What else was not feared in the USA?
“Let the giraffe be wrong, but the giraffe is not guilty, but the one who shouted from the branches: “The giraffe is big, he knows better”
V.S. Vysotsky.
So, we sit. Me and Biden. I am here, he is there, across the ocean. I don’t know what Biden has, but Vladimir Semenovich plays this song in my speakers. Morning, 16 February. Russian troops were supposed to cross the border of Ukraine and go to Kiev, sweeping away everything in their path.
I feel very comfortable, because, despite the hype around the Russian troops near the border, I understand that giving the order to go and kill Russians, some of whom stubbornly call themselves Ukrainians, is nonsense.
But for Biden, I'm not very sure. By the way, he still has to make excuses on this topic, because until February 16 no one took any special steps, but the offensive did not happen. As a result, Biden rolls up an appeal to us, telling us that we Russians do not want a war with Ukraine. And it reminds us how 77 years ago we fought against a common enemy.
In general, we are aware that it is not worth seizing Ukraine, and that the majority of the Russian people do not have such a desire. Let's not take into account the Internet warriors, they are ready to capture the whole world from their computers.
And following Biden, the Western chief alarmists from among the media are beginning to change yesterday's and the day before yesterday's materials. The Sun and Mirror have already twisted their articles, in which Russia at 3 o'clock in the morning should have attacked Ukraine. Behind them, as I understand it, all the rest will follow, shouting in unison on this topic.
Even a little sorry for Zelensky. Yes, humanly.
After all, he rushed about, begging to explain where the information about the attack came from, perhaps he wanted to do something ... Although what could be done with this stub, called the Armed Forces of Ukraine? As for me - just organize a retreat / flight to the Dnieper line. And there, observing all decorum, and calmly surrender.
But somehow the president of the country against which the aggression was to begin was not informed of anything. Well, they didn't think it was necessary. Zelensky's level is not the same, but it is his own fault. But in general - do not envy. The two months that he lived, I would not want to live like that for any money and awards. And his predecessor would definitely need a hemodez tank.
No, they know how to inflate hysterics in the West. After all, they started even before the New Year ... Everything is like in a joke: they came up with a stash, painted it, believed it, were horrified and scared everyone. They know how. We would like that.
Everyone (and Pan Ze) was interested in the question: why on the 16th? So no one could find an explanation. By the way, no one has dug up anything here either. Apparently, Joseph Josephovich was just a little ... jumped on this date.
The situation, of course, is comical: the tabloids are howling, the Internet is hot, diplomatic channels from Ukraine can heat the Rada from Monday, and old Joe only remembered this ... how her ... but, well, Ukraine only by Wednesday.
No, he comforted the people, of course, but in principle it was too late: those who had the opportunity to rush away from sin (or the Russian-Ukrainian border) rushed. Not Kazakhstan, of course, but there was also a very soulful movement of wings in the air.
To be honest, I followed the developing events not according to news channels, I was wondering how more or less sane gentlemen like Joe Trevithick, Kyle Mizokami, Evelina Shakarova, Tyler Rogoway and their other reasonable colleagues from The Drive and The National Interest look at all this across the ocean.
It was interesting how they looked at the capabilities of our army under a magnifying glass. It lifted my spirits, to be honest. But there were also very reasonable calculations, by the way.
“... it is very possible that Putin will pull his forces right up to the line, pause for maximum intimidation, and then order them to retreat” - T. Rogovei.
Smart? Quite. One more quote, it just seems to me that my friend Tyler has come close to understanding what is happening with us.
“Russia has long been capable of attacking Ukraine en masse from the north, east and south, especially in the eastern half of the country. But the concentration of Russian forces in the south of Belarus under the flag of large-scale joint military exercises puts its forces on the doorstep of Kiev. The Belarusian border is only 55 miles north of the Ukrainian capital. Tens of thousands of Russian troops are in the vicinity and are equipped with a full range of combat capabilities. This makes Ukraine also vulnerable to Russian attacks from its entire northern flank, not just from the east.”
It's like that. Rehearsal of the scenario, if suddenly an order is given to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to launch a full-scale operation against the republics of Donbass. By the way, the fact that 140 km from the southern regions of the Gomel region to Kiev is nothing, from the Bryansk region no more than 220 km, if anything.
And yes, in the case of a full-fledged large-scale operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, such a scenario is quite possible.
