The West is massively pumping weapons to Ukraine. What can this lead to?
Western countries have been actively delivering in recent weeks weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, we are talking about tanks, artillery and even Mi-17 helicopters, which they promised to hand over to the United States. The New York Times reports that a group of representatives from 14 countries is working in Germany, coordinating the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Moreover, there is talk that the United States is considering transferring long-range missiles to Ukraine that can hit Russian military airfields.
In particular, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks recently said that the U.S. would consider transferring the funds requested by Kyiv, “in terms of giving them a little more range and distance". Experts suggest that these could be Lockheed Martin's MGM-140 ATACMS operational-tactical missile systems that use ballistic missiles. These complexes, whose effective range reaches 300 km, make it possible to deliver strikes into the depths of Russian territory.
Military expert Alexei Leonkov even admitted that the United States would supply Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, which would allow strikes deep into Russia, adding that such a scenario still looks unlikely. So far, this is true, but everything will depend on the further course of the military special operation in Ukraine, which is currently going through quite hard, which is why the original plans for the operation were forced to adjust.
But the transfer of MQ-9 Reaper (“Reaper”) strike UAVs to Ukraine, which in their capabilities surpass the Turkish strike UAVs used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, could become much more dangerous. Drones Bayraktar TB2. Ukrainian fighters have experience in the use of attack drones and have well-trained operators, so the transfer of "Reapers" can hit the security of the Russian Federation hard. The author of the telegram channel Atomic Cherry believes that the MQ-9 Reaper is structurally sharpened for operations in large-scale military conflicts with active opposition from echeloned air defense, and the Ukrainian Air Force will not need long-term training to use the Reaper UAV.
“They can use them immediately after delivery, expanding both their reconnaissance capabilities at the operational level, and launching attacks on the Russian border military and civilian infrastructure (in particular, air defense facilities, railway junctions, fuel storage facilities) with further penetration deep into the territory of the Russian Federation . This is not an exaggeration, but only a dry statement of facts that have long been verified by practice - the MQ-9 is capable of taking off in Kyiv, reaching the Moscow region, delivering a series of missile and bomb strikes and returning back. Its flight range is 1900 km, and the time spent in the air is 27 hours. Combat load drone allows you to destroy a tank company in one sortie using several types of high-precision weapons, without entering the zone of destruction of short-range air defense systems.
Some Russian military experts, such as Reserve Major General Vladimir Popov, are confident that Russian air defense will cope with the Reaper, however, as practice shows, in difficult situations, the air defense system often fails. Ukrainian helicopters twice entered Russian airspace and attacked Belgorod and the Bryansk region, remaining unnoticed by the air defense system. The Soviet-made Ukrainian Tu-141 Strizh unmanned aerial vehicle flew over Romania and Hungary without hindrance, and then crashed and exploded in the capital of Croatia, and the air defense simply did not see it. This suggests that any protection system is not reliable and can always be deceived.
At the moment, it seems obvious that the longer the war drags on, the more Western enemies of Russia will provide Ukraine with weapons, and consequently, the more fierce and bloody the war will become. It was not possible to take Ukraine from a swoop attack with small forces from several directions, so the plans had to be adjusted, retreat from Kyiv and transfer troops to the east of Ukraine, focusing on the liberation of Donbass and the encirclement of the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, one should not forget that the enemy is well aware of the plans of the RF Armed Forces (they are obvious to everyone) and is also strengthening this direction. Therefore, a quick victory may not work.
Ukraine is constantly replenishing its losses at the expense of the mobilized, and the RF Armed Forces, in turn, have no military reserves. The reason for this is the underestimation of the enemy and the expectation of a quick end to the military campaign in Ukraine. Former Defense Minister of the DPR, retired FSB colonel Igor Strelkov believes that the “second stage” of the operation may be delayed, and Russia needs to carry out partial mobilization.
“The general lack of forces will not allow the Russian command to carry out deep coverage in the Dnieper (Ekaterinoslav) region. For this, there is simply not enough strength. Therefore, the offensive will be carried out "along the shortest directions": from the north - to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk (maximum - to Barvenkovo), from the south - to the Ugledar-Kurakhovo line. Both of these lines of operation inevitably lead our troops to "stick" into heavily fortified and occupied by large garrisons prepared in advance for defense, continuous urban agglomerations. Thus, after some time in these areas, the situation will repeat itself, which already exists in the areas of Rubizhnoye - Severodonetsk, Popasnaya, Avdeevka and Maryinka, where the allied forces are moving forward very slowly. The enemy is satisfied with this method of warfare "more than completely." Why? Because the Armed Forces of Ukraine need another one and a half to two (maximum three) months to prepare large reserves - not in the form of constant replenishment to the active troops, but in the form of new units and formations that can be involved in other strategic directions, while the Russian forces " bleed”, storming the fortified cities of Donbass. Without carrying out at least partial mobilization in the Russian Federation, carry out deep strategic offensive operations on the so-called. “Ukraine” is both impossible and extremely dangerous.”
Perhaps this opinion sounds too pessimistic, but it has the right to exist, because the offensive of the People's Militia of the LDNR ran into Ukrainian fortified areas, which are a very difficult task to take. Fighting near Avdiivka, which they unsuccessfully tried to take by storm several times with the support of aviation, is a prime example of this. And delaying victory, as already mentioned above, is fraught with the fact that unfriendly Western countries will become more and more impudent and provide their Kyiv puppets with more and more serious weapons systems. Russia definitely needs a major victory, and for this it needs a build-up of forces.
- Victor Biryukov
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