Military Review

Ukrainian sociologist: If the Russian army wins in Ukraine, NATO will face an unenviable fate

64

Illustrative photo. Exercises of the RF Armed Forces



In Ukraine, they continue to discuss the topic of a possible “start of the offensive of Russian troops” at various levels. At the same time, it is noted in various political and political circles that if NATO (specifically, the United States) does not help Ukraine militarily, this will lead to its defeat. A frequently cited example is Russia's operation to force Georgia into peace, also known as the Five Day War. Ukrainian experts say that there can be only one difference: if in August 2008 the Russian army was stopped by political decisions, preventing it from entering Tbilisi, now “it can be allowed to reach Kiev and change the Ukrainian government to a pro-Russian one.”

All these reflections are taking place against the backdrop of statements by Russian officials that Russia is not going to fight against Ukraine. However, the fear of the Ukrainian elites has such big eyes that the topic is constantly being discussed.

The opinion of a certain part of the power structures is expressed by the head of a major sociological service, Viktor Nebozhenko. According to him, “if the Russian army succeeds in capturing Ukraine, then this will be a loss not only for Ukraine itself, but also for the United States”:

It will also be a defeat for the entire West. In the world, the effect of the defeat of Ukraine and the West in Ukraine will be much stronger than the flight of US troops from Afghanistan.

According to a Ukrainian sociologist, “if the Russian army wins in Ukraine, it will become clear to the whole world that the United States has failed to defend the country.” Nebozhenko, seeking to exert some pressure on American representatives, adds that then "the world will ask the question: if the United States could not protect Ukraine, how are they going to protect Europe and Taiwan? .."

According to Viktor Nebozhenko, NATO "in the event of the victory of Russian troops in Ukraine" will face an unenviable fate - this organization will at best remain only a formal "organization of generals who are not able to defend Europe." There will be no real consolidation of the forces of the alliance on any of the serious security issues, separate armies will remain separate.

At the same time, the director of the Ukrainian sociological service believes that only Germany can win in this regard, and all the countries of Eastern Europe will lose.

Against such a background, telephone conversations between Biden and Zelensky are being discussed in Ukraine. It is noted that they can hardly be called constructive. First of all, the reason for this outcome is Biden's refusal to give Kiev guarantees of joining the North Atlantic Alliance. Apparently, Kiev continues to believe that NATO will win if Ukraine is admitted to the alliance, constantly declaring that it is at war with the Russian Federation.
Photos used:
VKontakte / Ministry of Defense of Russia
64 comments
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  1. 210ox
    210ox 28 January 2022 07: 23
    0
    Everyone, let's go. It is said that there is not even a war in my thoughts. And all again .. If, yes, if only
    1. Carat
      Carat 28 January 2022 07: 32
      +5
      We may not. But the United States is not against arranging a war game on foreign territory. After all, for the US it is a profit.
      1. 210ox
        210ox 28 January 2022 07: 36
        -1
        Either way, they will make a profit. And having resisted the slaughter, you can lose everything that you have. Tell me, why do they need another shame after Afghanistan?
        1. Carat
          Carat 28 January 2022 07: 45
          +4
          Quote: 210ox
          Either way, they will make a profit. And having resisted the slaughter, you can lose everything that you have. Tell me, why do they need another shame after Afghanistan?


          Afghanistan and Ukraine are slightly different situations. More precisely, they are completely different.
          Not a single NATO country was going to defend Ukraine from the very beginning. There is nothing but politics. Well, yes, there are instructors from NATO countries, but this is another drain of money from Ukraine. So the shame of Afghanistan in Ukraine does not shine under any circumstances.
          There will be no massacre, a maximum of provocation, so that Russia can be bent over with the next sanctions.
          But this is my personal opinion and it may differ from yours.
          1. 210ox
            210ox 28 January 2022 07: 57
            +2
            My opinion is similar to yours. Just a slightly different approach.
          2. Vladimir Mashkov
            Vladimir Mashkov 28 January 2022 21: 36
            0
            Quote: Carat
            ... provocations in order to try to bend Russia with the next sanctions.

