Russia in the XNUMXst century: strategy and means for a breakthrough
Finally, we have reached the fourth (read parts 1, 2 и 3) articles of the cycle - it's time to talk about how we can achieve the parameters indicated in the previous article and, in general, reach the level of states worthy of being called superpowers.
This will be the most difficult article in the cycle, since when the author was dealing with an array of numbers - everything was clear and peremptory, when the question of the parameters we needed was raised - everything, in principle, was also more or less obvious.
Few will argue that such a huge country needs a decent demographic. Few will object that our spending on science is out of the question. And that GDP is still desirable to have more.
This article is difficult because the author takes on a potentially overwhelming task: to form the image of a successful state on the platform of the modern Russian Federation, and he is well aware that some details will be missed, that lovers of the hammer and sickle are unlikely to be satisfied with his attempts, as, in fact, and admirers of liberal democracy.
But I see my task not in closing the issue and not in pleasing philosophizing aesthetes from different camps - my task is to outline an incredibly relevant discussion about how we should continue to live and develop so as not to oversleep our future.
So everything that follows is only my personal opinion, and if you have something to add to it, it is always open to ideas and constructive discussions.
Any model is based on pillars - the pillars of this model are the state's recognition of a simple thing: our country and its people deserve wealth and space for self-realization.
There is no super-goal higher than this, there are no projects until this task is sufficiently realized. A sufficient measure is indicated in the last article.
Before these parameters, we are not interested in global politics, unless it brings us a good and predictable income.
The Russian Federation has no enemies - there are states with which the Russian Federation conducts and develops business, and countries with which the Russian Federation conducts exclusively limited activities, within the borders, first of all, beneficial to the Russian Federation.
We have a vast territory at our disposal, the entire periodic table, gigantic energy, water, crop, fish and other resources. Beyond this, we do not need any territories, our key task, in addition to increasing the internal well-being, wealth and industrial and scientific power of the state, is to populate and ennoble these territories.
The work here is not for one hundred years - so that the surrounding states are of interest to the Russian Federation, first of all, as sources of investment, technology, "suppliers of brains" and the market for mutual trade. At some stage, of course, it will be necessary to use both foreign labor and construction competencies.
In this model, I see the state, in addition to performing its traditional functions, as a powerful advisory and prognostic tool, acting for the benefit of its residents and its business.
Since the planned economy as a whole does not appeal to me, but I recognize its certain advantages, the task of the state is to form some kind of reasonable and carefully thought-out plan, which will be familiar to society and business.
All the necessary statistical information will be painstakingly collected by the state, analyzed, forecasted and offered to its own citizens and companies: those who are interested in being part of this project activity will be given preferences, those who are not interested will not be hindered.
I see the need for a long stage of the development of the state to build predominantly market, capitalist relations - however, with the growth of prosperity, according to the plan, the social burden on business and the state will increase, with effective development in such capitalism, the percentage of what many associate with elements of socialism will increase .
Our challenge is to grow at least 50 million people over a period of 40 years.
In 2020, 1,4 million children were born in the Russian Federation, suppose that we managed to equalize the figure of loss and profit at this value - and this is a conditional zero (although, of course, this is far from the case).
That is, in order to increase 40 million people in 40 years, we will need 2,5 million births per year: a million more than now.
Considering that we will not be able to reach this rate abruptly, and that we need to increase not 40 million people, but all 50, then at a certain stage we need to reach the figure of 3 million births per year, that is, in fact, double population growth.
We will have to attract the remaining 20 million people to the country from neighboring territories. This point will be indicated below.
This is not an easy task, but it is doable.
To do this, the state needs to thoroughly strain on the fronts that have practically nothing to do with demography.
This task, since it is key, in general, should be divided into several parts:
1. It is necessary to significantly improve the climate of the public information space. This will be discussed in the Information Policy section.
2. Fertility can be stimulated by increasing benefits for women on maternity leave, young fathers, economically supporting young families - here I see the main nuance, in addition to the sum of important little things, the issue of capital support for young families with housing.
The presence of such support, in addition to stimulating the birth rate, contributes to the expansion of the settlement of people in the regions. For example, the state will build housing for young families and lease it to them for life for 5 rubles a month, with the possibility of further redemption of this housing at low-interest mortgage rates (more on that below).
3. It is possible to stimulate the birth rate through the creation of a closed account for each child born, to which some amount of state revenues will be deducted every month until the age of 20, in the expectation that by adulthood he will repay from 1/3 to 1/2 of the cost of housing from these money. The funds in this account can be used for loans, housing or commercial development while the child is growing.
More about this below - in the section "Social and Economic Development Fund".
Points 2 and 3 at the initial stages of the formation of the system impose a certain burden on the budget and the working population - in the future, these expenses are compensated mainly by economic growth, nominal budget figures and foreign trade turnover.
4. The state increases the funds allocated for medical support of pregnant women or women who are about to become pregnant. Not God knows what means, in fact.
5. The state guarantees the inviolability of this social line in the future.
Of course, at the instrumental level, the state should gently direct the resettlement of people from overpopulated megacities to the Far East, including young families.
This attraction can be expressed in the fact that, within the overall plan, special attention should be paid to the Far East in interaction with business and the idea of organizing large enterprises, places are carefully selected taking into account a combination of convenient location, comfort for living and industry-business interests.
At the first stage (10-20 years from the start), it is enough to ensure the influx of about 10 million inhabitants into the region, in every possible way contributing to their development.
In the future, these people will contribute, together with state support, to a deeper study of the formation of an environment for million-plus cities and the capital settlement of the region.
For the foreseeable future, foreign policy should correspond to three points.
At first, it should contribute to the rate of welfare growth we have chosen.
Politics for the sake of politics is better to forget. We should be interested, first of all, in the sales markets for products and long-term contracts, in the markets for the acquisition of technologies; states with which we will have a significant potential for increasing imports and exports in the future. In these areas, there should be a regime of maximum favor and benevolence, quick, flexible and creative solution of issues.
Secondly, it must meet the interests of our regional security and stability.
Surrounding states should be conditionally divided into friendly, neutral and unfriendly.
Friendly states we must gradually involve in the interests of a mutual, growing economic and cultural symbiosis - we must firmly "plant" the markets of these states on our products, in all possible and profitable ways. If it is possible and expedient to include these states in our regional security project, great.
Neutral States our diplomacy and business must process effectively and delicately, primarily through the joint build-up of non-core trade. The main thing here is not the pace, but a stable and developing movement.
In diplomatic terms, we must be very careful with such countries, adhering to the principle of doctors "do no harm." Business in relations with neighboring countries never should be used like weapon, we must hold on to the business creed.
Finally, the unfriendly neighboring states should be on a benevolent-neutral level of diplomatic relations, economic contacts should be maintained to the extent that it is beneficial to us, increasing the benefits from us by these countries should be tied to a roadmap for resolving our claims to “unfriendly” status. Such claims may be the presence of foreign military installations, political acts harmful to us, etc.
