Reopen arsenals of tactical nuclear weapons
Article "The Reality of Nuclear War: NATO Allies Raise the Stakes" we looked at how the United States and NATO countries can start a nuclear conflict by carrying out a sabotage using a tactical nuclear weapon in Kyiv and blaming Russia for this. It doesn't fit in my head - impossible, impossible, impossible...
But let's try to imagine that at the end of the First World War, someone will tell that in 21 years the Second World War will begin, that Germany will seize the whole of Europe, while France will last only a month and a half, and only the Soviet Union will be able to stop Germany. He will tell that mighty battleships will turn into "whipping boys" for aircraft carriers and submarines, that nuclear weapons will be created and used. weapon (What is it anyway?)...
Would anyone believe it? It is unlikely, most likely, the narrator would have been sent to a home for the mentally ill. If a story teaches something, it is only that everything is possible - the most unexpected alliances and the most treacherous betrayals, the passive, initiativeless expectation of the death of individuals and entire states, and the most daring and harsh measures that can change the course of history.
There is no doubt that the United States and NATO countries will decide on a provocation with nuclear weapons, but there is no doubt that such a scenario was considered and worked out somewhere in the depths of the headquarters of the Western countries, under the heading "top secret, of special importance."
How can you prevent or at least minimize the likelihood that the United States will decide on a provocation with nuclear weapons? And if this does happen, then what should a country that has been declared a "rogue" do? Let's consider these questions in order.
prevent the unthinkable
It can be assumed that the likelihood of the United States committing sabotage with nuclear weapons, as well as imitation of the use by Russia of any other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) - chemical, bacteriological, on the territory of Ukraine directly depends on how events will develop at the front.
If Russia's actions are successful, if it moves forward, the United States is unlikely to risk exposing Russia to the use of WMD. A fool understands that a country that wins does not make sense to expose itself to the use of WMD. The risks will be too great, the opposite situation may well arise, when Russia, China and other countries openly accuse the United States of provocation, and even some of the US allies may well move away from them, realizing that the US leaders have already lost touch with reality.
Another option for the United States to refuse provocation with WMD on the territory of Ukraine is the withdrawal of troops by Russia to positions until March 24.03.2022, XNUMX, or even withdrawal from Luhansk, Donbass, Crimea ... Yes, there will be no provocation with WMD, but this will not solve the problem, but only delay and aggravate. On the basis of a united Ukraine, the United States will create such a springboard for war and hatred that the next full-scale war in Europe with the use of at least tactical nuclear weapons will become inevitable. This is not to mention the fact that such actions would be political suicide for the Russian authorities.
If the fighting on the territory of Ukraine drags on, then a situation of uncertainty will arise, Transnistria, Moldova, and possibly Romania and Poland will be drawn into it. If Russia not only starts to lose ground, but it looks like this, then the United States may well decide that it’s time for the bear to cut its claws “to the very shoulders.”
Based on the foregoing, the main task of the armed forces of the Russian Federation is to put pressure on the enemy so hard that no one has any doubts or illusions about the possibility of "overcoming".
It can be assumed that the deterrent in this matter is often not military obstacles, but political decisions. We want to sit on two chairs - "and eat a fish, and climb a Christmas tree"? Will not work. War is not politics, here stepping back means only defeat. How long did they wait with the destruction of the Ukrainian transport network? How much advantage did this give our adversaries?
It is necessary to destroy as severely as possible the transport infrastructure, communication networks, power supply of critical facilities, primarily in Western Ukraine. This issue was previously discussed in the material "Decomposition of Ukraine as a way to radically reduce the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to resist the Russian special operation".
But this is not enough - it is necessary to completely abandon any negotiations with the Kyiv regime, recognize it as criminal (support for Nazism, torture and murder, uncontrolled distribution of weapons to the population and the use of civilians as human shields) and make every effort to destroy all representatives of the current regime, the most odious politicians and heads of power structures of Ukraine. This issue was also discussed earlier in the article. "Confrontation with the West on the territory of Ukraine: to press without stopping".
In addition to the psychological effect, the entire governance structure of Ukraine will be disrupted, a squabble for power and a division of resources will begin. It can be assumed that the theft of funds and weapons supplied to Ukraine will increase many times over - who wants to die when it becomes clear that this is almost inevitable - it is better to grab more and dump them away.
Western countries will have to rebuild all supply chains, negotiate with the new government, consider options for the fact that the new government will not last long. And the new government will also consider this option. And she will be “hungry”, and she will grab three times more than the existing one in order to be in time, until the very end ...
In general, the unprecedented pressure on the transport and energy infrastructure, broadcasting and communications systems, the destruction of the military and political leadership of Ukraine, will not only deal a shocking, sobering blow to all those who, in a state of euphoria, expect a “overcome”, but will also radically reduce the capabilities of the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU) for resistance to the armed forces of the Russian Federation (RF Armed Forces).
If the operation drags on, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have problems, the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to inflict several daring strikes on objects on the territory of the Russian Federation, then the nuclear nightmare may well become a reality, and then something will have to be done about it. At the same time, you will have to act much more decisively, and with much worse consequences. For all.
Uncertainty and indecision are the main causes and risks of escalation of the conflict up to the use of tactical and even strategic nuclear weapons.