            Exactly! That's why they are pushing Zelya now. As for Russia, then, of course, Russia will neither fight against Ukraine, nor, it seems, attack on her is not going to. But I guess protect LDNR during the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / Bandera, it will be. smile
      2. Seryoga64
        Seryoga64 28 January 2022 08: 28
        -2
        Quote: Carat
        . But the United States is not against arranging a war game on foreign territory.

        That's why they pump up the outskirts with weapons
        1. Carat
          Carat 28 January 2022 08: 43
          +2
          Quote: Seryoga64
          That's why they pump up the outskirts with weapons


          Well, they don't pump it up for free.
          Ukraine has already been pumped up with weapons since the days of the USSR. It's just that the West is doing business on all sorts of Javelins. The sale of weapons has always brought good profits.
          1. Seryoga64
            Seryoga64 28 January 2022 08: 47
            -2
            Quote: Carat
            Well, they don't pump it up for free.

            So this is in your words
            After all, for the US it is a profit.

            Ukraine has already been pumped up with weapons since the days of the USSR.

            Almost all sold out
            They even buy shells from the Czechs
            1. Carat
              Carat 28 January 2022 08: 55
              +2
              Quote: Seryoga64
              Almost all sold out
              They even buy shells from the Czechs


              Not everyone. And the purchase of 4 thousand 152-mm shells from the Czechs is a political step, designed to convince the population that "The whole world is with them."
              1. Seryoga64
                Seryoga64 28 January 2022 08: 59
                -3
                Quote: Carat
                this is a political move

                Yes, this is not a political move. They never learned to make their own.
                He did not make one tank, not one aircraft. They couldn't do anything at all.
                And for more than 30 years, a lot just rotted
                1. Carat
                  Carat 28 January 2022 09: 04
                  0
                  Quote: Seryoga64
                  Yes, this is not a political move. They never learned to make their own.
                  He did not make one tank, not one aircraft. They couldn't do anything at all.
                  And for more than 30 years, a lot just rotted


                  In the Debaltsevo cauldron, even according to Poroshenko's modest (clearly underestimated) opinion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 60 percent of their equipment. Where did it come from again?
                  Yes, and can you imagine that a tank that is in storage, even if it is 4-5 categories, could rot in 30 years? It's not a Zhiguli.
                  1. Seryoga64
                    Seryoga64 28 January 2022 09: 09
                    -3
                    Quote: Carat
                    APU lost more than 60 percent of equipment. Where did it come from again?

                    So I'm not saying that they have absolutely nothing. There is. But older than ancient. Only in Africa they fight with such weapons
                    Yes, and can you imagine that a tank that is in storage, even if it is 4-5 categories, could rot in 30 years?

                    The tank can't. But the planes kirdyk comes
                    Yes, and there are not so many tanks left.
                    1. Carat
                      Carat 28 January 2022 09: 21
                      -1
                      Quote: Seryoga64
                      So I'm not saying that they have absolutely nothing. There is. But older than ancient. Only in Africa they fight with such weapons


                      Well, the LDNR is not fighting in the Armata, they are also sitting on Soviet weapons.

                      Quote: Seryoga64
                      The tank can't. But the planes kirdyk comes
                      Yes, and there are not so many tanks left.


                      Aircraft already have a limit on operation.
                      And there are plenty of tanks in storage. From 3-4 one can be assembled (which is what they do).

                      Here is a photo of storage at the Kharkov Armored Repair Plant:
                      1. Seryoga64
                        Seryoga64 28 January 2022 09: 27
                        -3
                        Quote: Carat
                        Well, the LDNR is not fighting in the Armata, they are also sitting on Soviet weapons.

                        So we are not talking about LDNR
                        We are talking about the number of weapons in the outskirts
                        And there are plenty of tanks in storage. From 3-4 one can be assembled (which is what they do).