In relations with hostile states, we must completely get away from sucking on mutual squabbles and endless savoring of long past events.
We are interested in today, tomorrow, good, stable profits and our security. Roughly speaking, we should calmly ignore the unfriendly rhetoric of neighbors, also calmly adding critical points from this to the roadmap for improving relations, the contents of which they should be well aware of through diplomatic channels.
Friendly и neutral the countries around us need to be made aware of our major domestic projects and given preferential investment opportunities as well as guarantees that these investments will be protected. Accordingly, friendly states receive more favorable terms than neutral ones.
Unfriendly don't get that opportunity at all.
For a long time, our interest will be primarily tied to our own region. We must forget about any global ambitions until our GDP is comparable to that of the top three at least.
We must involve the CSTO in increasing the shared military spending of the budget, creating modern and combat-ready armies and pushing for the rearmament of these armies with our weapons.
The share of our allies' ability to be a force in the alliance must increase.
Exercises simulating real threats to regional security, and not just ATO or deep hypotheses, should be carried out regularly.
At the first stage we should devote a lot of time to analyzing what our neighbors use the resources they buy from us for - and what of this then returns to us in the form of products. We must take into account the most capacious areas in terms of money in the strategy for launching the corresponding enterprises that create a similar, competitive product for the domestic market.
In case of success in the domestic market, the manufacturer needs to provide all conditions for penetration into the markets of neighboring countries and maximum comfort for growth within the Russian Federation.
This is expressed in maximum information and diplomatic support, long tax holidays, maximum simplification of doing business, preferential loans, etc. Export resources are gradually redirected to a domestic producer of goods that has proven its effective strategy and quality.
In parallel with the first stage (occupation of low-tech product niches in neighboring and friendly states), we must analyze the international market - friendly and neutral states, for high-tech products that we we could start producing with minimal R&D and, with the maximum opportunity, pump the manufacturer with money, domestic or foreign technologies and equipment.
The second stage - in the case of a significant share of similar products (not ours) on our own market and the opportunity to buy all of the above - we must promote the organization of a business that "digs for it" within the Russian Federation, based on existing and relatively successful enterprises on the topic, or with related experience . After pumping money and all sorts of support, the manufacturer receives a significant carte blanche in the domestic market, in case of success - in the neighboring ones, in the future, the state in every possible way contributes to its trade expansion.
In parallel with this stage, an understanding is being formed of which niches in the goods we import or which have weight in the world are tough nuts.
In these areas, the state begins to generously pump up research teams with money, if possible, facilitating the emergence of start-ups in these areas and supporting their activities.
And the third stage. Here our task is much more modest than expansion - we must have guaranteed our own technological cycles in those areas that are vulnerable to us from the point of view of sanctions.
There should be no steps back - potentially vulnerable areas should cease to be such.
If, in the process of such research, we find the possibility of capturing a part of a niche abroad, we should not spare injections in this direction, but this is not an end in itself.
The markets of states that are friendly to us should be saturated primarily with our highly competitive products. With the success of this process, we can already create conditions in which these markets will also support our producers from the third stage - in return for some reciprocal preferences in our domestic market (in the event that the quality of our third-stage production is slightly inferior or the price slightly exceeds foreign analogues).
In general, for external economic expansion - momentary profit not is important for us, because at first we will still be forced to pursue the traditional policy of selling resources. It is the work for the future, the capture of the market and strong, stable dominance on it that is important for us.
In the work of such enterprises within the Russian Federation, the main advantage at first will not be taxes from them, but their capacity for the labor market and domestic innovations, and related domestic equipment.
Where it is reasonable, the state should carry out advisory communication between domestic market participants, facilitating the establishment of mutually beneficial cooperation between them and the import substitution of joint venture products where it is appropriate and can be beneficial.
In more complex cases, roadmaps should be created for the transition to domestic equipment in the future, since the overall percentage of domestic equipment in the domestic market will steadily grow.
As mentioned above, one of the main features of the state in such a system will be highly professional analytics at the state level, the collection and provision of internal and profitable external residents with all the statistical and planned information necessary in their field of activity.
In addition to institutions for the study of internal and external statistics, for internal work we need a new class of officials - I called them the advisory bureaucracy.
The task of these people will be to study with interested people the statistical information provided by the state that is important for their activities.
It is the advisory bureaucracy that will bring the line of the state plan to business, try to involve business in this plan, inform young people about the most demanded vacancies in the future, the regions with the greatest demand for them, etc.
The advisory bureaucracy - lawyers, economists, statistical analysts, managers, negotiators and diplomats - this class of bureaucracy will be the plan's worker bees providing direct and feedback to think tanks.
The advisory bureaucracy is not only a negotiator and conduit connecting business, law, people and the state - the feedback of these people will improve the existing rules. Professional (by education) communities of advisory bureaucrats will organize gatherings where the most pressing issues of the vision of the plan by people and business will be highlighted, requiring development by the state at the legislative level.
Here the task of the advisory bureaucrats will be to point out the rough, harmful and overloaded elements of the legislation in the area in which their advisory activities are carried out. The maximum professional scope will be opened for the successful representatives of this cohort - the selection here should be based on communicative qualities, the volume of tasks solved and participation in recognized rational proposals.
In the future, it is from this environment of officials who “know how to conduct a dialogue and operate with information, who have high communicative qualities and efficiency,” we will grow the top management as well.
The task of the state here is to designate this institution, to bring it out as a link between the state, statistical data, business and the people.
The most important element in the functioning of the country.
At the moment, we have been observing for a long time how this sphere is not only degrading, but also brings a significant share of forcing depressive or decadent moods into society.
I think that at the moment the information space is overflowing with grounding content, advertising, things that do not correspond to the high status of state and information (or entertainment) channels.
For a long time, unhealthy, grassroots political rhetoric is pumped up and instilled, a significant proportion of tabloid negative of the lowest standard and momentary orientation is thrown into society.
In the future, all this resonates within society, results in a mass perception of things, in the relationship between people.
It is clear to me as daylight that for the normal functioning of society, a completely different information policy must be pursued - aimed at high-quality, diversified entertainment, instilling good taste in the population, and involving people in projects that are useful for the state (or for them personally). And most importantly, the media should inform and create a positive mood (or at least not create a negative one).
When people are brainwashed day and night with some kind of criminality, regular bans, forcing foreign policy, and all this mixed with advertising and raising money for the afflicted, then a space is being formed with which a healthy person, in my opinion, will not want to have anything in common.
Since I believe that an extremely important task of a modern and developing state with a high share of social spending and social support should be informational support for its population - this support should also come from the media. They must bring to the masses a healthy, fresh stream, useful knowledge, a beautiful picture, aesthetically form the image of the state that we want to see.
I think that some kind of negative analytics (besides the fact that it should get rid of the musty spirit that is taking place now) should partly go to the pages of specialized publications, partly go to the media not in prime time and on special channels.
