Military Review

The West has entered a phase of global strategic retreat.

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The West has entered a phase of global strategic retreat.The United States and the West as a whole have entered a phase of strategic retreat in virtually all regions of the world, which is caused both by the ongoing global economic crisis and by preparing for the withdrawal of Afghanistan, which is difficult for NATO and its allies. This is the opinion of leading British analysts, expressed in recent days in conversations with the ITAR-TASS correspondent.

At the same time, in their opinion, this process is intensifying, and 2013 and 2014 will be the critical time. It was during this period that new anti-crisis measures would be imposed on each other, requiring major material and social victims from the population of Western countries, and the evacuation of NATO troops from Afghanistan threatening to turn into flight.

"It is impossible to deny that the West is experiencing a relative decline in comparison with the powerful economic growth of countries with new markets, primarily the BRIC group (Brazil, Russia, India, China). It also turned out to be unprepared for the current radical changes in the Islamic world," the London employee said. The International Institute for Strategic Studies / IISS. - The development of geopolitical events in recent weeks - the killing of the US ambassador to Libya, a powerful attack by the Taliban on the largest NATO base in Afghanistan - Camp Bastion, where the British are cue Prince Harry, continuing the broad anti-American speech in the Muslim world against the provocative film "Innocence of Muslims" - are evidence of the strategic retreat of the West to the new and not quite clear to him the forces. "

At the same time, developments in Afghanistan threaten to turn into a genuine geostrategic disaster for the US and NATO, independent British analysts say. "Failure in Afghanistan, threatening to follow after failure in Iraq, will be for the West historical defeat, "they say.

The turning point for such assessments was the decision taken last Tuesday by the US and NATO command to immediately cease all joint operations with the Afghan army and security forces, which employ forces from less than a battalion.

As a result, joint patrols were abolished, as well as the training and training of NATO Afghans from the number of recruits by NATO experts. The Times of London called this move "a strategic victory for the Taliban."

The decision was taken in connection with the increasing attacks of Afghan troops on the NATO forces. In the current year, 36 of such actions were committed, as a result of which a NATO soldier was killed 51. At the same time, there has been an increase in the number of such attacks in recent weeks. So, last August 15 soldiers of the alliance were killed.

“The whole strategy of transferring control of national security to NATO by government forces has been thrown into chaos,” the British radio station BBC noted in turn.

According to existing plans, the combat units of the United States and Great Britain, which form the basis of the alliance contingent in Afghanistan, should be withdrawn from this country before the end of 2014. "However, the current development of events can lead to the fact that this schedule will be revised in the direction of approaching the date of the West’s departure from Afghanistan," the BBC concludes.

“The cruel reality is that we lost in Afghanistan,” the influential British newspaper The Daily Mail said last Wednesday. “The Afghans are pragmatic: they now support those who are most likely to rule the country in the very near future. In this case, every Afghan knows that NATO will soon leave the country, and the Karzai government will either flee or be unable to hold power in their hands. As a result, Afghanistan will fall under the control of the Taliban and field commanders. "

"In any case, after ten years, Afghanistan will not resemble the country that the West wanted to build when it sent its military personnel there. Now we should clearly recognize and declare that we have lost Afghanistan," the newspaper notes.

However, it is not yet clear what the consequences of such a development will be for the region, the West and the world as a whole.

US positions in the giant region from Morocco in the west and to China in the east are weakening, IISS analysts say. This is evidenced by the fact that the current government of Iraq refused to "take into account" the request of Washington and to prohibit flights through its airspace from Iran to Syria with military and other cargo, according to local diplomatic circles. "Baghdad simply ignored these demands of the United States, as their participation in the decision of the fate of the region is rapidly falling," the diplomat said

This pessimism and extreme concern permeated and published last week in London, the annual report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies - "Strategic review 2012".

"This year has been marked by rapid changes taking place in conditions of heightened fragility and instability of the global situation," said the head of the institute John Chipman, introducing the report.

The report notes that "the modern world community is faced with the most difficult challenges: will the eurozone and the European Union survive in their present form? What will be the new balance of power in the Middle East, given the growing influence of the Muslim Brotherhood movement and the deepening conflict in Syria; the process of transferring power in China to a new generation of politicians; can the rapidly developing countries of Asia and Latin America find their new place in the structure of international relations, what part of their former power can the United States have? n ".

