Expert Khazin: "New Yalta" will be in any case

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Today, various experts are evaluating options for further developments, based on what is happening in Ukraine. In particular, a situation is considered in which there is a probability of reaching two mutually exclusive branches of the "algorithm". The first branch is that there will never be any lifting of sanctions against Russia, and in this reality our country will build both its economy and its policy. The second branch is that there will be no ground for the sanctions against the Russian Federation to somehow work.

A well-known expert, economist Mikhail Khazin, shares his thoughts on this. According to him, there will be a “new Yalta” in any case. At the same time, he notes that the “global divorce” between the West and Russia can come both before the “new Yalta” and after it – before and after new agreements on the world order.



According to Mikhail Khazin, what happened and is happening in Ukraine will sooner or later be transferred to the European Union. He believes that everything is going to the disappearance of the middle class in Europe and to strife between certain sections of society and radical nationalists, as well as between religious fanatics.

Khazin notes that on the agenda is the collapse of the existing dollar system. It can be soft or hard, but it no longer depends on Russia. The expert notes that today President Putin in this regard "keeps the door open to make the scenario relatively mild or to minimize costs for us."

The full version of Mikhail Khazin's forecast on his channel:

40 comments
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  1. +1
    24 March 2022 16: 58
    Or maybe there will be a new Compiegne and Karhorst? Will we negotiate after they sign an unconditional surrender?
    1. +4
      24 March 2022 16: 59
      And the world cracked in half, the crack smokes,
      And blood is shed, there is a war between good and evil.
      1. +7
        24 March 2022 17: 04
        Let's hope for the predictions of Vanga, who predicted that Russia would rise above everyone, all the peoples who had left her would return, and she would be the leader of the new world.
        1. +1
          24 March 2022 17: 46
          New Yalta will be after the signing of the surrender, as was the case in Berlin and Tokyo Bay.
        2. -1
          24 March 2022 19: 16
          according to Vanga, Russia will be an ark where all peoples will gather to survive, and the Russians will remain purely Arkhangelsk region
          1. +1
            24 March 2022 19: 48
            It's not that we have a lot of space)))
    2. 0
      26 March 2022 20: 16
      then it’s not Yalta, but Potsdam
  2. +5
    24 March 2022 16: 58
    Expert Khazin: "New Yalta" will be in any case
    . Khazin claims that he has been studying the topic for a long time, 20 years, has a clear theory of how and why this happens.
    At least he speaks convincingly .... time will tell who the guru is, and who just passed by.
    However, it is worth recognizing that he does not refer to epiphany/guesses, but to fundamental knowledge in the field of building such theories.
    In general, it is interesting and plausible, we must admit it.
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. +1
        24 March 2022 21: 02
        When you read .... where is the meaning?
        I have no claim that this is true ... this is a suggestion to wait and see how it really is. I don't believe in predictors at all.
  3. +2
    24 March 2022 17: 09
    Only, "New Yalta" is not to be held in the Livadia Palace, but in the DPR, which has not yet been rebuilt. And prepare stools for the "guests" so that they sit harder.
    1. +2
      24 March 2022 17: 53
      Quote: Egoza
      Only, "New Yalta" is not to be held in the Livadia Palace, but in the DPR, which has not yet been rebuilt.

      And we say: "Putin, stop the tanks!!!...in Lisbon"
    2. +3
      24 March 2022 18: 11
      I offer this chair model for potential partners.
    3. +1
      24 March 2022 19: 11
      And prepare stools for the "guests",

      Let them stand as naughty in the principal's office. They'll be able to sit down later.
    4. +1
      25 March 2022 19: 18
      Not stools, but boxes with broken glass to think quickly!
  4. +4
    24 March 2022 17: 18
    Expert Khazin: "New Yalta" will be in any case

    I don’t know about Yalta, but I have no doubt about Nuremberg.
    1. +4
      24 March 2022 18: 05
      meticulously noticed hi
  5. +1
    24 March 2022 17: 20
    Well, a certain part of the public has long (since the beginning of covid times) been talking about the "New Normal", the death of the old world and the construction of a new one (in the best traditions of Orwell).
    But they talk about it in the context of a global, world project (Schwab with his WEF, Gates, etc.).