Society is very sensitive to a high degree of environmental toxicity - in such an environment there will be more suicides, alcoholism, depressive disorders, life will be deprived of dreams and there will be fewer births - business and social activity of people will also be suppressed by such an atmosphere. Turning it into a positive is not easy, but in general it is possible.
The breakthrough needed for the country would require a significant number of young professionals whose minds and abilities would be more suited to these tasks than what they are doing now.
There are a lot of people around who do not work in their specialty, who received any kind of parasitic education. Within the modest trends that we are seeing now - their potential abilities can be practically not used, of course, not all, but many of them can be “nail-driving microscopes”.
It is worth using the Soviet experience of professional reorientation - but creatively reworking and comprehending it in modern reality.
In the direction of specialties critical for the plan, it is necessary to establish a flexible selection according to personal qualities and abilities - and spare no expense to retrain such specialists.
In the future, state analysts should work on forecasts for the labor market and, through a system of free clubs and the modernization of school education, involve capable people in future professional development already from high school.
Thus, I believe that for a successful breakthrough, we, among other things, must again become one of the flagships of world pedagogy and education - but specifically in this area, we must become the absolute leader in the development and implementation of flexible professional retraining methods.
Full-time, part-time, remote, supported by video and relevant, intelligible materials for self-education - all these are the most important areas of education.
I believe that the state should at least compensate people for part of the funds for training - as a maximum, create conditions in which advanced training and reorientation will be within the framework of comfortable economic costs for a working person.
The limited volume of the article does not allow mentioning all the interesting aspects.
The social part of the budget is supposed to be large, but for the initial period (3-5 years) it will have to be partly sacrificed for the sake of building up good rates (with some drop in state funding).
With an increase in the numerical values of the budget, with the growth of the economy, large amounts will be allocated to finance these areas, in the future the percentage of diverted funds from government spending (for the Fund) will decrease, the percentage of social spending will increase (since the state's contributions to the Fund will be tied to specific figures, not a percentage of the budget).
The state will have to extract from somewhere (in the second or third year of the plan) considerable funds for the training of personnel, space and programs, for the free leisure of childhood and youth (by the 7th or 8th year of the plan).
These and many other questions can be deepened in an additional article of the series, if there is interest.
The existing legislative framework needs to be reworked in order to cut off vestiges, lobbying, excessive twisting and backdoors.
The law is the more readily fulfilled, the simpler, clearer and more intuitively justified it is.
We need laws that create a system that is quite comfortable for work and sufficiently convenient for reporting and transparency of activities, which will promote the development of creative private entrepreneurship within the country.
Everything that generates income and creates jobs, everything that consumes domestic resources and technologies to create a useful and competitive product for internal and external needs should be supported at the legislative level.
Speculative entrepreneurship should be deprived of these legislative advantages, but the state should not interfere with it in case of transparency and accountability.
I believe that we need to increase penalties for tax evasion and economic crimes, while at the same time we need to reduce the costs of the judicial system, expand the practice of suspended sentences and fines for minor offenses.
One could write a lot here - but in short, the idea sounds like this: a person who is unequivocally dangerous to society in the most direct sense of the word should sit behind bars.
It makes no sense to imprison for economic crimes of small / medium gravity - fines, a suspended sentence, corrective labor, a ban on traveling abroad, a ban on further work with large funds, etc. should be applied.
For a greater degree of severity - confiscation of property, a detailed study of the income and property of relatives, landing, finally.
Participants in economic crimes are also interesting because, due to their abilities and inclinations, they can be useful for improving the shortcomings of the existing legislative framework. In the case of cooperation of such an offender with the authorities and a detailed description of the mechanism of the offense, using a hole in the legislation, it is possible to cut off his term up to a complete replacement with a conditional one.
The punitive instruments of the state do not exist in order to break people's lives - the task of these instruments is to neutralize frankly unhealthy, harmful elements of society, indicate the path of correction and give a second chance to those who do not reach this value.
Article No. 2 indicates a completely outrageous figure for our inflation over the past 20 years. This figure is 9-10 times higher than inflation in the developed countries around us.
Having such a level of it, we will not go far - it will be impossible to stably accumulate funds in the national currency, freely conduct business, and predictably take loans.
Curbing inflation to record low, steadily declining levels is a major construction challenge, beyond demographics.
The main factors of inflation in our country, first of all, are the rise in the cost of resources, high lending and deposit rates, inept monetary policy, large-scale withdrawal of funds abroad, extensive intermediary schemes where this is of no practical use. Secondly, this is a decrease in consumption, a drop in production, and so on.
Yes, economists will forgive me for such simplifications - it is important for me to catch the root of the problem.
The root of the problem, as I see it, is a combination of high lending rates, lack of healthy price compensation for internal resources, within the state (due to external supplies, by reducing the excess profits of the extractive industries), an ideal environment for speculation and mediation (existing due to the low information culture and "Byzantine" legislation).
The decrease in consumption takes place due to the fall in the income level of the population and the general predictability of life.
Inept monetary policy is a complex factor, I do not presume to discuss the degree of its influence: it is speculatively large, since all of the above can be safely written here.
Finally, the withdrawal of funds abroad is a separable factor. As the above mentioned decrease, this trend will also decrease - but it will not completely disappear.
To effectively combat it, the state must operate with statistics and improve legislation, on the one hand, stimulating the involvement of outgoing capital in the country's economy, on the other hand, complicating such a withdrawal of funds through economic or legislative mechanisms. Knut and gingerbread, as it is.
Accordingly, the creation of large funds with minimal loan rates for activities useful to the state is a solution.
Price retention (in the first 3-5 years of the plan at least, in the future, prices for internal resources for the consumer may increase in proportion to the growth of the economy) by all domestically produced resources.
Statistical portals indicate that at the current pace, our resources will last for 70 years (gas), 30 years (oil), 350 years (coal) - all this taking into account external sales.
Thus, within the framework of the plan for our own needs (and taking into account the strategy of moving away from energy exports), we have more than enough own resources - this is our advantage.
In the case of sales abroad, the price for the domestic consumer should be compensated taking into account the optimal forecasts of consumption growth - to a fixed value or close to it.
The same, but to a somewhat lesser extent (depending on the size of explored reserves) should also apply to other resources produced in the country - for the domestic consumer, all this should be sold at the maximum fixed price.
Success rests on the advantages - our advantages are significant reserves of our resources, cheap generation, the benefits from which can be increased (due to the cold climate), significant potential for hydro generation, well-developed technologies for building nuclear power plants.
All this distinguishes us favorably from importing countries - both resources and energy resources for generation and heating.
At the moment, we have a fairly low cost of labor - but also low labor productivity and innovation. Our production culture is also not ideal - all this cannot be called our advantages.
Our scientific potential maybe our advantage (and we need to do everything possible for this), because we still have a fairly strong scientific school and many talented minds - less "gluttonous" than their Western counterparts.
