Military Review

China will destroy Western technology and expensive labor

On the Finmarket With reference to the agency "Bloomberg", the latest forecast by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economist Yuan Gangmin was published, regarding the sad state of the Chinese economy.

The Chinese forecaster believes that the downturn in the growth rate of the economy of his native country is likely to be much longer than during the financial crisis of the 2008 year. Among the reasons for the decline in growth are the deterioration in demand in foreign markets (let us add: primarily in EU countries where the crisis is rampant, including debt. The EU is the largest consumer of Chinese consumer goods and other products) and limited lending to small businesses in the Middle Kingdom.

The growth of the PRC economy may slow down for the ninth quarter in a row and reach the level below 7% in the first quarter of 2013.

According to Yuan Gangmin, the expected long recession will encourage the new leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (their names will be announced this year) to expand the list of incentives: after all, production activity in the PRC falls for the eleventh month, and the Central Bank focuses on controlling inflation.

Meanwhile, the head of the PRC State Committee for Development and Reform, Zhang Ping assures the general public that China's economy is in order, and even the notorious "bubble" in the real estate market is slowly being blown away. “The state policy in the field of economics has recently been very effective. The state of the economy stabilized, and began a slow growth. The size of speculative investments has declined, as the government has managed to influence the real estate market, ”said Zhang Ping.

However, in the second quarter, China’s economy grew by only 7,6% compared to the same period last year: the growth dynamics is the lowest in the last three years. This year, the Chinese economy should grow by 8% (government forecast), which will be the weakest indicator since 1999.

In order to stimulate economic growth, Beijing has increased investment in infrastructure projects, reduced the volume of mandatory bank reserves, and lowered the discount rate on 150 points.

But stimulus measures came under a flurry of criticism from the most experienced Chinese economists.

Wu Jinglian, a senior researcher at the Center for Research and Development under the State Council of the People's Republic of China, believes that the Chinese government’s economic incentive program is not only bad, but not feasible. In his opinionThis program will have serious consequences. By the way, 82-year-old Wu Jinglian is known for openly expressing his views, and the Chinese media call him "an economist with the purest conscience."

The China Economic Incentive Program is a package of investment anti-crisis measures. In the 2008 year, when the financial crisis hit, the People's Republic of China invested 586 billion dollars in public funds in infrastructure, health care, education, cheap housing, etc. Some economists criticized the Chinese government for such large-scale measures because of the "pitfalls".

Wu Jinglian noted that local authorities submitted investment projects worth 2,7 trillion. dollars The question is not only in projects, but also in where to get this huge money.

As one of the non-rational examples, the economist cited a project drawn up in one of the Chinese provinces. According to the project, with its introduction of GDP in subsequent years will have an increase in 14-15%. However, the amount of investment each year will increase. In 2011, the level of investment in this province was 89% of GDP, and in the first half of this year it reached already 120% of local GDP.

If investments exceed GDP and, moreover, grow further, the project is not just unprofitable, it promises big losses in the future.

The state panacea against irrational or directly unprofitable projects in China is known (with something it looks like a Russian economic medicine). To stimulate the economy, the Chinese government is going to spend a budget surplus. At the World Economic Forum in Tianjin, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said that by the end of July, the surplus was 1 trillion. yuan ($ 158 billion), and it can be used to stabilize economic growth.

Independent analyst Hu Simen warns: The CCP is going in a dead end direction, trying to maintain the legitimacy of government through economic growth. The result will be the opposite of what the party wants to achieve.

Populist measures, we will add from ourselves, to which the surplus will be spent, can have an impact on economic growth, but in the short term, and at the same time can serve to short-term strengthening the positions of the Communist Party. In the long term, this will lead to a “freezing” of the inertial policy of the government - and if the level of domestic consumption in China remains low and the crisis of Western economies causes stagnation, and then a recession.

The situation is also affected negatively by the rather aggressive foreign policy of the PRC. One example is the dispute over the Senkaku Islands with Japan. how said Recently, Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Finance, the island dispute will have a negative impact on trade with Japan. China became the largest market for Japanese exports in 2011, and Japan was the fourth largest market for Chinese exports. And what now? Japanese investment in China increased by only 16,2% over 8 months of 2012 compared to the same period of 2011, but last year the figure for the same period showed an 50-percent increase. As for China's investment in Japan, in January-August 2012, they fell by 11,1%.

Foreigners do not consider the Chinese market to be very attractive for capital investment. "The fall in foreign investment will aggravate the current slowdown in the country's economic growth" - says Joy Yang, Chief Economist, Mirae Asset Securities. He believes that the Chinese authorities should take steps to support economic growth, including measures to stimulate domestic investment and consumption.

In addition to the fall in demand in Western Europe and the USA due to the financial crisis, stiff growing competition in Southeast Asia, and at the same time in some African countries, where manufacturing is also moving, prevents China from rising.

Head of the analytical department of the IC “Trade-portal” Alexey Rybakov indicatesthat in the region, China is under pressure from Indonesia, Bangladesh and Vietnam. The profit of industrial companies in China has been falling for the fourth month in a row. In July, 2012, revenues declined by 5,4% over the same period a year earlier, in June, the decline was 1,7%, and in May, profits fell by 5,3% (year to year). In foreign firms, the analyst recalls, the profitability of operations is also declining - due to the annually increasing cost. Everything is more expensive in China: labor, raw materials, materials. And this is happening against the backdrop of weakening global demand.

Well, if labor in China rises in price so that production leaves the Middle Kingdom, in the coming 10-20 years, when the price of workers rises from Chinese competitors, the world can return to the former economic model, which is much more focused on domestic demand than on external (if you do not talk about the export of raw materials, which in the depths of the planet is also not for 200 years).

Economists at Deutsche Bank and PWC are convinced that the distribution of economic weights will soon stabilize: the world will return to the structure of the economy that prevailed before the industrial revolution.

This opinion complements the other organically. Its author, apparently, negatively relates to the “copying” economy of China.

