Military Review

Stanislav Tarasov: "Syrian time pressure" of Turkey

Stanislav Tarasov: "Syrian time pressure" of TurkeyRecently, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that "he does not want war with Syria, but military conflict is not excluded." According to him, “those who seek to test the“ containment policy ”pursued by Turkey are making a“ fatal mistake. ”In turn, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu noted that“ giving the Turkish parliament to the government a mandate to conduct cross-border operations is not declaring war on Syria, but in the context of a civil war taking place in neighboring Syria, Turkey should be ready for any development of events. "

It is a statement of the fact of the civil war in Syria on the part of Turkey that highlights the main nuance of the emerging difficult situation: Ankara understands that the recent shelling of its territory by Syria could have an unauthorized character from Damascus. According to international experts, in an environment where serious fights are fought between Assad’s army and opposition forces on the border with Turkey, the so-called “crazy shells” cannot be ruled out. And now, judging by the reports of Turkish print and electronic media, the situation in the border areas remains tense. As the BBC Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen writes, "this is not surprising, since the main supply route of the Syrian opposition passes through this zone, and any ill-considered step from any side could lead to an escalation of the conflict." Therefore, the main question arises: "Will Turkey decide to go to war with Syria?"

According to Mark Katz, a professor at George Mason University in Virginia, "Turkey, despite loud statements, is limited in maneuvers in the Syrian direction." First of all, because it is not supported by NATO partners, who are used to forcing others to “carry chestnuts out of fire”, and not vice versa. Moreover, according to Professor Katz, "Washington insists on guarantees of religious and ethnic pluralism in any outcome of the Syrian crisis, and Ankara seeks to strengthen the position of the Syrian Sunnis and to infringe upon the rights of the Syrian Kurds." In turn, many Russian experts are confident that if President Assad is still removed from power, then Syria is likely to fall into enclaves. One of these enclaves will be Kurdistan. In Iraq, as is known, after the overthrow of the regime of Saddam Hussein, the Kurds de facto became an independent state in the north of the country. If the main result of the Syrian crisis is the unification of the Syrian and Turkish Kurds - which cannot be ruled out - and later this alliance will be supported by the Iraqi Kurds, the situation in the Middle East will not qualitatively change Turkey. Therefore, Ankara should objectively be interested in establishing relations with Damascus, and not aggravate the situation. In the meantime, everything happens the other way around.

It is also noteworthy that at the end of August, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned about the danger of such a course of events. “The main thing is that our partners cannot stop,” said the head of Russia. “Already created an atmosphere of chaos in many territories, now the same policy is being continued in other countries, particularly in Syria. We warned that we should act carefully, not impose anything otherwise it will lead to chaos. " Therefore, when Turkey appealed to NATO, the EU and the UN Security Council to determine the position regarding the recent border incident with Syria, it was perceived as a kind of test on its part, revealing the balance of forces on the Syrian springboard. We are talking about the positions of the West, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other. NATO, the EU, and the Security Council condemned the shelling of Turkey’s territory by Syria. At the same time, they called on the parties to exercise "maximum restraint", since the armed conflict between the two neighboring countries destabilizes the situation throughout the Middle East. Moscow has also called for restraint Turkey. She recommended Ankara and Damascus to restore bilateral contacts, in order not only to jointly control the situation in the border area, but also to bring political and diplomatic "bridges" with each other.

As the Turkish newspaper Milli gazete writes in this connection, “after the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that the Syrian authorities presented the incident in Akchakala as a tragic incident, it became obvious that one end of the“ Syrian rope ”was in the hands of the Russians. The other is holding the West. And not only he. According to the newspaper Yeni Şafak, "in the Syrian crisis, in addition to the West, Russia and China, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Israel were directly tied," as well as the global "Muslim-Christian and Sunni-Shiite contradictions." Therefore, a difficult situation arises for Turkey: in spite of its earlier predictions, it turns out to be not only alone with Syria, but also becoming a hostage of great geopolitics. It should be noted that Turkish experts are talking about the impossibility of war between the two neighboring countries. So TRT presenter Ahmet Bahçejiler draws attention to the fact that "Turkey, having good relations with the West and with NATO, is very dependent on Russia and Iran in terms of oil and gas, therefore it is risky for it to make movements only in one of the parties." Nevertheless, there is a great danger that in the future, in preparing the document on the Syrian settlement, Turkey could be excluded from the peace process as “the party involved in the conflict”. Moreover, Turkish diplomacy has not prepared an alternate scenario for resolving the Syrian crisis, especially given the emergence of the Kurdistan state in the region.