Own chemical industry (and resources for it) and agriculture - there are also I can be to a greater extent by our advantages (compared to importing countries).
Thus we have all objective conditions for creating competitive products and occupying a good part of the global niche. To do this, we just need to make access to these advantages of internal residents as clear as possible, promote legislative and informational business activity, and inject significant funds into science.
Having ensured stable playing conditions in the above areas, created low-interest funds and state-level information support-analytics, we are doomed to success.
The most controversial, but at the same time the most necessary, in my opinion, part of the article.
It is difficult to outline this idea briefly - article No. 5 may be needed to clarify and develop a number of issues.
Specifically on this issue, it would be very interesting for me to read the opinion of economists in the comments - because I see it as effective, although, perhaps, there are pitfalls there.
Russia has 80 (83) million able-bodied population. This figure is approximate due to unemployment, etc. So the calculation here will be quite approximate and brief.
Officially, the average salary in our country is 51 thousand rubles. Of course, this is a reason to smile. Empirically, I would be more inclined towards the figure of 25 thousand rubles.
The bottom line is that we will not take the largest funds for development and demography from anywhere except from these 80 million people. This is a sad thought, but at the same time quite interesting.
Suppose each worker will allocate 2 rubles in taxes to the FSR per month in the form of taxes. In a year, we have a figure of almost 2 trillion rubles.
Two trillion.
To better understand the scale of this figure, our budget in 2020 was 20,2 trillion rubles. That is, in a year, able-bodied citizens can thus generate about 10% of the country's annual budget.
This is a huge amount of money that can and should be used as a basis for the modernization and development of the state.
This figure can be scattered in the form of a progressive tax - to a lesser extent for those whose salary is less than 25 thousand rubles, to a greater extent - for those who have it above 40-50.
Perhaps it would be reasonable to withdraw part of this amount from pensions at the beginning of the plan (1-3 years) - according to the author's estimates, this is an amount of about 300 rubles per month.
Before being indignant: I suggest everyone to think about whether such a price is high for the state to get out of its current situation - into a position of successful growth.
Are you personally ready you would pay this price?
Primarily, this money is of interest from the point of view of an incredibly important demographic support program (the support program will be indicated below, for convenience).
The second pointWhat makes this fund an important, I would say, a key part of the breakthrough strategy is that loans will be issued from this fund for projects necessary for the state - housing construction, production start-ups, mortgage lending. I think that a rate of about 2% per annum for such loans would be optimal.
With the money from the income of this fund, it would be possible to expand housing construction that contributes to the "Housing Support for Young Families" program (separately and below).
It is worth noting that the fund itself, over the 10 years of its existence, would have accumulated a colossal amount of about 20 trillion rubles from contributions from workers alone.
State investments in this fund at the first stage (3-5 years) from the budget should also be significant (and comparable with the investments of workers).
This can be achieved by somewhat optimizing budget spending - that is, by reducing the percentages of a number of its items by small values. In total, in the first years it will be necessary to allocate about 8-9% of the budget for this.
It is important to understand that any jerk requires resources.
Extraction of resources for a breakthrough - occurs always. Even in perfect design and with perfect planning, within 3-5 years from the start of the plan - this particular fund can negatively affect the income side of citizens. It's worth recognizing.
However, let's think - what would be the advantages of such a scenario?
For starters, we would be able to bring inflation down to record low levels over a period of more than a year and stabilize intra-market prices. Something would be cheaper. That is, in numerical terms, wages would “lose weight”, but with this money one could buy a comparable basket.
We would start a process of large-scale job creation and housing construction - the unemployment rate in society would fall, the earnings of specific people outside the first year period would begin to grow, as price fixing for domestic resources would stimulate production and consumption.
In the future, over the course of 3-5 years, these processes would develop and strengthen - our budget would begin to grow, foreign economic and tax revenues in the budget itself would begin to increase.
In percentage terms, with low inflation, the population would also begin to grow - and the longer such a fund existed, the less noticeable against the background of the success of its activities would be the inconvenience of investing in it.
This point is inextricably linked with the previous one, since it is both a consequence of the social line of the state and the involvement of part of the funds from the fund.
To begin with, I will outline the introductory ones - a 12-storey building with an underground garage, for 72 person-families, according to the author's calculations, appeared at a price of 350 million rubles.
Nominally - 300+, but in fact, a solid fat was included in the calculation, providing for various force majeure. The calculations were based on this data.
The author allowed himself to reduce the number of storeys to a more aesthetically acceptable one, the extra materials inside the conditional project can be used to improve the quality of the model object (structural strength, size of balconies, room parameters, sound insulation).
All this is purely theoretical data needed for approximate estimation here and in the future.
This is one of the potential examples of public housing construction. If you like, this is a model object for most of the country's territory, where it makes sense to build a typical building.
Now imagine that in a similar house we give out a 2-room apartment all young families (provided they provide some simple package of documents) for life rent (with the possibility of mortgage redemption in the future) at 5 thousand rubles a month (excluding water, electricity, etc.).
Families with more than one child move into such houses in 3-room apartments on exactly the same conditions - 5 thousand rubles. In the input above, the price of such an apartment will appear - in the region of 5 million rubles.
We will need this important parameter below.
The amount of a monthly mortgage at 2% per annum for the purchase of such housing (not rent) (for 20 years) is about 30 thousand rubles. This is a heavy sum, but it will become less heavy the more the economy grows.
Families that have paid off the mortgage become classic homeowners - they can sell it, leave it as a legacy, rent it out, etc.
Renting families cannot do this accordingly, but in all other respects their rights are equivalent to the rights of owners, since this is a lifetime lease.
You ask me - what is the benefit of the state in this case?
At first, we are lifting a huge burden off the shoulders of thousands of young families trying to combine the current mortgage burden with the birth of 1 or more children. We really make their life easier, along the way giving stability and faith in tomorrow, the opportunity to focus on education, professional growth, raising children, etc.
Secondly, we create a mechanism that allows attract such families to regions of interest to the state and future industrial clusters.
ThirdlyFrom the point of view of consumption, we tremendously expand the consumer opportunities of such families - as we expand the area available to them, free up part of their finances, etc. They stimulate the economy with their growing consumption.
Fourthly, this measure is one of the pillars of solving our demographic problem.
Fifth, finally, the state will set a high standard for housing construction, which have match the market participants in private construction.
The funds obtained in this way from the lease can be directed directly to the improvement of the territories adjacent to the houses, the total funds for the areas of such houses can be transferred to the creation of infrastructure, among other things.
In short, every child born from two citizens of the Russian Federation and on the territory of the Russian Federation by birth receives a closed bank account, to which 10 thousand rubles are received monthly, until they reach their 20th birthday.
In total, during this time, 2 million 400 thousand rubles will go to such an account - or almost half of the above figures for the cost of housing (2-room apartment).