                        So divide these storages by 6. Will there be much left?
                      2. Carat
                        Carat 28 January 2022 09: 44
                        0
                        Quote: Seryoga64
                        We are talking about the number of weapons in the outskirts


                        It's useless for us to argue here. Not me, not you, you don’t even have approximate information about the actual amount of equipment at storage sites and ammunition at warehouses in the outskirts.
    2. marchcat
      marchcat 28 January 2022 07: 35
      +3
      -The US failed to protect Ukraine, how are they going to protect Europe and Taiwan? The USA has only business and nothing personal ...
      1. Carat
        Carat 28 January 2022 07: 48
        +2
        Quote: marchcat
        The USA has only business and nothing personal ...


        I agree. Americans are a nation of hucksters. Behind their every action is always their profit.
        1. Aerodrome
          Aerodrome 28 January 2022 08: 16
          0
          Ukrainian sociologist: If the Russian army wins
          are there options?
          1. Carat
            Carat 28 January 2022 08: 30
            +1
            Quote: Aerodrome
            Ukrainian sociologist: If the Russian army wins
            are there options?


            There is. Russia will not come to war. And he has been working for 8 years.
    3. Seryoga64
      Seryoga64 28 January 2022 08: 27
      -6
      Quote: 210ox
      And all again.

      Note
      . A frequently cited example is the Russian operation to force Georgia into peace, also known as the Five Day War.

      They need revenge
      1. 210ox
        210ox 28 January 2022 09: 36
        0
        They need revenge inside Russia. Take everything back to the 90s
    4. Sasha from Uralmash
      Sasha from Uralmash 29 January 2022 20: 36
      0
      Will there be a war? Or not? That's the question?! The problem is who will become ErzgeYtseg Ferdinand!?
  2. alone
    alone 28 January 2022 07: 25
    0
    The NATO Charter prohibits admission to membership of a country that has a conflict situation on its territory .. Both Ukraine and Georgia have territorial problems .. So Biden in this case cannot be a guarantor.
    To become a full member of NATO, all countries included in the alliance must be For .. So, Biden, although an old senile, still has sparks of reason in his head hi
    1. 210ox
      210ox 28 January 2022 07: 31
      +1
      Charter. Okay. Estonia has territorial claims on Russia. AND? We don’t even remember about Turkey and Greece. This statute is like a drawbar.
      1. Carat
        Carat 28 January 2022 07: 52
        +2
        Quote: 210ox
        This statute is like a drawbar.


        Right.
        Even Article 5 is not taken seriously by the Americans. According to the principle: if we want to fight for another NATO country, if we don't want to.
      2. alone
        alone 28 January 2022 07: 55
        0
        Quote: 210ox
        We don’t even remember about Turkey and Greece.

        But they are not officially at war with each other ..
        Quote: 210ox
        Estonia has territorial claims on Russia.

        Demanding one thing, but having a conflict zone on the territory is another .. You can demand anything. Who reacts to this empty chatter?
        1. 210ox
          210ox 28 January 2022 08: 19
          0
          Turks and Greeks fought in Cyprus. Peacekeeping units were even brought in there. And so, yes. Cyprus is a sovereign state.
          1. alone
            alone 28 January 2022 08: 36
            0
            Quote: 210ox
            Turks and Greeks fought in Cyprus.

            Right..
            Quote: 210ox
            And so, yes. Cyprus is a sovereign state.

            Well, Cyprus is not Greece. By the way, this is why Cyprus is not in the alliance .. Turkey will not allow it, even if there would be no conflict
    2. Alexander 3
      Alexander 3 28 January 2022 07: 34
      +1
      If the United States does not help the Banderlogs in the civil war with Russian speakers and those who do not recognize the power of Bandera, then, according to Nebozhenko, NATO will lose its face. Nebozhenko's surname corresponds to the topic of conversation.
    3. Carat
      Carat 28 January 2022 07: 36
      +2
      Quote: lonely
      The NATO Charter prohibits admission to membership of a country that has a conflict situation on its territory .. Both Ukraine and Georgia have territorial problems ..


