of their own army. Also in the plans remains the delivery of the NASAMS complex.
British armored car Wolfhound at the Ukrainian training ground. Photo Telegram / BMPD
On the water and on the shore
Ukraine has almost lost its naval forces, but attempts are still being made to restore them. Thus, foreign shipyards continue to fulfill previously placed orders for the construction of boats of various types. At the same time, the timely execution of such orders is not guaranteed, and it is not clear whether the current Kyiv regime will have time to receive them.
In particular, small patrol boats of the Defiant and Fearless projects are being built right now in the United States. Six units of such equipment are planned to be transferred to Ukraine in the near future, as part of the latest aid package. Then a batch of 17 more boats is expected.
Attempts are being made to strengthen the defense of the coast with the help of missile weapons. So, a couple of obsolete coastal complexes with Harpoon missiles were received from Denmark. The UK has provided 200 modern Brimstone missiles for ground use. Plans have been reported for the supply of French Exocet PCs, but they have not yet been implemented.
More ambitious plans are being made, but they do not have real prospects. Thus, the possibility of transferring LCS “littoral ships” to Ukraine is being discussed. Obviously, in its current state, the Ukrainian Navy will not be able to master and put into operation such a complex “gift”.
Noticeable difference
Thus, foreign countries are trying to send various military-technical assistance to Ukraine, but in fact the situation looks more complicated and interesting. In some areas, active and massive deliveries are taking place, in others, slower rates are observed, and in some areas, everything is still reduced to single deliveries and loud promises.
One of the Slovenian BMP M-80A for Ukraine, June 2022. Photo Telegram / BMPD
The United States and its European allies have so far performed well only in the supply of infantry weapons. Tens of thousands of small arms and anti-tank missile systems were shipped to the Kyiv regime. Despite the limited or even dubious effect, such supplies may continue.
In the field of ground equipment and weapons, as well as in the field of aviation, the situation looks ambiguous. The absolute number of products delivered is quite large, at least hundreds. However, this is not enough to cover all the needs of the Ukrainian army, especially given the losses incurred and the ongoing damage. The supply of tens or hundreds of thousands of ammunition looks quite large, but is also not of decisive importance.
In some areas, assistance is virtually non-existent. Despite all the promises, Ukraine has not yet received modern tanks and air defense systems, combat aircraft or ships. The timing of the transfer of such assistance has been repeatedly postponed. At the same time, there is reason to believe that some types of products will not be shipped at all.
Obvious reasons
In general, a fairly simple and obvious trend is visible. Foreign states are ready to transfer quickly and in large quantities only relatively cheap products that are available in parts and in warehouses in large quantities. In other cases, at least temporary difficulties arise, and in some areas, deliveries are excluded in principle.
German air defense system IRIS-T. Photo by Diehl Defense
In addition to economics, there are also political reasons. Foreign military and political leadership suggests that modern weapons and equipment pose a particular danger to the Russian army, and their appearance will cause an undesirable reaction. In this regard, modern rocket or artillery systems, if they are supplied, are only in limited quantities.
Thus, it is obvious that foreign "allies" of Ukraine provide assistance only taking into account their own interests. They are not at all willing to sacrifice their own security and budgets - even while demonstrating loyalty to Washington and Kyiv. This circumstance affects the plans and the course of actual deliveries, and also makes it possible to predict what further military-technical assistance will be.
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