The author counted and counted - the organization of this quite real, it is directly tied to the above fund.
The advantage of such a scheme will be that it will allow the country to have an ever-increasing money box for the growth and development of the economy, for financing low-interest loans.
After all, 20-year-old children will not need these funds! Upon reaching the age of 20 - this money is available in the form of a certificate that compensates for the specified amount in the purchase of housing. Since the cost of housing will vary within certain limits, this will automatically allow each young member of society at the age of 20 to be entitled to 1/3-1/2 apartments.
As you understand, in the case of young families, their certificates can be combined, and you can immediately get an apartment in ownership, with insignificant contributions to the territorial equivalent.
Or a person saves the rest of the amount - and the certificate is spinning this time inside the economy, making a profit.
The benefits of this scheme for demographic growth are enormous.
Parents will not need to rack their brains about where their growing backbiters will go for an independent life. Young citizens themselves will have the opportunity to join the economic life of the country early enough with full rights, start a family without unnecessary difficulties and focus more on work and education.
In 20 years from the start of this program, the number of able-bodied, economically active population will increase annually by 1-1,5 million people, that is, more funds will flow into the fund.
The fund itself has been unclaimed for 20 years and serves the economy, development and construction.
After this period, 7,2 trillion rubles will leave the fund annually (over a period of 20 years, the fund itself will accumulate and operate on an economy scale in the amount of about 76 trillion rubles (half of which will be provided by the contribution of workers, half by budget allocations).
During this time, the budget itself will grow at least 3 times - up to 60 trillion rubles, which will further reduce the percentage burden of deductions on the budget itself (for comparison: we can point out that over the 20-year period (2000-2020) 8 times, the Turkish economy - 4,5 times).
This growth was not based on 2% lending and the scale of state support that I am talking about.
To stimulate the personal development of the child, it is possible (and necessary) to introduce bonus payments that go to this fund from the state for successful studies, voluntary service in the Armed Forces, admission to a university, participation in sections, etc.
Let these be small payments - this is a good propaganda move, showing that the fate of a person is not indifferent to the state.
Since demography and economic development are our cornerstone, at the junction we see the need for large-scale housing construction under the control of the state.
The state forms a project (an example with a model object is indicated above), which includes a fairly good margin potential in its price. The state monitors the minimum fluctuations in prices for domestically produced resources. The state is one of the largest customers.
Private traders are building - since the scale of work is huge, competition between them will be significant, and depending on this, the state will distribute tenders and increase the credit admission of these contractors to the fund. That is, there will be a "credit of trust".
Requests for housing construction will be formed within a complex queuing scheme.
First, the state forms a draft plan that considers the desired distribution of demography within the country for a period of 20–40 years (taking into account regions that are convenient for living and regions that can be made so within the specified time frame).
Then the state, through the consulting bureaucracy, conveys this draft plan to the business community, which adjusts this plan or its business projects depending on the best compromise that combines the convenience of production and business and access to labor.
Then the state once again reviews the entire plan, taking into account these wishes - after which it approves its final version with the most economically active persons involved.
In the future, the main plan is a refinement and addition to this option.
It is worth noting that, as such, the plan will be worked out by the analytical community for a period much longer than 40 years. By itself, business will only help form the core of the implementation of this plan - future large and rich industrial agglomerations.
A model object inside a building exists not as a model of construction, but as a format for a basic designated level of comfort, i.e., a social standard for settlement.
I see it as such a 12-storey building with an underground garage and ample outdoor area. Accordingly, taking into account climatic zones and smaller / larger storey construction, it will be necessary to develop a fairly wide list of typical projects based on this model (in the economics of calculations) - and providing for fairly wide opportunities for aesthetic modernization and refinement.
Offhand, in the first 10 years of the plan, it will be necessary to provide housing for about 5-10 million people. This means that we are dealing with figures of the order of 35-72 thousand houses, or about 8 thousand houses per year (this construction is approximately equivalent to 2,8 trillion rubles a year), when calculating the cost of a 12-storey building as 350 million rubles.
This figure is quite consistent with the available size of the fund, which provides for about 3,7 trillion rubles of income per year (approximately in half: from working citizens and from the state budget).
Within this construction, a limited share (about 2-4 million apartments over 10 years) will be allocated for rent - other housing will be built under a 2% mortgage.
The next 10 years, housing construction will have to be expanded - but at this stage we will already get a solid leverage in the form of a developing regional business that can be involved in partial financing of such development, as well as a numerically increasing budget and well-being of people.
First of all, the state apparatus must become extremely economical.
I believe that modern democracy is unnecessarily cumbersome, inefficient and gluttonous for our country - the people's deputies sitting in the Duma, for the most part, people are not ideal, in terms of meeting the scale of the tasks assigned to them, who got to this place not due to their professional qualities and their ability " solve problems effectively”, and as a result of using their media exposure, popularity, party games, etc.
This does not mean that there are no professionals there - it means that their share in the total number is negligible. This institution consumes unnecessarily resources, it needs to be replaced by two bodies.
State Party and Professional Council (GPPS) .
This is a party-professional representation in which there is a limited number of seats (for example, 25), each of which corresponds to 4% of the electorate.
Parties that have crossed the 4% threshold in elections to this council (the choice is made precisely by parties, and not by lists) receive one seat, which they are free to take a highly professional representative from their ranks, depending on the direction of activity that this particular party is considers it necessary (or declared in the elections) to improve and defend.
If the party is concerned about the state of medicine, in the GPPS it is presented as a doctor by education, of the highest class.
If a party occupies 20% of the electorate, it gets 5 “slots”, etc.
Accordingly, it can take these places by specialists from different fields. A party can replace a representative twice per mandate - with another region or another person, if the issue of interest is closed or a more pressing one appears during the lawmaking process.
Parties that collectively gain less than 4% can form an alliance by displaying a figure expressing an inter-party agreement.
The task of the GPPS will be the formation of new laws for the "Supra-Regional Parliament", the analysis of the laws proposed by the "Supra-Regional Parliament", the formation of a collective agenda for urgent resolution of issues, the processing of key requests from the teams of professional communities (represented by a specialist), debates about the budget, etc.
Roughly speaking, these people will make serious laws, in professional polemics, they will have the opportunity to influence the percentage of the budget, the flexible distribution of additional funds. Each member of the council has two deputies, one of whom is responsible for working with the requests of professional communities, the second one is responsible for establishing constructive interaction between the members of the SBAC, and if it is impossible for a member of the SSAA to attend the session, he replaces him.
No free visits are envisaged: the members of the SSAC are professionals and representatives of the parties, their task is to resolve issues as efficiently as possible, in view of this, absence from the council is an exceptional circumstance.
GPPS corrects the plan provided by analytical institutes, generates requests for them.
Supraregional Parliament (NP).
The supra-regional parliament (NP) is an assembly of deputies elected by representatives of their region. Each subsidized region has the right to provide only one deputy, neutral and donor regions can provide up to two deputies to the NP.