It is clear that for such an operation against the republics of Donbass, almost all the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be required, and therefore the Armed Forces of Ukraine will simply not be able to break apart and fight on two fronts. And the guys did not come out abruptly.
So all these terrible scenarios, reading which involuntarily imbue the capabilities of your army such as landings on Lvov, we will leave behind the scenes. As well as tank columns going to Kiev, and the Black Sea Fleet, entering the roadstead of Odessa.
Let's leave it for now.
In fact, there can be only one scenario for the development of events: these are full-scale military operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Not provocations on the demarcation line, not shelling of positions and settlements by terbats, full-fledged military operations, as was the case in 2014. That's when the answer is possible. Another "peace enforcement".
Overseas experts in their materials miss one document, which should have been given attention and time for analysis. This is an appeal from the State Duma to the president regarding the recognition of the LDNR. It is clear that in our country it is so established that the State Duma, which is the “voice of the people,” has every right to turn to the president and express, as it were, the will of the people.
Let us omit that the people themselves expressed their attitude to the problem of Donbass back in 2014. But of course, better late than never. And if the people's deputies of Russia turn to the president, there is a very high probability that the president will issue an appropriate document, recognizing the republics. And here is a very large field for maneuver.
Situation: all units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that look like something sane and combat-ready are pulled together to the Donbass today. Yes, outwardly it looks impressive, because it is about 150 thousand fighters. In the presence of cannon artillery and a certain amount of armored vehicles. Aviation no, no air defense, no missile defense.
If we add the disgusting level of training of command personnel and no discipline, it becomes clear that there is nothing to rely on such a force.
The only thing that such an army, so to speak, is capable of is pushing through the enemy defenses with large masses of infantry supported by artillery and armored vehicles. The level of the first World War, no more.
And Russian tank columns are not needed here. Yes, with such a mass of troops, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will easily be able to push through / break through the defense of the Republicans, but what's next? Next will be this: next will be Syria. Aviation and missiles of the Russian army will leave the crowds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine without everything in a day: without control, without warehouses, without fuel and ammunition, without food.
No need for tanks, no need for ships. Enough planes and cruise missiles. And that's all. Not a single army could fight without fuel and shells. Even the Soviet one.
So all these frightening plans, of course, are beautiful in their nightmare, but everything will be much more trivial. And I am sure that after such strikes, the Ukrainian army will simply begin a feverish “alignment” of the front line. All on the same line of the Dnieper.
And do not take the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for idiots. Of course, there will be a certain percentage that will “fight to the last bullet” or a drop of vodka. At the level of statistical error, but it will be. But these fighters, from among the most rabid Nazis, will not make the weather at all. There are too few of them.
But for the United States, which supplied such a considerable amount of weapons to Ukraine, this would be a good lesson. Ukrainians, even armed by the States, will not fight. The exceptional pragmatism of the Ukrainians: better surrendered, but alive, than heroically dead, I don’t understand why.
This is where those already almost forgotten postulates about “we are of the same blood” and stuff like that will definitely come up. No wonder Biden immediately remembered the alliance in World War II ...
Fear? Well, let's just say - they are afraid.
First of all, Washington fears that everything will not go according to their scenario.
A no-fly zone over the LDNR, destroyed warehouses, headquarters and command posts, burned armored vehicles on the borders with the republics - this is a very real option. Crowds of surrendered warriors of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Stingers and Javelins lovingly handed over to the Ukrainians in the hands of Russian gunsmiths. In the study, as was the case with counter-battery firing stations.
And the forces of the republics, reaching the historically established borders. An important and unpleasant moment, these boundaries. Agree that it has a lot to think about. Plus, historically Russian Kharkov is nearby, which is not a sin to free from ...
Of course, there is Crimea. Which is connected with the mainland of Russia by a thread of a bridge, which can be interrupted very calmly. But so far, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have ships capable of doing this, and “fraternal help” from NATO can turn into torn metal at the exit from the Bosphorus.
However, the conflict between Russia and NATO is also something that is unlikely to please everyone in the United States. Although three days ago they took a very incomprehensible step when they talked about aggression against Ukraine, which "is about to begin."
The point is that if a war between Russia and Ukraine starts in the Donbass, then “the entire NATO policy towards Russia can be instantly revised.”
In some incomprehensible way, the Americans dragged Georgia and Moldova into the “brewing” conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
It is very difficult to understand the logic of American throwing, especially since Moldova somehow did not ask for NATO membership. It is clear that the chain of "occupation analogies" worked in the face of the links "Ukraine - Donbass", "Moldova - Transnistria", "Georgia - South Ossetia".
