Considering the fact that in Germany there is some kind of democracy, it will be allowed to doubt the compulsory construction by the Germans of “Great Germany” and “chewing on Europe”. Angela Merkel (Chancellor) has quite a high authority, and so that he remains high, she will ask her people: what do you want, dear Herry and Frau? And half of the Herr and Frau will answer her: We don’t need Europe at all, we will live well without the European Union. That is not just not bad, but much better than in its composition. Give a Deutschmark! - that's what half, if not most Germans, will say to Chancellor Merkel.
In mid-September, 2012, TNS Emnid, conducted a large-scale survey among Germans, French and Poles (over a thousand people in each of the three countries), as a result of which It revealed: almost two thirds of the population of Germany (65%) thinks that it would be better for the country to abandon the euro. These two thirds most believe that their life with a mark would be “much better” or “relatively better” than with the euro.
Judging by the survey data, the Germans are not going to peacefully “seize” Europe, but rather are unhappy that Germany is forced to support the weak economies of the EU, in particular, the “long-suffering” Greece. Moreover, thrifty Germans fear that the eurozone financial crisis will strike at their savings. 49% of Germans believe that Germany without the European Union would be better.
For comparison, the French, whose economy is not as brilliant as the German one, are more positive about the euro: here, only 36% of respondents believe that a return from euro to franc will improve the country's economy. Just over a third of the population is ready to leave the European Union.
In early September, Moody's lowered the outlook for the European Union; henceforth it is “negative.” The reason for this was precisely the risks of the most powerful economies of the Union: Germany, France, Great Britain and the Netherlands.
However, at the moment Germany’s anti-crisis policy, in which many analysts see, by the way, is not the “fifth Reich”, but the EU’s financial savior (at least temporary), not the “one-person”, but the joint one. Germany is not going to pay for the sins of debtors alone. Frau Merkel's approach is not at all aggressive and imperial, but pragmatic and consolidating - and skillfully built on a compromise between extreme points of view.
Chancellor Merkel считаетthat Germany (and at the same time France, the second EU economy) is entrusted with "special responsibility" for saving Europe. As we see, Frau Merkel does not believe in the new imperial future of Germany at all. On the contrary, it stands for the European community, and not for the total centralization of the EU, led by some successful manager countries in the face of the Union’s advanced economies, which will impose their will on outsiders like Spain or Greece, which is on the verge of leaving the economic community ( now there is a general strike: there are no buses, trains, no planes flying, and even doctors ... yes, that doctors, journalists - and they are on strike).
Speaking at an event dedicated to the 50th anniversary of reconciliation after World War II, Ms. Merkel said that Germany and France should work to strengthen ties between states, because “good and trusting relations cannot be considered a given.” Moreover, Germany and France will work for the future of Europe together with other European countries. Here is her words: “We need to strengthen and stabilize the eurozone.” And also: “We are working to make Europe’s economy more healthy and sustainable. In this regard, Germany and France have a special responsibility. ”
The German chancellor is very little like the invader of Europe, you see. The German people, who partly want to go back to the Deutsche Mark and who are not afraid to leave the EU, are also not like the nation that was determined to dictate its will to Europe.
But another thing is that in the eurozone countries they are talking about German dictate - economic. This is a kind of financial blockade: the Germans set the conditions, but there is nothing left for the crisis countries to follow. That is to do what Angela Merkel orders. Otherwise - the pipe, that is, "default". On the other hand, the Germans save those countries (like Greece again) that their money was being knocked while the Germans worked and saved. The Greeks, great experts in the field of mythology (not only pagan, but also political - see Plato’s “State”), having joined the EU as a feeder, should once and for all assimilate: it was not the Olympic gods who created the man, but created labor. And if materialism is not their best, then welcome out of the EU. Salvation of drowning in this case is the work of the drowning themselves.
The other day, the “big three,” that is, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, will finally decide what to do with this very Greece. If Greece is still allowed to “float free”, then an unprecedented large-scale financial crisis will occur in the EU that will break out not only in a matter of days, but in hours. The capital will flow from Greece, the stock markets will stop, many banks may close, investors will temporarily lose access to accounts, etc., etc.