      If you look closely, many NATO countries have had and still have territorial claims and nothing, they took it.
      1. alone
        alone 28 January 2022 08: 01
        0
        Quote: Carat
        NATO had and have territorial claims

        That's right .. they have claims, but they don’t have a military conflict on their territory in connection with this .. But in Ukraine there is a conflict. The West does not want to fight for someone, or rather, take on the solution of such conflicts .. No one there is reluctant to fight for someone
        1. Carat
          Carat 28 January 2022 08: 05
          0
          So the NATO charter spells out a ban on receiving with territorial claims. The conflict was not even mentioned.
          1. alone
            alone 28 January 2022 08: 15
            0
            Quote: Carat
            So the NATO charter spells out a ban on receiving with territorial claims. The conflict was not even mentioned.

            Officially, at the state level, everyone recognizes the borders. .You can show at least one document of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where it is required from the Russian Federation to return something to them .. And the fact that some politicians or parties are chatting is not considered an official position .. Here, Volfovich bombs every day on TV, then another captures ..So what? So this is the official position of the Russian Federation?
            1. Carat
              Carat 28 January 2022 08: 27
              +1
              Quote: lonely
              Here, Volfovich every day on TV bombs there, then captures something else .. So what? So this is the official position of the Russian Federation?


              This means that Volfych is the same balabol as Western politicians. winked
              1. alone
                alone 28 January 2022 08: 40
                +1
                Quote: Carat
                This means that Volfych is the same balabol as Western politicians.

                Man, politicians are like a lady with low social responsibility. .for money in the morning he will say one thing, during the day he will deny what he said in the morning, and in the evening he will deny what was during the day .. Where have you seen honest politicians? Now even presidents who are responsible for their words and obligations - a couple of people all over the world .other bullshit
                1. Carat
                  Carat 28 January 2022 08: 45
                  0
                  So I tell you about the same, only more briefly.
  3. Nyrobsky
    Nyrobsky 28 January 2022 07: 32
    0
    Everything is just the opposite. Draining Ukraine will help mattresses increase their contingent in Europe under the pretext of protecting it, but speaking on the side of Ukraine, or accepting it as part of the bloc, can just lead to the defeat of the NATO bloc itself, and ahead of schedule, because having sensed the shadow of the bloc behind their backs, the insane ukrovoyaks unleash a war with Russia and drag all of Europe into it.
    1. Carat
      Carat 28 January 2022 07: 56
      0
      Quote: Nyrobsky
      insane ukrovoyaks will unleash a war with Russia and drag the whole of Europe into it.


      Europe will not be drawn in. This is dangerous for the US. They don't need a probable nuclear conflict.
      1. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 28 January 2022 08: 10
        0
        Quote: Carat
        Quote: Nyrobsky
        insane ukrovoyaks will unleash a war with Russia and drag the whole of Europe into it.


        Europe will not be drawn in. This is dangerous for the US. They don’t need a probable nuclear conflict.
        Therefore, I say that it is more profitable for mattresses to merge Ukraine through a war and increase their influence on Europe through an increase in their military contingent.
        1. Carat
          Carat 28 January 2022 08: 22
          0
          Quote: Nyrobsky
          Therefore, I say that it is more profitable for mattresses to merge Ukraine through a war and increase their influence on Europe through an increase in their military contingent.


          But a maximum war between Russia and Ukraine. Without the participation of NATO countries in hostilities. Otherwise, paragraph 5 of the NATO treaty will come into force and the war will come to the United States.
          1. Nyrobsky
            Nyrobsky 28 January 2022 08: 25
            0
            Quote: Carat
            But a maximum war between Russia and Ukraine. Without the participation of NATO countries in hostilities.

