Military Review

“A hypothetical Israeli strike on Iran will bring the entire Islamic world to motion”

21
“A hypothetical Israeli strike on Iran will bring the entire Islamic world to motion”Already, Iran has economic problems due to its blockade.

According to media reports, Tehran raised the issue of the gradual suspension of uranium enrichment, and as a retaliatory step, he expects to soften international sanctions. However, Washington is of the opinion that the implementation of the Iranian plan does not mean that Iran will not be able to create a nuclear weapons. The US would like Iran to stop enriching uranium to 20%, take the already accumulated reserves of material abroad and close its processing plant.

Iran poses a threat to world elites as one of the pillars of alternative ideology

The political moves around the enrichment of uranium in Iran are most likely only the tip reflection of the powerful bargaining that goes between the largest political forces. In my opinion, those technologies possessed by Iran, in principle, make it possible to obtain nuclear weapons, to make nuclear charges. It is extremely difficult to track exactly whether it will be done or not, but the question is different about what the bargaining is about. The main thing is the issues of war and peace. Why does Iran need nuclear charges? It is clear that this is a defensive weapon, a deterrent weapon. Iran cannot unleash a nuclear war in conditions when powerful NATO forces exist. It is clear to everyone.

This is first, and secondly, double standards are applied. It is well known that Israel possesses nuclear weapons, although it is not officially recognized, but the non-proliferation status has long been violated, and various Israeli politicians, not embarrassed, repeatedly mentioned this in the media. Now it would be fair to talk about the balance of power, about the weapon of deterrence, and in the way it has always been interpreted before, that is, it is good, not evil. Nevertheless, Iran poses a threat to world elites as one of the pillars of an alternative ideology; he violates their scenario by proposing an alternative ideology for the development of the world. And besides, he is the mainstay of the main competitor of the United States in terms of economic and military potential, that is, China. Therefore, there is bargaining, how to solve their problems, without turning it into a direct clash with China, into direct nuclear bombardments, and so on.

The situation around Iran will develop smoothly: it will be taken by starvation and undermining from within

The fact that the United States introduced a powerful naval force into the Persian Gulf is, in my view, an indicator that they are not preparing a strike. This is an informational and psychological action that distracts from the main idea. In the Persian Gulf, Iran has a very powerful coast guard and defense, and, from my point of view, Iran will be emaciated and undermined from within. Already, Iran has economic problems due to its blockade and sanctions. The worst thing that can happen is a violation of its economic, trade and other ways and ties with China through the Central Asian republics of the former USSR. This course of action, I think, will be a priority.

Among other things, tension around Iran is being intensified in connection with the situation in Syria, aggression against Syria is gaining strength. Mina hit the Turks, and this as a provocation anyone could have done, and the fact of shelling the Syrian territory is taking place. The explosion of the situation in Syria and the spread of tension towards Iran are quite possible. But to conduct massive military operations on the territory of Iran itself, given the nature of the terrain, is rather difficult.

From my point of view, the situation around Iran will develop smoothly, without abrupt changes, without open military aggression. Yes, and the current threats from Israel, it seems to me, are not realized. A hypothetical Israeli strike on Iran, especially with the use of nuclear warheads, will put the entire Islamic world in motion, the whole environment of Israel, and this can lead to completely unpredictable consequences. I think this scenario does not suit anyone.
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  1. kNow
    kNow 11 October 2012 15: 19
    +4
    "A hypothetical Israeli strike on Iran will set the entire Islamic world in motion" - will not, the Muslim world is very fragmented. They will kill themselves.
    1. Su24
      Su24 11 October 2012 16: 21
      -1
      Nothing of the kind, if Israel itself starts aggression against the Muslim state, it will just unite the surrounding countries.
      1. kNow
        kNow 11 October 2012 16: 39
        0
        Quote: Su24

        Nothing of the kind, if Israel itself starts aggression against the Muslim state, it will just unite the surrounding countries

        I understand you, you are based on history, but the world has changed
      2. Averias
        Averias 11 October 2012 17: 17
        +1
        Let me doubt that the crowds of fanatics on the streets burning flags because of the film are not yet rallying. Why is it asking them is an attempt to smash the Sunnis with Shiites and Kurds to smithereens. The answer is obvious, so what kind of rallying is it? There are rich Middle East and poor Middle East. And this is an abyss.
      3. Beck
        Beck 11 October 2012 18: 31
        +2
        I do not think that Israel alone will strike. Most likely will not. As did not respond to the shelling of Israeli territory by Iraq, in the first war, by the scad.