George Magnus, a senior economic adviser to UBS, formulated his own definition of the “Asian miracle”: these countries, in his opinion, are moving “back to the future”. The West, therefore, is going forward, and the Chinese, also forward, but with the ass. And because soon they will stumble somewhere.

Until, says Comrade Magnus, the world is divided into two parts: Asia is growing rapidly, but Western countries are slowing down. But this is not for long. The main risk for the APR countries and especially for China is the development of new technologies in the West. Technological progress once led to the rapid progress of the West, and it is likely that this will happen again.

There are several high-tech areas in which, as Magnus believes, the Chinese will not catch up with the West: 1) life-changing goods (smartphones, tablets); 2) new industrial technologies (breakthrough technologies of the near future - like 3D printers); 3) shale revolution (cheap raw materials that the United States received thanks to the revolution in the extraction of shale gas and oil; chemical and construction companies should benefit from this).

Asian countries will inevitably lose in the new technological struggle. China is particularly affected, as it is involved in a complex global supply chain. The destruction of existing complex chains is one of the main long-term risks for the PRC.

As proof, the analyst cites the following facts. The interest of corporations to China is fading away - both with the development of high technologies and due to the constant rise in prices of Chinese labor resources. A modern example: Taiwanese company Foxconn, which assembles equipment for Apple, Sony and Nokia in China, said that in the next three years it plans to install a million robots in its production facilities.

Thus, companies will soon have no need to organize assembly plants in China at all and then spend money on their delivery to their own country.

In the Chinese ports, all this is already well understood.

Rui Chenkan, a leading and economic observer of the Central Television of China, 1 September wrote in the microblog: “The economy continues to go down. PMI has reached a new low of 49,2%, below the critical line. PMI steel industry accounted for 40%, which is the lowest for 4 of the year. Significantly reduced port operations in the Pearl River Delta. This indicates a weakening of production. Customs operations were down by 30%. Significantly deteriorated business in the field of freight. Thousands of freight carriers simply do not have a job. At the Zhongshan port terminal, two thirds of the containers are empty. ”

And the general director of Beijing Sunway Imp. & Exp. Co., Ltd. ", a large Beijing export-import company, сообщилthat mountains of coal have accumulated in the port of Qinhuangdao, which has nowhere to go and that "this has never happened since the founding of the PRC".

So, in the near future, China will have to compete fiercely with its neighbors who want to snatch their piece in the global economy. Also, the Celestial Empire will have to answer the technological challenges of the West. Experts doubt that China - the country of assembly and reproduction industries - is able to reach the front lines of progress, and, therefore, the Chinese will give way to the United States and Europe in a competitive battle. A couple of decades later, or a little later, when the Chinese “economic miracle” is forgotten, the world will return to its former, less open economic model of management, which will be coupled with a high-tech robotic production process. True, economists say nothing about the fact that unemployment in the Western countries will remain the same: after all, robots will now produce products, not people (robots will probably also be robots, and then see the Terminator film in the main role - A. Schwarzenegger). However, the weakening of the "Asian" dependence and the return of large-scale production to home will already be a great economic and geopolitical victory of the West over China.

Observed Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for

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  1. Ataturk
    Ataturk 24 September 2012 08: 09
    I do not like the Chinese. They have a really aggressive policy. They spit on everyone, they copy everything they like, they like the land, take it away. This is a very dangerous neighbor and cunningly insidious. Against them you must always have a club with a staff. They are not the ones to be trusted and trusted.

    Thanks to the author for the work.
    1. crazyrom
      crazyrom 24 September 2012 08: 26
      Quote: Ataturk
      I do not like the Chinese. They have a really aggressive policy. They spit on everyone, they copy everything they like, they like the land, take it away. This is a very dangerous neighbor and cunningly insidious. Against them you must always have a club with a staff. They are not the ones to be trusted and trusted.

      I think they are not dangerous. Look at the story, they haven’t attacked anyone in the last 100 or even 200 years. Well, we argued over an island there, but no occupation. Of all our rivals, this is the most harmless. We trade well with them, but they don’t need our cold land, they are more interested in the south. And even if we always have more nuclear missiles.
      1. click80
        click80 24 September 2012 09: 20
        Of all our rivals, this is the most harmless

        I will say one thing: you must not underestimate the enemy.
      2. RUSmen
        RUSmen 24 September 2012 09: 50
        crazyrom, they are DANGEROUS and even very since right now their army has become large and not badly armed, and their faces are wider. And, 100-200 years they were not clear what, they were conquered by all and sundry. Ancient China is Tibet, not today's China. You can say them from @ ram pulled the USSR onto his head.
      3. mongoose
        mongoose 24 September 2012 10: 03
        didn’t they attack anyone? Daman, in what year was Vietnam? everywhere got a wort
        1. Zynaps
          Zynaps 24 September 2012 16: 28
          it was a long time ago, the first - under Mao, the second - during the vacillation in the CCP after Mao's death - the rule of the "gang of four" and the short-term rule of Mao's ardent supporter, Hua Guofeng. the Chinese understood everything and learned a lesson.

          they still have very few elite troops. experience in conducting large-scale hostilities is not at all. and here the teachings alone are not enough. the overall stake is still placed on the "people's war" - in fact, partisanship.

          by and large - China should not be vigilant. under some important conditions:

          1. The Russian Federation will qualitatively (and not as always) engage in the construction of its Armed Forces and will again make the defense of the country the task of the whole people, and not just those who want to serve for a good salary.
          2. The Russian Federation will adopt a development program for the regions of Transbaikalia and the Far East, so that the people do not run away from there and show separatist ways. the consumer and neglect policy towards the Russian suburbs, which has been carried out so far, eloquently shows that the Kremlin either does not need this at all, or such tasks are too much for it. and such an attitude introduces amplifying neighbors into the temptation to try their strengths. but first, if they try, there will be Taiwan. then Russia should be prepared too - if successful in the south, it will be next in line.

          on the other hand, China does not need to exert much effort and colonize the northern territories of Russia - they do not have their own experience of picking in permafrost, and the daring Russians are ready to take and sell anything for the hillock for paper and consumer goods.

