The dead loop of the Central Bank - a cheap dollar and an expensive loan
welcome to the dollar
The depreciation of foreign currencies, and much stronger for the euro than for the dollar, in the Russian Central Bank, of course, took credit for itself. And even though it was by no means this, more precisely, not only this, that became the basis for the reappointment of the chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Ms. Nabiullina, the trend does not change.
Approximately as with Comrade Saakhov - the one who interfered with us for many years, now must help us. Again! And, excuse me, this is not even about unfreezing, and even more so, not about the return of Russian financial reserves. Now much more is at stake - the economic and, as a result, the political sovereignty of Russia.
The current generally modest position of Russia, as a raw materials appendage, and even with a powerful nuclear potential, clearly does not suit our opponents. And no one there is even trying to hide the desire to transfer our country to the position of a banana republic. However, about sovereignty and the notorious sovereign democracy, and about bananas - below.
But the dollar and the euro in Russia fell in price only because now they are not really needed. Especially in terms of internal turnover. At the same time, exporters can be calm - oil and gas go both to the West and to the East in volumes greater than in the best years.
Saving dollars has also become completely pointless for many, as access to foreign accounts is blocked. Not all of them, of course, but still. However, the liberalization of the currency regime in Russia is in full swing, although for some time it still had to be suspended. Somehow it is indecent in the conditions of a special operation.
Rate and resignation
The resignation of the head of the Central Bank of Russia did not take place, although the loss of 300 billion from reserves is more than enough reason for this. But meanwhile, the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank in February 2022 was presented to the public, primarily as a means to prevent currency speculation.
And at the same time, the mass panic buying of dollars and euros by the broad masses of the population. And do not be surprised that the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, who actually asked to resign, speaking in the State Duma before being reappointed to her high and independent post, looked very confident.
Behind her, you yourself know who, and the party members from the faction that has an absolute majority in the lower house of the Federal Assembly, there is no reason to go against him.
And why, one of the United Russia deputies said, they say, she missed “Madame with brooches” (Nabiullina has long been called by her writing colleagues) our 300 reserve billions, not rubles, but dollars with euros, so let them herself returns.
And the fact that, by definition, the hands of the broad masses will never reach these reserves, and having never had any currency in their hands, is not important for our state bankers. Yes, the panic that the Bank of Russia was so afraid of lasted only three or four days in February and among a very limited contingent, a significant part of which had already said goodbye to Russia and, it seems, forever.
But you still need to say thank you to the Central Bank, if only for the fact that you didn’t sit like a dog in the manger at a critical rate of 20% per annum. I have already dropped three percent twice, and at such a rate it is possible to reach a very acceptable level of the cost of a credit ruble by the end of the year.
Bet like a noose
By the way, it is interesting, at what percentage do those who came with them to the liberated lands of Ukraine receive credit rubles today? Really under 14%? It is not entirely clear how they will be refunded, although, most likely, in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, rubles are budgetary.
The rate of 14 percent in the current conditions is a level that is acceptable only for trade, and it is exclusively speculative, while for the rest it is prohibitive. Small business remains in the "dead zone", but it is no stranger to it, as before, they will borrow a little and not for long.
It is more difficult for large enterprises - working capital is needed now, otherwise it is necessary to stop. Or go to bow to the elect from among just bankers - those for whom the Central Bank rate is not the law. There are quite a few such exceptions in the country, although even there real rates are usually prohibitive.
Nevertheless, there is a possibility of prolongation, restructuring, and what else will accountants say? The main thing is to have “access to the body”, preferably a higher level. You understand what scope for corruption is. Although what is the point of stealing like that today.
Not only to steal from themselves, but also to spend the stolen in a good way, there is simply nowhere. Villas, yachts, football clubs. They will take it away for nothing, and all for a short time.
And a little about bananas
After that, it is quite possible to talk about Russia as a banana republic. But first, let's go back for a while to the dollars, which, thanks to the truly "incredible" efforts of the Russian Central Bank, are about to go down all over the world.
So, for this, our Central Bank and its “best in the world” chairman, which was recognized more than once before the pandemic and the CBO - Elvira Sakhipzadovna, will be thanked in the US Federal Reserve! They will not be announced in the media, but they will say, just by all means.
Because the United States, at the expense of a cheap dollar, will reduce the national debt, and will receive advantages in foreign trade. And they will once again have their hands untied for an unprecedented emission. But this is all in the event of our large-scale defeat, which, we believe, will not wait in Washington.
And regarding Upper Volta, rockets or a banana republic – as is well known, in Russia, instead of bananas, there is oil and gas. At best, some other raw materials or, at the very least, grain and fertilizers. Readers here have the right to ask – what about the atom, space, unique technologies in the field of IT, aircraft and shipbuilding, medicine and much more.
Yes, all this, and even Russian sports, and Russian culture, of course, has a place to be, but ... Only under the direct control of the civilized West. We are quite unequivocally offered external control. Otherwise - sanctions, not bananas, but bans, and disconnection from SWIFT with the complete abolition of the visa regime.
PS
It is clear that what we have today is not enough for puppeteers from the "golden billion". The Russian ruble simply does not have the right to be at least somewhere sufficient on its own. Ah, the ruble began to circulate freely in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions? This is unacceptable, it's worse than Bucha and the Azovstal dungeons!
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