            About that and speech. yes
    2. Ros 56
      Ros 56 28 January 2022 08: 00
      +1
      Do you think gay people are tired of living? Scratch your tongue, do not carry bags. No, well, perhaps only the brave Poles and Tribalts, while the rest are still using their brains.
      1. Carat
        Carat 28 January 2022 08: 25
        0
        Quote: Ros 56
        Do you think gay people are tired of living? Scratch your tongue, do not carry bags. No, well, except for the brave Poles and Tribalts, while others use their brains.


        Poles and Tribalts are also only in words, but in reality, zilch.
  4. Ros 56
    Ros 56 28 January 2022 07: 57
    0
    Does the Ukrainian psychologist have doubts about this? As soon as the first pair of Russian reconnaissance aircraft crosses the border, such a migration of Banderlogs to the West will begin there, as in American disaster films.
  5. akarfoxhound
    akarfoxhound 28 January 2022 07: 58
    +1
    VO, are you broadcasting the "opinion" of this "expert" on koilyad ??? winked
  6. Viktor Sergeev
    Viktor Sergeev 28 January 2022 07: 59
    +3
    Well, how they want a war in Ukraine, right up to diarrhea.
  7. yuriy55
    yuriy55 28 January 2022 08: 01
    0
    Ukrainian sociologist: If the Russian army wins in Ukraine, NATO faces an unenviable fate

    If? laughing lol
    And if Ukraine wins. then everyone will envy NATO? wassat
    ==========
    The message is this: take care and help us, otherwise we will lose in any case ... fool
  8. Andrei Nikolaevich
    Andrei Nikolaevich 28 January 2022 08: 20
    0
    Whatever happens, we do not need Ukraine and the war with it. Let the EU feed and support them. Even if they put them on a starvation ration... These are their problems.. How they rode, so let them survive. Nothing personal.
    1. aszzz888
      aszzz888 28 January 2022 08: 52
      +1

      Andrey Nikolaevich (From the USSR)
      Today, 08: 20
      NEW
      0
      Whatever happens, we do not need Ukraine and the war with it. Let the EU feed and support them. Even if they put them on a starvation ration... These are their problems.. How they rode, so let them survive. Nothing personal.
      So yes. Russia will not economically pull its devastation. At least it will be beyond the colossal costs.
  9. APASUS
    APASUS 28 January 2022 08: 34
    +1
    The Ukrainian sociologist is stuck for about 10 years. The world already sees not only the escape from Afghanistan, but also Iraq, Syria, where the United States steals oil for thugs. Poland, Romania, Bulgaria.
  10. Baloo
    Baloo 28 January 2022 08: 42
    0
    Another genius from psychiatric dispensary 404 will not understand in any way - it's time to save Ukraine and Europe from NATO and the USA. All US rulers, starting with Wilson, are closely tied to the interests of the military-industrial complex. They need wars, war games, regional conflicts, coups to sell their weapons. How is Ukraine going to join NATO with such debts and a regional conflict within itself? To join NATO, it will have to get rid of the Soviet and its own weapons and re-equip the Armed Forces according to NATO standards. Where does the money come from? Again in debt, but who will give them. So you have to give land, resources. This is how the rulers of Ukraine are pushing Ukraine towards self-liquidation, loss of sovereignty, to the transfer of power from an elected government to the power of transnational companies. Curtain!
  11. cniza
    cniza 28 January 2022 08: 43
    +3
    what then "the world will ask the question: if the United States could not protect Ukraine, how are they going to protect Europe and Taiwan? .."