          Especially - I in those parts served even during the period of sharp confrontation, I studied the Chinese armed forces and military infrastructure. and now I often visit China and Southeast Asia, as a result of which I have a reasonable opinion.
          1. dark_65
            dark_65 25 September 2012 14: 14
            1. Bigriver
              Bigriver 26 September 2012 05: 26
              By no means.
              I agree with the previous speaker as a person born, raised and living on the Amur.
              The farther the state under discussion for those under discussion, the more incomprehensible and scary.
              But it was really scary all the 70s. When they are right there, across the river. And everyone under the pillow has a green quote pad Mao.
              The real brake on the appearance of bad thoughts in China regarding movement to the north and east, can only serve as a visible development of the region, strengthening its borders and the potential of the district.
              With a strong state, China will never engage in open confrontation.
      4. sergey69
        sergey69 24 September 2012 10: 42
        In the 20th century they attacked India, the USSR, Vietnam, and the former South Vietnam.
        1. Pimply
          Pimply 24 September 2012 15: 54
          South Korea is worth adding - North Korea has survived to a large extent thanks to the Chinese
      5. Ataturk
        Ataturk 24 September 2012 10: 45
        Quote: crazyrom
        I think they are not dangerous. Look at the story, they have not attacked anyone in the last 100 or even 200 years.

        Well, the last 100 years they have been put on their knees. And before, they were not so peaceful.
        they have red spots in history.

        Quote: crazyrom
        and they don’t need our cold land

        Are you sure? I do not think so.
      6. Shooter308ful
        Shooter308ful 24 September 2012 11: 11
        I agree with you that we must keep our ears open with all Russia's neighbors. China is a huge country in terms of military, technical and human potential, and such "monsters" should be treated with particular care. Yes, history shows that China and Russia get along peacefully so far, thank God. But at the same time, what are we seeing with China? And the fact that this grown "monster" has little space. Yes, this is an objective reality and a historical pattern - a newly grown giant country (economic and military at the same time) needs the Earth, namely, what is now vital for the development of the economy of any country, and the giant in particular, energy resources, a lot of energy resources. Therefore, the foreign policy of the PRC is subject to these objective laws of development. The lands and spheres of influence on our Earth were divided by the last World War. This division now simply cannot satisfy China (whose aggression we are now witnessing), which has become, I repeat, an economic and military monster at the same time.
        And here an interesting hitch opens up - Where will China go with its claims? This is such a strategic riddle of the century. What China will trample is to repeat the objective and historically determined pattern of development of any new empire. And China will trample, it has already begun to do this with Japan, definitely. And he chose the right moment - this is the active "fuss" of the old US empire in the Middle East and the elections in the US itself.
        If you look at a recent story, then we can observe the same thing with respect to Germany. Gadali, where she will trample: Europe, and then England or the USSR.
        In today's time, today's Russian politicians simply need to take into account the experience of that time. Russia should not be dragged into an armed conflict with a new "monster", with a new empire during the redistribution of the World, as the same Anglo-Saxons would very much like. Objectively, China has nothing to shove into Russia, China needs to redistribute the World between the Anglo-Saxons and China itself, and therefore China's aggression will be directed to the South-Eastern region. But this is an objective factor, but I see politics in this aspect as a purely subjective factor, and therefore, I repeat, current Russian politicians should not be allowed to drag Russia into a war with China, as the United States and Britain would very much like to - the primordial enemies of the Russian state, despite on the forced "alliance" in WWII.
        This is my purely personal opinion.
        1. Ataturk
          Ataturk 24 September 2012 11: 27
          What can I say, May God grant Russia prosperity, an army of strength and renewal, and to citizens of happiness and health.
        2. aksakal
          aksakal 24 September 2012 18: 36
          Quote: Shooter308ful
          Objectively, China has nothing to transfer to Russia, China needs a redistribution of the World between the Anglo-Saxons and China itself
          - gold words! It is necessary to make efforts to ensure that China does not have Intersen cold and harsh Siberia, but, for example, Australia and New Zealand are interesting. Without these continents, there are too many Anglo-Saxons everywhere in the world, they will not wane, all the more so since Austria is very underpopulated. Now let there be a rod.
      7. Dr. Pilyulkin
        Dr. Pilyulkin 24 September 2012 11: 24
        Quote: crazyrom
        they don’t need our cold land, they are more interested in the south

        Those. Do they need land to build resorts and spas? And I thought that they were buttging with the Japanese now because of the hydrocarbon deposits around the Senkaku Islands. Thanks, reassured. Indeed, what should they do in Siberia? They are not fools. Here and the ass can be frozen.
        PS Man, what kind of nonsense are you making a fuss?
        1. Zynaps
          Zynaps 24 September 2012 16: 36
          extracting hydrocarbons on the shelf using modern platforms and technologies is incomparably easier and more profitable than digging and sifting land for thousands of kilometers in the cold and in permafrost, and even with an underdeveloped (or destroyed) infrastructure with a degrading population. Will you figure out logistics yourself, or help?

          But when the natives themselves dig and change for Chinese smartphones - this is much more interesting and profitable. and it’s also nice when the authorities are corrupt - then it’s even easier to cook things up - just send it in.
        2. aksakal
          aksakal 24 September 2012 23: 10
          Quote: Dr. Pillkin
          PS Man, what kind of nonsense are you making a fuss?
          - I exaggerate, did not catch? So learn to read between lines. I’m straightening the text - to make it clear to the Chinese that nothing shines for them, and if they really can’t wait for their countrymen, there is beauty in the lower Pacific Ocean, and Russia will not mind if it does not lick its lands. There is an army and there is nuclear weapons. It just needs to be clearly conveyed, that’s all. And to show determination to apply, so as not to doubt. And, by the way, Australia is not deprived of minerals, rare-earth metals, including What would you know - until recently, Australia was a leader in uranium mining, until it was ahead of Kazakhstan. And rare earth metals are the favorite horse of the Chinese. I hope this is not news for you, buddy. And by the way, they change perfectly for the same oil and the same gas.
          So they have something to choose from - either cold and harsh land, for which you can get a nuclear club with a turnip, or warm and soft zemlyatse, which, by the way, they almost mastered along the way with a quiet glanders and for which the Anglo-Saxons, judging by their surrender to Hong Kong, the British colony, is unlikely to be defended to death. I know that in Australia, even Jackie Chan was a guest worker, she still doesn’t love her. There are a large percentage of Chinese, even more than in Russian Siberia.
          Quote: Dr. Pillkin
          Those. Do they need land to build resorts and spas?
          - honestly, they made us laugh. Before arguing down here, teach at least economic geography for what class it is. crying
      8. ughhh
        ughhh 24 September 2012 11: 51
        Quote: crazyrom
        I think they are not dangerous.

