It is extremely symbolic that the recognition of the DPR and LPR, as well as the military operation against the Kiev regime, took place exactly 8 years after the coup took place in Kiev. Cause and effect coincided very symbolically.
By recognizing Donbass, Russia has opened the way to peace for 4 million residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. Donbass should not be the subject of bidding and an instrument of pressure for anyone. Should not be a point of tension by which to legally maintain civil war status in Ukraine, preventing it from joining NATO. Donbass should be able to live without listening to the whistle of shells. To live without the expectation that tomorrow the punishers will visit them, as the Minsk agreements implied.
In fact, the entire information campaign called “the accumulation of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine” was needed in order to reinforce the idea among the world community that Russia is the aggressor in the face of the upcoming Western (Ukrainian) provocation. Carefully preparing the ground for a provocation, the Americans wanted to deprive Russia of the element of suddenness in political decisions and exclude any non-military means of returning Ukraine to Russia's zone of influence. Everything should go according to the scenarios of the White House, not the Kremlin.
It must be admitted that Ukraine is the largest geopolitical success of the United States in confronting Russia. This is a win-win situation for the United States, while Russia is placed in a situation where the West, through Ukraine, can at any moment force Russia to use military force to enforce peace. A large-scale attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Donbass or a provocation against Crimea will force Russia to apply the Georgian scenario in the worst interpretation and still move Tanks to Kiev.
Both sides, both the US and Russia, see the collapse of the Kiev regime as a realistic scenario. As conceived by Washington, this regime arose in 2014, only to eventually be sacrificed by the Russian army. They squeezed everything they could out of him in the area of creating problems for Russia and, apparently, the time has come to write him off. Russia is placed in a situation in which the West will not lose, regardless of whether the red-black flag of the UPA or the flag of Russia is over Kiev. All those "Nuland cookies" were solely to create a Ukrainian-Russian massacre, which is designed to weaken Russia and break Russian-European relations.
The West understood that he had climbed into someone else's garden and sooner or later he would have to run away. They understood this even before Russia's proposals for security guarantees and were in no hurry to deploy their bases, supply critical weapons in the form of air defense systems, operational-tactical missiles, missile ships, modern aviation. None of the weapons systems delivered to Ukraine is of strategic importance and does not set the task of preserving the Kiev regime, but increases the probable losses of the militia, the civilian population of the DNR/LNR or Russia.
In fact, what's the point of keeping a huge grouping on the border, preparing a "surprise attack", if you can bring up the entire necessary grouping after the start of the air campaign? Then, before a ground invasion, Ukraine is already guaranteed to lose aviation, air defense, weapons depots, headquarters and the largest military bases with a large accumulation of armored vehicles. However, it still makes sense to openly deploy equipment in the field and transport echelons during the daytime if it is necessary to withdraw part of the AFU forces from Donbass to other sections of the border and send a signal that Russia will directly intervene in the attack of the APU in Donbass. But, as we can see, neither one nor the other happened, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine nevertheless decided to escalate, forcing us to recognize the republics of Donbass, to start a military special operation.
Now, after the official recognition of the DPR and LPR and a large-scale special operation against the neo-Nazi regime, all the voices of skeptics who assured everyone that Putin “surrendered Donbass” have died down. Of course, in 2014, having Yanukovych's invitations in hand, Russia could end the Nazis who seized power in Kiev by military means. This was best done in April 2014, immediately after Turchinov's decree No. 405/2014 on the start of a military operation against the DPR and LPR. After all, before this decree, there had not been a single shot in the Donbass, even despite the appearance of the first armed militias in some cities. It was not too late to do this even after Poroshenko came to power during active battles in 2014 and 2015. This would have given the United States the opportunity to secure the status of an “aggressor state” for Russia, but would have saved thousands of lives in the Donbass.
Of course, the sentiments of people in Donbas in 2014 were almost identical to those in Crimea. We just have to find out the exact reason why we missed the chance of the Crimean scenario, at least in the Donbass. One can recall the protest activity in other regions of New Russia... Especially Kharkov and Odessa. It must be admitted that the long-standing status of Donbass as an unrecognized gray zone with a military conflict alienated many supporters of self-determination or integration into Russia in Ukraine. For 8 years, a generation brought up on textbooks has already grown up there stories with a portrait of Bandera on the cover.
The Russian government is not immune from mistakes. She staked on the possibility of knocking the Ukrainian regime out of the zone of influence of the Americans by diplomatic means, in the hope that the Ukrainian oligarchy would sell out in favor of the prospects for further economic cooperation with Russia. But the Western whip in relation to the Kiev regime turned out to be much stronger than Russian carrots. The wrong strategy of Russia in relation to the Ukrainian government and, apparently, an incomplete understanding of the depth of the external control of Ukraine by Western intelligence agencies led to the current situation. No “shake hands, hugs” with the Ukrainian leaders helped to bypass the mechanisms created by the West to put pressure on the Ukrainian regime. However, this does not mean that the Russian authorities then completely resigned themselves to the situation in Donbass and the growth of Russophobia in Ukraine, which is so close.
It is obvious that the Ukrainian authorities had no particular desire to commit suicide, but they were forced to. The US has enough tools to put pressure on the Ukrainian regime. There are things that are more terrible for the Ukrainian financial and political elite than the loss of Kiev and the image of the fugitive "spiders". Threats to the assets of Ukrainian oligarchs, incriminating evidence from the secret services, the organization of a new Maidan or an armed coup by the Nazis - all this is within their power. All this directly threatens their lives and their money. Against this background, the lives and well-being of the electorate fade.
