Such a result, in the light of the fact that Georgia will soon become a parliamentary republic in January (January 2013), can only say that the era of Saakashvili is leaving. The fact is that according to the new provisions of the Georgian constitution, the number one person in a state from 2013 will be not the president, but the prime minister. These amendments were initiated by Saakashvili himself, obviously hoping that his political movement would prevail over the opposition coalition, and accordingly he (Saakashvili), although in a different position, would remain the first Georgian official. However, nothing of the kind, as we understand, happened: Saakashvili lost. At the same time, the word “lost” in this context is not even entirely appropriate. More correctly in this regard, to say that those who once actively promoted the current Georgian president to power, for Saakashvili this time put an insurmountable barrier. Outwardly, everything looked, naturally, in full compliance with democratic norms, but in actual fact, the West, with the help of these very democratic norms, which, as it turned out, can be easily manipulated, simply “leaked” Mikhail Nikolozovich. He “poured” as calmly as Viktor Yushchenko, who at one time also zealously embodied Western ideas, but then stalled in place and began to more and more go into the quagmire along with his reforms and innovations.
So, Saakashvili “merged” with the hands of the Georgian people themselves, because this person for the whole circle of people who made their bets on him turned into a waste material. At the same time, the acting Georgian president himself, realizing that his game is over, acknowledged his defeat - and how could he not recognize when Big Brother, who had led him once to the presidency, deigned this time to gently refuse Saakashvili’s help. That's Victoria Nuland praised Mikhail Nikolozovich for his accommodating in terms of recognizing the defeat in the elections. And, as we know from our own stories (1996 year), if the United States unconditionally recognizes elections in one country or another and even applaud their results, it means that they have their own interest in that ...
But if the era of Saakashvili is heading towards its sunset, then what should the Georgian people expect, and you and me, from the new star of Georgian politics, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who, by the way, does not even have Georgian citizenship. The winning coalition is ready to present Ivanishvili as the future Georgian prime minister, endowing him with a Georgian passport, which was recently selected in a very original way (there is information about this in “VO”) by the current President Saakashvili.
So, it is obvious that Ivanishvili will get to the chair of the first man of Georgia - the chair of the prime minister. And if it does, what changes in the internal politics of our neighbors can happen?
To begin with, it is worth noting that the chairman of the Russian Government, Dmitry Medvedev, has already said that he welcomes the choice of the Georgian people. According to Medvedev, the political landscape in modern Georgia can become more diverse. The Russian prime minister is ready to begin building relations with a new political force that emerged from the southern neighbor.
One can understand Medvedev’s undisguised satisfaction with the results of elections in Georgia, because Medvedev himself has suffered from the current Georgian president and his closest circle. Both he (Medvedev) and Putin often stated that the Russian authorities are ready to contact the Georgian authorities only if there is anyone at the head of Georgia, but not Mikhail Saakashvili. And the peculiar dream of Russian leaders is becoming a reality.
The actual coming to power in Georgia of opposition forces led by Ivanishvili promises positive changes in relation to our countries. The victor of the parliamentary elections managed to speak about it himself. But at the same time, it is necessary to touch upon the very sensitive issue of our bilateral relations: the issue of the territorial integrity of Georgia. It is clear that recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by the politicians of the “Georgian Dream” is out of the question. It would just bury their political career in Georgia. Moreover, this is clearly not part of the plans of Big Brother, who did not hinder the coming of the Ivanishvili bloc to power.
At the same time, the Russian leadership, whoever is at the Georgian helm, will not make a backward move, abandoning its own recognition of the independence of the above-mentioned republics. Such a refusal would have looked just silly, and, it is unlikely, could have added to Russia foreign policy points, at least from Sukhum and Tskhinval.
It turns out that Russia and Georgia will have to build their relations in a new way, either ignoring this problem or solving it in a certain new plane. It is obvious that today such a “new plane” does not exist. Moreover, Bidzina Ivanishvili made it clear that he is going to forge positive relations with Moscow, but at the same time he is not going to refuse integration with the West. At least, the course towards Georgia’s entry into NATO, as well as large-scale cooperation with the European Union, will continue. It turns out that Russian-Georgian relations will have to follow a very thorny path.
But here one could hardly expect other words from Ivanishvili. Judge for yourself, the person didn’t even have time to feel the joys of victory in the elections, and then suddenly he would sow with the words that he either fully and completely rushes into the arms of Russia, covering all programs for Georgia’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance, or roughly the same foreign policy that Mikhail Saakashvili pursued and continues to pursue. Not a single adequate politician (let us hope that Ivanishvili is like that), having heard about the preliminary results, will cut off his shoulders and shout about the one-sidedness of his policy. Here Ivanishvili and immediately threw two fishing rods, and now he is ready to wait a little, what rod will bring him a greater catch.
If Ivanishvili had suddenly declared that he was ready to completely abandon the idea of Georgia joining NATO, this would have caused an unequivocal protest of almost 70% of the country's population who had voted not so long ago to actively integrate with the alliance. If Ivanishvili would say that he is not going to restore good-neighborly relations with Russia, because she is “occupying” a fifth of the territory of Georgia, then this would cause bewilderment among those who in Georgia advocate for the rapprochement of our countries. And there are obviously a lot of them. If we consider that the population of Georgia is about 4,5 million, and at the same time, according to the most conservative estimates, about 170 thousands of Georgian citizens live in the Russian Federation, then it is clear that the issue of improving relations between Moscow and Tbilisi has long been overdue.
But, again, how will Ivanishvili solve this question? Most likely, he himself - no way. He will wait for the first steps from Moscow, like the girl on the marriage who is waiting for a proposal from the groom. And it can even give Ivanishvili a certain head start. If Moscow takes an ill-conceived step, then both the present Georgian oppositionist-president and the West that merged him will have another reason to accuse Moscow of the fact that it was not the case of Saakashvili, but only in the position of the Kremlin.
If so, then Moscow needs to be ready for a maneuver that will allow it to go for a real upholding of its interests in the Caucasus, for rapprochement with Georgia, as they say, for a lesser loss of foreign policy rating. But on the other hand, does Moscow really need this rapprochement now? .. Certainly, building honest partnerships is one thing, and quite another, when too serious a relationship can turn out to be a background. Could it be that while both Moscow and a fairly politically renewed Tbilisi will wait for the first steps of each other, the third forces will again try to take advantage of this hitch for the two countries? It may well turn out, if, of course, the West has finally lost interest in Georgia. But the West now has its own problems, as they say, to the throat, and therefore a small but insanely proud Caucasian country may find itself in a very delicate situation, when due to the mistakes of the previous (still valid) leadership, its political plans are not for everyone interesting.
In general, Ivanishvili will have to start working, rolling up his sleeves, in order to clean up everything that he managed to leave behind both on the foreign and domestic political arena. the destroyer of his own state.