The current state of international politics and the military sphere remains quite complex. Countries, on the one hand, are ready to talk about problems, but, on the other hand, do not intend to sacrifice any of their interests.
The crisis of relations is more and more reminiscent of the pre-war years of the last century.
Sometimes one gets the feeling that there are two camps of completely different politicians and officials on both sides.
Some advocate a simple solution to the problem. It is necessary to start a small and victorious war, during which the enemy will be defeated, and all differences will be resolved automatically.
Others, on the contrary, call for a conversation and a sober attitude to the situation. There will be no small war. There will be another world "meat grinder".
Moreover, the strangest thing is that civilian politicians and high-ranking military men, who occupy serious positions in the armies of different states, “swapped places”. Listening to the speeches of politicians and diplomats, a person understands that war is inevitable. In the speeches of high-ranking military men, there are more peaceful notes. Need to talk!
Personally, I understand this approach.
It is quite a common situation when the most ardent supporters of the war are those who will not go to this war.
It is enough to look at the president of a neighboring state, who has already forgotten the word peace when it comes to Donbass or Russia, while successfully avoiding conscription, not to mention a trip to “defend Nenka” to eastern Ukraine.
The military, especially those occupying high positions, are well aware of what war is, what weapons the opposing side has, and what results will be in a real clash of armies. It is not for nothing that only American generals command NATO troops. The backbone and main military force of the alliance was and remains American.
Why are the military more realistic?
Indeed, in my opinion, the military assesses everything that is happening around much more realistically than politicians. And this applies to all the military, from an ordinary soldier to the Minister of Defense of the country.
And the point here is not education, knowledge of some military and state secrets, or something else. It's a matter of approach.
The army of any country has a very specific task. She looks very specific. Maintaining the security of the country, ensuring the inviolability of borders and preventing a world war. Exactly the same specific tasks are facing the power structures. Hence much more precise definitions in statements, more specific conclusions from the situation.
For politicians, such forms of communication with people are uncharacteristic. Politicians pay much more attention to ideology, propaganda of their own views, loud statements that arouse interest in their personality.
You don’t have to look far for examples: turn on the TV, and everything will become clear and understandable.
I would say even more, modern politicians are overwhelmingly prone to speculative rhetoric. They say what people want to hear and quickly forget their own promises. This gives rise to such a variety of visions of the world. People believe populists, although they understand that some of the theses in their speeches are obvious lies.
Look at what is happening in the American and some European politicians.
The President, Prime Minister or Chancellor makes a statement. Everything seems to be clear. Analysts "suck" every word of the head of state, experts suggest further developments, but ...
A few hours later, some other high-ranking official comes forward and says the complete opposite. And a few hours later, the third official says something third. And all three are included in the clip of the highest leaders of the state ...
This is especially noticeable today. The same president of a neighboring state on the same day, speaking to different audiences, issues completely opposite theses.
For their own people - these ideas are such that they do not anger the right. For the West, this is a panic from the eight-year “future attack” of the Russians. For Europe, it is a bulwark of the defense of European democracy. For Russia, this is a president who longs for peace in Ukraine.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken acts in the same capacity. One speaks in Moscow, the other speaks in Brussels, the third speaks in Washington, the fourth speaks in Kiev.
Top officials today do not bear responsibility for their words. It can always be said that, despite the fact that Blinken occupies the highest position in the US diplomatic department, in this case he simply expresses his opinion on some issue.
But sometimes high-ranking military men can turn an entire country upside down with a few phrases. It is from the head - simply because one state adjacent to Russia has been standing like that for a long time.
And what the military said openly is just the truth.
The admiral who didn't want to play politics
I am referring to Vice Admiral Kai-Achim Schönbach, former Commander of the German Naval Forces.
Yes, simply because the admiral did not begin to sing along with politicians and clearly expressed the position of a military man on the situation with Ukraine.
In particular, Schönbach clearly stated that Crimea would never return to Ukraine.
So what is next:
“I have asked Secretary of Defense Christine Lambrecht to immediately release me from my post. The minister granted my request."
Everything happened in one day.
During a visit to India, January 21, 2022 at the Institute of Defense Research and Analysis. Admiral Manohara Parrikara spoke in the sense that India and Germany really need Russia to confront China. In his speech, Schoenbach just mentioned that Crimea is lost for Ukraine forever.
But the admiral's worst sin is that he allowed himself to be called "nonsense" the widely propagated assertion about the possibility of a military invasion of Ukraine. And he outlined the main goal of President Putin not to conquer the world and the entire Universe, but only to demand that Moscow be treated as an equal partner.
The resignation letter was signed on January 22.
Kiev's reaction to this statement is interesting.