All this - again, should be highly professional people with higher education and proper professional qualities. The NP allows and even welcomes the arrival of the advisory bureaucracy.
Representatives of subsidized regions have the exclusive right to begin the convocation with a report on proposals for the possibility of expanding the investment attractiveness of their regions.
Deputies of the NP form laws, requests for raising funds to the region, participate in consultations on attracting businesses to the regions, expanding the plan to the regions. They also make their judgments on the legislative initiatives of the State Border Guard Service - they can reject these laws by a majority.
Each deputy of the NP receives a salary from the budget of his region. This figure is tied to the minimum wage within his region. Each deputy has up to 2 assistants.
Deputies get into the NP through intra-regional voting, respectively, being 1-2 people who have taken these places, as representatives of the most pronounced electoral strata of their region.
Roughly speaking, the Supra-Regional Parliament deals with the involvement of its regions in the plan, interacts with big business from inside and outside the country, interested in affairs in this region.
A deputy of the NP, re-elected by the majority to his place, receives the right to become the head of the region upon the termination of his powers in the NP (the corresponding powers of the heads of regions last twice as long as the powers of deputies).
There are also regional parliaments that have the right to request a report from a representative of the region and participate in the formation of the agenda for it.
Significant funds in modern times are extracted from the film, game and sound industries.
Not only does this product create a “feeling of quality of life”, it is a guide to the world of culture of the producing country, it also means good foreign exchange earnings from rental, it is also the promotion of the country abroad, the creation of its image.
Thus, it is obvious to me that if we want to be a superpower, we will need to invest qualitatively different means in the production of cultural products, to make them much more qualitative and competitive. Create masterpieces that sink into the soul.
The state should not only spare no money for this - the mechanisms for distributing these funds should be simple and clear, the product itself should be profitable.
Losing product - leaves the evolutionary arena, making room for profitable.
We need to end the production of "not for everyone" cinema - we need normal, high-quality commercial cinema. Mechanisms for state financing and all kinds of informational or even tax support for start-ups capable of creating such a highly competitive product should be formed.
Only the creation of a large-scale environment that supports such initiatives will allow us not only to preserve and convey our culture, but also to modernize it.
Cultural policy is an inseparable part of the information policy aimed at a new, creative beginning and the progress of society.
But she is not!
The only idea that should be in everyone's minds is the desire to finally, after a crazy bunch of years, lead the country to the flourishing of culture, business activity, living standards, prosperity and science.
To make the country loved and understandable, the state to be caring and wise. It is reasonable to be proud of objective successes and growth, to feel part of this progress.
Starting a series of articles, I thought that at the end I would outline the fork of our development from three possibilities - independent development, "Union 2.0" (superstate), movement towards becoming a competitor of the EU.
Having reached the last article, through the numbers and reflections on these numbers, I understand that, although these options have their value and even meaning, at the moment it is incorrect to talk about all but the first one.
Because for the leader of Union 2.0 we are too imperfect, for competition with the EU, in this case, we are too small demographically, much less than we would like.
All this inevitably led me to the idea that at the present historical period and until 2060 without the implementation of all of the above, we no profitable options other than to start doing it all.
And in the future, if everything was fine, we will not need these options.
I admit (and even more - I would like it) that a number of our neighboring states - members of the former USSR will be interested in the closest integration with us. As we progress, the more so. But to associate these successes with fact integration is an illusion.
It is necessary to ripen before qualitative changes. Every society should grasp their need, their benefit. This cannot be forced, it is unreasonable to push through the elites. This should want to the people themselves. Every time.
I think the current migration policy is appalling.
In any case, we will need a certain amount of foreign labor (in the first 3-5 years), but we absolutely do not need to distribute Russian citizenship right and left.
In granting citizenship, we should (in my opinion) follow a policy of proportionality. Now in society there is a certain ethno-religious proportional composition: 79,83% are Russians, 3,8% are Tatars, 2% are Ukrainians, Bashkirs-Chuvash-Chechens - ~ 1% each, and so on.
All these nationalities can be conditionally divided according to religious and cultural grounds - and in this case we will get a percentage proportion, quoting the granting of citizenship on an ethno-religious basis.
To some, this idea may seem bad - but the author only points out that the percentage of representatives of cultures and confessions in society must be kept at natural for the country level. Otherwise, we will get an atypical increase in tension on interethnic grounds, in completely unexpected regions.
The calculation indicates that until 2060 we not we will be able, relying on purely demographic forces, to increase the population by 60 million. We will have to attract about 10-20 million people.
We have an opportunity for this - a significant proportion of the Russian-speaking population outside the country. These people - with their money, skills - we can and must attract, including preferential granting of citizenship, preferential mortgages, better conditions for doing business and a better social program than our neighbors. In case of success in this field, these citizens will invest in the country's economy and in the fund.
As our economy grows, we will also need to involve the minds of neighboring states. We should not turn our noses up at this policy - first of all, giving preference to young, professionally necessary, Russian speakers.
The ethno-religious proportion should not be some kind of rigidly fixed criterion - but this parameter in the form of a desired one should take place and be seen in each of our decisions.
Here I will try to briefly answer a number of acute questions.
This article is only trying to form an idea in a draft version that seems the most feasible and attractive to the author.
This is an open idea, and you can add to it, develop it, deepen it, or criticize it constructively.
The very idea is bоmore value after all these processes, as it becomes closer to realizability and more attractive to everyone.
The implementation of the idea is not considered in this article - since the discussion of methods can polarize our society much more than everything written together.
For the author, it is obvious that the times of the horse-checkers-expropriation remained in the glorious past of our country - the idea will be the more realistic, the less violence and abstract theory in the style of Marx-Engels in it.
The basis of this idea is purely capitalist tools that allow “by magic” to dramatically increase the needs of our market and the total standard of living - with all the positive effects that come from this for capitalist relations.
The author is impressed by much of socialism, but it is worth recognizing that market relations (albeit with a significant role of the state as an analyst, planner and responsible for the social sphere) are intuitively much more understandable to the majority of the population and much more accessible for borrowing from someone else's experience that is interesting to us, than the experience of socialist construction (to put it bluntly: a rare bird with it has flown to our days).
Thus, I would be very grateful if readers who adhere to established leftist beliefs would not try to attach elements to the above agenda that are unusual for it.
The article turned out to be long, and still something will be missed. Much is debatable.
Actually, this cycle was originally conceived behind - I had a desire to find a thread that could pull our country onto the line of successful growth and development in this century, discover it myself, with the help of readers, find it in search, disputes, reflections, compromises.
I would be very grateful to you, dear readers, if you spread the link to this article among your friends and acquaintances - the more people participate in the discussion, the more attractive the idea is, the more likely it is that some of this can influence existing trends for the better.
I remain open to questions and discussion. In the event that there are a lot of questions in the comments to this article on any parts of this article, perhaps I will make an article number 5, explaining them or deepening them.