Beyond the Unthinkable
Nuclear weapon. For many, any use of nuclear weapons means taboo - it's the end of the world, nuclear winter, radioactive fallout. If we talk about a full-fledged exchange of nuclear strikes between Russia and the United States, then in many ways the above will be close to the truth - hundreds of millions of people will die, vast territories will be polluted, it is not completely clear how this will affect the environment. However, if we talk about tactical nuclear weapons (TNW), then everything is somewhat different.
The possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons in local conflicts has been repeatedly discussed, including in the "stronghold of democracy" - in the United States. There is no doubt that if the United States had an objective need, they would use tactical nuclear weapons without hesitation. Would that make the US a pariah country? It is highly doubtful.
Will the use of tactical nuclear weapons trigger the retaliatory use of tactical or strategic nuclear weapons? If the attacked side has it, then yes, and if the attacked side does not have nuclear weapons, then it will have nothing to answer with. Will others join? Why, in order to risk getting hit by nuclear weapons already on their territory? If the United States used tactical nuclear weapons in Iraq, or, for example, in Venezuela, would we launch nuclear strikes against the United States in response? The answer will be - definitely not.
Yes, but Iraq and Venezuela are not in a military alliance with us, and the countries of Eastern Europe, which may become the first targets for Russian tactical nuclear weapons, are included in NATO? So what? As Henry Kissinger said there, “great powers do not sacrifice themselves for the sake of their allies”? Did Poland's European allies help Poland during World War II? And now it will be the same. If Russia strikes at the Polish Armed Forces using tactical nuclear weapons, neither the United States, nor Great Britain, nor France will use their nuclear weapons against Russia in response to this - they will impose some other ban on the supply of candy or gummy bears.
It is a little more difficult with the American armed forces, which can be deployed on the territory of the same Poland, but this issue can also be “bypassed”. Firstly, the United States will not physically be able to deploy its troops at every Polish military facility. Secondly, after the very first strikes of tactical nuclear weapons on those facilities in Poland where there are no American military personnel, they quickly “fade” from the rest. Thirdly, if there are too many American Armed Forces on the territory of Poland, then they themselves become a legitimate target for Russian tactical nuclear weapons, and why did you want us to wait for a repeat of June 1941?
The main thing in the use of tactical nuclear weapons is that there must be one immutable principle:
Russia will respond to any strike with a nuclear weapon on its territory with a nuclear strike on the territory of the country that fired the nuclear charge. If Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of third countries, then this is not yet a reason for the rest to intervene, rather, on the contrary, a reason to stop, step aside.
No, of course, if Russia, after delivering TNW strikes against Poland, decides to send troops to its territory, then they already become a completely legitimate target for American TNW. Please strike, but... on the territory of Poland, and not on the territory of Russia, because in response to this, the United States will receive strikes already on its own territory. But we're not going to invade Poland, are we?
Thus, the only response to the US-British nuclear provocation on the territory of Ukraine, if any, can only be a massive strike with tactical nuclear weapons on military bases in Eastern Europe, as well as on warehouses with American nuclear weapons on the territory of Western European countries.
This should be implemented within not only hours, but rather - several tens of minutes from the moment when (if) a nuclear terrorist attack on the territory of Ukraine is carried out. If the unthinkable has already happened, then we still won’t be able to justify ourselves, we will already be a country that has used nuclear weapons against the civilian population, which means that there will be no point in limiting ourselves.
If, after the first strike, the European NATO countries do not stop their military activity, then TNW strikes against the military infrastructure of Western European countries, of course, those that do not have their own nuclear weapons, should follow.
Conclusions
How absurd is all of the above? And how absurd is a nuclear terrorist attack in a major European city?
Is the scenario of nuclear terrorism by the US and the UK realistic? According to the author, it is quite real. Neither the US nor the UK should under any circumstances be allowed to establish normal peaceful relations between Russia and the countries of Europe, which, in fact, will mean the end of the Anglo-Saxon hegemony.
In turn, the countries of Europe, with a suicidal tenacity worthy of a better use, are indulging the United States and Great Britain in their endeavors with might and main, pushing the world to the beginning of the end, sticking their noses where they don’t belong and entering into conflicts with Russia, China and other countries that in no way they are not threatened, but on the contrary, they seek every opportunity for peaceful cooperation. If we continue to follow this path, then sooner or later the United States and Great Britain may well take extreme measures, which now seem unrealistic to many, and draw us into a nuclear conflict, while also making it the initiator.
It will be possible to reverse the situation only by taking measures so harsh that an American nuclear terrorist attack on the territory of Ukraine will either be prevented, or its consequences will no longer matter.
Is it possible to prevent all this at all? With absolute probability it is unlikely, but it is possible to minimize the probability of the worst outcome.
NATO countries must clearly understand that at the moment when they cross invisible borders, one of which is a terrorist attack using weapons of mass destruction on the territory of Ukraine, Russian tactical nuclear charges will hit their targets in the countries of Eastern and Western Europe.
And in order to minimize the likelihood of such an outcome, it is necessary to make sure that these borders are visible and clearly tangible for NATO countries, as well as the consequences of crossing them.
In the meantime, only one thing can be said for sure - the world will never be the same again.
Information