        For general erudition: the Chinese consider, in particular, the Russians - barbarians who, in development, are seriously behind the great Chinese civilization. At school level this is taught, search the Internet. And all the territories east of the Urals are historically historically Chinese.
        Previously, the territory of China was limited to the Great Wall of China, now it passes in the middle of the country.
        And they do not attack only because they are afraid of vigorous and chemical weapons. And so the Chinese do not consider us human. "Not dangerous", well, well.
        1. Zynaps
          Zynaps 24 September 2012 16: 30
          hospodi, well, bullshit. straight paranoia.
          1. ughhh
            ughhh 25 September 2012 00: 32
            Quote: Zynaps

            hospodi, well, bullshit. straight paranoia.

            Exaggerate, of course.
        2. sinandju
          sinandju 25 September 2012 20: 20
          And so the Chinese do not consider us people

          Guys, what are we talking about? And how do we relate to the same Chinese? What do we call them among ourselves? What about blacks? And what about the Anglo-Saxons ?, Asians, French and many others? Yes, almost any person extols his people and taunts others. This is psychology, this is not scary. The main thing is how he does it.
      9. Dr. Pilyulkin
        Dr. Pilyulkin 24 September 2012 12: 12
        Quote: crazyrom
        I think they are not dangerous.

        So the Demotivator says that you are wrong. wink
      10. Pimply
        Pimply 24 September 2012 15: 53
        The guys from India, Vietnam, Tibet, South Korea will not agree with you
      11. dark_65
        dark_65 25 September 2012 14: 13
        Living with this yellow infection side by side for 10 years. I understood one thing, we, any other than them, do not have the right to equal treatment of ourselves, and this is half the trouble ... the terrible thing is that they are not afraid to back it up with action.
        And here, and everything else is very close. Problem is a neighbor.
      12. Bumbarash59
        Bumbarash59 25 September 2012 18: 22
        in fact, the Han people have always been extremely aggressive in relation to their neighbors, at least for the last 2000 years, not for nothing that they have terrible claims to all the neighboring countries
    2. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 24 September 2012 10: 09
      Hi Omar, and whoever loves them will not even drink Petusha from our Sait. laughing
      1. Ataturk
        Ataturk 24 September 2012 10: 45
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Hi Omar, and whoever loves them will not even drink Petusha from our Sait.

        haahahhaha hello buddy. super) +1
      2. Joker
        Joker 24 September 2012 11: 23
        Oh, Alexander, I remember Petyusha laughing I will never forget his catchphrase "refute and I'll suck you off" laughing oh and eccentric smile
        1. with
          with 24 September 2012 11: 28
          Quote: Joker
          oh and eccentric

          And in my opinion it is called differently !! (((
    3. sined0707
      sined0707 24 September 2012 10: 51
      I fully agree with each of your words, or rather you will not say +++
    4. apro
      apro 24 September 2012 13: 17
      And you, my friend, are racist.
  2. bairat
    bairat 24 September 2012 08: 11
    Previously, everyone waited for the Western "decaying capitalism" to finally rot. Now Eastern capitalism has appeared, it will also apparently be eternally dying. By the way, Japan has already been buried several times.
    I want to say especially do not flatter yourself. In a healthy economy, the crisis has a healing effect, inefficient production is dying, a new and progressive breakthrough breaks ahead.
    1. Hysnik-Tsuzoy
      Hysnik-Tsuzoy 24 September 2012 09: 51
      Quote: bairat
      Now eastern capitalism has appeared

      In reality, 200 million people work in factories in China, and the rest are billion collective farmers. These collective farmers are the human resource that China will allow another 100 years to increase production in cities, if, of course, they do not let them through the knife, as it once happened in Russia.

      About the article: it is extremely primitive. Especially funny is the selection of destinations in which China will not catch up with the West. About the shale revolution - this is pure PR technology, the result of which is an environmental disaster, gas, the price of which includes thousands of hectares of polluted territories - even the Poles did not go for it. On 4 out of 5 tablets it is written that they are made where - right in China.
      1. Andrey_K
        Andrey_K 24 September 2012 11: 03
        The selection of technologies is really funny.
        But robots can actually bury a Chinese miracle.
        And not only Chinese - big changes can happen around the world if half the population becomes unemployed.
        1. Petrospek
          Petrospek 24 September 2012 12: 07
          Not all operations can be done by robots, they are good only for conveyors, and then they work at 90-100% of their load, if less, then it is no longer effective.
          Moreover, there are operations that only a person can do with his fingers, the robot is not capable of this. Until now, robots do not perform all operations on machine assembly lines.
        2. dom.lazar
          dom.lazar 24 September 2012 13: 28
          with a salary of $ 200, no robot is able to compete with a cheap toy collector, and even more so when sewing clothes
          1. Professor
            Professor 24 September 2012 15: 10
            For your information, clothes are no longer being sewn in China - they are transferring production to cheaper countries including Africa.
            1. Pimply
              Pimply 24 September 2012 16: 04
              According to rumors, in the DPRK, the Chinese are actively bossing in this regard.
              1. Zynaps
                Zynaps 24 September 2012 16: 44
                Yes, the Chinese Juche people throw a lot of things. and cars with consumer goods are trusted to do. and also, they are happy to use the railway network for the transit of goods, which the Jucheans under the leaders developed not weakly.
            2. Zynaps
              Zynaps 24 September 2012 16: 42
              sho, at all? Otherwise, I often watch all kinds of sewing there, and in the range of our shopkeepers, about 70% of clothes are "made in China". the rest is shared by the producers of Ukraine, Turkey and Belarus.

