Europe, what are we to do with you?
Unity in the face of danger has always been useful and very often in the world stories was bearing fruit. Today, you are directly touched when you watch how Europe, trembling with fear, is trying to stop Russia with sanctions. In general, it is similar to how not too well-bred children try to stop the train by putting pebbles on the rails.
Sanctions... Yes, of course, the examples of the same Iran (and we are going there too) show that it is sickening to live with them, but it is possible. Of course, there are inconveniences. Moreover, if we approach the issue of sanctions very seriously, we can significantly complicate the life of any country integrated into the world community.
Now, if we take North Korea as an example, then they have any sanctions that Styrofoam is to axes. The country is brewing in its cauldron and nothing can get through them. And there are countries that are smothered by sanctions easily and naturally. It's all a question of approach and execution.
What really can Europe come up with that will really be sensitive for Russia - that's what you can think about.
The efforts of the Czech Republic are already perceived as a kind of anecdote. Yes, Czechs do not like Russians, there is such a thing after the Prague spring in 1968. They are very vindictive. Prague in 1945, saved from bombing, is not remembered, as the whole war, aircraft and Tanks they riveted Germany, they don’t remember, but they remember the mess in 1968.
There has been information that Czech brewers have announced a boycott of the Russian market. Well, what can I say ... Bravo. For such a solution, everything must be steel, not only the usual parts of the body for such situations.
For losing SUCH a market is really a Decision with a capital letter. Here's just one question: where will the Czechs put such an abyss of beer? Neighbors? But the Poles brew themselves quite good beer. Not "Pilsner Urquel", but "Tyske Gron" - very much so. And if for my taste, then everything that “Brovar” cooks is no worse than Czech. And if we take into account that Poland is the fourth country in Europe after Germany, the Czech Republic and Austria in terms of the production and consumption of beer, it is clear that there is nothing for the Czechs to catch.
Ukraine also brews quite decent drinks. Lviv beer (as well as Lviv chocolate, by the way) is a European level. And the Czechs will not be allowed into their market, especially now.
Germany and Austria are leaving, and what is left? France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria are traditional wine countries. Although the Spanish "San Miguel" for my taste - well, the same "Bayern", just not bitter.
In general, the Czechs will face a crisis of overproduction. No problem, good luck.
Yes, our factories (the same Krusovice) may face the problem of lack of raw materials for production. It is unpleasant. But not fatal. People drink Baltika...
The same goes for cars. Some European manufacturers have very loudly stated that everything else, they do not work in Russia yet, the factories are closing. It is unpleasant. These are unemployed Russians.
But it is also a lost market for Europeans. Physics, so that it is not empty, because the world does not like emptiness. And any vacuum will be filled with something. At the moment, automakers in South Korea and China are simply drooling over information about the shutdown of BMW, Ford and others.
China will easily replace much of what the Europeans remove on the Russian market. Half of the Volkswagen models can return to the market under the FAW or Jetta brands (another German-Chinese joint venture in China), and you can easily live without the second half.
And it’s also worth remembering the Indian “TATA” and “Mahindra”,
Of course, it will be very difficult for a very limited part of the Russian population to live without BMW, Range Rover and Mercedes products. But I think the president will come up with something about the essence of the moment and patriotism.
And a bit of sober gloating. Unsold cars will cause what? That's right, the same crisis of overproduction. And factories will cut output. Or even stop for reasons that will be discussed below.
And if you imagine how happy the hoteliers and tour operators of Montenegro, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Spain and France feel today, how they welcome the fact that the richest tourists in Russia (we have Turkey and Egypt for the poor) will go somewhere else ...
In general, the rather shaky European economy, which has been hit by sanctions, covid, and the crisis, does not feel very good anyway. Yes, the Russian one also has problems above the roof, there is no dispute, but the question is who will get it harder.
For starters, I could not find any data on how the EU is going to deal with the consequences of such a hastily launched economic struggle. Apparently, they are not going to compensate for the losses, which could result in another strong blow to the weakening economy of the European Union.
No, it is clear that the European Union is still a hero who seems to be firmly on his feet. But forgive me, even if such a hero is treated with a log on the head from time to time, he will collapse. And, sooner rather than later.
I agree that Russia's sanctions could be a very painful blow. But not fatal, as much as some would not like it, but painful. Maybe even very painful.
However, the market is such a thing, it also obeys the laws of physics and does not really like emptiness. As for gas and oil, by stopping the consumption of which Europe so wants to scare Russia, then, if not immediately, they can be redirected. In Asia, there will obviously be those who want to buy energy.
But what will Europe do? Gas, sorry, is not only heating. Gas is an industry. Gas is electricity. Especially for those who are not friends with nuclear power.
Russia holds about 33-34% of the European energy market. Replace? Easy? No, it won't work. Neither Qatar, nor Saudi Arabia, nor even the United States, will be able to take and compensate for such a loss.
As I understand it, the main initiator here is the United States. What it will be possible to gnaw off on the market with the supply of its LNG, the States will gnaw off. As much as they can, they will bring as much, especially since the prices will be simply gorgeous in conditions of shortage. And what they can’t, they will give to others. But just like that, they won't be able to compensate for the loss of 30% of the market.
