Military Review

The big war that couldn't help but start

17
Justice is the first word that comes to mind. The last days of the post-Maidan Nazi regime in Kiev have arrived. Our country began to finally resolve the urgent Ukrainian issue. This is a grandiose and tragic finale of the largest redistribution of spheres of influence in Eastern Europe, which the United States has started.


It is extremely symbolic that the recognition of the DPR and LPR, as well as the military operation against the Kiev regime, took place exactly 8 years after the coup took place in Kiev. Cause and effect coincided very symbolically.

By recognizing Donbass, Russia has opened the way to peace for 4 million residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. Donbass should not be the subject of bidding and an instrument of pressure for anyone. Should not be a point of tension by which to legally maintain civil war status in Ukraine, preventing it from joining NATO. Donbass should be able to live without listening to the whistle of shells. To live without the expectation that tomorrow the punishers will visit them, as the Minsk agreements implied.


In fact, the entire information campaign called “the accumulation of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine” was needed in order to reinforce the idea among the world community that Russia is the aggressor in the face of the upcoming Western (Ukrainian) provocation. Carefully preparing the ground for a provocation, the Americans wanted to deprive Russia of the element of suddenness in political decisions and exclude any non-military means of returning Ukraine to Russia's zone of influence. Everything should go according to the scenarios of the White House, not the Kremlin.

It must be admitted that Ukraine is the largest geopolitical success of the United States in confronting Russia. This is a win-win situation for the United States, while Russia is placed in a situation where the West, through Ukraine, can at any moment force Russia to use military force to enforce peace. A large-scale attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Donbass or a provocation against Crimea will force Russia to apply the Georgian scenario in the worst interpretation and still move Tanks to Kiev.

Both sides, both the US and Russia, see the collapse of the Kiev regime as a realistic scenario. As conceived by Washington, this regime arose in 2014, only to eventually be sacrificed by the Russian army. They squeezed everything they could out of him in the area of ​​creating problems for Russia and, apparently, the time has come to write him off. Russia is placed in a situation in which the West will not lose, regardless of whether the red-black flag of the UPA or the flag of Russia is over Kiev. All those "Nuland cookies" were solely to create a Ukrainian-Russian massacre, which is designed to weaken Russia and break Russian-European relations.

The West understood that he had climbed into someone else's garden and sooner or later he would have to run away. They understood this even before Russia's proposals for security guarantees and were in no hurry to deploy their bases, supply critical weapons in the form of air defense systems, operational-tactical missiles, missile ships, modern aviation. None of the weapons systems delivered to Ukraine is of strategic importance and does not set the task of preserving the Kiev regime, but increases the probable losses of the militia, the civilian population of the DNR/LNR or Russia.


In fact, what's the point of keeping a huge grouping on the border, preparing a "surprise attack", if you can bring up the entire necessary grouping after the start of the air campaign? Then, before a ground invasion, Ukraine is already guaranteed to lose aviation, air defense, weapons depots, headquarters and the largest military bases with a large accumulation of armored vehicles. However, it still makes sense to openly deploy equipment in the field and transport echelons during the daytime if it is necessary to withdraw part of the AFU forces from Donbass to other sections of the border and send a signal that Russia will directly intervene in the attack of the APU in Donbass. But, as we can see, neither one nor the other happened, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine nevertheless decided to escalate, forcing us to recognize the republics of Donbass, to start a military special operation.


Now, after the official recognition of the DPR and LPR and a large-scale special operation against the neo-Nazi regime, all the voices of skeptics who assured everyone that Putin “surrendered Donbass” have died down. Of course, in 2014, having Yanukovych's invitations in hand, Russia could end the Nazis who seized power in Kiev by military means. This was best done in April 2014, immediately after Turchinov's decree No. 405/2014 on the start of a military operation against the DPR and LPR. After all, before this decree, there had not been a single shot in the Donbass, even despite the appearance of the first armed militias in some cities. It was not too late to do this even after Poroshenko came to power during active battles in 2014 and 2015. This would have given the United States the opportunity to secure the status of an “aggressor state” for Russia, but would have saved thousands of lives in the Donbass.


Of course, the sentiments of people in Donbas in 2014 were almost identical to those in Crimea. We just have to find out the exact reason why we missed the chance of the Crimean scenario, at least in the Donbass. One can recall the protest activity in other regions of New Russia... Especially Kharkov and Odessa. It must be admitted that the long-standing status of Donbass as an unrecognized gray zone with a military conflict alienated many supporters of self-determination or integration into Russia in Ukraine. For 8 years, a generation brought up on textbooks has already grown up there stories with a portrait of Bandera on the cover.