        With Iran, however, is completely different. Iran Shiites. The rest of the Arab world is sunni. In addition to a significant part of Iraq and a small part of Syria. The massacre between Shiites and Sunnis has been going on for 12 centuries since the assassination of the righteous caliph Ali, who is revered by the Shiites.

        The weakening of a long-standing enemy, the Shiites of Iran, does not stir up the Sunni Arabs. They rejoice at this. And we should not forget, I don’t know how true it is, the info in which Maudi Arabia asked the United States to bomb Iran’s nuclear center 4-6 years ago. Leading Iran’s nuclear bomb is not only a threat to Israel, but to all Sunnis in the Middle East.
        1. Pimply
          Pimply 11 October 2012 19: 21
          +2
          They are not just Shiites, they are mainly also Persians.
        2. wolverine7778
          wolverine7778 11 October 2012 19: 46
          0
          Beck plus.
          With Iran, however, is completely different. Iran Shiites. The rest of the Arab world is sunni. In addition to a significant part of Iraq and a small part of Syria.
          You have forgotten Azerbaijan, though it will not help either, Shiism is still emerging now in Dagestan, but from the moment of the murder of Cherkeysky, everything will stop. In addition, Iran has been actively trying to use Shiites since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution. Often he succeeds if you look at Yemen or Lebanon. Yemeni Shiite rebels, as well as Lebanese Hezbollah, are under the powerful influence of Iran, which sometimes manages to play on the Sunni-Shia contradictions within the Arabs. However, this does not happen always and everywhere. Let us recall the Iranian-Iraqi war in 1980-88, during which Iran tried to use the Shiite majority in its own interests. However, this failed. Tehran then did not take into account that the Iraqi Arabs (it does not matter: Sunnis or Shiites) adhere to the Arab idea. Therefore, most of the Shiites were on the side of Saddam Hussein in that war against the Persians. Also now, as then, the Shiite Iraq will not be on the side of Iran. The only hope is Lebanese Hezbollah and Enamel)
      4. Pimply
        Pimply 11 October 2012 19: 20
        +2
        Are you laughing Are you up to date on disagreements between Sunnis and Shiites? In the surrounding countries, the Arabs are sleeping and see how Israel would quickly smash the Iranian reactors.
        1. thatupac
          thatupac 11 October 2012 22: 03
          +1
          Not Israel, but the United States, Not so much the United States as the weapons supplied by the United States. Without the United States, Israel does not dare to fart. It is proved by the last Lebanon war with the advance of Hezbollah.
          1. Pimply
            Pimply 11 October 2012 22: 14
            +1
            The last Lebanese? In what?

            Dear, Israel bombed the reactors on its own initiative, which, a couple of times, led to a cooling of relations with the United States. Yes, the USA has weight in Israel. But by no means absolute.
    2. FREGATENKAPITAN
      FREGATENKAPITAN 11 October 2012 17: 10
      +3
      This of course you mean Azerbaijan, which has its own interests in Iran .....
      So don’t flatter yourself ... all is not all ... but God forbid ... and then, as if Azerbaijan didn’t have to turn back on ....

      I suspect that now the rest of the diaspora will catch up and traditionally naminus me between the admiring each other .......... :)
      1. kNow
        kNow 11 October 2012 17: 28
        -1
        Quote: FREGATENKAPITAN
        This of course you mean Azerbaijan, which has its own interests in Iran ..

        Just in Azerbaijan, in the sphere of religion, wolves graze with sheep, as we commonly say ...
        Quote: FREGATENKAPITAN
        So do not flatter yourself ... all-not all ... but God flutter ..

        What am I talking about?
        Quote: FREGATENKAPITAN
        and then, as if Azerbaijan didn’t have to reverse the turn on ...