Thanks to my readers for their remarkable patience, and to the Military Review team for the opportunity to publish this rather big work and prompt editing!
This will be the most difficult article in the cycle, since when the author was dealing with an array of numbers - everything was clear and peremptory, when the question of the parameters we needed was raised - everything, in principle, was also more or less obvious.
Few will argue that such a huge country needs a decent demographic. Few will object that our spending on science is out of the question. And that GDP is still desirable to have more.
This article is difficult because the author takes on a potentially overwhelming task: to form the image of a successful state on the platform of the modern Russian Federation, and he is well aware that some details will be missed, that lovers of the hammer and sickle are unlikely to be satisfied with his attempts, as, in fact, and admirers of liberal democracy.
But I see my task not in closing the issue and not in pleasing philosophizing aesthetes from different camps - my task is to outline an incredibly relevant discussion about how we should continue to live and develop so as not to oversleep our future.
So everything that follows is only my personal opinion, and if you have something to add to it, it is always open to ideas and constructive discussions.
Basis
Any model is based on pillars - the pillars of this model are the state's recognition of a simple thing: our country and its people deserve wealth and space for self-realization.
There is no super-goal higher than this, there are no projects until this task is sufficiently realized. A sufficient measure is indicated in the last article.
Before these parameters, we are not interested in global politics, unless it brings us a good and predictable income.
The Russian Federation has no enemies - there are states with which the Russian Federation conducts and develops business, and countries with which the Russian Federation conducts exclusively limited activities, within the borders, first of all, beneficial to the Russian Federation.
We have a vast territory at our disposal, the entire periodic table, gigantic energy, water, crop, fish and other resources. Beyond this, we do not need any territories, our key task, in addition to increasing the internal well-being, wealth and industrial and scientific power of the state, is to populate and ennoble these territories.
The work here is not for one hundred years - so that the surrounding states are of interest to the Russian Federation, first of all, as sources of investment, technology, "suppliers of brains" and the market for mutual trade. At some stage, of course, it will be necessary to use both foreign labor and construction competencies.
Role of the state
In this model, I see the state, in addition to performing its traditional functions, as a powerful advisory and prognostic tool, acting for the benefit of its residents and its business.
Since the planned economy as a whole does not appeal to me, but I recognize its certain advantages, the task of the state is to form some kind of reasonable and carefully thought-out plan, which will be familiar to society and business.
All the necessary statistical information will be painstakingly collected by the state, analyzed, forecasted and offered to its own citizens and companies: those who are interested in being part of this project activity will be given preferences, those who are not interested will not be hindered.
I see the need for a long stage of the development of the state to build predominantly market, capitalist relations - however, with the growth of prosperity, according to the plan, the social burden on business and the state will increase, with effective development in such capitalism, the percentage of what many associate with elements of socialism will increase .
Demography
Our challenge is to grow at least 50 million people over a period of 40 years.
In 2020, 1,4 million children were born in the Russian Federation, suppose that we managed to equalize the figure of loss and profit at this value - and this is a conditional zero (although, of course, this is far from the case).
That is, in order to increase 40 million people in 40 years, we will need 2,5 million births per year: a million more than now.
Considering that we will not be able to reach this rate abruptly, and that we need to increase not 40 million people, but all 50, then at a certain stage we need to reach the figure of 3 million births per year, that is, in fact, double population growth.
We will have to attract the remaining 20 million people to the country from neighboring territories. This point will be indicated below.
This is not an easy task, but it is doable.
To do this, the state needs to thoroughly strain on the fronts that have practically nothing to do with demography.
This task, since it is key, in general, should be divided into several parts:
1. It is necessary to significantly improve the climate of the public information space. This will be discussed in the Information Policy section.
2. Fertility can be stimulated by increasing benefits for women on maternity leave, young fathers, economically supporting young families - here I see the main nuance, in addition to the sum of important little things, the issue of capital support for young families with housing.
The presence of such support, in addition to stimulating the birth rate, contributes to the expansion of the settlement of people in the regions. For example, the state will build housing for young families and lease it to them for life for 5 rubles a month, with the possibility of further redemption of this housing at low-interest mortgage rates (more on that below).
3. It is possible to stimulate the birth rate through the creation of a closed account for each child born, to which some amount of state revenues will be deducted every month until the age of 20, in the expectation that by adulthood he will repay from 1/3 to 1/2 of the cost of housing from these money. The funds in this account can be used for loans, housing or commercial development while the child is growing.
More about this below - in the section "Social and Economic Development Fund".
Points 2 and 3 at the initial stages of the formation of the system impose a certain burden on the budget and the working population - in the future, these expenses are compensated mainly by economic growth, nominal budget figures and foreign trade turnover.
4. The state increases the funds allocated for medical support of pregnant women or women who are about to become pregnant. Not God knows what means, in fact.
5. The state guarantees the inviolability of this social line in the future.
Of course, at the instrumental level, the state should gently direct the resettlement of people from overpopulated megacities to the Far East, including young families.
This attraction can be expressed in the fact that, within the overall plan, special attention should be paid to the Far East in interaction with business and the idea of organizing large enterprises, places are carefully selected taking into account a combination of convenient location, comfort for living and industry-business interests.
At the first stage (10-20 years from the start), it is enough to ensure the influx of about 10 million inhabitants into the region, in every possible way contributing to their development.
In the future, these people will contribute, together with state support, to a deeper study of the formation of an environment for million-plus cities and the capital settlement of the region.
Foreign policy
For the foreseeable future, foreign policy should correspond to three points.
At first, it should contribute to the rate of welfare growth we have chosen.
Politics for the sake of politics is better to forget. We should be interested, first of all, in the sales markets for products and long-term contracts, in the markets for the acquisition of technologies; states with which we will have a significant potential for increasing imports and exports in the future. In these areas, there should be a regime of maximum favor and benevolence, quick, flexible and creative solution of issues.
Secondly, it must meet the interests of our regional security and stability.
Surrounding states should be conditionally divided into friendly, neutral and unfriendly.
Friendly states we must gradually involve in the interests of a mutual, growing economic and cultural symbiosis - we must firmly "plant" the markets of these states on our products, in all possible and profitable ways. If it is possible and expedient to include these states in our regional security project, great.
Neutral States our diplomacy and business must process effectively and delicately, primarily through the joint build-up of non-core trade. The main thing here is not the pace, but a stable and developing movement.
In diplomatic terms, we must be very careful with such countries, adhering to the principle of doctors "do no harm." Business in relations with neighboring countries never should be used like weapon, we must hold on to the business creed.
Finally, the unfriendly neighboring states should be on a benevolent-neutral level of diplomatic relations, economic contacts should be maintained to the extent that it is beneficial to us, increasing the benefits from us by these countries should be tied to a roadmap for resolving our claims to “unfriendly” status. Such claims may be the presence of foreign military installations, political acts harmful to us, etc.
