German self-propelled guns for Ukraine. Dubious source and lack of prospects
ACS Panzerhaubitse 2000 on the march
According to the German press, in the foreseeable future, the armed forces of Ukraine may receive German Panzerhaubitze 2000 or RCH 155 self-propelled howitzers. However, this information has not yet received official confirmation. In addition, the disclosed details cast doubt on the very possibility of carrying out such plans with obtaining at least part of the desired results.
According to unofficial data
On April 9, the German edition of Welt am Sonntag reported on the preparation of a contract for the supply of equipment. It received information about these processes from an unnamed source in the Ukrainian leadership. At the same time, the publication was unable to get a comment from the German government agencies or the manufacturer of equipment, which, allegedly, will participate in the deal.
According to an anonymous source, recently the German company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) offered the Ukrainian leadership to purchase 100 self-propelled howitzers. Kyiv became interested in this proposal, and on April 9 sent a corresponding request to the German Ministry of Economics. The fate of this document is still unknown.
According to Welt am Sonntag, the German side offered Ukraine to buy a hundred PzH 2000 self-propelled guns or RCH 155 combat vehicles unified with them. The supply should also include training and maintenance equipment, spare parts, etc. The cost of a complete set based on caterpillar self-propelled guns will reach 1,7 billion euros, and 1,2 billion are asked for wheeled vehicles.
The source also disclosed the proposed method of making the deliveries. If Kyiv chooses serial PzH 2000, then they can be transferred from the presence of the Bundeswehr. In parallel, KMW will build an appropriate number of new self-propelled guns for the German army and compensate for the "loss". The principles of production and supply of wheeled RCH 155 are not specified.
The possible terms of the contract are named. The first batch of equipment can be transferred to the customer within 30 months from the date of its signing. This means that it will be able to be transferred no earlier than October-November 2024. It will be possible to supply all the ordered self-propelled guns and replace them in the German army only by 2027.
Officials and structures did not comment on such news, citing the need to maintain secrecy. At the same time, Welt am Sonntag notes that even if an agreement in principle is reached, a hypothetical German-Ukrainian contract will have to go through all the bureaucratic procedures. Whether he will be able to obtain the necessary approval is unknown.
Obvious Problems
The message from Welt am Sonntag is of some interest. On the whole, it fits into the observed logic of the actions of European states and shows a possible scenario for the development of events in the near future. However, both the news itself and the hypothetical contract for the supply of self-propelled guns have a number of weaknesses. The latter make one doubt the veracity of the information and the viability of the very idea of selling the PzH 2000 or RCH 155 to the Ukrainian army.
First of all, you need to pay attention to the source of the messages. Welt am Sonntag refers to an unnamed representative of the Ukrainian authorities. The anonymity of the source is in itself a cause for doubt. His belonging to the Kiev regime also raises questions. The Ukrainian authorities are constantly trying to pass off wishful thinking, and "news" about German self-propelled guns may be another example of this.
If the deal is really planned, then it will be extremely unprofitable for Ukraine. For 100 self-propelled guns PzH 2000 and related products require 1,7 billion euros - 17 million per set. At the same time, we are talking about used equipment from the presence, which at one time was purchased for 4,6 million euros per car. Even taking into account possible minor or medium repairs, additional products, etc. the price of 17 million euros looks excessive.
The purchase of RCH 155 wheeled self-propelled guns looks more profitable. For a hundred of these machines with a kit, you will have to pay “only” 1,2 billion euros, or 12 million per unit. At the same time, the customer will receive equipment of a new production, built specifically for him, and not decommissioned.
Regardless of the chosen equipment, the contract will be too expensive for today's Ukraine. It is unlikely that Kyiv will be able to find 1,2 or 1,7 billion euros to pay for self-propelled guns. A foreign loan could be a way out, but this will not be easy, and in addition, it will increase the overall costs of the purchase. In addition, the return of the loan will be questionable, which is unlikely to please foreign partners.
RCH 155 / AGM self-propelled gun on Boxer chassis
Another problem with a hypothetical contract is delivery time. Even used self-propelled guns are ready to be transferred only after two and a half years. It is obvious that by this time the Ukrainian army and the Kyiv regime will cease to exist in its current form.
Thus, the contract for the supply of self-propelled guns PzH 2000 or RCH 155 for the Ukrainian army does not make any sense. Such an agreement would be too expensive for Kyiv, and the results of its implementation would appear too late. Probably, Germany and Ukraine understand this - and therefore the possible delivery of self-propelled guns has not yet moved beyond general conversations and dubious publications in the press.
German benefits
However, the order of German equipment is obviously unprofitable only for the Ukrainian side. Germany, in turn, can benefit from such a treaty. Of course, there are certain risks, but even partial execution of the order will have positive consequences.
First of all, KMW remains the winner. Regardless of the choice of the customer, she will have to build new equipment. If Kyiv wants used PzH 2000s from stock, KMW will produce new vehicles for the Bundeswehr. Otherwise, the company will have to build new RCH 155s. Both scenarios are interesting for KMW, although they differ in the cost of the contract. This explains why KMW, according to Welt am Sonntag, is the initiator of the deal.
The Bundeswehr can also benefit. Its artillery units are armed with approx. 120 PzH 200 self-propelled howitzers built in the XNUMXs and XNUMXs. Most of this equipment with a partially depleted resource can be handed over to Ukraine, and completely new machines can be ordered instead, incl. modernized look.
Purchase of equipment can be carried out on credit, which will attract the attention of German banks. At the same time, high risks will force them to raise the interest for the loan and insurance of the transaction. It is obvious that the banks involved will not give up the opportunities that have appeared and will try to cash in on the needy client in the person of Kyiv.
No prospects
It is not yet clear whether the latest reports from the German press are true. The only news about the possible supply of self-propelled guns from Germany to Ukraine refers to at least an unreliable source and is not confirmed by official structures. At the same time, it is easy to see that the described scheme of international cooperation - if it is implemented - will be beneficial only to the seller country, and the Ukrainian regime will not be able to get any benefit from it.
However, there is nothing wrong with this. German self-propelled guns, which can be delivered only after 30 months, will no longer hit the battlefield. Accordingly, they will not be able to prevent the ongoing demilitarization of Ukraine and the subsequent establishment of peace and order. In the current situation, this is the optimal outcome.
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