              and even the fashion of recent years has appeared: our clothes and shoes are modeled, and they sew in China. also repeatedly met a similar division of labor.
              1. Professor
                Professor 24 September 2012 17: 09
                This is the production that was translated 10-20 years ago. Try in America to find Levays jeans with a mark made in China.
                1. Zynaps
                  Zynaps 24 September 2012 17: 53
                  Honestly, I have never seen such. more and more sewn in Mexico came across. And all the popular brands. it seems that in one enterprise in three shifts figachat.
                  1. Professor
                    Professor 24 September 2012 17: 55
                    In Mexico, in Madagascar, anywhere, but not in China, because already expensive in the Middle Kingdom.
                    1. Zynaps
                      Zynaps 24 September 2012 20: 47
                      but, I remembered, I still saw Canadian jops. you see, in Canada things are very bad - they killed in a row sewing pants from the Chinese ...%)

                      Canadian clothing, by the way, met quite a lot. and even Belarusian places.
              2. aksakal
                aksakal 24 September 2012 23: 32
                Quote: Zynaps
                oh, at all? Otherwise, I often watch all kinds of sewing there, and in the range of our shopkeepers, about 70% of clothes are "made in China". the rest is shared by the producers of Ukraine, Turkey and Belarus.
                - Zynaps, our clothes from neighboring Kyrgyzstan have long been cheaper than from China. And if you take all sorts of cotton things - t-shirts, tights, pajamas and other, then the Turkmens and Uzbeks (it seems, are they raising cotton themselves?) Shut up the Chinese. Forget about China. Above wrote - Lafa from China has ended.

                Quote: dom.lazar
                with a salary of $ 200, no robot is able to compete with a cheap toy collector, and even more so when sewing clothes
                - I repeat again, read my post above about a friend from Urumqi who arrived. I just goof, I live near China and every day I hear news from there, because almost everyone darts there for any reason, you live thousands of kilometers from China, have never been there and persist in your stereotypes. Or can’t you read? What is the salary of $ 200? That was seven years ago! For China, seven years with its 8% annual growth is almost a doubling of GDP in seven years, taking into account the annuity effect!

                Quote: Andrey_K
                And not only Chinese - big changes can happen around the world if half the population becomes unemployed
                - I see nothing wrong. If anything, let me remind you that Tolstoy, A.S. Pushkin and many, many similar comrades were from free people. What does it mean - free people? And not at all burdened by daily bread. He left for a thread in Yasnaya Polyana or in Boldino, and without worrying much about food, he created a cultural heritage.
                Now there are no free people! Unemployed - not free, they are busy with survival. The oligarchs are over-occupied. They are busy preserving their positions. Top managers hired by them - you already understand. Under the top managers, office plankton are also busy people, their top managers load pretty well. About the workers at the factory - everything is clear to you. There are no truly free people. The technological miracle invented by the Anglo-Saxons - the division of labor, has completely exhausted itself. And since there are no free people, there are no cultural masterpieces. Over the past 50 years, nothing outstanding has been created at all! But robots can free people. With a large number of robots that produce themselves (self-replication), they repair themselves and then create for people everything they need - is it really difficult for people to provide a roof, food, clothes and getting the information they need? Is it right so much? You listen to greedy oligarchs more, they will not tell you that.
        3. Zynaps
          Zynaps 24 September 2012 16: 57
          this is only because 20 years ago an alternative path of development was cut off for humanity. and with the current, non-alternative - Land, such a number of consumers can not stand. while the Bolshevik comrades suggested looking for new frontiers and horizons for the application of human forces - from the development of the Arctic and Antarctic, ocean depths and a breakthrough into outer space. here for anyone there is a point of application of forces. and eating at three throats or striving for it is definitely a dead end path.

          China, on the other hand, can be considered a communist country only because of the presence of secondary sexual characteristics. the rest is a typical fierce capitalist with overexploitation and underpayment to employees.
          1. aksakal
            aksakal 24 September 2012 23: 48
            Quote: Zynaps
            Zemlya so many consumers can not stand
            - and again, Zinaps, you screwed up and caught on stereotypes imposed by the top of the golden billion.
            For information, in the fifties there was half a billion in Indi, and they were starving terribly. And now - more than a billion, and they live incomparably better. They did not have more land, arable land due to the jungle - also not particularly - and restrictions, and you won’t especially conquer from the jungle, very laborious. Better management and the construction of the state - what it includes, think for yourself, and you can feed a doubled population, although before that they could not feed half as well.
            In extreme cases, we turn to compound feed. For your information - compound feed in the current sense - nutrition that is optimally balanced in terms of a set of vitamins, aminoxylots and proteins (protein) for fast growing livestock or poultry. People in a purely physiological sense differ little from livestock, I hope this is not a shock for you. So you can feed the brow with compound feed, which has everything you need, and whatever the nose turns up, the tasteists will customize it to taste, for example, lard. Moreover, they will make the taste so rich that when you great-grandchildren (I hope not earlier) think about treating them with real lard and get it by hook or by crook, like, that's what I ate in my youth, they are politely so kind of yes delicious, but about itself - sucks, the taste of really crackers with the taste of bacon, only a pale taste.
            It will be so. Don’t be terrified.
        4. Hysnik-Tsuzoy
          Hysnik-Tsuzoy 24 September 2012 20: 18
          Quote: Andrey_K
          half of the population will become unemployed

          The Chinese collective farmers would not care what to eat, but the Russian office kirdyk would come.
      2. Zynaps
        Zynaps 24 September 2012 16: 51
        on the first point. the Chinese are already slowly curbing their offspring. in 100 years, they (possibly) will be 600-800 million, if lovers of fertility among the peasants are introduced into the mind and allowed to taste the delights of civilization.