“At the same time, there is a powerful rise in nationalism in today's world, which practically no state could avoid,” Chipman emphasized. “This is surprising, since the rise of nationalism is taking place under conditions of ongoing globalization,” he stressed. According to Chipman, this fact how unpredictable the current situation in the world has become and how significantly the risks have increased in it, including in connection with the geopolitical weakening of the United States and its Western allies.
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http://www.itar-tass.com
28 comments
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  1. alexng
    alexng 26 September 2012 06: 37
    +14
    So, the West itself created these risks. What now rely on someone? Sami brewed this porridge and now standing up and down in der .. complain
    1. Kaa
      Kaa 26 September 2012 10: 01
      +4
      Quote: alexneg
      Sami brewed this porridge and now standing up and down in der .. complain

      What to complain about. it's high time for the Afghan NATO contingent to chant in front of the headquarters: "Suitcase-Station-Nebraska". wassat
      1. nycsson
        nycsson 26 September 2012 14: 48
        +2
        Article sucks!

        "and preparing for the difficult for NATO and their allies withdrawal from Afghanistan."

        And this is generally broed of a mare! What a retreat? With this retreat, they are putting the Taliban under attack throughout Central Asia! First of all, Tajikistan! And there are ours .........! Do not underestimate them! This is an insidious, strong and cruel enemy!
  2. Alexander Romanov
    Alexander Romanov 26 September 2012 07: 14
    +7
    The question is what the United States will do in the light of its political and military failures, which are also exacerbated by the economic collapse, an unavoidable collapse. Economically, by the 20 year, the United States will lose all its influence, and then political. Who will deal with losers, only the same losers. But Russia, India and China are growing both in the political and economic sense, but at the same time, from the military point of view, the US counterbalance will be much larger and more powerful than the entire NATO bloc. The United States understands this very well and what they will look like as a country-again losers. Amers can take a military adventure in an attempt to save themselves and their economy, they have no other choice. They just don't have time ....
    1. v53993
      v53993 26 September 2012 07: 32
      +1
      The United States has already lost time in order to ensure its salvation by means of a military adventure, with reasonable chances. Now such a gamble will only accelerate the collapse of the United States, of course with serious, but not critical consequences for the rest of the world.
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 26 September 2012 08: 22
        +2
        Quote: v53993
        The United States has already lost time in order to ensure its salvation by means of a military adventure, with reasonable chances.

        You mean the time of the strike on Russia, but it is missed. But what are acceptable losses in a global conflict, destroyed cities will create millions of jobs with the cheapest labor in the world without trade unions and any human rights, the constitution will fly into the trash along with human rights. Isn’t such a world built by the USA? Any loss is acceptable, unless it affects the circle of the elect. Obama seems to have already completed his new bunker under the White House and he built this bunker for his beloved, and not for Romney! Fascism has no acceptable losses, there is only the ideology of death, fight and destroy.
        1. speedy
          speedy 26 September 2012 15: 43
          -1
          The West irritated Muslims not out of simple stupidity (which is also enough), did you notice how France got involved? Now they will gradually move the arrows to Evroppa, there are enough of their own Muslims, and a big conflict is ready - a big conflict with an overall, but militarily weak enemy (especially in terms of the inaccessibility of the United States - after all, overseas). America is blown away, it needs a respite, and perhaps this is if it gives its geopolitical opponents a war, playing off China with Japan, and for Europe and Russia the Islamic world united in its hatred (for the grievances and humiliation suffered). Here it is America's swan song - to ignite a war between everyone and everyone, to quietly nullify debts and reboot from democracy to dictatorship, canceling all social guarantees. It is possible to stop these plans only by an early collapse of the US financial system, and precisely by a collapse, when the dollar is no longer perceived as money ... In general, I apologize for the taftologia, but "Carthage must be destroyed."
  3. bask
    bask 26 September 2012 07: 25
    +2
    The first question is who will be the president of the United States for the near term. The West from Muslim countries will squeeze out how strange Iran sounds, gaining a goth from a year in military and political terms. And a cool photo of the American woman in a handkerchief., And in camouflage. On the side of Masoudh's party. war b ... I flew in.
    1. antiaircrafter
      antiaircrafter 26 September 2012 09: 08
      +2
      Quote: bask
      American babe in a scarf

