The events in Ukraine, or rather the hype around everything that is happening, somehow alienated the main thing for the sake of which everything was started. But the problem that the President of Russia is trying to solve remains. The security of our country is still under threat. And the global West has not yet made any attempts to solve it.
It is clear that behind the beautiful words about the restructuring of the system of international relations there are many problems that are not yet visible to an ordinary layman, but which arise and will arise almost daily. Moreover, these problems will affect, to one degree or another, all the countries of Europe and most countries of the world.
Thanks to the media, most readers are confident that the main problem that needs to be solved today is the United States. Let's assume that the Americans agreed to the conditions that Moscow puts forward. What will happen then? First, US influence on Europe will be greatly weakened. And secondly, who will take the place of the United States as the European leader?
Thirdly, and this is probably the most important thing, who and how will provide guarantees to countries that in the past 30 years have built their domestic policy on the idea of confronting Russia. Balts, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Georgia and others. It is unlikely that they will agree to be left alone with their enemy, which has been cultivated in the minds of their citizens for so long.
But there are already positive developments, judging by the Western press.
Was it promised or not?
The main question, to which Russia cannot get a clear answer, was there a promise from NATO that the alliance would not expand to the east? Moscow, through the mouths of many high-ranking officials, insists that there was a promise. The West, in response, asks for at least some written evidence. On this, most often, the conversation ends.
This confrontation could have continued further if President Putin had not stepped up his position and forced the West to think about this issue. It is clear that official documents, even if they were, cannot be found today. Gorbachev has been living in the West for a long time and today there is zero faith in his words, both in Russia and in the West. He had already tried to say something about it, but…
But Western journalists have gone the other way. The fact is that any negotiations between the leaders of states, even when they are held without signing any documents, are recorded by secretaries. And these documents, these same records of the conversations of leaders, are stored in the archives in the same way as other official papers.
So, recently in the newspaper Le Figaro, several such entries were published. In particular, a facsimile of a conversation between Minister of Foreign Affairs of the USSR Shevardnadze and Secretary of State Baker dated February 12, 1990. The recording was conducted by Shevardnadze's assistant Teimuraz Mamaladze.
Journalists single out just a few phrases from these records, which, although indirect, are proof that such negotiations were conducted. Here is Secretary Baker's phrase:
“If united Germany remains in NATO, then it will be necessary to take care of its non-proliferation of its (NATO bloc-aut.) jurisdiction in the East. And besides, Germany's obligations on chemical and biological arms».
Approximately the same work was carried out by the journalists of the German edition Der Spiegel. True, the representative of the USSR does not participate in the document published there. This is the minutes of the meeting in Bonn of the leaders of the US State Department, Britain, France and Germany.
Here is what the representative of the Federal Republic of Germany Jurgen Hrobog said then:
“In the 2+4 negotiations, we made it clear that we will not expand NATO beyond the Elbe. Therefore, we cannot offer Poland and others NATO membership.”
The US representative, Raymond Seitz, actually confirmed the words of the German representative. It's about the USA:
"...will not benefit from the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Eastern Europe ... NATO should not expand to the east, either officially or unofficially."
It is clear that any media citation as evidence of something, at the level of the president of the country, does not look very good. Officials of this level are simply obliged to rely on real documents. But, on the other hand, such materials are very helpful in shaping public opinion. People are beginning to think about who is right in this dispute.
The issue of further NATO expansion to the east is resolved
NATO expansion to the east is no longer possible today. The only state that claimed this is Ukraine. But today, even in Kiev, they understand that for membership in the alliance, it is not enough to introduce this clause into their own constitution.
Probably, readers have noticed that in the recent speeches of the Ukrainian president there are no demands for the speedy admission of Ukraine to NATO. Zelensky understands that the West has betrayed him. The only way out is a rigid dictatorship.
Ukraine must be turned into a global scarecrow. The saying about the affectionate calf that sucks two wombs no longer works. Moreover, the loans that the West gives Ukraine today are simply not needed. They almost completely go to pay for unnecessary weapons.
So, it is necessary to make sure that Ukrainians are afraid. But how can this be done given the military-technical and economic decline that we are seeing in Ukraine? the only way is to make the wrong decisions. The country is a rabid bull. Furious and unpredictable.
Hence Zelensky's mention of the possibility of creating a "dirty bomb". Hence the explanation for the stupid from President Putin on this matter. True, the Russian president “felt sorry” for the Europeans and spoke only about the danger for Moscow from the appearance of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. But rockets can fly in all directions...
Russia's response will be immediate...
So, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the start of a "special military operation to protect Donbass." What is it you already know. But I would like to draw attention to the words of the President of Russia in the subtitle.
This is not just a phrase, but practically a warning to the West to sit quietly. Now we will solve the problem, and then we will chat with you about this and that. Russia will not allow playing millions of lives of Ukrainians. If you want to play, we will play on your territory.