So Europe simply has a chic prospect - an increase in the cost of electricity and those who are far from France with its nuclear power plant, the shutdown of plants and factories, and some problems for the population.
Unobtrusively, I draw your attention to the fact that the United States almost does not participate in this dance. Yes, the service of old Boeings will be stopped. The rest is somehow modest behind the scenes. The main hubbub in Europe.
Why? Yes, because everything is very profitable for the States. And LNG will be sold, and you can not be distracted by Europe and Russia, which are clearly clinching in the economic ring, and you can safely pursue your interests in Asia.
And Europe will deal with its problems on its own. And, by the way, such fireworks with special effects are possible here that you grab your head.
For example, Muslims of African descent who are settling in France, did they come to Paris to work and pay for Russophobia out of their own pocket? Yep, right from Monday! The deterioration of living conditions in France will come back to haunt, as usual, pogroms and burned cars on the streets. A French Muslim from Africa is not Russian for you. He will not tolerate this kind of injustice.
So really, France - get ready. And Germany too. There are more than enough backbones there to arrange a second Paris in Hamburg.
And in the east they look at all this quite normally. China is silent, looking towards Taiwan, conducting maneuvers and clearly watching how it all ends. Gaining experience and evaluating opponents. Taiwan will be hysterical, but it is clear that there will be no war for Taiwan's production capacity. There will be only capitulation until the comrades from mainland China have destroyed everything.
And Pakistan, which supports China in its confrontation with India, suddenly decided that it was time to make friends with Russia! Moreover, someone else, and Pakistan, has not been among the friends of Russia since the days of Soviet Afghanistan. And suddenly, Prime Minister Imran Khan declares that Pakistan is on the side of the showdown around Ukraine, and Pakistan is ready to buy everything that Russia has left there this year. Particularly interested in "little" - 2 million tons of wheat, well, a little bit of gas. For myself.
It is clear that Pakistan did not just suddenly decide to become a trading partner. Explicit "feed" was from the PRC.
For some reason, the South Koreans also did not apply for sanctions. Basically, it's understandable. At the end of 2021, the Kia Motors concern, which includes the Hyundai and Kia brands, sold more than 370 thousand cars in Russia. The undisputed leader. And "Samsung" is in the lead in mobile phones and smartphones (more than 20% of the market), although other household appliances are doing pretty well. In addition to them, there are also “small things” such as LG and Redmond, and other Korean brands would also be happy to snatch their piece of the market.
So while the Europeans and Americans puff out their cheeks in the sanctions race, the South Koreans and the Chinese will tear off the remnants of the Russian market from them.
And who knows, but in general, will those who so proudly began to support Ukraine with sanctions have somewhere to return?
This question is a question. And it will stand for a long time and impressively, like a concrete pillar. Sanctions will turn against European brands. And the Russian consumer is such a capricious organism that he can easily switch from Volkswagen to Kia, in the absence of an iPhone, Samsung will do, and Redmond will do instead of a Phillips coffee maker.
I am generally silent about Chinese brands. And that China can easily supply everything assembled on its sites, but under its own labels.
Yes, that's where it will be hot, so it's at the Russian Railways. They are too carried away by integration into Europe and therefore there may be problems. After all, Sapsan is a 100% foreigner from Germany. "Swallow" - also "German", but production was established in the Urals, in Upper Pyshma, but from imported components. And there is also "Strizh", which comes from Spain.
These are high speed trains. And with locomotives, everything is like this: only two companies produce them in Russia, TransMashHolding and Sinara.
TransMashHolding cooperates with the French company Alstom, in cooperation with which Allegro, Skif, EP20 are produced. And there are a lot of imported "offal".
And Sinara, which produces a range of freight locomotives Ermak, Sinara, Granite and Black Granite, does this in alliance with the German Siemens.
In general - there is where to hit. But there is something to answer.
In fact, this sanctions madness is useful. Both for us and Europeans. Our “import substitution”, which by 80% was reduced to re-sticking labels (thank you, Belarusians, taught us!), Still, should come to R&D and production of the necessary groups of goods. That's right, from development to production, everything should take place on Russian territory, and not be ordered in China under our brand.
And it will be very useful for Europeans to starve in terms of energy and still understand that Russia is not just a gas station country from where you can download energy happiness at an affordable price and in unlimited quantities. This is their interest, and, in the end, respect.
Why not? Who said that Russia is not worthy of respect as a country?
That's what we'll deal with in a little while. The fact that Europe simply does not have the strength to continue the sanctions war is becoming more and more clear every day. And sooner or later the moment will come when all the forces will end completely and irrevocably.
And then what?
And then all that remains is just to bow to Russia. Someone will do it with such a face that nothing happened, and he just changed his mind, and someone, perhaps, even with apologies.
The only question is what will be the finale of the Ukrainian events.
And then you have to think carefully about who to forgive and who not. Especially if by that time Russia is completely reoriented to the market of the East. And it will turn its back on Europe.
We live in a very cruel time. But it will be interesting to see the finale of this performance, which did not start at all according to our scenario.
But history is written by the winners.
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