    Actually, it is natural that in the new world there will be no place for the middle class, political and economic freedoms, and so on.

    But where does the geopolitical fuss for pieces of land then? Russia is waiting for exactly the same fate.

    Yes, and "Yalta" divided the world, and now this world will not be divided, but reformatted.
    1. +3
      24 March 2022 17: 31
      Pieces of land are sometimes very important in military and economic terms.
      1. -4
        24 March 2022 17: 43
        I want to say that if Russia is still an integral part of the coming world order, then all these fantasies about the "New Yalta" are worth nothing.
        Well, if Russia was decided to be disposed of (which I am inclined to), then this is still no longer relevant.
        1. +2
          24 March 2022 18: 02
          Of course, shout "Hurrah, we won!!!" on the ruins of the world, this is still a gift, but not so bad. Each system has a limit, we have been built into this system since the late 80s. How many years ago (even here on the forum) the question was asked: "What prevents tomorrow from saying that we are now selling resources for rubles?" Something got in the way, now the time has come. So "we will survive ourselves and we will survive all." Hare to wipe his feet, backfired.
          1. -2
            24 March 2022 18: 11
            For rubles, dinars, drachmas. I'm not interested in television chewing gum, sorry.
        2. -1
          24 March 2022 20: 13
          You've probably read science fiction. I forgot what the medicine is called, I would tell you, I feel sorry for you ...
          1. +1
            24 March 2022 20: 26
            Fantasy? It’s like I’m now promoting the anti-globalization agenda. I didn't come up with this, but they write. And actually practice confirms their words.
            Take the same covid: almost all countries of the world actively killed small and medium-sized businesses (the same middle class), actively nullified all the civil rights of their population. And corporations and banks were no less actively pumped up with loot.

            One can argue with all this, but this is much more relevant (for humanity as a whole) than fussing in Ukraine and discussing battles near some Zazhopinsk.

            P.S. As for Russia, I made such a conclusion based on the fact that they are generally trying to turn Russia off from civilization. They don’t just take away money from the Russian elite, but cut off the country from the rest of the world (sports, culture, tourism,).
            1. -1
              24 March 2022 20: 30
              one of our diplomats answered all your fantasies ... (I'm talking about sanctions and so on) I won't repeat myself, it's not the place ...
              1. +2
                24 March 2022 20: 34
                So your diplomat is in Sweden, what is he to do? For him, his children, nothing will change in life. It is unlikely that he monitors sugar prices or stands in line at the ATM.

                He is from the nobility, the servants do not care about his problems. Can afford :)
                1. -1
                  24 March 2022 20: 36
                  you tired me, to tell you something - not to respect yourself ... the topic is closed ...
                  1. +3
                    24 March 2022 20: 39
                    Maks Winter (Maks Winter)
                    6 December 2021 19: 36
                    NEW
                    +7
                    "Interest rate case": how Deripaska and Nabiullina argued
                    Speak all right. Even just the other day, in just a week, the kilogram of salted herring increased from 180 to 295 rubles. The question arises, - On what basis ??? The answer is simple - Our fishing artels and herring-catching farms ship the catch abroad, without going to domestic ports ...


                    My friend, you were indignant at the prices of herring 2 months ago. And now you are trying to tell me stories about sanctions and how you don’t care.
                    If anything, this diplomat of yours, most likely, will not even feed his dog with herring.
                    He is from another world.


