In the 12-day maneuvers involved ships from 25 countries (according to other data - more than 30), led by the United States. On this occasion, the first vice-president of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Problems Konstantin Sivkov сказалthat "the exercises are designed to work out the joint actions of the naval forces, aviation, marine corps from around the world in solving the rather difficult task of unlocking the strait. I believe that still the main goal of the exercises is precisely this. ” And twenty-five countries mean a strong coalition that the United States put together in its anti-Iranian plans, Sivkov said.
As for the determination of the West and Israel to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to the expert, it is “quite large”. True, at the moment, "in the military-strategic respect, there is no force necessary for an effective strike on Iran." The creation of such forces “will require significant material resources, significant financial investments, in a crisis this is very problematic for the West. As for Iran, Iran will be able to repel the strike of an aviation group of 300 to 500 aircraft. ” With a larger number of attacking aircraft, “somewhere around 1,5-2 thousand aircraft, Iran’s air defense forces will be suppressed, and the task of defeating Iran’s nuclear program can be solved. But 1,5-2 thousand cars is a very large-scale grouping, which is not being created at this stage. ” And “300-500 vehicles, mind you, this is a lot, should be concentrated almost 80 percent of the aircraft carrier fleet USA".
Therefore, the analyst believes, the operation against Iran will fail. Another thing is raids like strikes against Tripoli and Benghazi (1982), such strikes, according to Sivkov, are possible.
However, experts do not talk about an immediate attack on Iran. That's another thing - after the elections in the United States, more precisely, after the New Year, after the inauguration of the American president. Especially if warlike Mitt Romney is done. It was then that someone would definitely hit someone.
In September, the participants of the Luxembourg Club at the meeting in Geneva are many they said that a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities will still be inflicted. And it can happen just after the inauguration of the new US president. This is foreseen by retired generals.
Famous expert, head of the Middle East Institute Yevgeny Satanovsky believesthat "the maximum likelihood of a worsening of the situation in Iran is between January and July, but this does not mean that it will not happen earlier." Opinion, of course, very vague.
In the case of "aggravation" Iran can deliver a preemptive strike. Recently, the brigadier general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Amir Ali Hajizade expressed on the topic of war. Tehran will not begin its start, but it can preemptively strike Israel at the moment when it “lifts a hand” for an attack. And at the same time Iran attacks the US bases in Bahrain, Qatar and Afghanistan. And in general, according to the general, the enemies of the Islamic Republic are not able to appreciate all of its military power.
Sometimes - and, perhaps, often - it seems that the Iranian military underestimate the enemy. For example, the deputy commander of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, said that Israel does not pose any threat to Iran, because it is not even able to deal with the Palestinians. “It is enough for an infantry battalion to smash the backbone of this so-called state in one day, the width of which in some places does not exceed 24 kilometers,” said Salami.
Thus, we note that if the Iranians seem to have a battalion of guards enough for Israel, then in order to get rid of America, Iran will first show Bahrain, Qatar and Afghanistan where the crayfish spend the winter. This is not to mention the blocking of Ormuz, where the naval forces of 25 countries are now training to fight with Iran.
This Iranian bravado (however, the usual) against the background of European and American sanctions and the policy of Israel’s threats looks at least strange. In addition, the Tehran Air Force has already outdated (unlike Israeli), Shahab-3 missiles will not reach Israel, and Sejil missiles (able to cover a distance over 2000 km) will reach, but their accuracy leaves much to be desired (however Tehran would not fall into Palestinian autonomy) . The Hezbollah attacks on Israeli territory are likely to be preemptive strikes, but Israelis know how to deal with this: the dome, shelters, response missiles, and so on.
So bravado. Iran is capable of military actions, and it is likely that they will carry them out in the event of aggression. But to act immediately on five fronts - in Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, Afghanistan and the Strait of Hormuz, which will have to be mined, Iran simply cannot. And he will not be able to withstand a coalition of 25-30 states.
What caused such bravado of generals and high-ranking officials of Iran? The answer is the same: work on the creation of nuclear weapons. Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, is likely to be right, and six months later, Tehran will make a corresponding announcement.
One may doubt this, but Tehran has only one way to prevent or stop military aggression: declare the presence of an atomic bomb. Ahmadinejad probably heard about the fate of Hussein and Gaddafi and knows what is happening in Syria, where they are fighting on the side of Assad, including the divisions of the IRGC. To avoid being trapped by “democratizers,” the Iranian president took radical measures that the international community for some reason does not want to recognize as activity in the sphere of the “peaceful atom”. In the end, the States do not come together in the DPRK, and Israel also has atomic weapons.