        I understand your concern, but we have a fairly sober-minded leadership.
        Quote: FREGATENKAPITAN
        I suspect that now the rest of the diaspora will catch up and traditionally naminus me in the breaks between admiring each other

        No need to pour your dislike to the place and out of place
    3. ughhh
      ughhh 12 October 2012 00: 35
      0
      By the way, according to one version, the "Islamic world movement" is exactly what America is striving for. Chaos on the other side of the planet.
  2. Sasha 19871987
    Sasha 19871987 11 October 2012 15: 32
    +1
    Yes, nothing will be there ... it’s just the Persian Gulf near which a very large amount of oil is transported ... it’s dangerous to do military conflicts there, they will quarrel, but, I think, it’s unlikely to reach the point of war
  3. igor67
    igor67 11 October 2012 15: 33
    0
    Sergey Lavrov: “We assume that Iran will not attack Israel with atomic weapons”
    Sergey Lavrov: “We assume that Iran will not attack Israel with atomic weapons” Photo: Reuters

    This statement was made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a meeting with the Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin in Moscow.

    Lavrov noted the reason why he expressed this opinion: millions of Arabs and Muslims living in and around Israel.

    Rivlin told Lavrov in the presence of a group of Knesset deputies that "Russia is the only country that can stop Iran’s nuclear program without any sanctions or military intervention."

    Lavrov replied that the military direction of Iran’s nuclear program has not yet been proven.

    “We do not automatically support this country, we hope that Israel understands all the difficulties and dangers that await stakeholders in this matter,” Lavrov said.

    Rivlin and Lavrov also held a private meeting without strangers. They discussed the situation in Syria, the problems of the international community, as well as the supply of Russian weapons to Bashar al-Assad, reports NRG.
    1. donchepano
      donchepano 11 October 2012 20: 24
      0
      if an official of Russia Lavrov, having secluded himself with a representative of Israel, was discussing the situation in Syria, then the decision to attack the latter was most likely made ...
      on the committee ... three hundred
  4. Andy061
    Andy061 11 October 2012 17: 13
    0
    The author is right ...
  5. nickname 1 and 2
    nickname 1 and 2 11 October 2012 18: 09
    0
    But what if the leader makes an announcement and the people go mad ???
    Take away the leader! Send them our Gorbachev, don’t hi, he’s leading them!

    But what if we chose Zhirik, would we be bombed ??? And if, ZY, then a new cold war or hot ???

    That China, quietly like a cat Vaska = my islands !!! Ahh, China is big! And there is nuclear weapons!
    And I feel sorry for Iran, I do not believe in their inferiority!
  6. Patriot
    Patriot 11 October 2012 18: 17
    0
    Do you know what it seems to me? As for the elections in Tan, it’s too late to strike. It seems to me too late to earn political dividends in the war.
    And, in the first time after the election, even if the Romney comes to power, it is unlikely that the amers will decide on aggression .. Moreover, this aggression still needs to be somehow motivated. For, as it seems to me, the UN has not completely degraded. I understand how amers and their allies will be able to motivate military action against the same Syria. With the help of sabotage on the same Syrian-Turkish border. And, judging by the last steps of Erdagan, Turkey has already embarked on this path of artificially fomenting war through provocations!
    But on the other side. Europe does not need this war for a number of reasons. Starting with the refugees and deaths of European soldiers and ending with oil at the level of 150-200 dollars per barrel.