To prevent this terrible European economic "aramageddon", however, special measures have already been developed, including buying (without restrictions) debt bonds of crisis countries - of course, Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and others, where financial matters are most bad and where austerity measures help little, and at the same time they harm, causing mass discontent, protests, demonstrations, clashes with the police, strikes, pogroms, the use of water guards and rubber bullets by guards (as was the case in Madrid the other day) and . In short, the EU is unsteady, and no special financial measures can not do.
Angela Merkel constantly repeats: there will be no Europe without the euro. With this slogan, the Chancellor is going to go to the polls. In the end, not all Germans decided to switch to the brand and secede from the EU. Now, if it does not burn out with Greece and other debtor countries, then ... In this case Germany already has Yes suitable money:
“There is a 10 denomination of Deutsche Marks, an absolutely ordinary bill that was in use until the introduction of the Euro. Other banknotes were issued in 60's, at the height of the Cold War. Almost no one was holding them in their hands. Special series. This money should have been used in the event of the start of the Third World War.
Banknotes worth 19 of billions of special marks were recently discovered in the old bunker of the German Central Bank. Then they were transported somewhere. It is known total 29 billion ersatz marks was released. Not much, given the current size of the German economy, but that's enough. After all, the Germans, and especially German companies, practically do not use cash. And to convert funds in the accounts is not a problem. The price marks can still be exchanged for euros. ”
But these are all speculations of journalists, having nothing in common with practice.
Germany follows the eurozone rescue strategy only: after all, the collapse of the euro will cost German banks, insurance companies and industrial firms, as well as citizens, approximately EUR three trillion.
Therefore, in addition to the plan of the ECB Head Mario Draghi, the person responsible for direct purchase debt issues in troubled EU states, recently, 12 September, finally approved a new system to deal with the financial crisis through the EU budget control agreement (“euro pact”) and the agreement on the creation of a special fund to save the euro - European Stabilization Mechanism (European Stability Mechanism, ESM). The new mechanism was approved by the German Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe and declares the rejection of the previous principle, according to which each EU country pays for its debts itself (this principle was established when the European single currency was introduced). On the same day, September 12, the world's financial markets reacted positively to the momentum from Karlsruhe. European stock index rose up by 1,1%, returning to the highest point after March 2012, and the euro against the dollar was $ 1,2885, which is the highest figure since May. Finally, the cost of risk for bonds in Italy and Spain has decreased.
Chancellor Merkel immediately delivered a speech in the Bundestag, in which, among other things, she said: "This is a good day for Germany and a good day for Europe." She added: “Once again, Germany is sending a strong signal to Europe and the whole world. Germany is resolute in its responsibility in Europe as the largest economy and significant partner. ”
Like this. Germany is a strong partner, not the financial colonizer of Mother Europe. Try to find here the arguments about the “fifth”, or some other “Reich” there ...
The authorized capital of the ESM fund is € 700 billion. Each of the eurozone participants has a share in it proportional to the GDP of his country. For example, Germany It has 27,146% (€ 190,024 billion), France - 20,386% (€ 142,701 billion), Italy - 17,914% (€ 125,395 billion), Spain - 11,904% (€ 83,325 billion), Netherlands - 5,717% (€ 40,019 billion .), Belgium - 3,477% (€ 24,339 billion), Greece - 2,817% (€ 19,716 billion). The least have: Cyprus - 0,196% (€ 1,373 billion), Estonia - 0,186% (€ 1,302 billion), Malta - 0,073% (€ 0,511 billion). You also need to know that of the total amount of 80 billion - direct contributions 17 of the founding countries of ESM, of which € 23 billion - German money. The remaining € 620 billion represents only guarantees and warranties from eurozone countries. It is easy to understand that the Greek, Italian or Spanish obligations - candy wrappers.
The German “power” over Europe can manifest itself upon ratification of the agreement on ESM: the agreement enters into force if it is ratified by the member countries that have 90% of its total capital. Without ratification by Germany having 27,146%, ESM could not start work.
And so that other analysts did not think that in Germany, supposedly marching towards the “fifth Reich” and preparing to suppress Europe soon, despite the opposition of the German people, the aforementioned German people applied democracy (which comes, by the way, from Greece).
The fact is that 37 of thousands of Germans, and with them several deputies of the German parliament and the parliamentary group “Left” (these are former communists) from the Bundestag filed collective claims to the German Constitutional Court - just for compliance with the ESM agreement and the “European Covenant” with the country's constitution . Legal skeptics wondered whether these agreements were undermining Germany’s budget sovereignty. 12 September court decided: no, do not undermine.