The Russian government is not immune from mistakes. She staked on the possibility of knocking the Ukrainian regime out of the zone of influence of the Americans by diplomatic means, in the hope that the Ukrainian oligarchy would sell out in favor of the prospects for further economic cooperation with Russia. But the Western whip in relation to the Kiev regime turned out to be much stronger than Russian carrots. The wrong strategy of Russia in relation to the Ukrainian government and, apparently, an incomplete understanding of the depth of the external control of Ukraine by Western intelligence agencies led to the current situation. No “shake hands, hugs” with the Ukrainian leaders helped to bypass the mechanisms created by the West to put pressure on the Ukrainian regime. However, this does not mean that the Russian authorities then completely resigned themselves to the situation in Donbass and the growth of Russophobia in Ukraine, which is so close.

It is obvious that the Ukrainian authorities had no particular desire to commit suicide, but they were forced to. The US has enough tools to put pressure on the Ukrainian regime. There are things that are more terrible for the Ukrainian financial and political elite than the loss of Kiev and the image of the fugitive "spiders". Threats to the assets of Ukrainian oligarchs, incriminating evidence from the secret services, the organization of a new Maidan or an armed coup by the Nazis - all this is within their power. All this directly threatens their lives and their money. Against this background, the lives and well-being of the electorate fade.

The expression that characterizes the Ukrainian political elite: "both yours and ours" in this case played a cruel joke on Ukraine. If Zelensky did not play along with the West, but stopped the war in Donbass with one of his decrees, then everything could be different. But he began to pose as an ideological Bandera, lost two-thirds of the rating. At the same time, he never became his own for Ukrainian neo-Nazis and simply turned into another war criminal.


If a hot spot disappeared in Ukraine, where neo-Nazis can let off steam and which they use to mobilize society against Russia, then it is logical that their aggression would spread to the current regime. But at the same time, as it turned out, even the most radical Nazi elements are still subordinate to the center. Otherwise, it is impossible to explain the reason for the almost complete lull over the past weeks. Thus, according to the LPR JCCC, Ukraine did not fire a single shell in the republic from January 28 to February 12. Whether it be the Kiev regime or its Western masters directly, there is a certain force in the world that can quickly silence the howitzers and mortars of even the most ideological Bandera fans. Too bad it was just the calm before the storm...

Ukrainian Nazis on the front line are used to the fact that you can shoot at enemy positions, residential buildings, and either nothing will come in response, or something similar will come. But with the advent of the RF Armed Forces, the situation is changing dramatically. Now, for every mine comes a radically asymmetric Russian response. Surely the Ukrainian Nazis are already beginning to learn a new slogan - "Putin will come, he will restore order!"

The militias had no motivation to hit civilians. At the same time, the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard do not even hide their hatred for the local population of Donbass. In the radical Bandera part of Ukrainian society, there is an explanation that in the Donbass live artificially populated under Soviet rule in the 30s, Russians who ousted the Ukrainians, and now it's time to oust them to Russia. This explanation is included automatically whenever it comes to the will or any electoral preferences of the people of Donbass. Therefore, it is not surprising that in the head of the Bandera militants there is an impression that harassing shelling of civilian infrastructure can "squeeze cotton wool into Russia." According to UN and OSCE reports, most of the civilian dead were on the side of Novorossiya.

The only way to quickly end the war, which was in the arsenal of the Ukrainian army, is to force the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard to withdraw all armed formations and weapons without exception outside the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. That is, outside the formed line of clashes. That did not happen. Now these units will have to run away to Lvov. Although the capital in Lviv is so Bandera...

Russia made it clear in every possible way that there would be no Minsk 3. Statement by Vladimir Putin on the loss of Ukrainian statehood in the event of an offensive in the Donbass (07.06.2018/24.04.2019/400); simplified procedure for issuing Russian passports (from 2021/17.12.2021/09.12.2021); continuous exercises and build-up of the group at Russian bases within 15.02.2022 km from the border with Ukraine from the beginning of 19.02.2022; Russian proposals on security guarantees to the United States (XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX); statement by the head of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov on the suppression of any provocations in the Donbass (XNUMX); and, finally, the proposal of the State Duma on the recognition of the DPR and LPR (XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX), as well as the statement of the head of the State Duma on the possibility of defending people in the DPR and LPR (XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX). These were more than direct signals to the West and the Kiev regime.


Looking at the tone of the address and the attention paid by the president to the history of Ukraine, it became immediately clear that it was not only about the fate of Donbass. The Kremlin has calculated the possible negative consequences of the Ukrainian reaction, up to the need to reconsider the issue of Ukrainian statehood right now.