                    Go, please, continue to discuss "analogous", victory after victory, and so on.
                    I did not get into your interlocutors. All the best.
                    1. 0
                      24 March 2022 22: 09
                      no, that’s irrepressible))) God’s gift with scrambled eggs should not be confused, probably ... with people like you, you need to talk in real life in order to convey ...
    2. 0
      24 March 2022 19: 22
      Fursov speaks well about closed and open reports and just as clearly says that the West is going to bury the middle class, not only how, but also why.
      1. +1
        24 March 2022 19: 43
        The middle class is the backbone of the bourgeoisie, supporters of liberalism, the market, democracy and other human rights.
        Naturally, in the new world with social ratings and the dictatorship of corporations with all sorts of WHOs, there is simply no place for the middle class.
  6. 0
    24 March 2022 17: 48
    Something similar I read in the novel "Walking through the torment". There, too, the masters of the word spoke about the "Slavic question", about the "host of Christ." Everyone knows what came of it from 1914 to 1917. But there are the words of Myshloevsky in "The Days of the Turbins" - "Now our affairs have not begun." It is better to step aside. In one sentence, capitalism dresses up in Stalinist clothes.
  7. +2
    24 March 2022 18: 05
    Perhaps I will somewhat upset the hurray-cap throwers with a portion of a cold shower.
    Let's start with whether we like it or not, but in the days of the Iron Curtain, despite the really huge social bloc and well-known trade restrictions, the Western states lived for themselves, did not grieve. And without us. And technologically advanced. So much so that when the ZhZ collapsed, they came to us and bought everything with giblets, for whiskey and beads. This I mean that individual citizens who believe that there in the west they will die in hellish writhing "without our something" - think about it.
    Right across the Mediterranean, Europe has a great pod full of oil. There is a miserable population, no nuclear weapons, etc. All that is needed is to restore a semblance of order there by planting another idol at the head. This task should not be overestimated - if the well-being and well-fed life of the EU is on one side of the scale, and these "difficulties" are on the other, then the issue will be resolved quickly. It is also worth noting that in the same direction there is a thirsty downright bobble Nigeria (by the way, 50% more than us in population), which is also ready to supply Europe with energy resources. There is also Iran, with which the EU tried not to spoil relations, and which can cover some of their needs for them. If the question comes up bluntly and the price is the loyalty of the EU - Uncle Sam will throw this bone at them and everyone (almost) will be happy.
    Further, it is worth noting that despite the popular mantras of the Greens, the issue of the canonicity and "greenness" of nuclear energy is not such a closed issue in the EU. And here their dependence on us is near-zero, because not only we can (suddenly) be able to do standard nuclear power plant projects around the world, quite unexpectedly for our cheers-man in the street, nuclear power plants are being built in Canada and in France and in the USA. Moreover, projects of especially protected nuclear power plants are already in full swing, reducing the risk of "dirty emissions" to a minimum.
    Nuclear power plants in Europe can potentially solve the issues of both generation (for electric cars, etc.) and heating issues of the "unfortunate freezing Europeans" that we love to savor so much, completely ignoring the fact that European winters are not like ours, even Moscow.
    Taking into account the rather strong economic and political ties between the EU and the African states mining uranium and the fact that by separating the United States from our uranium, we are now tempting them to deploy large-scale (and knowing America's habits, one can assume that it is also transnationally oriented) production of enriched uranium for fuel rods (at least) - we get a very stable foundation on which the EU will be able to stand without us.

    The western post-colonial world is quite self-sufficient in fact, they have $$$-EEE hungry populations in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, large parts of Asia and Oceania, 2 continents completely at their disposal, among other things. For them, all these events are fraught with some subsidence of welfare and economic structures - but no more. They are quite accustomed to this, both politically and socially. Regarding the stability of Western systems (especially for those who like to "bury" capitalism) - since the "Great Depression" the welfare of Western states has been steadily growing, contrary to spiteful critics.