        as one Chinese comrade told me (quite responsible, by the way) that if someone took and buried 300, or even better, 500 million Chinese in one moment, the country would have sighed and growth would have gone at an unprecedented pace. I asked what was the reason for such bloodthirstiness. he sighed and replied that it was impossible to cultivate these people with all efforts and take them into production - stupidly there weren’t enough capacities and personnel, and they wouldn’t stop eating and breeding. Well, only Mao was smart enough to direct the surplus energy of the masses to smelting cast iron in every village and hunting sparrows on a national scale.
    2. Petrix
      Petrix 24 September 2012 14: 02
      A new and progressive thought is the idea that capitalism is out of date. And whatever it may be, western or eastern, is based on the exploitation of man by man. What is injustice and gives rise to all that rubbish that we observe in the world.
      "Slowdown in economic growth". The question is, is this growth limited by something? Why grow, you can keep it in a stable state. No, capitalism needs growth, new markets. War and capitalism are synonymous words.
  3. Sasha 19871987
    Sasha 19871987 24 September 2012 08: 19
    thanks to the author, interesting figures. yes, the Chinese have jumped very strongly over the past 20 years ... while we and the Americans were playing the Cold War, both overslept the formation of the red dragon
    1. mongoose
      mongoose 24 September 2012 10: 04
      there are no eternal jerks, China has already chosen its reserves of cheap labor and developed markets, then they need to come up with something new that is not easy
      1. Poppy
        Poppy 24 September 2012 14: 38
        by the way, their depopulation of the population is already beginning, it will begin to age
  4. gregor6549
    gregor6549 24 September 2012 08: 21
    The article should probably sound like this "China will destroy Western countries thanks to their technologies, cheap labor and military power, as well as a skillful combination of the communist dictatorship with private business and pragmatism." And at the same time, it will destroy those countries in the east and south. In general, Mao's predictions come true. Of course, the West will do everything to play off China with Russia and then take them with their bare hands, but it is unlikely that China and Russia will allow themselves to be cheated like that. The lessons of 41 are still remembered.
    1. Joker
      Joker 24 September 2012 11: 26
      Quote: gregor6549
      The lessons of 41 of the year are still remembered.

      Right now, no one remembers anything, and if he remembers then he pays no attention, they have already stepped on the same rake more than once, you look at the history of Russia, we never learn from mistakes.
  5. Gromila555
    Gromila555 24 September 2012 08: 26
    Stop waiting for someone to fall apart, rot, fall ... We need to build, develop, research for ourselves, well, you can still have something good to rub with others wink . After such articles, it seems that you can do nothing - the neighbors will fall apart and we ourselves will become the main ones ...
    The smart one learns from the mistakes of others, but if China has a large margin of safety, then it is too early for us to make major miscalculations.
    PS If the article is not a linden, then it seems that NO ONE has a recipe for SUSTAINABLE development without ups and downs ...
    1. bairat
      bairat 24 September 2012 08: 55
      Very correct words, you need to take on your economy. Two years ago I was in Thailand, this is the underbelly of China, I was surprised at the absence of Chinese consumer goods, there is nothing Chinese at all, basically all of our own production. In our pursuit of cheapness, all local industries were killed. Well, and who felt better from this cheapness? People sit out of work.
      1. Petrospek
        Petrospek 24 September 2012 12: 09
        So this is because in Thailand, slave power is even cheaper than in China, competition ..
        1. bairat
          bairat 24 September 2012 21: 26
          Thailand is a relatively rich country, in order to protect local producers, they protected themselves from the Chinese by protective duties. Cambodians walk in jamshuts. They also have a rule: if a company wants to hire a foreign worker, it must first provide one Thais with work.
      2. aksakal
        aksakal 25 September 2012 00: 09
        Quote: bairat
        In our pursuit of cheapness, all local industries were killed. Well, and who felt better from this cheapness? People sit out of work.
        - cheapness from China? Do you want a typical dialogue of a rosiyan who came to the ship tour - he introduced himself as Ivan with a representative of a manufacturing company? I bring:
        Chinese: bought upil! Do not regret it, high quality!
        Ivan: yes, give me your high qui! Do me at such a price!
        Chinese: it’s impossible to even say ills! Only super super hyperbED!
        Ivan: Well, that's normal! Do Super Super Hyper Only at that price! And then ten times I can’t wind up - what kind of business is this?
        Chinese: but you won’t be able to sell this super super hyper Buyer scold, scold!
        Ivan: but this is not your problem. Do the most important thing as I ask!
        Chinese: okay, just do not put my label on the goods!
        Ivan: Yes for God's sake! I need your label!