The advance of the Russian army by 50-100 km per day shows that the enemy has no organized resistance and control. This is confirmed by numerous videos of the passage of military equipment through the checkpoints and free movement on the highways as part of large convoys. At the same time, in each relatively large settlement there is still some resistance from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or more often the National Guard. Here the first days will play the main role. The more firepower will be brought down on these pockets of resistance, the more clearly the enemy will understand that resistance is useless.

Cities have become an expectedly difficult, but solvable task. Ukrainian punishers are well aware that Russia seeks to minimize casualties among the civilian population and are deliberately trying to draw Russia into protracted street battles. The Ukrainian Nazi government also began a general mobilization. It is strange that the ruling elite of the Zelensky regime and he himself still have not received their Caliber for the massacre they unleashed.

Now the frightened Ukrainian society is simply being bombarded by Ukrainian false propaganda with fakes about thousands of dead Russian soldiers. Therefore, seeing Russian equipment, some people simply begin to perceive it as equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Also, Ukrainian propaganda deliberately, with a decent delay of 4-6 hours, informs who controls this or that settlement.


The Russian pseudo-liberal sect “No to war!” immediately became more active. For 8 years, she completely ignored the crimes of the Ukrainian regime in the Donbass, admired the “democratic aspirations” of the Kiev regime and inspired the Russians how much they needed their own Maidan. But despite their efforts, Ukraine has become the best inoculation against the Maidans in Russia for many, many years.

We can sincerely congratulate the Donbass that now it has gained real protection and, most importantly, certainty. There is no way back. No one in Russia will repeat the name of the capital of Belarus Minsk, recalling the status of Donbass. Now, according to international law, the DPR and LPR have officially become not “self-proclaimed”, but “partially recognized independent states”. I really hope that in the near future there will be another referendum that will allow the republics to become part of Russia.


With the rest of Ukraine, things are much more complicated. Ahead of her is a long process of denazification and the formation of a new statehood within new borders. It will travel this path with the help of Russia, and, perhaps, after some time, our countries will together resist the world's evil in the face of Western political elites.

No matter how difficult the situation at the front is, I would like to very sincerely wish good luck to Russian soldiers and Donbass militiamen. I would like to hope that, having successfully completed the combat mission, all of them will safely return to their places of permanent deployment, as if from exercises.
Author:
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  1. Woodman
    Woodman 25 February 2022 14: 49
    +4
    We just have to find out the exact reason why we missed the chance of the Crimean scenario, at least in the Donbass. One can recall the protest activity in other regions of New Russia... Especially Kharkov and Odessa.

    I think it was on this protest activity that the calculation was made. The Ukrainians themselves had to "demolish" the new government. Did not work out. The Nazis decided on monstrous but effective steps. They burned dozens of people alive in Odessa, they mercilessly began to crush all dissent in the most cruel ways, with the full connivance of the new authorities and the support of controlled media and the "world" community. Thus, they simply intimidated citizens who were ready to oppose Banderlogs ...
    1. paul3390
      paul3390 25 February 2022 14: 58
      +12
      No - it’s just that in 2014 our leaders were simply unprepared for open butting .. Too much stolen capital lay openly in the West, the remnants of the Soviet economy were too dependent .. So they didn’t risk it - it took time to prepare ..
      1. Woodman
        Woodman 25 February 2022 15: 03
        +6
        Quote: paul3390
        No - it’s just that in 2014 our tops were corny unprepared for open butting.

        And this too. But they took a chance with Crimea, they would have known how it would end - most likely they would have decided further.
        1. paul3390
          paul3390 25 February 2022 15: 10
          +2
          I think - Crimea was simply exchanged then for Novorossia .. Like Westerners turn a blind eye to the peninsula - and we do not touch the rest of Banderstadt ...
          1. Woodman
            Woodman 25 February 2022 15: 14
            +5
            Quote: paul3390
            I think - Crimea was simply exchanged then for Novorossia ..

            I doubt. It was then that the Nazis in Crimea "did not shine", even taking into account the full and unconditional (but only moral) support of the entire NATO. And everyone understood this. And since it "didn't shine," then there was not the slightest sense in handing over something to them for Crimea.
    2. Anachoret
      Anachoret 25 February 2022 15: 39
      +2
      And now we see an active cleansing of territories from fascist elements) Zelya stated that many soils were depleted due to the monstrous use for rapeseed and corn) now the Nazis themselves will thoroughly fertilize the local black soil))
  2. Pavel57
    Pavel57 25 February 2022 14: 59
    +2
    Author - We just have to find out the exact reason why we missed the chance of the Crimean scenario, at least in the Donbass.