Here is what Oleg Nikolenko, official representative of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, said about Crimea:
“The Crimean peninsula can only be lost in the imagination of a German Vice Admiral. Crimea will certainly return thanks to the persistent efforts of Ukraine and its partners, who will show determination in countering the aggressor state. In this regard, we demand an explanation from the German government as to how the words of the commander of the Navy correlate with Germany's consistent support for the Crimean Platform.
But Schönbach's statement was widely circulated.
And the admiral was forced to declare that this was his personal opinion, and not the official position of the German Ministry of Defense. This was caused, among other things, by the cries that were heard from Kiev.
However, if we take a closer look at Germany's position on certain issues, for example, on the supply of weapons, there is doubt about the sincerity of the German Defense Ministry.
Germany does not lift the embargo on the supply of weapons to Ukraine. German Defense Minister Lambrecht said that, despite Germany's support for Ukraine, to supply weapon Kiev will not have Berlin. Instead, as part of the support, the Bundeswehr will transfer a field hospital to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Yesterday Kuleba even threatened to remember this fact for a long time:
“Germany's refusal (...) disappoints the Ukrainian public. Unfortunately, Ukrainians will remember this for decades to come, and this is very sad for me as a foreign minister.”
Ukraine demands weapons from Germany
Yes, that's right, Kiev requires the supply of weapons from Berlin.
Here is a statement on this matter by Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Kuleba.
“Recent German statements about the impossibility of transferring defensive weapons to Ukraine, in particular through granting permission to third parties, the futility of returning Crimea, the hesitation to disconnect the Russian Federation from SWIFT do not correspond to the level of our relations and the current security situation.”
It is quite understandable that Admiral Schönbach's statement sounded like a bolt from the blue for Kiev.
The Americans, the British, even the Estonians, like some other NATO countries, are pumping weapons into Ukraine to the fullest. The same FGM-148 Javelin ATGMs are already being openly shown in the Donbass. And the British complexes were immediately brought there.
Although, from my point of view, these benefactors are simply using the raised dregs to sell what should be disposed of in months. Simply put, they not only save on disposal, but also make a profit.
The Germans, despite their own statements earlier, unexpectedly for Kiev, abandoned the confrontation with Moscow, refused to supply weapons.
German Foreign Ministry Annalena Burbock explicitly stated that Germany would no longer risk herself, especially with Russia:
“The position of the German government on the supply of arms, given our restrictive arms export policy, is known, and this is also due to our history».
It is impossible to pass by another odious person who is related to the resignation of Vice Admiral Schönbach.
This is the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk. "Always begging for something." It was he, the ambassador, and not the minister of foreign affairs or the president, who first spoke about the resignation of the admiral.
At the beginning of his commentary to the newspaper Die Welt, Melnik writes that he welcomes the decision of the German Defense Ministry. And then he blasts the German Foreign Ministry for what happened in India. In his opinion, the statement of the German commander fleet "seriously calls into question the credibility of Germany at the international level."
And the Germans are silent ...
They are silent, perhaps because of the inexperience of the new government and Annilena Burbock personally. Or because the German government was "pressed" by Washington.
But, most likely, the German government was reminded of the role that Berlin should play in the Crimean Platform. Let me remind you that according to Ukraine's statements, it is Germany that will head one of the five areas of work. Namely, the "policy of non-recognition."
Is this a possible split in NATO or is the admiral's "soldier directness" just a pose?
So what happened in Germany?
Is the rather bold statement of the German admiral connected with a change in the vector of Germany's foreign policy?
These questions remain unanswered so far.
The fact that things are heading towards a real clash and Kiev will act as a provocateur is very likely.
How likely is it that in response to the offensive in the Donbass, Russian troops will not go to the territory of Ukraine. It will be enough to strike the Aerospace Forces at military infrastructure facilities and places of deployment of equipment and weapons. Republicans will liberate the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
Germany is well aware that in the end, if a decision is made to help Kiev, it will be the Germans who will have to fight. The rest of the NATO armies in Europe are not intended for war.
British? Any Poles or Balts?
Besides the Germans, only the Turks can take risks, but Erdogan is far from being a fool and understands what will happen to the army in the event of a conflict.
The government understands that such participation of Bundeswehr soldiers in the events in Ukraine will mean the end not only of the government, but of the parties whose members are in this government. The people of Germany remember very well how the previous campaign to the East ended.
I think that the new German government turned out to be much stronger than expected.
And Admiral Schönbach's statement is not at all accidental. He simply voiced what is being said on the sidelines in Berlin. And I would not be at all surprised if after some time we hear this surname in connection with some fairly significant appointment. The 55-year-old admiral is still young enough for a politician ...
The split of the alliance was marked.
For those who are already proudly talking about the nobility and honor of German officers.
The dismissal of senior officers in the German army occurs under several articles. Honorary dismissal is considered to be at the end of the term of service. Moreover, the honor is expressed in fairly serious cash payments and other benefits. Including later career. It seems to me that Vice Admiral Schönbach was offered a choice. He made it...