If we assume that Iranian officials, for example, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Fereydun Abbasi-Davani, are telling the truth, and Tehran not going to enrich uranium above 20% (and this is done because of the impossibility, due to unilateral sanctions imposed by Western states, to acquire on the world market the 20-percent nuclear fuel necessary for the Tehran research reactor), and generally enriches only up to 3,5%, then bravado Iranian military does not look very nice. In fact, these are empty words against the backdrop of formidable military exercises conducted by the anti-Iranian coalition in the Strait of Hormuz. And these words are worth no more than the recent statements by Kim Jong-un of a planned missile attack on the offices of South Korean media that incorrectly illuminated the ceremonial events in Pyongyang.
By the way, not everyone in Israel believes that atomic weapons are being created in Iran. In an interview with the newspaper "Haaretz" Chief of the General Staff, General Beni Gantz saidthat Iran is not trying to make an atomic bomb: “Iran is gradually approaching the moment when it will be able to start producing an atomic bomb. He has not yet decided whether to take a decisive step for this. While its installations are not samples of bombs, but this program remains too vulnerable from the Iranian point of view. If the chief executive, Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, wants this, he will be able to give orders for the production of the atomic bomb, but first he must decide. So it will be if Khomeini considers that he is invulnerable in retaliation. I think that he would have made a huge mistake, and I do not think that he would take a decisive step in this direction. I think the Iranian government is made up of very sober-minded people. But I agree that such power is dangerous in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists, who in special cases could have a different calculation. ”
The myth of the Iranian military nuclear program, according to V. Mihin, was fabricated by the Anglo-Saxons after the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. "The strategic plan of the West, - пишет he later envisaged the seizure of Iran into ticks from the territory of these two neighboring countries and full control over the country, its economy and politics, as it was in the days of the Shah. At that time, the US and British secret services spread false information about the so-called. Tehran’s nuclear program, as they did with Saddam Hussein’s alleged weapons of mass destruction program. ”
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the framework of the UN General Assembly, where he was to discuss about the "nuclear problem", has already made several statements. By the way, America met comrade Ahmadinejad and his people unkindly: the USA not given twenty visas to Iranian representatives intending to participate in the General Assembly, and the residents of New York came up with posters "Ahmadinejad has no place in New York" and demanded that the Iranian delegation be expelled from the United States. (American “hospitality”, whose legs and arms grow straight from American propaganda, finds, of course, a worthy response throughout the world).
Ahmadinejad, as expected acted criticizing Israel: “We see that some members of the Security Council, who have veto power, have decided to close their eyes to the nuclear warheads of one fake regime. At the same time, they impede scientific progress in other countries. ”
Iranian President tried to break through the thick barrier of Western propaganda, contact to journalists with the following philippines: “If someone invades the US and occupies them, destroying homes with children and women, jailing young Americans, unleashing five different wars with neighbors and threatening others, what will you do !?” What would you say to that? Will you help this country? Or will you help the people of the United States !? ”And further:“ Why does the world allow us to allow threats against such a country with deep roots and historyhow is Iran? Great country. Do you think that the “X” country can declare that it is attacking the “YPC” country only on the basis of suspicions that it is doing something unacceptable? Could this be a formula to control the world? ”
As for the "nuclear problem", it is not, because Iran was ready now готов make a deal with the West: “We have no problems with its discussion, we always wanted a dialogue. We have a clear logic: we are convinced that if everyone adheres to the letter of the law and each side respects the other, no conflicts will occur. ”
But this is not enough for the West считает Ahmadinejad. The goal of the West is not a “nuclear issue”, but the overthrow of the Iranian government and the establishment of its own order in the region. “Do you really believe that the nuclear program has the whole root of the problem?” Do you believe that we have several tons of 3,5% enriched uranium? And you also believe that this is only the only problem for those who put enormous pressure on us? .. "
On another occasion, turning to the press, Ahmadinejad demanded from the IAEA for this agency to be taken over by Israel, which does not allow any inspectors to inspect their nuclear facilities. Interest in the activities of Iran, while completely ignoring Israeli atomic weapons, Ahmadinejad called "evidence of double standards" of the UN Atomic Energy Agency.
Thus, around the "nuclear problem" of Iran, there were so many statements associated with a huge number of conjectures, opinions and ridiculous rumors, peppered with dangerous military rhetoric from both Israel and Iran, that predict the possibility of war between the forces of the Israeli-Western coalition and the Islamic Republic - occupation extremely ungrateful.
One thing is clear: if Ahmadinejad and his generals talk about defense, then Israel and the West, on a short leash with which the IAEA is located, are playing their tricks in full cheeks. The West’s tendency to bombings and interventions emphasize not only and not so much the teachings in the Strait of Hormuz as the past US and NATO military operations in the Middle East, the fire of the “Arab spring” and support for the “opposition” in Syria (where, by the way, the Americans also began an intensive search Omp). President Ahmadinejad cannot wish his country the fate of Iraq or Libya.
Observed Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru