Military Review

What is the reason for the decline in the growth rate of the Russian economy?

35
What is the reason for the decline in the growth rate of the Russian economy?Recently, World Bank experts published a forecast of changes in GDP in many countries around the world. The main trend of this forecast was the global decline in growth. Russia was among the majority of countries whose GDP growth in the current year and year 2013 should decrease. According to early prognostic estimates, GDP growth in the Russian Federation should have been about 3,8%, however, during the year, the World Bank changed its estimate and suggested that the annual growth would be no more than 3,5% over 2012 a year. Next year, WB experts predict a reduction in Russia's GDP growth to 3,6%, with an initial forecast of 4,1-4,2%.


Considering the published figures of the World Bank forecast, which is headquartered in Washington, one would have thought that the experts who were involved in predicting the change in GDP in Russia reacted to our country too biased and tried to do everything not to notice Russian success. However, such an opinion can be safely discarded as clearly contrived, since the World Bank has published quite negative forecasts for reducing the growth rate not only in relation to the Russian economy, but also in relation to, in particular, the American economy, and the world as a whole. This suggests that there is no purposeful selectivity of who needs to make the necessary posts, and whom to put in a minus in the actions of Jim Yong Kean (WB President) and his analysts when forecasting. Therefore, the forecast can be taken quite seriously.

If you pay attention to the projected inhibition of Russian GDP growth by 0,3% per year, then this visually quite small figure may initially not cause concern, however, in the economy, any inhibition has its own reasons, as well as consequences that can manifest themselves in the near future.

First you need to compare the indicators of Russian GDP growth for 2012 a year with the growth rates for previous years, as well as with those of other countries of the world. In the first case, the comparison is clearly not comforting. The fact is that 3,5% growth is the lowest indicator of GDP growth over the past fifteen years, unless, of course, the default 1998 and the peak 2009 are considered from the point of view of the economic crisis. But if everything seems to be clear with the default and crisis, what is preventing the Russian economy today from reaching the target level of growth? It would seem that oil prices have long been below the level of $ 105 dollars. In recent months, the price has gone beyond the mark of $ 110 per barrel of oil. But even this oil positive in a strange way does not allow the Russian economic system to jerk up, demonstrating serious growth. What could be the reason for this state of affairs?

One reason in this case can not be said. World Bank experts, like a number of Russian economic experts, practically unanimously call several prerequisites for a fall in the level of economic growth in Russia.

The first prerequisite is that Russia is increasingly entering the system of the global economy. Russia's recent entry into the World Trade Organization confirms this fact. In this case, they usually say that we are still strangers at this celebration of life, but only the holiday is not yet felt on other streets ... The world economic situation today is such that only those states of the world whose economies continue to fall are showing significant growth nowhere to go In all countries of the world that have the status of developed or actively developing, the growth rate of the economy slows down this year. Even China, which in recent years has hit the world with double-digit economic growth, quite unexpectedly went down and this year, according to the State Bureau of Statistics of China, will show an increase in 7,6%, and according to the World Bank, no more than 7,4% (as you can see, close). If we talk about other BRICS countries, growth in India was reduced to 6,1% on an annualized basis, growth in South Africa will not exceed 3,2%, Brazilian figures are 3,4-3,5% with 7,5% growth in 2010 year.

This once again suggests that Russia is becoming one of those cogs of the global economy, which is affected by a distributed load of total financial negative. On the one hand, Russia has been waiting for a long time to become a part of the world economy, but only today, the awareness of itself by this very part imposes additional responsibility and often makes unpopular decisions.

The premise of the second is precisely due to the fact that such decisions in the Russian Government are trying to be postponed “for later”. In other words, everything that can stimulate economic growth today looks quite aggressive in relation to the social policy announced by the state. Stimulation of economic growth, obviously, may be associated with additional investments in the real sector of the economy, but for the time being, Russia cannot afford to make such investments. The reason for this is the need for cuts in state-funded programs of social importance, and this cut-off can provoke citizens' discontent and protest relations in society.

In this regard, too hot heads have already begun to draw very strange conclusions. They conclude that Putin’s supposedly “golden age”, when the treasury was bursting with petrodollars and thus filling the economy, is leaving. Such an idea is served with a kind of unexplainable piety. Like, now we will see how stagnation will eat up the Russian economy, and put a fat cross on Putin's epoch, because it (the economy) is supposedly fully focused on trading in hydrocarbon raw materials ...