      in my opinion this is not an American woman, but some oriental one in a trophy jacket.
      1. lewerlin53rus
        lewerlin53rus 26 September 2012 09: 25
        +2
        This is probably one of those who attacked the base with the prince, because there the guys in captured camouflage wore weapons. By the way, the ratio of losses in that event is only 2 pndos for 15-16 attackers with a pile of destroyed equipment.
  4. understudy
    understudy 26 September 2012 08: 05
    +3
    To watch from the side ... but no, the WTO "entered". And this, to a certain extent, obliges "to sing in the choir".
  5. lewerlin53rus
    lewerlin53rus 26 September 2012 09: 34
    0
    The world sensed that the United States was beginning to weaken, although it did not show its appearance. It is not in vain that they are thrown through one place by many forced "allies" and puppets. Shootings in Afghanistan, Iraqi airspace refusal, murder of the ambassador to Libya. And this is just the beginning. They may soon receive such a penny when the troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan that it will not seem like little. And all over the Muslim world, as soon as they feel that the "owner" is weakened, they will instantly cut their throat, although yesterday they licked their heels.
  6. vylvyn
    vylvyn 26 September 2012 09: 43
    -3
    Quote - "Failure in Afghanistan, threatening to follow after failure in Iraq, ..... - they (British analysts) note ....."

    I still can’t understand what kind of failure the Americans are talking about in Iraq?
    Saddam sent "nah ... th" Sr. Bush - so Bush Jr. avenged his dad - did everything to get Saddam caught and hanged like a dog (not even shot as a soldier). In doing so, the Bushes were deeply satisfied. I would not be surprised if it turns out that on the day of Saddam's execution, they got drunk together in a close family circle with happiness. Further. The Americans have crushed Iraqi oil. Further. The power in the country was reconfigured to suit their interests. Further. The sales market for their goods was sharpened for themselves. Further. The army and the police were rearmed from Russian and Soviet to their own amerskoy, which secured future orders for new weapons, ammunition for them, components, spare parts, and so on. And where is the failure for the Americans? British analysts clearly misunderstand something.
  7. Alonso
    Alonso 26 September 2012 09: 54
    0
    The decline of any world empire was accompanied by wars. Wait and see.
    1. Gym teacher
      Gym teacher 26 September 2012 12: 46
      -1
      Why do you have Joseph Visarionovich jerking his head like a chicken?
  8. IRBIS
    IRBIS 26 September 2012 10: 14
    0
    The mountain gave birth to a mouse. British analysts, uncles with large heads and large salaries, expressed an opinion that has long been understood even by Down. But the most interesting thing is that they are well aware of how all American and NATO fuss in the world will end, they continue their ridiculous gestures. Most likely they know that the coming crisis will be more destructive than we see it. Therefore, all politics is aimed at searching for pretexts and situations for starting a war, which (in their opinion) will help to overcome the decline of the economy.
  9. Bekzat
    Bekzat 26 September 2012 11: 20
    -1
    the West has made a mess, in the Muslim world, now they are squeezing out to the fullest. They raised a snake, whose name is Taliban, and now they are quietly leaving Afghanistan, leaving behind, mind you, TRAINED FIGHTERS WITH WEAPONS. And where will this "army of fanatics" trample?
  10. Darck
    Darck 26 September 2012 11: 55
    +3
    Grew a snake, whose name is the Taliban
    The Taliban formed in the outskirts of the civil war in Afghanistan and at first was positioned as civil resistance. At the beginning, the Taliban fought with the militants and everything was fine until they got in touch with Al Qaeda, then they were put into the organization. When the Taliban rebelled, they were held by Pakistan and Saudis, not Americans.
  11. them
    them 26 September 2012 12: 16
    +1
    Well, now the states are not always able to get into other people's affairs and decide for others how to live, this is a disaster for them, a retreat. To defeat Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, to organize a massacre in Syria is a retreat. Then what is the offensive? Drop bombs on Hiroshima - is this an offensive? What is going on in the minds of these people? Do the states really think that someone will forget it and forgive them?
    1. nikoli25
      nikoli25 26 September 2012 12: 53
      0
      Do the states really think that someone will forget it and forgive them?
      they’ve set up the whole world against themselves, I don’t envy them
  12. Gym teacher
    Gym teacher 26 September 2012 12: 49
    -2
    Quote: jimm
    To defeat Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, to arrange a massacre in Syria is a retreat