    There is of course another THOUGHT! Not the most fun for our budget. Namely. According to experts, in the Persian Gulf at the moment there are only TWO UNCONTROLLED BARRELS WITH OIL - Iranian and Syrian. And, if these regimes fall and puppet pro-Western rule is established there, then the amers will be able to uncontrolledly steer oil prices! And, it is quite possible that having gained full control over oil barrels, Westerners will bring down oil and gas prices.
    Yes, and the price itself should fall after removing all military DUES!
    It has long been customary to consider a fair level of oil prices of $ 65-75 per barrel. And our budget is planned based on $ 110-115.
    THEREFORE, YES BEGIN IN RUSSIA, SERIOUS PROBLEMS AND SURE THE COMPRADORAL THRESHOLD Putin regime will fall.
    SOMEONE SAYS OIL FOR RUSSIA IS EVIL! Ah, DEAR OIL IS DEATH!
    BUT THIS IS THE QUESTION! WHAT SHOULD IT BE WITH CHINA? HOW I SEE THE WESTERN COUNTRIES ARE NOT INTERESTED IN LOW PRICES FOR HYDROCARBONS FOR CHINA !!!
    1. bubla5
      bubla5 11 October 2012 20: 30
      0
      This scenario will only benefit Russia, but it will be hard for the population, but the main thing is that the regime will change and it’s high time to get off oil and gas
      1. thatupac
        thatupac 11 October 2012 22: 08
        0
        And what will we earn?
        1. them
          them 11 October 2012 22: 35
          0
          Well, yes, factories for workers, land for peasants ... have already passed. Already was the good of Russia in 17m.
  7. bubla5
    bubla5 11 October 2012 18: 23
    0
    The entire Muslim world is modestly silent, as always.
    1. v53993
      v53993 11 October 2012 18: 40
      -1
      They are silent, they are silent. And they will also attack in silence. East is a delicate matter.
  8. Evgeny Petrovich
    Evgeny Petrovich 11 October 2012 19: 21
    0
    They used to say that amers would get stuck in Iraq, then there was such a conversation in Libya and about Yugoslavia, now about Syria and Iran. Nothing will happen. Amer does not give a damn about the unrest in the Arab world, it will be bad for the Arabs themselves, for us and a little Europe, well, they will support Europe, and they do not give a damn about us either.
    The only question is money, elections (they have) and acceptable losses. I personally would not have hoped for Arab unrest as a reason for restraining their further expansion in "Arabia"; they can be contained with active opposition from Russia and China.
    Everything else is an empty chatter, the same as now our talkers who are supposedly trying to somehow influence their language.
  9. donchepano
    donchepano 11 October 2012 20: 18
    +1
    The United States would like Iran to stop enriching and export the accumulated uranium abroad.
    When the United States asked for Yeltsin and he and Chornomordin gave almost all the stocks of weapons-grade plutonium and uranium to them for "storage"
    Now they wipe their feet on Russia
  10. nycsson
    nycsson 11 October 2012 21: 33
    -2
    The article is not about anything !!! negative
  11. Chukcha
    Chukcha 11 October 2012 21: 38
    +1
    Very similar to the actual state of affairs.
  12. Stasi.
    Stasi. 11 October 2012 22: 02
    -2
    If Israel strikes Iran, the unrest in the Muslim world will be strong, there will be another round of anti-Israeli marches and rallies, which will end. Whoever says anything, but in the Arab world there is no unity. An example of this is Syria. Against Syria are Turkey, Qatar, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Countries professing Islam and at the same time oppose the same Muslim country as Syria. If the Arab world were united, Israel would reckon with the interests of the Arabs and there would be stability in the Middle East.
    1. Pimply
      Pimply 11 October 2012 22: 16
      +1
      Countries practicing Sunni Islam do not oppose Syria, but against the Alawites, who hold leading posts in Syria, and support Sunni co-religionists.
      Secondly, Iran is not an Arab country. And besides, it’s also Shiite.
    2. wolverine7778
      wolverine7778 12 October 2012 09: 33
      0
      If Israel strikes Iran, the unrest in the Muslim world will be strong, there will be another round of anti-Israeli marches and rallies, which will end. Whoever says anything, but in the Arab world there is no unity.
      Hehe, the Persians adopted Shiism, in response to Arab oppression in ancient times.
      The Sunni world is primarily the Arabian monarchies, which last year overthrew the "socialist" regime of Gaddafi in Libya, and are now working to destroy the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis. The Shiite Islamic Republic of Iran is the main enemy of the Arabian monarchies, it is also Assad's main ally. Syria alawite Bashar al-Assad is Iran's only friend in the Arab world, which traditionally hates the Persians.
      Here on the map the alignment of forces of the Sunnis and Shiites)
      1. Beck
        Beck 12 October 2012 11: 30
        0
        Quote: wolverine7778
        Hehe, the Persians adopted Shiism, in response to Arab oppression in ancient times.


        Respected. This is not true. At first, it was only Muslim Arabs divided into Sunnis and Shiites. This is confirmed by today's Iraq, where there are Sunni Arabs and Shiite Arabs. And then the Iranians became the main Shiites.

        In the 8th century, one of Ali's claimants was killed in the struggle for the caliph’s throne. He was killed by causing about 30 stab wounds. Muslim Arabs are divided on this issue. Those Muslims who were against Ali and became later Sunnis (Sunnah biography of Muhammad). The same Muslims who were behind Ali became Shiites, proclaiming Ali the only righteous caliph.