        This is where the secret of Chinese cheapness and poor quality comes from. Only the Chinese do not need to blame - they know how to do it normally. It’s Ivanov who is so kidding of great love for his compatriots. It's time for them to oxygen, and at the same time shut off the entire gray business
        1. bairat
          bairat 25 September 2012 09: 41
          it is, they take disposable things. we wouldn’t be able to close the border for this garbage already, they have entered the WTO.
  6. Professor
    Professor 24 September 2012 08: 44
    The main problem of the Chinese economy is no longer cheap labor. Lafa is over. Now Vietnam and Bangladesh are in fashion.
    1. leon-iv
      leon-iv 24 September 2012 09: 49
      Not yet, there is still a supply of slave power in rural areas. But there with the level of working seams.
    BARKAS 24 September 2012 09: 36
    If the Chinese take our lesson into account and do not read Western analysts, then everything will be fine with them.
  8. 8 company
    8 company 24 September 2012 09: 52
    The recession among the Chinese, given their rapid development over the years, the phenomenon is quite normal. The main thing is that they know that they must live within their means, unlike the United States and some other countries. That the Chinese are getting richer is also normal, tea, Maoist orders are a thing of the past. And technology cannot destroy anyone, only fools can destroy.
  9. MP
    MP 24 September 2012 10: 09
    Statements about China’s lagging behind the West in the field of high technologies and the further decline of its economy are controversial. Yes, there is growing competition from other Asian states, and this is natural. China follows the same path as post-war Japan and South Korea - from an export-oriented collector country to one of the hegemones of the world economy. Today China produces consumer goods, and tomorrow Laos and Cambodia, the day after tomorrow - Africa. But Chinese capital has already declared itself and, on a par with the West, will go to these countries, creating cheap production there. It is likely that the Middle Kingdom in science will catch up and overtake Western countries, now Chinese scientists are making discoveries everywhere, and we all know about British scientists :)
    1. Petrospek
      Petrospek 24 September 2012 12: 13
      Well, we must not forget that some of the technology (not military) the Americans at one time transferred to Japan, though occasionally. Well, the Chinese have to go all the way with their own heads, and if you have adapted (copied) all your life what was invented before you, then it’s very difficult to do something yourself.
    2. arkady149
      arkady149 25 September 2012 19: 56
      And a vivid example of this is J-20. Who else independently "slapped" the plane of the 5th generation.
  10. Rabic
    Rabic 24 September 2012 10: 15
    China will destroy indefatigable reproduction. laughing
    1. gregor6549
      gregor6549 24 September 2012 10: 20
      It will not destroy him, but the neighbors who are strained with reproduction, and with resources everything is OK. How is the locust? First it eats up its fields, and then it takes on the neighboring ones. And no dust will be enough.
  11. aksakal
    aksakal 24 September 2012 10: 18
    My employee recently traveled to Urumqi for a month. I named the prices - since 2007 they have gone up hoo. Now Urumqi in terms of prices is very close to Almaty, and in terms of salaries, according to a visiting employee, they are not far behind either. If an office clerk in Almaty gets a "trick" somewhere, then in Urumqi - already under seven hundred. The penny consumer paradise is over. So I confirm the assertion of the article that everything in China rises in price - labor force, goods and services, in short, everything - I confirm. Where to go for cheap goods? I think Africa. If in the DPRK Kim Jong-un goes to reforms similar to the Chinese, then for some time it will be possible in the DPRK to buy high-tech items for a penny. The fact is that in China it has already ended.
    There are pluses to this. The potential danger of China to Russia in the arms market will no longer be so dangerous. After all, it was assumed that China would supply weapons by 20 percent worse than the Russian one, and prices would be several times lower, and this was a danger, now everything does not look so dramatic for the Russian military-industrial complex.
    The only way out for China is to raise domestic consumption, for which purpose continue the course on the growth of domestic salaries. This will reduce the interest of foreign investors, but will increase the interest of domestic investors focused on domestic consumers. This is IMHO.
    1. Petrospek
      Petrospek 24 September 2012 12: 16
      I agree with you, but infinity salaries do not work out to raise. So you need to give as many people as possible a denyuzhku, and with such a large population this becomes problematic.
  12. tan0472
    tan0472 24 September 2012 11: 11
    I agree with the author of the article that "expensive labor". If someone explains to eight hundred million poor Chinese that "normal" people do not work the way they do (for a pittance), do not live (in "sheds"), do not eat, in a word, do not live, then China will face such an "explosion "that will" splash "half the world.
  13. anfreezer
    anfreezer 24 September 2012 11: 27
    "The interest of corporations in China is dwindling, both with the development of high technology and the constant rise in the cost of Chinese labor. A modern example is the Taiwanese company Foxconn, which assembles equipment in China for Apple, Sony and Nokia said it plans to install one million robots in its factories in the next three years. Almost one and a half billion unemployed, hungry and evil Chinese ... belay The authorities need to invest not in "Potemkin villages", such as the infrastructure of the APEC summit (preparations for the APEC summit held in early September cost almost 700 billion rubles allocated from the federal and regional budgets, the Accounts Chamber published a report on the financial audit of preparations for the summit in the summer. auditors counted 6,5 billion rubles of incorrectly spent money), and in strengthening the defense in the same place ...
  14. Leisure
    Leisure 24 September 2012 11: 36
    Comrade Magnus, captive of his illusions.
    There are several high-tech areas in which, as Magnus believes, the Chinese will not catch up with the West: 1) life-changing goods (smartphones, tablets); 2) new industrial technologies (breakthrough technologies of the near future - like 3D printers); 3) shale revolution (cheap raw materials that the United States received thanks to the revolution in the extraction of shale gas and oil; chemical and construction companies should benefit from this).

    He thinks that only Europeans have the talent to create something, and Asians are not capable of anything. I want to ask a question, who wins the latest Olympiads in mathematics, physics, etc.?! Life-changing products are just bullshit (LOL). Analyst, latent racist.
    1. TROFka
      TROFka 24 September 2012 12: 21
      It's one thing to win an Olympiad, and another to work and create something. So, if you think about where all these clever men and women go and who is the first to take the cream off of their young intellect. The same!
      1. stariy
        stariy 24 September 2012 20: 19
        Quote: TROFka
        where all these clever and clever women go

        A part of it still remains, and the one that goes by the most part comes back with experience in the West. And the intellectual abilities of the Chinese ... paper, compass porcelain, gunpowder ... also changed the character of Europe and civilization as a whole.
  15. apro
    apro 24 September 2012 12: 40
    Article minus everything is very lightweight, the PRC has greater independence than Russia and greater state power that can solve all the problems of the PRC in the economic field in the interests of the Chinese. The market for market and state planning in the PRC has not been canceled, and the state’s control of the economy is in tough hands. in the form of new technological processes and the availability of cheap labor resources, they are able to shift the economic model of the PRC as an exporter, but the Chinese are also not idle, they can use this to their advantage. In my opinion, the biggest problem of the PRC is energy resources and affecting their pricing and availability to rock the PRC.
    1. ughhh
      ughhh 24 September 2012 13: 14
      China also did not rise itself, huge grandmothers have been actively pouring into it for the last 20-30 years. Who is there and what controls we can only guess.
      1. apro
        apro 24 September 2012 13: 28
        Quote: ughhh
        Who is there and what controls we can only guess.