And all the "offended by Russia" will then simply need to be granted membership in NATO and defend them.
Well, here I must say right away - if they have time.
I don't think it's worth recalling how quickly Georgia, even if it tried to defend itself adequately, ended. And how the advanced units of the Russian army got carried away a little did not reach Tbilisi.
Of course, NATO bases, airfields, positions, soldiers and equipment are serious things in the designated territories.
But here one question arises: who wants to die?
And it will be the NATO soldiers who will have to answer it, who will “defend” Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.
All this is not serious. And dangerous. It is dangerous for everyone, and for NATO, and for the offended, and for Russia. Of course, the conflict between the bloc and Russia looks very unpleasant for us on paper.
And for the Americans?
Second Vietnam or Afghanistan? Easy. Indeed, in order for a NATO soldier to beautifully and safely defend democracy somewhere, it is necessary that someone walk in front of this soldier, playing the role of a shield. APU? Not funny. Georgian army? Especially. Army of Moldova Yes, KVN is crying for her.
No, you have to fight yourself. And this is wrong. This is not accepted in the USA. It is necessary that the American soldier defend the interests of the United States, being behind the backs of those who are not sorry. Then everything is beautiful. But not in our case.
To unleash the Third World War for the sake of a handful of Ukrainian oligarchs and a certain number of Nazis in Ukraine ... Sorry, but they are white! How can you!
In general, the result of the entire two-month rotation is very unpleasant for the United States, and the locals, from among the smart ones, understand this.
Either the United States finally and irrevocably gets into a fight for Ukraine (Biden has enough lack of gray matter for this) and it turns out to be sheer stupidity according to the scenario described above, or they simply pretty much shake their reputation in front of the allies. Because why then everything had to be fenced?
Scenarios are the same. Especially the first one, since fighting with Russia is not Afghanistan for you, sorry. It didn’t work out there, the weakly armed Mujahideen took it with perseverance and a desire to win, and in our case, in addition to fighting spirit, there is a mountain of weapons, albeit not the latest, but quite capable and proven by more than one conflict.
And everything is at our fingertips, as they say.
So the hysteria that was staged in the West is a demonstration of complete impotence. No one will fight for Ukraine, neither Europe nor the United States. And Russia will not, it is not profitable and not necessary. It's a game in which the first to twitch loses.
Russia can spend as much resources as it likes, driving troops along the border. As long as at least one motorized rifleman has not crossed the border of the square, everyone can try to sleep peacefully. Who wants to hysteria according to the Afghan scenario - we do not mind.
But the demonstration of the "Afghan syndrome" in such conditions is not to the face of the United States. Gets what I indicated at the beginning - they themselves created a horror story, believed and were afraid.
Now the most difficult task is to separate real fears from far-fetched ones. In principle, there are a lot of competent experts in the United States who are able to properly assess both the Russian army and its capabilities. But who will listen to the opinion of a sane expert when the most famous tabloids have been yelling for two months without ceasing that "The Russians are coming"?
In the West, this is not accepted, alas.
So, answering the question posed in the title, what the United States has not yet been afraid of, I would say this: the main fear for a great overseas power is complete disappointment in their politicians, who are unable to either correctly assess the current situation with Russia, or clearly identify their line of conduct.
The American layman in general (like ours, in principle) is absolutely sure that the US army and navy are capable of solving any problems. This has been the custom for a long time, it was not invented and implemented yesterday. Ever since the war that President Biden talked about.
Therefore, it is worth remembering the shock of Vietnam. Afghanistan is a complete repetition. Ukraine can become the third stone that even a country like the United States can easily stumble over and fall into the mud on its face.
Therefore, many of us will perceive Biden's appeal to the Russians normally, as they say, with a sense of satisfaction. This is an attempt to get out of the situation where Joseph Josephovich drove himself. Well, that's already good.
We don't want war either. This Ukraine did not surrender to us either (although personally I would kill Kharkov and Nikolaev with what pleasure, I confess!), Russians will not go to kill Russians in Ukraine. After all, we won’t finish off this Russian world, which is already bursting at the seams?
The West must realize this sooner or later. It's not that "before it's too late", but for now there is still an opportunity to establish normal relations and conduct political dialogues inherent in the two great powers.
Yes, Biden said the same thing. But really, before shouting "Wolves!" or “Big Giraffe”, you still have to stick your head out of the branches and look at the world.
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