        Since then, the massacre between Shiites and Sunnis has been carried out. They used to cut with knives. Now they blow up each other with explosives. Most of the crack in today's Iraq are Shiites and Sunnis, and they don’t agree on who Ali really was.

        Yes. You probably saw the processions of Shiite Muslims in Iran, when they strip themselves, their bodies, with knife blades and razors. So, it’s Shiites, slashing themselves, they give the memory of 30 stab wounds to Caliph Ali.
  13. schapchits
    schapchits 11 October 2012 22: 46
    -2
    Iran most likely specifically created a duck about enrichment of uranium, so that the United States began to spend a huge amount of money on a missile defense program and depleted the state budget. And this has already borne fruit, most recently the United States was on the verge of technical default! Purely amerovsky reception, to recall at least SOI

    Quote: Stasi.
    If the Arab world were united, Israel would reckon with the interests of the Arabs and there would be stability in the Middle East.

    Israel would not, under any circumstances, reckon with the Arabs, since in which case the United States would intervene in the conflict, and there was no one to protect Muslims.
  14. Beck
    Beck 12 October 2012 09: 50
    0
    Quote: schapchits
    and Muslims do not defend anyone.


    How is it not to whom? Islamists say Allah is great and omnipotent. So he will protect. Against Allah, the USA is nothing.
  15. Patriot
    Patriot 12 October 2012 10: 09
    0
    Comrades. But still ... I would really like to know your opinion regarding my version of the development of events in the conflict between the West and Iran and Syria.

    Namely, it’s too late to launch strikes before the elections in Tana. It seems to me too late to earn political dividends in the war.
    And, in the first time after the election, even if the Romney comes to power, it is unlikely that the amers will decide on aggression .. Moreover, this aggression still needs to be somehow motivated. For, as it seems to me, the UN has not completely degraded. I understand how amers and their allies will be able to motivate military action against the same Syria. With the help of sabotage on the same Syrian-Turkish border. And, judging by the last steps of Erdagan, Turkey has already embarked on this path of artificially fomenting war through provocations!
    But on the other side. Europe does not need this war for a number of reasons. Starting with the refugees and deaths of European soldiers and ending with oil at the level of 150-200 dollars per barrel.

    There is of course another THOUGHT! Not the most fun for our budget. Namely. According to experts, in the Persian Gulf at the moment there are only TWO UNCONTROLLED BARRELS WITH OIL - Iranian and Syrian. And, if these regimes fall and puppet pro-Western rule is established there, then the amers will be able to uncontrolledly steer oil prices! And, it is quite possible that having gained full control over oil barrels, Westerners will bring down oil and gas prices.
    Yes, and the price itself should fall after removing all military DUES!
    It has long been customary to consider a fair level of oil prices of $ 65-75 per barrel. And our budget is planned based on $ 110-115.
    THEREFORE, YES BEGIN IN RUSSIA, SERIOUS PROBLEMS AND SURE THE COMPRADORAL THRESHOLD Putin regime will fall.
    SOMEONE SAYS OIL FOR RUSSIA IS EVIL! Ah, DEAR OIL IS DEATH!
    BUT THIS IS THE QUESTION! WHAT SHOULD IT BE WITH CHINA? HOW I SEE THE WESTERN COUNTRIES ARE NOT INTERESTED IN LOW PRICES FOR HYDROCARBONS FOR CHINA !!!
  16. wolverine7778
    wolverine7778 12 October 2012 11: 31
    0
    Namely, it’s too late to launch strikes before the elections in Tana. It seems to me too late to earn political dividends in the war.
    And, in the first time after the election, even if the Romney comes to power, it is unlikely that the amers will decide on aggression ..

    Not all Syrian Sunnis are striving to establish a Sharia state, all the same, there are more rebels than Mujahideen, and they are more striving for a secular state, since such a form of government has been established in Syria and everyone is used to it. Therefore, the Yemeni scenario of the development of events looks quite realistic when the new authorities of Damascus, represented by secular leaders of the rebels, along with their supporters turn their weapons against the Mujahideen. At the same time, the countries of the United States and the West will send special forces to Syria, the attack on the forces of Sharia supporters will be conducted under the leadership of NATO generals, and the cities liberated by the Mujahideen will be bombed by American drones and Saudi aircraft (following the example of the same Yemen)