When will Special Operation Z end?
Source: 9111.ru
Diplomats better shut up
When the guns started talking, it means that the diplomats did not work well somewhere. Not necessarily Russian, sometimes one uncompromising forehead in a foreign Foreign Ministry is enough. For example, the current head of Ukrainian diplomacy Kuleba, by the way, is one of the few professionals in Zelensky's team. He has a specialized higher education at the Institute of International Relations of Kyiv University. But fierce Russophobia and a sense of superiority did not help the youngest foreign minister save his country. As a result, Kuleba has every chance to enter history in the rank of the last head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry.
But European and American politicians are becoming wiser and pushing Kyiv towards peace negotiations. Naturally, taking into account the territorial concessions to Russia. We will not list all the "opinion leaders" of the West who openly declare the need to accept the conditions of the Kremlin, we will note only the main ones - Kissinger, Stoltenberg and Macron. And if people of this rank voice such a thing, then this situation has been discussed through closed channels for a long time. Most likely, after the wild provocation in Bucha and the subsequent tightening of Russian rhetoric, it became clear to everyone in the West that Russia had no way back.
It turned out to be so far from Putin's notorious strategic defeat that now even old Biden has forgotten about such expressions. But just recently, he allegedly accidentally made a slip about the overthrow of the President of Russia. Now NATO is helping Ukraine not to finally resolve the Russian issue, but only to take an advantageous position in future negotiations. That is, so that fewer liberated territories come under the jurisdiction of the Kremlin.
"Give Putin what he wants"writes The Times. Europeans are ready to make peace at the expense of territorial concessions. Until the time
The pressure on the West is far from humanistic motives - they are still ready to fight with our country to the last Ukrainian. No matter how trite this phrase may sound, it will be relevant for a long time to come. Foreign players are under pressure from numbers, primarily from inflation. For example, the US Federal Reserve Service for the first time since 1994 raised the base interest rate by 75 basis points at once, that is, up to 1,5-1,75% per annum. It is in Russia that the Central Bank's rate jumps by 5-6% are customary, and overseas this is nonsense.
A storm is coming, if not tomorrow, but it is definitely coming. The typical representative of the collective West has traditionally spent little of the total income on energy - electricity, gas and gasoline. In the US mentioned above, households already spend 4% of the budget, and this share is increasing every day. In the "golden" times of the energy crisis of the 70-80s, this share reached 12%, and the Yankees can approach this line by the end of the year.
If an American is forced to spend more than 10 dollars for every hundred bucks earned on electricity, heat and fuel, where will he go? He will go to smash the streets, because there is nothing more valuable for a US citizen than his own well-being and the opportunity to fill up his favorite muscle car for a few cents. And here the newfangled BLM will seem like flowers. Therefore, until the flame finally breaks out, it must be extinguished.
But that's not all. Among the reasons why the West is gradually preparing Kyiv for peace, The New York Times points out: the West's unwillingness to deplete its arsenals, the inability to quickly produce additional weapon, complex logistics, fears of sensitive technologies falling into the hands of Russians, the need to train Ukrainians in the handling of new types of weapons, as well as the risk of escalation if the Armed Forces of Ukraine launch strikes against Russia. In the gloomy brains of Western politicians and the military, a new peace plan is being born.
Complete and unconditional surrender?
Freezing the special operation that European leaders dream of is not in the interests of Russia at all. Simply because it is impossible to negotiate with Kyiv now. Leaving the existing status quo, even with the complete liberation of the LDNR, is a ticking time bomb for decades to come. We have been talking about a buffer zone to the west of Russia for many years. So now this buffer territory needs to be looked at in a new way.
The logic of the continuation of the special operation should include the consistent liberation of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv and finally Zaporozhye regions. This is a kind of minimum program. And it is dictated not even by the interests of the population living in these territories, but by Russian citizens in the regions bordering Ukraine. Crazy from national humiliation, the Bandera people will immediately switch to a terrorist war after the signing of any interim peace agreement. Iskanders and Calibers will no longer process this scum - after all, a peace treaty will have already been signed.