        No need to guess, you need to know this CCP (Chinese Communist Party)
        1. ughhh
          ughhh 25 September 2012 00: 23
          Quote: apro

          CCP - this is 5-6% of the total population, another one and a half billion are injected per cup of rice, and just a few units sit at the top, which, in principle, boil the porridge.
          To negotiate, if that is necessary with them. Who and how agreed with them, we can only guess, because only rumors and news from the Internet reach us.
  16. Wertynskiy
    Wertynskiy 24 September 2012 13: 11
    Everything is as old as the world "If you want peace (with China), prepare for war."
  17. Suvorov000
    Suvorov000 24 September 2012 13: 38
    There is a lot in the article: "if, perhaps, presumably" The Chinese government is not fools at all, they know their problems better than we do, we cannot figure it out with ours, but we begin to climb into someone else's garden, as Confucius said: "everyone should do their own thing , the cook to cook, the emperor to rule the country "
  18. spirit
    spirit 24 September 2012 17: 09
    no one loves the Chinese !!! but everyone loves their cheap work !!! even the Chinese cheese factory arrives every day 3 Chinese buses !!!! these are the Germans !!!! quality))))))
  19. Enriki
    Enriki 24 September 2012 18: 25
    We need a stable China! comrades, rejoice that the Wise Chinese government is fulfilling its duties, otherwise China would collapse, which would be a catastrophe comparable to the collapse of the USSR! And if no one comes to replace China (China has replaced the USSR), then woe to us.
    1. Su24
      Su24 24 September 2012 21: 32
      China did not come to the place of the USSR, let the large size and power of the party not mislead you.
  20. IRBIS
    IRBIS 24 September 2012 18: 45
    But this should be alarming. The economic downturn and the subsequent crisis may turn China on the path of the most effective "engine" of the economy - to war. America is already "charged", if China is added, then this is not at all great ... It seems to me that the Japanese have a problem .... So far, only the Japanese ...
  21. Su24
    Su24 24 September 2012 21: 31
    These are all the dreams of Western "strategists" about how they will once again rule the world a la the 19th century. The scientific and technological revolution has already taken place (and continues), we are living in its consequences (including the beginning of rapid economic growth in China and other countries), and it will not happen a second time, because the historical moment is unique. You say robots will replace people in production? And what prevents China from starting to implement them? And who, in fact, is the absolute leader in the implementation of robotics in industry - Japan, and not the USA or Europe.
  22. studentmati
    studentmati 24 September 2012 22: 53
    In the 21st century, it is already very difficult to destroy or bring to its knees a country with a half-billion population. In the modern world, China is probably using a new and, in my opinion, very effective tactics, against Russia in the first place, and against other countries too - "the tactics of creeping aggression". Everywhere the Chinese "crawl" into any business, industry, trade, power structures. The hour "X" will come and the fifth column in the whole world will rise and do its job. And who will destroy whom - another question?
  23. Magadan
    Magadan 25 September 2012 01: 03
    Quote: ughhh
    For general erudition: the Chinese consider, in particular, the Russians - barbarians who, in development, are seriously behind the great Chinese civilization

    And that's why "The Dawns Here Are Quiet" is their cult film, and they even shot their own series based on this film? You talk nonsense. The Chinese people watch our movies and listen to our music. The Chinese have a great respect for Russian culture.
    Stop driving horror stories about China. Of course, they are interested in resources and land, but it’s much easier to go to Africa, because production there is easier, and besides, there are still a lot of potential buyers of their consumer goods. So now they climb to Africa. And there a fierce struggle between them and the United States has already flared up.
  24. Nechai
    Nechai 25 September 2012 12: 25
    Quote: crazyrom
    Of all our rivals, this is the most harmless.

    No less dangerous than everyone else. In Central Asia, they remember well what the invasion of the Jurjeni (?) Turned into for them at one time. The forerunner of the present Chinese. And not only for obvious reasons, they are so eager to control Tibet. There is their former ancestral home. And from there, they again dream of building all of Asia for themselves, at least.
    Quote: Zynaps
    there are only few exercises

    While studying, yes. But look HOW they study - in the most extreme natural and climatic period, a sudden rise. March at least 500 km, crossing the river with a depth of 5 meters. And already from these seized bridgeheads, they begin a swift offensive. / in spite of the past "Kavkaz-2012", they trained parts from one to two months, in order to sell this very show /.
    Quote: Hysnik-Tsuzoy
    the rest is a billion collective farmers. These collective farmers are the human resource that China will allow another 100 years to increase production in cities

    What is ONE billion? The PRC leadership itself DOES NOT KNOW HOW MANY there are in the villages illegally born NOT CITIZENS! And with the citizenship of the village in the position of our state workers. The problem is serious. Plus, there is a HUGE "shortage" of women. The Chinese, unlike the Tibetans, will not go for polyandry. I'll give them to them, it's not real. So you will have to dispose of the PDA somehow usefully, anxious little men.
    Quote: studentmati
    with a half billion population (???)

    NOT less than $ 2 billion today.
    Quote: ughhh
    consider, in particular, Russians - barbarians, who in development are seriously behind the great Chinese civilization.

    Nope. Japs consider us barbarians (heijins), and indeed all Europeans. Nowadays, he is tactfully translating the word "heijin" as an alien. And the Chinese people called ALL the pale-faced and are called - LONG-NOSED DEVILS. Although now they are lavishing hospitality. Yes, it should NOT be deceiving. At the end of the 60s, the team went through as from brothers in a moment they became a beast for the Soviet. And for their own the same. DO NOT take the outward, ostentatious appearance of a relationship for truth.
    China has two top priority issues - Taiwan and Japan.
    The Chinese have now retired, renting out housing in cities, the same gostarbytam from the villages, and they themselves go to live in Vietnam. Pensions then consider that no. So they have to spin. And life in Hungary is much cheaper, and quality too.