Therefore, Moscow offered a way out of this situation. She called on Ankara and Damascus to restore bilateral contacts, in order not only to jointly control the situation in the border area, but also to bring political and diplomatic "bridges" with each other. It is difficult to say whether Turkish politicians will be able to do this, because it is a question of changing the adopted version of the Syrian crisis. Moreover, there is no political consensus on Turkey in this issue. The main opposition Republican People’s Party voted against the government’s proposal in parliament, and according to polls, the Turkish public is also strongly opposed to drawing the country into armed conflict with Syria. Plus, the fact that Turkey due to the crisis in Europe and the "Arab spring" in the region is entering a difficult period of development of its economy: a decline begins. So for Ankara there comes a moment for the most serious decisions.

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  1. Sasha 19871987
    Sasha 19871987 11 October 2012 06: 46
    But everyone understands that without gentlemen from the Pentagon, in this situation there is simply no way, they inherited one hundred percent, parasites ....
    1. crazyrom
      crazyrom 11 October 2012 07: 23
      Yes, he himself admits this!
      Erdogan said that "he does not want war with Syria, but a military conflict is not ruled out."
      this is clearly a promise that they say he is hunting, but if you really ask (and smear it), then you can!
      1. mamba
        mamba 11 October 2012 10: 44
        Quote: crazyrom
        not hunting, but if you really ask (and smear it), then you can!

        And I want, and pricks, and my mother does not order!
        I want to, and how to become a leader in the Turkic world, show your military power and achieve the status of the strongest state in the Middle East.
        Pricks, and even look at that, their Kurds will rebel and join the Iraqi. And the losses in an open war with Syria can be disproportionately large. He does not want to drag chestnuts out of the fire for Amer’s uncle.
        Mom does not orderbecause the fas commands from Washington have not yet arrived.
        In short, the brains are on one side, so the Turks so far are limited to loud statements and occasionally shoot across the border.
        1. albanec
          albanec 11 October 2012 11: 37
          Mom doesn’t order, because there hasn’t been any front commands from Washington yet.

          If the team arrives and Turkey starts the war, then, I am afraid, it will lose significant revenue to the budget. Few people want to go to a country that is at war.

          In 2011, Turkey earned 10.6% more profit from tourists than a year earlier. TurkStat reported that tourism revenues totaled $ 23 billion in 2011.
          1. Fox 070
            Fox 070 11 October 2012 13: 41
            Quote: albanec
            Few people want to go to a country that is at war.

            And trade with Russia will fall sharply and a problem will arise with oil products that Azerbaijan cannot close. And Turkey will return 50 years ago due to the state of the economy, and this will definitely make her forget about her claims to regional leadership.
  2. Strashila
    Strashila 11 October 2012 07: 03
    Turkey is trying to squeeze out the disputed territories from Syria under the guise. Yes, and greed does not give it rest, the flow of uncontrolled dough has begun to rotate and a humanitarian-type worker for refugees and militants can boil something.
    1. crazyrom
      crazyrom 11 October 2012 07: 25
      Yeah, in Turkey, Kurdistan will be sawed off under the guise, Assad let his Kurds go, so now they’re calling Turkish, let's see who else bites off a piece bully
    2. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 11 October 2012 07: 37
      Quote: Strashila

      Turkey is trying to squeeze out the disputed territories from Syria.

      Turkey can get some kind of benefit only in a very, very short term. Previously, no matter who grabbed it, they would all the same clean up, and now even more so. In this case, Turkey could lose everything! and besides, it’s drowning in its own blood. a country that is de facto a bargaining chip of the USA will not last long, so that the amers do not promise Turkey. The devil promises gold, but pays with shards, which Turkey will receive.
      1. nycsson
        nycsson 11 October 2012 08: 38
        Good morning everyone! Just watched the news! A Syrian Airlines plane flew from Moscow to Damascus! In the airspace of Turkey, 2 F-16s flew to intercept him! The plane was landed and searched, as I understand it, the special cargo that he was taking from Russia was confiscated! Our diplomats were also on board. Representatives of Turkey announced that the composition of the cargo will soon be made public. Our demanded an explanation ........
        1. Fox 070
          Fox 070 11 October 2012 13: 45
          Quote: nycsson
          ! Our diplomats were also on board.

          Already reported that the passengers were released (including ours), and the cargo was detained until the end of the check. According to one version, these are parts of rockets, according to another - electronics and communications.
  3. bairat
    bairat 11 October 2012 07: 52
    Turkish fighters forced to board a plane flying from Moscow to Damascus. On board found parts for radio stations previously delivered to Syria.
    1. alexng
      alexng 11 October 2012 08: 43
      I think that Russia will give a decent response to such an action from Turkey. In vain the Turks wake up the Russian bear.
      1. nycsson
        nycsson 11 October 2012 09: 22
        Quote: alexneg
        In vain the Turks wake up the Russian bear.

        The bear is weak! If he were strong, no one would have just landed a plane .......
  4. wolverine7778
    wolverine7778 11 October 2012 08: 09
    The Turks began to lose face among the Arabs, having such power and not using it, akin to Assad's indulgence, so they became more active)
  5. valokordin
    valokordin 11 October 2012 09: 10
    Turks are not an independent state, but a satellite of the United States and it harms itself, does Erdgan (the falcon) really lack wisdom in his head. The latest incident with the arrest of the plane is a direct challenge to Russia. Even more than once, the beaten Turks spit on us, this is what our leadership has lowered us to. If understandable tough measures are not taken against Ankara and if we swallow this spit, we are worthless. We must immediately close travel agencies in Turkey, this is like the first step. how many of our citizens died in Turkey, how many of our women were spoiled. Assistance to Syria by sea must be increased several times, and our used military equipment, but suitable, not to be destroyed as ammunition by our "peacekeepers from the furniture department, but to be handed over to Assad. The local military know how to handle it. This must be done as openly. This is our advantage and there is nothing to be afraid of.
    1. nycsson
      nycsson 11 October 2012 09: 44

      The Syrian passenger plane, detained by the Turkish Air Force in Ankara, flew to Damascus on the night of October 10-11, Interfax reported.
      The plane continued its journey to Damascus at 02:30 local time after nine hours of waiting at Ankara airport.

      There were 35 people on board, among whom, according to an unnamed agency source in the Russian Foreign Ministry, there were 17 Russians. After the aircraft was detained, employees of the Russian Embassy in Turkey arrived at Ankara Airport. However, according to the representative of the embassy, ​​they failed to meet with Russian passengers, because the plane was already preparing for departure at that time. According to Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, the travelers were treated hospitably and fed while the luggage compartments were inspected.

      Airbus A320 of the Syrian airline Syrian Air, flying from Moscow to Damascus, was intercepted by two Turkish Air Force F-16 fighters. At 17:15 local time (18:15 Moscow time) the plane landed at Ankara airport. The plane was detained to check the cargo: according to Davutoglu, the Turkish authorities received information that there were objects on board the airbus that did not meet the requirements of civil aviation.

      The cargo found during the inspection of the luggage compartments at Ankara Airport was confiscated by the Turkish authorities. According to the Turkish NTV channel, the cargo could turn out to be spare parts for use in rocket science. Agency "Interfax", referring to the Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet, reported that we are talking about communication equipment and radios. RIA Novosti, in turn, referring to the Turkish media, reported that spare parts for radio stations that were used for military purposes were found on board the aircraft.
  6. valokordin
    valokordin 11 October 2012 09: 59
    For military purposes, you can use a shotgun, mobile phone, ax, penknife and more.
  7. dark_65
    dark_65 11 October 2012 10: 03
    Nostalgia in the minds of the Turks for the imperial past, but without feeding resources, minds, this is not a reason to unleash a war. A well-knit show-off "we are all the stronger" in the region means little.
    1. skullcap
      skullcap 11 October 2012 11: 32
      Apparently Erdogan decided to accelerate the implementation of the American plan about the New Middle East.
      Probably inattentively watched the new map, planned by the Americans.
      There, Turkey does not grow in size, but on the contrary, it somewhat decreases.
  8. volcano
    volcano 11 October 2012 10: 26
    The Turks will not understand that they are NOBODY for the West ... NOT OWN ...... and they will never be ... in this case, they are like us.

    Therefore, the Turks are such cannon fodder .. it is not a pity .... even if they do not, no one in the West will cry ......

    I would have thought a hundred times in their place before acting as a pawn in a western game.
    because the consequences for them can be simply catastrophic ......

    They need to build their policies based on their interests, both tactically and strategically.
  9. whispering
    whispering 11 October 2012 10: 28
    Such impudence of the Turks cannot be forgiven ... it is definitely .... impudent Allah Akbar .... impudent ...
    1. dimanf
      dimanf 11 October 2012 10: 56
      Quote: Shota
      Such impudence of the Turks cannot be forgiven ... it is definitely .... impudent Allah Akbar .... impudent ...