The constitutional judges also determined the conditions that limit Germany’s participation in the ESM: first of all, the limit of the country's financial obligations is the amount of the authorized capital of € 190 billion. Exceeding this amount is permissible only with the consent of the German representatives in the fund and subject to approval by the Bundestag.
So much for democracy - with which Angela Merkel will surely be reckoned, having taken her pre-election promises not from the ceiling.
The German left believes that the EU rescue mistake is in disregard for the true causes of the financial crisis in the eurozone. “We believe that the so-called system of saving the euro passes by the real causes of the crisis. For example, it does not affect financial speculation, instead, thanks to commitments to save money, European countries are driven into economic chaos ", - says Chairman of the German Left Party Katya Kipping.
This is true, but there are no win-win options in the crisis struggle. Debt obligations themselves (interest-bearing securities) are a reason for speculation. Critics of the economic policy of Germany and the ECB are not able to offer other options - except that Germany’s exit from the EU and the transition to the Deutschemark. But 37000 votes for such a decision is clearly small. And Angela Merkel is well aware that the rejection of the euro will lead to a fall and the German economy. A cautious policy of support with minimal losses for the Germans is the best alternative to all “uncompromising” solutions, which is fraught with destabilization. It is necessary only Germany to give a hint about their parting with the EU - the EU will collapse. Even rumors of this can devalue the euro.
By the way, with regard to the plan for the redemption of state bonds Mario Draghi, then he now verified (lawyers of the European Central Bank and the Bundesbank) - already in compliance with the requirements of EU legislation. Transparency and democracy is enough.
According to experts, the program of unrestricted buying up of government bonds may violate the cornerstone position of the EU, prohibiting direct coverage of the state budget deficit of member states by single bodies of the community. The reason for the verification was that in the process of adopting 2012 in August by the Board of Directors of the ECB of a program of unrestricted buying up of government bonds of problem countries in the eurozone, one person voted against it, namely, the head of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann.
At the same time, Germany calls on the EU crisis countries to save. Measures unpopular, however, you love to ride from a hill - be able to carry sleighs.
And the crisis countries econom dictate Germany do not like. Perhaps some gentlemen here really see the "fifth Reich". For example, the former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi the other day He accused Berlin is that in the course of the crisis, the euro has dictated economy to the EU partners, and this only aggravated the economic downturn. Mr Berlusconi, giving an interview to the Italian edition of the online newspaper Huffington Post, said that Germany is a hegemon state that dictates the rules of economy and discipline to other European countries. He also noted that on the site of the current Prime Minister Mario Monti would not be such a "vassal of Germany."
If Berlusconi, with his right orientation, criticizes Germany, what German “fifth Reich” can we talk about?
The “refutation” of ideas about the “dictate” of Germany over Europe can also be found in the recent collective proposal of the heads of foreign ministries 11 from 27 of the EU countries to create an EU presidency, elected by universal suffrage, the establishment of the EU foreign ministry, the introduction of a single European entry visa and even the possible formation of a unified army. This is reported in the draft reform adopted following the meeting of the group on the future of the European Union, which includes the foreign ministers of Austria, Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and France (the largest and most influential states of the European Union, with the exception of the UK). It is clear that the main role in this group is played by Germany and France.
However, the project can also see Germany’s good chances of “dictating”: after all, the reform project suggests the abolition of the right of veto, which a number of EU countries now possess in matters of foreign policy and security, as well as upon ratification of the European treaties. In the case of approval of the reform, the EU countries will have to support those foreign policy measures with which they disagree.
If it is ironic to assume that Angela Merkel becomes president of the EU and Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, then supporters of the idea of the “fifth Reich” can declare, if not right, then some perspicacity.
However, the idea of creating a common EU army and a single defense market belongs Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland. It is a consolidation, and not at all dictated. And against this idea were made, we note, not the Germans, but the British, who remember their imperial past.
In a word, whatever one may say, but Germany sees its future in the EU. We are not talking about total centralization of Europe through the suppression of its aggressive Germans, but about saving the European Union and saving the Germans themselves (saving three trillion euros in their large and deep pockets). Another thing - if you can not save the European Union. But in this case Germany will not preside over anyone ...
Observed Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru