Europe is attacking the US economic rake. Will Russia come on them?
Considering the modern Western financial concept, one involuntarily comes to the conclusion that it is becoming more and more like a kind of sand castle, which looks very nice, but only all this relative beauty can be destroyed at any moment by a surging crisis wave. To expect that such waves will no longer appear on this financial bank is simply pointless. And if everyone understands that sooner or later such waves will still come, then the steps that are being taken by Western experts in the field of economics seem at least unconvincing. An example is the famous third stage of quantitative easing (QE-3), the ideological inspirer of which was a man like Ben Bernanke - the head of the American Federal Reserve. Realizing that there are no new ways to bring the economy out of crisis in the hands of the US Federal Reserve, Mr. Bernanke decided to take the path of least resistance. His actions can be described by the well-known proverb: “after us even the flood”. To understand the essence of the Fed’s plan to bring the American (and therefore the world) economy out of the crisis, you don’t even need to go into the most complicated economic patterns and concepts of market regulation. Ben Bernanke suggested that Americans simply launch the printing press to the fullest extent. Like, if the whole trouble is that the economy does not have enough money, then you have money - just have time to rake out a shovel from under the machine and allow it to plug financial gaps with this gray-green raw material, the number of which is almost impossible to calculate.
In this case, even the person who is not particularly well-versed in the economy will say: but how is that? Doesn’t Bernanke’s comrades pushing the US economy into a new, fast-moving funnel that can tear the usual financial system into pieces? The question is quite sound, and therefore in this case, the US Federal Reserve was theoretically prepared for it. Bernanke claims that QE-3 can save the American economy, as the money spat out by the printing press will be introduced into the economic process through a fairly shaky banking system. In other words, the money will not be allowed to repay any debts, because it would be absolutely unpromising, but instead the Fed provides new dollars to banks with the goal of issuing various kinds of loans. Whether this is promising is another question. Let's try to answer it.
The situation looks more than entertaining. American citizens, business groups, enterprises that are already deeply in debt cannot cope with these debts to banks for various reasons. At the same time, the Fed pushes banks to give out to those in need as many new loans as they want for a variety of needs, including to pay off old loans ... Allegedly, now the Americans will start repaying their debts on loans, production will increase, crawl upwards income, and hence the economy to improve completely and irrevocably. But a question arises here: does Mr. Bernanke seriously believe that those citizens and organizations that did not pay off old loans would suddenly find internal reserves and repay new debts. After all, the so-called Greek syndrome will obviously manifest itself here: if a person or organization (country as a whole) is given loans, and then, writing off these debts, he is again offered to take loans, then the very desire to make any repayment will be dulled. Well, in fact, if everyone knows that Ben Bernanke has only one idea in his head: just a little thing - to run the printing press at full capacity, which again allows plugging the debt holes with freshly printed bills, the desire to work and look for real ways. out of the crisis will evaporate by itself.
In this regard, the very idea of a new stage of quantitative easing gives some naivety. Or rather, no ... This is not naivety at all, it is just a signal to the whole world that the American economists have no real way out of the current economic situation, well, or at least, the Fed does not see this way out.
After the announcement of the launch of QE-3, the dollar slipped a bit, but some other currencies strengthened ... It is obvious that the Americans want to follow the path of artificially lowering the dollar to use the so-called Chinese option (the PRC has long manipulated the yuan exchange rate as profitable for this state namely, it lowers it to put a block for foreign goods). But didn't the United States around the world talk about the need for non-interference in the economy? And what do we see today ...
If this is not pure speculation, then what then ... Did traders all over the world really believe Ben Bernanke that his next launch of the printing press would be good for the American, and therefore the world economy? Obviously not. The mechanisms of exchange speculations simply turned on when they want to show us that everything is really “okay”, official Washington saddled a raging economic horse and will now drive it through the triumphal arch into a bright financial future.
It is clear that Mr. Bernanke himself, who today is between two fires, was instructed on the eve of the US presidential elections to do at least something for external smoothing of the consequences, and then, as they say, it will be clear ...
But if the machine is started today, then it will be almost impossible to stop it, because if credits in certain volumes will not be returned (and this should be expected), then the printing machine will not be turned off at all. She will, by her own activities, extinguish those loans that, thanks to her own activities, have been allocated to business. In general, the classic vicious circle, which to everything else is also actively compressed ...
However, as it turned out, today such a collapsing mechanism of the American economy does not all feel bad. For example, the Europeans did not even think of criticizing the American plan for quantitative easing. Mario Draghi (President of the European Central Bank) announced that Europe is ready to go about the same way. In particular, to reduce the yield of government bonds of such economically troubled countries as Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and a number of others, Draghi is going to buy these bonds with funds from the ECB. But where does Mr. President intend to take money for the next round of buying up government debts? Yes, with the help of all the same printing press, but in this case European. Apparently, the "glory" of Bernanke does not give rest to Mario Draghi, and therefore he declares that such a move can not only stabilize the economic situation in Europe, but also lead the EU's economy to growth already in 2013 year. A sort of Frankfurt (ECB headquarters apartment located in Frankfurt am Main German) dreamer ...
Draghi at the same time says that assistance will be provided only to those countries in the eurozone, which the ECB themselves ask for it, and even agree to fulfill strict obligations. Striking confidence in the same Greeks with the Portuguese. Yes, of course, they will swear by anyone and anything that all obligations will be fulfilled, but in reality ... It will be enough just to change the government - and that’s a big hello to Mario Draghi, who took Ben Bernanke’s rut. They say that the obligations were given by the old authorities, and we, the new authorities, and therefore the bribes are smooth with us.
It turns out that today both the European and the American financial systems are less and less oriented towards the real sectors (production), and are moving towards the trivial economic speculation. Is this the real way out of the crisis - no!
In such a situation, when Russia is being blamed on the raw material dependence of the economy, it can be said that this dependence is no better and no worse than what is used in the EU and the USA. We sell oil, we live for it, they sell their debts to each other, they live for it .. As they say, they survive as they can. The fact is one thing: obviously, Russia, if, of course, we are going to move away from oil dependence, in no case can we copy the Western financial model, because all attempts to copy it will lead to what we are seeing today in the same eurozone - the game of debt tag Yes, and the stereotype that it is time for us to build an economy in the image and likeness of the Western one, has finally become obsolete. And if so, then it will be necessary to look for an economic solution that will be able to lead to a positive result, despite all the world troubles. Another question - is it possible in the prevailing conditions in general? ..
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