However, with all due respect to those experts who believe that the Russian economy will never get out from under the oil and gas dependence, I would like them to object. The fact is that if the Russian financial system were entirely based on the oil and gas sector, the World Bank would not give out 3,5% forecast, but give all 5% growth, and even more. It is painful for such a rise in the raw material economy a figure in 5% and higher with sufficiently high oil prices suitable. But the fall in Russia's GDP growth rates gives food for thought that over the past few years, the percentage of the impact of the commodity sector on the entire Russian economic model has declined. No, of course, one cannot say that Russia finally finally got off the oil needle and turned to a diversified economy. Oil and gas revenues still play too large a role in the formation of the Russian budget, but the fall in growth figures against the background of consistently high oil prices indicates that diversification measures are being taken, and, moreover, they work. One proof of this is the fantastic growth of the Russian Internet economy. In this regard, Russia occupies one of the leading places in the world. To judge this, it is enough to mention the number of growth of the Internet economy in the Russian Federation in the first half of this year: 14,9%. If this rate is maintained, the annual growth expected by economists can leave around 30%! The only pity is that the Internet economy itself is still only one hundredth of the total Russian financial system ...

Moreover, the words about ending a certain “golden age” are generally more like nonsense, since in Russia the overwhelming majority of citizens can hardly call their life a sample of the past 10 anniversary truly golden. Yes, people who had the opportunity to have a hand in oil and gas revenues, of course, can talk about a certain “golden time”, but most likely, these people still have everything chocolate ... With any growth and fall in GDP, they have everything chocolate ...

If we continue to talk about the end of a certain epoch, it’s not the era of Vladimir Putin that ends, but the era of old approaches to the development of the economic system developed by Western experts long before the appearance of Vladimir Putin himself. The financial laws by which the world lives during the last decades, obviously, are becoming obsolete. And if someone decides to challenge this, then it is completely incomprehensible why the decline in growth is observed not only in Russia, but throughout the developed and relatively developed world, if everything is so good and cloudless around.

Of course, negative changes in the Russian economy, as an integral part of the global economy, can lead to negative consequences in the life of the country. And in order not to repeat the fate of Greeks who have been loaned to their ears, or of Americans who have sat down on their own printing press, it is necessary to proceed to the use of new levers to stimulate the economy. One such leverage could be trade integration with its closest neighbors. Mutually beneficial economic cooperation with Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus is fully capable of spurring the opening of new jobs, which in itself can drag the Russian economy forward. In addition, the development of the banking and insurance systems in the Russian Federation can be a lever for development. Regional growth can help increase growth. In particular, the wealth of the Far East alone is of such magnitude that their rational and timely development will breathe life-giving power into the economy of such a large region and attract huge investments.

However, any economic lever of Russia has its main drawback: as soon as it begins to set in motion capital, it immediately grows with bureaucratic and corruption rust ... And here the government must demonstrate that the economy is free from this rust to give reason to declare that their era is passing.
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  1. Trofimov174
    Trofimov174 11 October 2012 08: 30
    +10
    The growth, reduction of debts and accumulated reserves, which the "bloody Putin dictatorship" achieved over the previous 10 years, is enough for the Russian economy to grow by inertia for the next 5-10 years, despite the surrounding world economic armageddon.
    PS: News in pursuit of the article: http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/23483/
    1. Vadivak
      Vadivak 11 October 2012 09: 17
      +1
      Quote: Trofimov174
      debt reduction and accumulated reserves .... the next 5-10 years, the Russian economy grew by inertia,


      Disappointing, but quite expected news was the fresh conclusion of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation on the draft budget for 2013 and the planning period of 2014-2015: they do not allow fulfilling the election promises of the current president regarding the costs of education, science and infrastructure.

      Currently, the draft budget is still under consideration by the State Duma.