The expression that characterizes the Ukrainian political elite: "both yours and ours" in this case played a cruel joke on Ukraine. If Zelensky did not play along with the West, but stopped the war in Donbass with one of his decrees, then everything could be different. But he began to pose as an ideological Bandera, lost two-thirds of the rating. At the same time, he never became his own for Ukrainian neo-Nazis and simply turned into another war criminal.
If a hot spot disappeared in Ukraine, where neo-Nazis can let off steam and which they use to mobilize society against Russia, then it is logical that their aggression would spread to the current regime. But at the same time, as it turned out, even the most radical Nazi elements are still subordinate to the center. Otherwise, it is impossible to explain the reason for the almost complete lull over the past weeks. Thus, according to the LPR JCCC, Ukraine did not fire a single shell in the republic from January 28 to February 12. Whether it be the Kiev regime or its Western masters directly, there is a certain force in the world that can quickly silence the howitzers and mortars of even the most ideological Bandera fans. Too bad it was just the calm before the storm...
Ukrainian Nazis on the front line are used to the fact that you can shoot at enemy positions, residential buildings, and either nothing will come in response, or something similar will come. But with the advent of the RF Armed Forces, the situation is changing dramatically. Now, for every mine comes a radically asymmetric Russian response. Surely the Ukrainian Nazis are already beginning to learn a new slogan - "Putin will come, he will restore order!"
The militias had no motivation to hit civilians. At the same time, the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard do not even hide their hatred for the local population of Donbass. In the radical Bandera part of Ukrainian society, there is an explanation that in the Donbass live artificially populated under Soviet rule in the 30s, Russians who ousted the Ukrainians, and now it's time to oust them to Russia. This explanation is included automatically whenever it comes to the will or any electoral preferences of the people of Donbass. Therefore, it is not surprising that in the head of the Bandera militants there is an impression that harassing shelling of civilian infrastructure can "squeeze cotton wool into Russia." According to UN and OSCE reports, most of the civilian dead were on the side of Novorossiya.
The only way to quickly end the war, which was in the arsenal of the Ukrainian army, is to force the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard to withdraw all armed formations and weapons without exception outside the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. That is, outside the formed line of clashes. That did not happen. Now these units will have to run away to Lvov. Although the capital in Lviv is so Bandera...
Russia made it clear in every possible way that there would be no Minsk 3. Statement by Vladimir Putin on the loss of Ukrainian statehood in the event of an offensive in the Donbass (07.06.2018/24.04.2019/400); simplified procedure for issuing Russian passports (from 2021/17.12.2021/09.12.2021); continuous exercises and build-up of the group at Russian bases within 15.02.2022 km from the border with Ukraine from the beginning of 19.02.2022; Russian proposals on security guarantees to the United States (XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX); statement by the head of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov on the suppression of any provocations in the Donbass (XNUMX); and, finally, the proposal of the State Duma on the recognition of the DPR and LPR (XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX), as well as the statement of the head of the State Duma on the possibility of defending people in the DPR and LPR (XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX). These were more than direct signals to the West and the Kiev regime.
Looking at the tone of the address and the attention paid by the president to the history of Ukraine, it became immediately clear that it was not only about the fate of Donbass. The Kremlin has calculated the possible negative consequences of the Ukrainian reaction, up to the need to reconsider the issue of Ukrainian statehood right now.
The advance of the Russian army by 50-100 km per day shows that the enemy has no organized resistance and control. This is confirmed by numerous videos of the passage of military equipment through the checkpoints and free movement on the highways as part of large convoys. At the same time, in each relatively large settlement there is still some resistance from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or more often the National Guard. Here the first days will play the main role. The more firepower will be brought down on these pockets of resistance, the more clearly the enemy will understand that resistance is useless.
Cities have become an expectedly difficult, but solvable task. Ukrainian punishers are well aware that Russia seeks to minimize casualties among the civilian population and are deliberately trying to draw Russia into protracted street battles. The Ukrainian Nazi government also began a general mobilization. It is strange that the ruling elite of the Zelensky regime and he himself still have not received their Caliber for the massacre they unleashed.
Now the frightened Ukrainian society is simply being bombarded by Ukrainian false propaganda with fakes about thousands of dead Russian soldiers. Therefore, seeing Russian equipment, some people simply begin to perceive it as equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Also, Ukrainian propaganda deliberately, with a decent delay of 4-6 hours, informs who controls this or that settlement.
The Russian pseudo-liberal sect “No to war!” immediately became more active. For 8 years, she completely ignored the crimes of the Ukrainian regime in the Donbass, admired the “democratic aspirations” of the Kiev regime and inspired the Russians how much they needed their own Maidan. But despite their efforts, Ukraine has become the best inoculation against the Maidans in Russia for many, many years.
We can sincerely congratulate the Donbass that now it has gained real protection and, most importantly, certainty. There is no way back. No one in Russia will repeat the name of the capital of Belarus Minsk, recalling the status of Donbass. Now, according to international law, the DPR and LPR have officially become not “self-proclaimed”, but “partially recognized independent states”. I really hope that in the near future there will be another referendum that will allow the republics to become part of Russia.
With the rest of Ukraine, things are much more complicated. Ahead of her is a long process of denazification and the formation of a new statehood within new borders. It will travel this path with the help of Russia, and, perhaps, after some time, our countries will together resist the world's evil in the face of Western political elites.
No matter how difficult the situation at the front is, I would like to very sincerely wish good luck to Russian soldiers and Donbass militiamen. I would like to hope that, having successfully completed the combat mission, all of them will safely return to their places of permanent deployment, as if from exercises.