    Most likely, the sanctions are "seriously and for a long time", the Western world is not accustomed to living apart from us in fact. We will again sit in our "bear corner" and will depict a special path and blablabla, there they will again relatively systematically equip most of the planet according to Western patterns. Everything was as it was, and remained - it just blew away the forests and scenery.
    1. +1
      24 March 2022 18: 17
      The Western post-colonial world is quite self-sufficient in fact, they have $$$-Eee hungry populations in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, large parts of Asia and Oceania...

      Keyword POST-colonial. From this, he did not stop being a colonial. And those who are thirsty for a dollar you listed have long given everything, and no matter how much they crave, there is no extra for them. Nothing personal, you're not worth that much.
    2. -2
      24 March 2022 19: 24
      how much did a kilowatt of energy, a cubic meter of gas and a barrel of oil cost at the time of the ZhZ and now?
    3. -1
      24 March 2022 22: 22
      the welfare of Western states is steadily growing
      Almost 2 decades in England have been telling me otherwise.
      equip most of the planet
      Most of the planet did not support sanctions against the Russian Federation and does not particularly want to be equipped. The trouble is that many studied in Western universities, and learned something and understood something.
      1. +2
        24 March 2022 22: 44
        Do you mean growth relative to ourselves, or dynamic growth, relative to us?
        If regarding ourselves, then over the "two decades" in the WB there was at least 50% inflation of the pound (this is an approximate inflation in the EU during this time), so it probably did not become better to live with respect to itself.
        But is life better there compared to us, for example? Apparently, yes - because with the greater mobility of the Western population, we still observe an outflow there, and not an inflow from there. So what about us (RF), there is still growing welfare.
        I can’t judge by England - I can judge by France (acquaintances there) and Germany (a childhood friend lives there) - the possibilities of these people and the means available to them after paying taxes, working conditions and salary - all this somehow hints to me that they live there fit.

        Well, about sanctions - you know, this is a very crafty phrase "did not support" :-) As you know, there are three options in different UN votings (if you take into account "did not vote", then 4) - for, against, abstained. Here, most of the planet is kakbe indifferent to her. But that gang that is for us - it will be smaller and weaker than that gang that is for "them". You should not add to "our" gang of the PRC - the position of the PRC is usually "abstained" and not "against". But, of course, thanks for that.
        Alas, you can't argue against the total contribution of what we call "the West" to world GDP. This is both money and power and a well-maintained space for life. A life that looks, despite everything, satisfying and attractive to a large part of the world's elites and middle classes. This is the key to the gradual reforging of the world.
        The trouble with the Americans is that over the past 20 years they have unnecessarily crushed this very delicate process. While they are still not fully aware of it .
        1. 0
          24 March 2022 23: 02
          I can't judge by England - I can judge by France (acquaintances there)
          I can judge by England and France (my wife is from there) - the quality of life is still higher than in the Russian Federation, but it is not growing (although it is not falling with a rapid jack yet) - it is stagnating or slowly falling, and in all respects.
          most of the planet is kakbe indifferent to her.
          They are well aware of the US / EU principle - "who is not with us is against us" but did not become, like the Slovenian Empire laughing and the Balts (there, for "Denial or belittlement of Russian aggression against Ukraine" are given real terms, and even fines and conditions, only on the way) to run ahead of the locomotive shouting "we are for a free world." This silence is silent support.
          and money and power and a well-maintained living space
          The advantage becomes less and less clear. We'll last another 40 years at this rate, and then I'll go to the crematorium sad , and here it will be almost a completely different living environment.
  8. -4
    24 March 2022 18: 15
    Let me be an expert too. A few years later, in the news, "farmer Vasya bought a bag of dollars because of burlap"
  9. 0
    24 March 2022 20: 15
    new yalta. with whom
  10. -1
    25 March 2022 10: 04
    Later ... later ... Putin will surely take into account Stalin's experience and agree to negotiations from stronger positions after he gets all the trump cards ... and bargains more .... and with guarantees ... and on the ceiling on the areas of new our territories.