      Is the Kremlin gas traders capable of this?
      and the solution lies on the surface:
      make the procedure for making trips to Turkey long and tedious.
      our deputies are able to adopt burdensome laws.
      advertise as support for our resorts.
      in general, do everything as they usually do, but at least it will be useful!
  10. Law
    Law 11 October 2012 10: 39
    After the incident with the Syrian plane on which our citizens were and threatened by 2 Turkish air forces in flight, it’s not at all a gate, but if anyone has weak nerves or there were children there, it’s necessary to act only with economic leverage thereby making it clear that it’s impossible with Russia, it’s necessary to prohibit the sale of tours in the Turkish direction, as was done at one time for Egypt, then they will stir quickly and see how much their liras will lose, they will lose the most important thing about financial flow, work and the most important No confidence in tomorrow!
    PS and the main thing is that we have F.F. Ushakov in the sleeve of the Turks know him well, and if they pretend they don’t know, we will remind them!
  11. DEfindER
    DEfindER 11 October 2012 12: 01
    The incident with the plane is just a blatant fact, and a direct challenge to Russia, we can say a spit in our direction! It’s worth turning a blind eye to this, and such garbage will begin everywhere and everywhere, they won’t put our citizens in anything!
  12. Anti
    Anti 11 October 2012 12: 23
    You can put a load in, just like drugs, you can slip everything in, they can, but no, they’ll help the Langley guys. There could be something like that. Banal provoca cup !!!

    The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will react as it should !!!
    PRAVDARUB 11 October 2012 12: 32
    let's arm the unemployed terrorists to the teeth and throw them through Turkey through the Caucasus .... let's see if they are ready or not
    1. dimanf
      dimanf 11 October 2012 13: 40
      Quote: TRUTH

      let's arm the unemployed terrorists to the teeth and throw them through Turkey through the Caucasus .... let's see if they are ready or not

      better "accidentally" Kurds MANPADS and other weapons.
      through shell companies and third parties.
  14. omsbon
    omsbon 11 October 2012 12: 36
    Visiting Turkish resorts and talking with locals, I was always surprised that most of them know such names:
    - Ushak Pasha (F.F. Ushakov)
    - Stomped Pasha (A.V. Suvorov),
    and most amazingly they know the meaning of the word "Stalingrad",
    but that’s why the Ottoman Empire has shrunk so much in size that they don’t know. This ignorance will lead Turkey to even greater contraction!
  15. nycsson
    nycsson 11 October 2012 13: 03
    Turkey flies aircraft to Syrian borders


    10.10.2012 06:19

    Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on October 9 that the Turkish Air Force planes have been redeployed closer to the Syrian border. According to him, this was done "in connection with the escalation of tension on the Turkish-Syrian border," where shelling of the Syrian territory has not continued in recent days.

    Erdogan said this at a meeting of the Turkish parliament, however, he said that Turkey is not interested in military operations, but must be prepared for any development of events, zman reports.

    It was previously reported that at least 25 f-16 aircraft were transferred to a military airfield located in close proximity to the border with Syria.

    NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen assured the Turkish authorities that, if necessary, the Alliance "will be ready to defend Turkey." Rasmussen spoke to reporters ahead of the meeting of NATO defense ministers, which opened yesterday in Brussels.
    1. baltika-18
      baltika-18 11 October 2012 13: 27
      Quote: nycsson
      Erdogan said this at a meeting of the Turkish parliament, however, said that Turkey is not interested in hostilities,

      Before the war, before the attack they always say that they don’t want war. They need a serious reason. As soon as the Turks are ready, I think there is a reason.
    PRAVDARUB 11 October 2012 14: 23
    Politics by politics, but the question is, are people the same Turks ready to go to the slaughter? I mean ordinary citizens of future soldiers .. Will they blindly believe the commanders during the heat of battle? Still no country has tried in open battle to challenge NATO police forces .. Iraq may be the first ... Mi28, shell and other equipment and then a lightning organized attack and, a general rebellion and all! bahh !!! A grouping at sea sunk by missiles in 25 minutes ... Thousands of prisoners ... NATO army was defeated in 48 hours
    1. DEfindER
      DEfindER 12 October 2012 09: 55
      The problem is that the shells will not save if 200 tomahawks fly at you .. The numberists always take and not the quality, in the case of Syria, if she is alone, she will have a hard time ..