    From the reports of the commanders of the Red Army in the summer of 1941, "the enemy was cowardly advancing"
    1. them
      them 26 September 2012 12: 53
      0
      I prefer the 1945 reports!
    2. lewerlin53rus
      lewerlin53rus 26 September 2012 14: 14
      +1
      But ours heroically retreated. And if France lay under the Germans in 2 weeks, then we came to Moscow so beaten that they weren’t enough for more.
      1. Rider
        Rider 26 September 2012 14: 32
        -3
        Quote: lewerlin53rus
        France fell under the Germans in 2 weeks, then we came to Moscow

        The "uryakalok" have a mess in their heads.

        From the border with Germany to Paris was 400 km.
        The French defended for 42 days and lost in shame

        From the border of the Soviet-German border to Minsk was 400 km.
        The Wehrmacht occupied Minsk on June 28, 1941. 6 days after the outbreak of war
        recourse
        1. lewerlin53rus
          lewerlin53rus 26 September 2012 14: 49
          +1
          Quote: Ryder
          The "uryakalok" have a mess in their heads.

          Does anyone have porridge? You forgot who was in Berlin in spring 45 !!
        2. Bigriver
          Bigriver 26 September 2012 15: 44
          +1
          Did you run with a curvimeter through Belgium, or did you put a ruler?
          Do you want something different? Let's calculate the average daily losses of the Wehrmacht in the French campaign and in the 41st in Russia? Adjusted for the outfit of the forces of the parties?
        3. them
          them 26 September 2012 18: 10
          +1
          Dear Ryder No. 1. Unlike you, the German generals respected the Russian army: “The originality of the country and the unique character of the Russians gives the campaign a special character. The first serious adversary. ”
          Field Marshal Brauchitsch (July 1941). Can you change the flag on the avatar? But somehow it turns out incomprehensibly.
    3. Che
      Che 26 September 2012 15: 48
      +1
      Quote: Fizruk
      At the same time, the development of events in Afghanistan threatens to turn into a real geostrategic catastrophe for the United States and NATO, independent British analysts say. "The failure in Afghanistan, which threatens to follow the failure in Iraq, will be a historic defeat for the West," they note.


      The boomerang law, the violence of amers will return to them with even greater violence. After their departure I carz kirdyk. In general, amers really have no power.
  13. Allegedly
    Allegedly 26 September 2012 12: 57
    +1
    It is not necessary to associate all Western countries with the bloody Anglo-American regime. England is not Europe, it is an American aircraft carrier moored off the coast of Europe.
  14. Centaurus
    Centaurus 26 September 2012 14: 23
    0
    I never thought that I would applaud the bearded uncles from Afghanistan fellow .
    US time, I want to believe passes. But firstly, America can decide on the last throw, having thrown all its reserves into battle for all its enemies, and secondly, the question remains: who will take the US place as hegemon? .. I don’t want to exchange Shilo for soap request that is, the United States for some sort of Britain, Germany, or even a strengthened European Union.
    EDIT BRICS !!! drinks
  15. nycsson
    nycsson 26 September 2012 14: 42
    +1
    Just not retreat, but offensive !!!
    1. Gluxar
      Gluxar 26 September 2012 18: 54
      -2
      The retreat is precisely that. The USA is the only super power since 1991. She has all the cards in her hands, even the final collapse of the Russian Federation, even the final destruction of communism in China and Vietnam. Build a New World Order as you wish. Instead, they stuck in Yugoslavia, then Afghanistan, and eventually into Iraq. Today, the Middle East has been rocked, which has been controlled for 60 years already. This is a failure.