    In short, the weakness of Russia at that time, including the unwillingness of the leadership (elites) to confront the West, which is behind the processes in Ukraine.
  3. Irkit
    Irkit 25 February 2022 15: 00
    +2
    "The New Elite of Russia"

    I caught myself thinking that Putin very correctly organized the process of recognition ...

    Yes, "recognition" is very IMPORTANT!
    Nobody argues!

    However, Putin has done an even MORE IMPORTANT THING!

    Through participation in the process of recognition of the Republics of Donbass, he took an oath of allegiance to the INTERESTS OF RUSSIA!

    Even during the annexation of Crimea, this was not the case ...

    Putin "pulled onto the scene" and gave EVERYONE of the first persons of the Russian authorities the opportunity to speak!

    Do it PUBLICLY LIVE, not even in front of the people of Russia, but in front of the WHOLE WORLD!

    And they came and performed! Have spoken!

    Knowing full well that as soon as they finish talking, each of them will become an unambiguous enemy of the collective West.

    Everything! The movie is over!

    No kids in English colleges, no retirement in Miami, no bank accounts in Switzerland and real estate on the Cote d'Azur...

    Neither for them, nor for their near and far surroundings.

    Because now, each of them is the one who wiped his feet on the "will of the Hegemon" and the faces of his European vassals.

    Yes, now there will be no freebies ...

    You will have to meet old age with Russian medicine.
    Teach children and grandchildren in Russian schools and universities.
    Relax in Russian resorts ...

    ...and in order to do all this well and in a buzz, they need a little, they HAVE to create a Great and comfortable country for life, because there is no other country for them anymore!

    I consider the nationalization of the elites solemnly completed!
    1. 210ox
      210ox 25 February 2022 15: 42
      +2
      I'd good good If not for one But! Some of the moneybags may not like it. And then two options - either the new 1991, or together with Hodor to Switzerland (but in transit through the bunks in Transbaikalia)
    2. Berber
      Berber 25 February 2022 16: 00
      +2
      Write very important things. But I think it's too early to consider the nationalization of the elites finished. When the country's leading entrepreneurs do the same, I think yes.
      And of course, a very important milestone.
  4. Vladimir61
    Vladimir61 25 February 2022 15: 10
    +3
    Now, after the official recognition of the DPR and LPR and a large-scale special operation against the neo-Nazi regime, all the voices of skeptics who assured everyone that Putin “surrendered Donbass” have died down...
    Yes, everything is fine now! It is bad that the author did not live next to us, all these eight years, I would have looked at his optimism!
    1. Airdefence_107
      25 February 2022 16: 17
      +2
      For 8 years, the author has called for the demolition of the Nazi regime with the help of the Russian army as soon as possible. But I did not agree with the thesis that this would never happen.
      1. Vladimir61
        Vladimir61 25 February 2022 16: 54
        +3
        Quote: Airdefence_107
        For 8 years, the author has called for the demolition of the Nazi regime with the help of the Russian army as soon as possible.
        From what podium? How wide is the audience and its influence on the political establishment of the Russian Federation? Here, all eight years, the majority supported Donbass and wished for such a decision!
        I don't blame you! I am for the fact that it is possible and necessary to speak and reason, but a completely different attitude when you have been living practically on the DB line for eight years. And when every day and night, people cried out, as if to God, - where are you, Russia.
  5. Irkit
    Irkit 25 February 2022 15: 32
    0
    Very old video but very relevant
  6. Unknown
    Unknown 25 February 2022 20: 02
    +1
    Until yesterday, I did not believe that the GDP would finally decide to eliminate this abscess, which caused a lot of trouble to both Russia and Little Russia. Better late than never. Well, he turned out to be wrong. All the same, he decided, he had enough courage. Respect for this. Not everything that Putin does is to his liking, but in this respect he is right. The main thing is not to stop halfway, you must go to the end. I hope the project - Bandera Ukraine will be closed once and for all. The only thing that worries, the cunning Turk, no matter how close the straits, then our guys in Syria will be a little bad. From him all sorts of tricks, you can expect.
  7. PPD
    PPD 26 February 2022 08: 46
    0
    Everything could be even worse.
    Can you imagine if they had a nuclear weapon?
    These ...., strange .. people would apply without hesitation. North Korea and other countries who have it or tried to get it are far from them.
  8. woffka
    woffka 27 February 2022 20: 49
    0
    They got what they wanted