      Link http://lenta.ru/news/2012/10/10//less/

      1. Trofimov174
        Trofimov174 11 October 2012 09: 30
        0
        "Although the strong cuts in spending increase the risks of slowing economic growth, the government faced a different task, namely: a minimum budget deficit without tax increases. In fact, some of these revenues can be offset by private investment, but in conditions of continued capital outflow this is impossible. In any case, the government's course towards maintaining the tax burden should also affect the increase in the investment attractiveness of the Russian economy, so while the volume of investments at the level of 25% of GDP by 2015 is quite real. " (from)
        http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/17758
        Not everything is as one-sided as you see.
      2. dimanf
        dimanf 11 October 2012 11: 25
        -2
        Quote: Vadivak
        Disappointing, but quite expected news was the fresh conclusion of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation on the draft budget for 2013 and the planning period of 2014-2015: they do not allow fulfilling the election promises of the current president regarding the costs of education, science and infrastructure.


        this was understandable even when he made these empty campaign promises.
        less than half a year has passed, and populism has already become apparent.
        1. Hon
          Hon 11 October 2012 11: 31
          0
          The problem is that he is trying to fulfill these promises, but in the face of falling GDP growth, the growth of social spending can be fatal. Example Greece a high level of budget spending with a low level of production led the country to default.
          1. dimanf
            dimanf 11 October 2012 12: 15
            -2
            Quote: Hon
            The problem is that he is trying to fulfill these promises, but in the face of falling GDP growth, the growth of social spending can be fatal.


            GDP is no longer growing? age is not that?

            as the people say: "3.14 to get naked - do not move boxes"
      3. mongoose
        mongoose 11 October 2012 13: 05
        -2
        Vadivak, do you know at least one five-year plan whose plan was fully implemented? laughing
      4. nikoli25
        nikoli25 11 October 2012 18: 18
        0
        feed ru, this is a lying site, there’s nothing to link to it
    2. Mnemonics
      Mnemonics 12 October 2012 04: 18
      +2
      It has been said more than once that the Russian economy is growing not thanks to, but in spite of the efforts of such organizations as the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance (in the past) and other entities that have followed and monitor the organization of the transfer of finance to the United States. They "care" about limiting the technological development of production, and increasing the extraction of minerals for sale. But recently, something has changed, money for re-equipment and modernization and the construction of a new production is being invested despite the squeals of the liberals. Therefore, the percentage of GDP growth and industrial production is actually high, although in monetary terms it is distorted and accompanied by propaganda again, they say you don't know how to do anything, sell what you have (oil, gas, timber, etc.)
  2. erased
    erased 11 October 2012 08: 35
    +11
    The technical, scientific and financial reserve left over from the USSR is coming to an end. But the Russian Federation does not have its strengths and capabilities or they are extremely small. Oil and gas hold the bar at some level, but these are the last forces.
    The country may collapse not because of the intrigues of external enemies, but stupidly because of its own fifth column in the person of corrupt officials of all ranks, as well as amateur temporary workers in power.
    And the saddest thing is - even seeing a way out of the pit, no one can do anything. And who can - will not give.
    Out!
    1. Vadivak
      Vadivak 11 October 2012 09: 05
      +7
      What is the reason for the decline in the growth rate of the Russian economy?

      Probably not least with greed, the mark-up on goods (mainly Chinese), products and services is at least 100% (for "decent" speculators, for dishonest ones from 400%), and this is without taking into account overhead costs. since it does not bring super profits
      1. dimanf
        dimanf 11 October 2012 11: 28
        +4
        Quote: Vadivak
        Probably not least with greed,


        the example of greed is payments for a communal apartment.
        1. Trofimov174
          Trofimov174 11 October 2012 12: 07
          -4
          Make money so that these payments do not bother you.
          1. dimanf
            dimanf 11 October 2012 12: 18
            +2
            Quote: Trofimov174

            Make money so that these payments do not bother you.


            and what does it have to do with it?
            the question is about the greed of state monopolies !!!
            1. Trofimov174
              Trofimov174 11 October 2012 14: 04
              +4
              Naturally, state monopolies are to blame, who else. My neighbor also complains that his state is tearing himself to pieces, and he works as a plumber and drinks so much vodyari per month that for the price of this vodyara he could pay all taxes for the rest of his life. Find a normal job? What for? I’ll complain about the authorities better, maybe it will become easier.
              1. Samsebenaum
                Samsebenaum 11 October 2012 19: 27
                0
                "This proves once again that Russia is becoming one of those cogs of the global economy ..."
                This phrase is from the text. Russia is now just a cog ....
                Whom to "thank" for this?
                Anyway, stop praising official No. 1. What is done can only be smeared with a thin layer.
                There are a hundred times more negative processes.