The second reason for the impossibility of a peace treaty at the moment is the potential of the liberated territories. The Kharkiv region is a powerful Ukrainian military-industrial complex, which, even after Russian preventive strikes, is not so difficult to restore. In the east and southeast of Ukraine, the lion's share of black soil, and this is an important factor in the food security of the liberated territories. Without these territories, the Kyiv regime will forever remain without excess wheat harvests, which means it will leave the world market. For this, Zelensky was very loved in the West - after all, one of the largest grain exporters in the world. For their citizens in the remaining territories, by the way, there will be enough wheat, starvation will not happen.
Even with the liberation of half of the territory of Ukraine, the western regions are not in danger of starvation - they simply will not export anymore. Source: agromer.ru
Adherents of the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine hope very much that our country will overstrain to restore the destroyed infrastructure in new territories. Somewhere in 3-5 years, the economic potential of all-Russian construction will dry up. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are already working on this concept, destroying cities and industrial enterprises with artillery. From the latter, the bandits never left Severodonetsk, they settled in the local Azot, which means that the largest chemical enterprise will suffer the fate of the Mariupol plants. "Nitrogen", by the way, city-forming for Severodonetsk.
How much will the restoration or even reprofiling cost? The question is rhetorical, but the problem is solvable. In the Russian construction industry, they are already rubbing their hands - by the end of the year, an increase in production volumes is planned, largely due to the restoration of Donbass. The development of new territories always becomes a difficult challenge for the state, but everything is not so critical. In order to build roads, houses and enterprises, Russia does not need currency, imported components, and foreign technologies are not so critical. It's not the automotive industry deciding where to get ABS units and airbags from now. Yes, in some cases it will be necessary to build more slowly, not according to the canons of the EU, but the construction will not stop. And with it, the GDP will grow.
The story of the global restoration of the remnants of Ukraine after a hypothetical peace treaty looks untenable. Say, even if the Russians stop on the Dnieper, we will still feed the Kyiv regime and create a new South Korea. Such plans already exist in the United States - to divide the country with a new demilitarized zone. Naturally, the fate of North Korea is prepared for the east of the country by imported minds. The strategists did not take into account that no one needs a new South Korea, since one already exists. And New-Taiwan is not needed. Governments are now coming to the conclusion that production, as far as possible, should be located at home. The chronic shortage of semiconductors is the most telling example of this.
In the western territories of Ukraine, an impressive picture will emerge in this scenario. Thousands of unfinished bandits with swastikas on their skin, with weapons in their hands and combat skills will look for their new place under the sun. At the same time, Ukraine will no longer have resources - the industrial and agricultural east will by that time become free from the Kyiv regime. It is not clear what Western curators will be able to do with Ukrainians in order to turn them into an analogue of South Korea. Apart from growing wheat and plundering billions of investments, Ukraine knows nothing else. All centers of competence remained in the east or simply brought to zero. Suffice it to recall what Motor Sich, the Zaporozhye Automobile Plant and other once famous enterprises were doing until recently. But the new Ukraine still has to pay debts for lend-lease and other assistance.
When to finish the special operation in Ukraine? Reach the Polish border or liberate the entire Black Sea coast with a jerk, connect with Transnistria and stop on the Dnieper? The buffer of Ukrainian territory west of Kyiv, which is spiteful towards Russia, should be left to the Europeans? For decades they have nurtured hatred of Russia in Bandera, so now let them find a common language with them. The unfinished nationalists, like spiders in a jar, and even with heavy NATO weapons, are capable of sobering up European leaders for decades. Maybe, finally, an understanding of a simple truth will come - nationalism, mixed with Russophobia, has no right to life. By definition. No matter how beautiful slogans he disguises himself under.
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