And the second thing I want to pay attention to. The President spoke specifically about the purpose of the operation. Demilitarization of Ukraine! Not capture, not occupation, but demilitarization. Putin gives Ukrainians the right to choose the future fate of the country.
Very indicative in this regard is one dialogue that took place today, shortly after the start of the operation in the UN Security Council.
“Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN: - I ask the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation Nebenzya to confirm that Russian troops are not bombing Ukrainian cities.
Nebenzya: “The events in Ukraine cannot be called a war, this is a special military operation.”
Quite a few words. That's what a good diplomat means. One sentence cut off all possible risks from the West. Special operation! Therefore, any attack on Russian soldiers by the military of any other country will be regarded as an attack on Russia. With all the appropriate consequences in such cases.
How it all began…
It is clear that everything began earlier than the President announced it. The Minister of Defense issued the order immediately after the end of the Russian Security Council. Reports of the appearance of Russian troops in Donetsk appeared as early as three in the morning. It was then that the first columns entered the city.
Even I, who is very far from Donetsk, had to listen to this message from the citizens of the DPR several times. "Guys, you will again enter into historylike those who once made the famous attack on Pristina in 99...”.
The panic in Kiev began the next day, on February 22, when it became clear that not tactical groups, but serious military forces were going to the republics, and there was simply nothing to resist them with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It was also interesting that the Russian military again came without chevrons. But experienced Republicans only laughed at such a "disguise."
Many people remember what a difference in equipment, uniforms and weapons was in the Crimea. Even a child could distinguish between a Ukrainian and a Russian "polite person". Approximately the same picture in the republics today. Dressed in a chic "figure", in a mandatory helmet, glasses, balaclava. He behaves emphatically politely, but clearly carries out all the commands of the commanders.
One of my Donetsk acquaintances even complained about the Russian soldiers. Arrived, standing on the sidelines. They are silent. Do not participate in the holiday. They don't even talk to us (a friend who serves in the police). The situation painfully resembled what the Crimeans once reported.
“We have not come to participate in your celebration. We have come so that no scum overshadows your victory, your holiday.
I will not predict how events will develop. Just because "anything happens in war", as Swat said in the film "Aty-bats, soldiers were coming ...". But still, some facts reveal the plans of the parties.
I'll start with the main question. How long will the special operation last? Naturally, not a single military man will give you an answer to this question. As many as you need! really, such answers will mean completely different words - disappear and litter the horizon with yourself.
However, there are things, knowing which you can talk about the timing with a certain probability. So, during such operations, the military "close the sky" for civilian aircraft. Why, why, on what grounds and other stupid questions, I will not discuss.
We will look at messages from civil airline websites. And what do we see? 12 Russian airports in the south of Russia will be closed for some reason until, attention, March 2. Further, it is not difficult to draw your own conclusion about the duration of the special operation of the Russian army.
I don't think everything will end on March 2nd. The active phase will end when cannons will fire and land mines will explode. Then it will be up to the local special services to work to identify the "asleep" saboteurs, bandits of all stripes who will crawl out of all the cracks after the danger has been eliminated.
The time will come to spread the experience of building a state to the liberated areas of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions. And it will be quite difficult. But most importantly, people will know that a mine or shell will not fly in again. There will be no more unexpected deaths.
The second important question is how will the West react? Will we fight the armies of other countries, will a world war begin. The answer to the question about the world war and about the armies of other states, I think, I have already revealed above. So let's look at the issue of sanctions.
Again, I will draw my conclusions from the reports of civil organizations. Sanctions have already been introduced. And they began to act. As a result, the appreciation of the dollar and the Euro. At 8 am, online courses soared to 109 rubles per dollar and 130 rubles per euro. At 9 am, the ruble rose slightly - Sberbank was already selling the dollar for 101 rubles, and the euro for 115 rubles.
We have a rather difficult week ahead of us until the exchange rate stabilizes. We are indeed quite deeply immersed in the Western economy. This is our plus and our minus. How tough the sanctions will be depends on how much the West is willing to worsen the lives of its own people.
Well, the last question. Probably relevant enough for many. To what extent do citizens of Ukraine support the operation? Here, it seems to me, Mariupol is quite indicative. People were waiting. They suffered, but they waited.
Could you imagine that the representatives of the republics would urge their supporters in the regions of Ukraine not to intensify their actions today. urged to be vigilant and take care of yourself!
Opponents of the Kiev regime have already appeared in Kiev, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and many other cities. Zelensky's power is bursting at the seams. I think the Donetsk people are doing the right thing. urging his supporters to take care of themselves. A wounded animal is doubly dangerous.
And I will finish with a quote from the speech of the Deputy Chairman of the Council of People's Commissars of the USSR V.M. Molotov, with which he completed his speech to the Soviet people on June 22, 1941:
"Our cause is just, the enemy will be defeated, victory will be ours!"