                And the examples are weak in that they have counterexamples.
                My neighbor doesn’t eat vodka, he just can’t legally get a job at state-owned enterprises.
                The medical commission cannot be banal. Now everything is so tricky and complicated, requirements as to astronauts.
                What the hell did that? Do you want to scuff people’s nerves?
                The welder is golden hands, and is interrupted from bread to water and occasional hacks.
        2. mongoose
          mongoose 11 October 2012 13: 06
          -3
          no problem, pay yourself for a neighbor
  3. borisst64
    borisst64 11 October 2012 09: 17
    +10
    In 2008, 9 out of 10 of these analysts shouted that there were no prerequisites for the crisis, another month and everything would go fine. And now everyone is climbing out of the skin predicting an even greater decline. Those who rule the world do not devote these specialists to their plans.
    1. Vadivak
      Vadivak 11 October 2012 09: 24
      +6
      Quote: borisst64
      Those who rule the world do not devote these specialists to their plans.


      Yes, there is a very narrow circle of limited people. It has representatives all over the world. Many thousands of experts are engaged in Russia alone. At the very top, of course, there is a small circle of personally familiar people who determine the overall strategy. This does not mean that they are constantly sitting and thinking somewhere. They generally can not sit and not think. Their means of control are a detailed developed and tested system for manipulating the masses, peoples, and governments.
    2. Trofimov174
      Trofimov174 11 October 2012 14: 27
      +2
      So it was, the first year of the crisis, the Russian economy fell under 10%, and after two years, Russia showed the highest rate of economic recovery, better only in Japan. As a result, by the end of 2011, the economy recovered by 80%, and today it has exceeded the pre-crisis level. For example, in my city this same crisis was palpable during the first two or three months of 2009, when salaries were delayed, the 13th was not paid, and that's all construction sites froze. Then everything quickly resolved. So the analysts were right in my case. As for the recession, then learn to read carefully. We do not have a recession, the economy is growing, maybe a little less than expected, but still an order of magnitude faster than some of the brothers in misfortune.
  4. sazyckin
    sazyckin 11 October 2012 09: 26
    -7
    After the lines World Bank Specialists negative continuation of the article, you can not read. Another delirium of American litter wassat
  5. dark_65
    dark_65 11 October 2012 10: 07
    0
    The economy is of course still weak .. fact, but the transition to new forms of production is still ongoing, and this is also a fact.
    We’re not so bad against the global background. Like it’s not cool. Oil dollars are not all with us, but it’s not so easy to break the rubble of corruption, the old production base, and so on, and for 10 years.
    1. Hon
      Hon 11 October 2012 11: 19
      +2
      Quote: dark_65
      to break the rubble of corruption, the old production base, and other things, and for 10 years? is not so simple.

      So far we have not even come close to breaking the engine of corruption. Corruption is only getting stronger.
  6. baltika-18
    baltika-18 11 October 2012 10: 37
    +3
    I probably lagged behind life, what is the Internet economy, who will enlighten in brief. Thanks in advance.
    1. Hon
      Hon 11 October 2012 11: 23
      +2
      Network access, electronic bidding and investment in online companies. This is all sorts of VK and classmates, online stores, advertising on sites and more. In general, everything related to no.
      1. baltika-18
        baltika-18 11 October 2012 11: 48
        +1
        Quote: Hon


        Hon

        Thank you.
  7. baltika-18
    baltika-18 11 October 2012 11: 51
    +7
    The Internet economy is certainly good. But the economy is primarily plants and factories, agriculture, power plants and transport. Unfortunately, you won’t eat air.
  8. Bigriver
    Bigriver 11 October 2012 12: 10
    +2
    Nothing is clear at the beginning of the article!
    The WB already in March this year predicted the same 3,5 percent.
    The IMF forecast 3,3 percent.
    The most optimistic forecast was given by our Ministry of Economic Development - 3,7 percent.
    All this was expected at the beginning of the year.
    So what's the news then?
    By the way, in his pre-election speeches, Putin himself admitted that this year there will be a decline associated with a fall in world market conditions.
  9. I-16M
    I-16M 11 October 2012 12: 40
    0
    I'm certainly not an economist, but what is the growth of economic growth? !! The last growth was somewhere in the sunset of the USSR. And the last decades the recession does not stop.
    1. mongoose
      mongoose 11 October 2012 13: 08
      0
      n-dya, and did not try to read statistics? or do Marxist mantras forbid?
  10. Nechai
    Nechai 11 October 2012 17: 27
    +3
    Quote: mongoose
    n-dya, and did not try to read statistics?