    And who said that they are going to protect them? they rob and run away...
  12. aszzz888
    aszzz888 28 January 2022 08: 48
    +1
    Ukrainian sociologist: If the Russian army wins in Ukraine, ..
    Does he still have doubts? laughing
  13. Timur_3
    Timur_3 28 January 2022 09: 02
    -1
    What does "if he wins" mean?
    Win 100%.
  14. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 28 January 2022 09: 20
    +1
    It will also be a defeat for the entire West. In the world, the effect of the defeat of Ukraine and the West in Ukraine will be much stronger than the flight of US troops from Afghanistan.
    You can interpret it this way - if I freeze my ears due to my stupidity and capriciousness, then my grandmother will (must) suffer greatly. They believe that now they will scare the United States with the loss of part of their political image, and the Americans will immediately fulfill all Ukrainian demands, not even requests. And all because they live in a virtual world created by themselves and think that this is reality.
  15. The comment was deleted.
  16. Yuri Siritsky_2
    Yuri Siritsky_2 28 January 2022 12: 15
    0
    How khokhliks want someone to shed blood for them.
  17. Bshkaus
    Bshkaus 28 January 2022 12: 37
    -1
    In general, world history shows that wars generally end completely differently than planned.
    Now the situation is extremely difficult. the subject of disagreement in the fundamental worldview. The trouble is that Ukraine, with all its desire, will not be able to recapture the Donbass, because the Russian Federation is hitting in the teeth. But the Russian Federation will not be able to recapture Ukraine either. in this case, she will already get in the teeth from the collective West and NATO. no, of course, couch experts are always ready to launch Poplar, but let's be honest: neither in the economic sense, nor in terms of human resources in a conventional war of the Russian Federation against NATO, there is no chance, and Belarus and Armenia will not help here, but waving nuclear weapons in every case, too to put it mildly inappropriate. NATE doesn’t even need to fight directly with us
    1. Osipov9391
      Osipov9391 29 January 2022 02: 23
      +2
      In Russia, now they don’t even take into account the nuclear submarines (there are 8 of them) of France and England that are deployed in the Mediterranean / Norwegian Seas and that are capable of delivering up to 600 nuclear warheads to Russian territory with almost a hundred SLBMs.
      Is it correct to ignore?
      Now, if the war in Ukraine really breaks out with all its might between Russia and NATO, then what can 280 Ground Forces be able to do if they are completely withdrawn from the East and South of the country to one Ukrainian direction?
      Almost a billion people live in European countries, therefore, within a month or two, I think they will be able to mobilize about 25-30 million soldiers + PMCs + assistance from overseas to the Eastern flank. Well, let Russia and Belarus mobilize 5 million.
      It turns out that the ratio in terms of manpower is 6-7 times not in our favor, and this is the minimum.

      Of course, there will be an option to bang nuclear weapons against the accumulation of NATO troops if they can’t cope with conventional forces, but again it’s worth recalling the French and British strategic submarines.
      Will they not then launch a limited salvo at Russia in response to its use of nuclear weapons against Europe?
      And the loss of even 15 million people would be fatal for Russia. We already have only 70 million left of those who can work and fight.
      1. AC130 Gunship
        AC130 Gunship 29 January 2022 22: 19
        0
        Where did you get 70 million? According to statistics, somewhere around 35-40 only work there
  18. 7 poplar
    7 poplar 28 January 2022 15: 03
    0
    let them not hope that a freebie under the guise of amers will work.
  19. Simon
    Simon 29 January 2022 14: 00
    0
    At the same time, the director of the Ukrainian sociological service believes that only Germany can win in this regard, and all the countries of Eastern Europe will lose.

    Nah! The director of social services is wrong. services of Ukraine. Not only Germany will win, but also those NATO countries that do not get involved in these showdowns, for example Hungary, and the rest will definitely lose, especially such aggressive satellites as Poland, which is aggressively acting the most. Most importantly, the United States and England in this case will remain on the sidelines.
  20. Living7111972
    Living7111972 29 January 2022 19: 54
    0
    I don’t know, in my opinion, the most obvious and most beneficial, historically and mercantilely, is the union of Germany and Russia. Long term and it will be strong in our world.
    But doubtful
  21. AC130 Gunship
    AC130 Gunship 29 January 2022 22: 17
    0
    What kind of nonsense? And who said, and most importantly, why would the Americans have to defend Ukraine? There, on the map for the Russian Federation, it costs much more than some kind of Kiev. If Europe decides to cut off SWIFT in Russia, then it will become like Iran or North Korea. Putin definitely does not need this ...