    Russian reforms in facts and figures - I.G. Kalabekov
    http://kaivg.narod.ru/
    Dmitry, look here if it’s really interesting.
    Yesterday, the Samara government announced the creation of a revival program horse-drawn carts and cultivation of arable land by horses. Not only modern carts, on pneumatic tires, etc., will be produced, but also various agricultural equipment - plows, seeders, reapers, etc. "Forward to the past!" This main path of development was chosen in connection with the more efficient economy of horses, in comparison with tractors and soulless combines, according to the conclusion of the Nashin managers.
    Or are we preparing for the post-apocalypse?
  11. Samsebenaum
    Samsebenaum 11 October 2012 19: 54
    +1
    What is the reason for the decline in the growth rate of the Russian economy?

    I’ll answer as I understand it ...

    - with the unsuitability of senior government officials
    - with exorbitant greed and selfish interests
    - with nepotism, which means mutual responsibility
    - with impunity for the untouchables
    - with the psychology of parasites, the essence of which is to suck the blood of a donor nation
    - with a lack of motivation for the revival of Russia
    - with lies, cynicism and disregard for the people.
    1. Karabin
      Karabin 11 October 2012 20: 52
      +3
      Quote: Samsebenum
      What is the reason for the decline in the growth rate of the Russian economy?

      I’ll answer as I understand it ...

      - with the unsuitability of senior government officials
      - with exorbitant greed and selfish interests
      - with nepotism, which means mutual responsibility
      - with impunity for the untouchables
      - with the psychology of parasites, the essence of which is to suck the blood of a donor nation
      - with a lack of motivation for the revival of Russia
      - with lies, cynicism and disregard for the people.

      Add:
      - with the willingness of the people to endure the above.
  12. APASUS
    APASUS 11 October 2012 21: 49
    0
    This once again suggests that Russia is becoming one of those cogs of the global economy, which is affected by the distributed burden of the general financial negative. On the one hand, Russia has long been waiting for precisely to become part of the global economy,

    The phrase caught on!
    Yes, it’s not getting, no matter how!
    The last crisis began in the United States and the total volume of GDP decline amounted to (according to various sources, from 1–2,8%). At the same time, Russia, according to various sources, falls by 12–14% of GDP. That's the question ....... ...... what part of that world we are, since we are so banged!
    The employee has been visiting Italy for the last five years at my place of work. So, the bus cost 10 euros and it costs so. The Italians don’t understand the cries about the crisis. They simply began to add compensation from the state for 1000 euros for the purchase of a new car and children's allowances more.And in Italy, the crisis !?
    If we have a crisis? Why do not prices fall .......... gasoline, products ..........
  13. Samsebenaum
    Samsebenaum 11 October 2012 22: 11
    +1
    Here are the rates the USSR had in% at the beginning of the period taken as 100%

    Countries 1951-1955

    USSR - 162%
    USA -124%
    Great Britain - 115%
    France - 124%
    Germany - 154%
    Japan - 143%

    In 1951-1955, economic growth in the USSR was higher than in all other countries, and only in the next five-year period did the country yield first to Japan.
  14. Zlyden.Zlo
    Zlyden.Zlo 12 October 2012 02: 49
    -1
    laughs the name. Our economy depends only on oil
    1. Bigriver
      Bigriver 12 October 2012 05: 05
      0
      "our economy depends only on oil"

      In the annual growth of the economy, the share of oil and gas revenues in recent years, ranges from 23 to 33 percent.
  15. Tektor
    Tektor 12 October 2012 18: 33
    +1
    The only problem is that these "needles" are few: oil, gas, metals, weapons, and that's it. If there were 100 of them, or better than 1000, then it would be pointless to shoot from any of them. Shyutka. And we have much to grow, we just need to organize a loan from ourselves and rationally spend what we have borrowed so as not to lose the opportunity to give it back ...
  16. delakelv124
    delakelv124 12 October 2012 19: 47
    0
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  17. vassso1
    vassso1 14 October 2012 22: 16
    0
    It is only necessary to take Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 from the Americans, and build a couple of dozen kindergartens for this money. Putin is doing everything right. Amerikos do not like it and create their USAID, and sponsor whoever needs it. We got it already.