In relations with hostile states, we must completely get away from sucking on mutual squabbles and endless savoring of long past events.
We are interested in today, tomorrow, good, stable profits and our security. Roughly speaking, we should calmly ignore the unfriendly rhetoric of neighbors, also calmly adding critical points from this to the roadmap for improving relations, the contents of which they should be well aware of through diplomatic channels.
Friendly и neutral the countries around us need to be made aware of our major domestic projects and given preferential investment opportunities as well as guarantees that these investments will be protected. Accordingly, friendly states receive more favorable terms than neutral ones.
Unfriendly don't get that opportunity at all.
For a long time, our interest will be primarily tied to our own region. We must forget about any global ambitions until our GDP is comparable to that of the top three at least.
Regional Security Architecture
We must involve the CSTO in increasing the shared military spending of the budget, creating modern and combat-ready armies and pushing for the rearmament of these armies with our weapons.
The share of our allies' ability to be a force in the alliance must increase.
Exercises simulating real threats to regional security, and not just ATO or deep hypotheses, should be carried out regularly.
External business strategy
At the first stage we should devote a lot of time to analyzing what our neighbors use the resources they buy from us for - and what of this then returns to us in the form of products. We must take into account the most capacious areas in terms of money in the strategy for launching the corresponding enterprises that create a similar, competitive product for the domestic market.
In case of success in the domestic market, the manufacturer needs to provide all conditions for penetration into the markets of neighboring countries and maximum comfort for growth within the Russian Federation.
This is expressed in maximum information and diplomatic support, long tax holidays, maximum simplification of doing business, preferential loans, etc. Export resources are gradually redirected to a domestic producer of goods that has proven its effective strategy and quality.
In parallel with the first stage (occupation of low-tech product niches in neighboring and friendly states), we must analyze the international market - friendly and neutral states, for high-tech products that we we could start producing with minimal R&D and, with the maximum opportunity, pump the manufacturer with money, domestic or foreign technologies and equipment.
The second stage - in the case of a significant share of similar products (not ours) on our own market and the opportunity to buy all of the above - we must promote the organization of a business that "digs for it" within the Russian Federation, based on existing and relatively successful enterprises on the topic, or with related experience . After pumping money and all sorts of support, the manufacturer receives a significant carte blanche in the domestic market, in case of success - in the neighboring ones, in the future, the state in every possible way contributes to its trade expansion.
In parallel with this stage, an understanding is being formed of which niches in the goods we import or which have weight in the world are tough nuts.
In these areas, the state begins to generously pump up research teams with money, if possible, facilitating the emergence of start-ups in these areas and supporting their activities.
And the third stage. Here our task is much more modest than expansion - we must have guaranteed our own technological cycles in those areas that are vulnerable to us from the point of view of sanctions.
There should be no steps back - potentially vulnerable areas should cease to be such.
If, in the process of such research, we find the possibility of capturing a part of a niche abroad, we should not spare injections in this direction, but this is not an end in itself.
The markets of states that are friendly to us should be saturated primarily with our highly competitive products. With the success of this process, we can already create conditions in which these markets will also support our producers from the third stage - in return for some reciprocal preferences in our domestic market (in the event that the quality of our third-stage production is slightly inferior or the price slightly exceeds foreign analogues).
In general, for external economic expansion - momentary profit not is important for us, because at first we will still be forced to pursue the traditional policy of selling resources. It is the work for the future, the capture of the market and strong, stable dominance on it that is important for us.
In the work of such enterprises within the Russian Federation, the main advantage at first will not be taxes from them, but their capacity for the labor market and domestic innovations, and related domestic equipment.
Where it is reasonable, the state should carry out advisory communication between domestic market participants, facilitating the establishment of mutually beneficial cooperation between them and the import substitution of joint venture products where it is appropriate and can be beneficial.
In more complex cases, roadmaps should be created for the transition to domestic equipment in the future, since the overall percentage of domestic equipment in the domestic market will steadily grow.
Advisory bureaucracy
As mentioned above, one of the main features of the state in such a system will be highly professional analytics at the state level, the collection and provision of internal and profitable external residents with all the statistical and planned information necessary in their field of activity.
In addition to institutions for the study of internal and external statistics, for internal work we need a new class of officials - I called them the advisory bureaucracy.
The task of these people will be to study with interested people the statistical information provided by the state that is important for their activities.
It is the advisory bureaucracy that will bring the line of the state plan to business, try to involve business in this plan, inform young people about the most demanded vacancies in the future, the regions with the greatest demand for them, etc.
The advisory bureaucracy - lawyers, economists, statistical analysts, managers, negotiators and diplomats - this class of bureaucracy will be the plan's worker bees providing direct and feedback to think tanks.
The advisory bureaucracy is not only a negotiator and conduit connecting business, law, people and the state - the feedback of these people will improve the existing rules. Professional (by education) communities of advisory bureaucrats will organize gatherings where the most pressing issues of the vision of the plan by people and business will be highlighted, requiring development by the state at the legislative level.
Here the task of the advisory bureaucrats will be to point out the rough, harmful and overloaded elements of the legislation in the area in which their advisory activities are carried out. The maximum professional scope will be opened for the successful representatives of this cohort - the selection here should be based on communicative qualities, the volume of tasks solved and participation in recognized rational proposals.
In the future, it is from this environment of officials who “know how to conduct a dialogue and operate with information, who have high communicative qualities and efficiency,” we will grow the top management as well.
The task of the state here is to designate this institution, to bring it out as a link between the state, statistical data, business and the people.
Information Policy
The most important element in the functioning of the country.
At the moment, we have been observing for a long time how this sphere is not only degrading, but also brings a significant share of forcing depressive or decadent moods into society.
I think that at the moment the information space is overflowing with grounding content, advertising, things that do not correspond to the high status of state and information (or entertainment) channels.
For a long time, unhealthy, grassroots political rhetoric is pumped up and instilled, a significant proportion of tabloid negative of the lowest standard and momentary orientation is thrown into society.
In the future, all this resonates within society, results in a mass perception of things, in the relationship between people.
It is clear to me as daylight that for the normal functioning of society, a completely different information policy must be pursued - aimed at high-quality, diversified entertainment, instilling good taste in the population, and involving people in projects that are useful for the state (or for them personally). And most importantly, the media should inform and create a positive mood (or at least not create a negative one).
When people are brainwashed day and night with some kind of criminality, regular bans, forcing foreign policy, and all this mixed with advertising and raising money for the afflicted, then a space is being formed with which a healthy person, in my opinion, will not want to have anything in common.
Since I believe that an extremely important task of a modern and developing state with a high share of social spending and social support should be informational support for its population - this support should also come from the media. They must bring to the masses a healthy, fresh stream, useful knowledge, a beautiful picture, aesthetically form the image of the state that we want to see.
I think that some kind of negative analytics (besides the fact that it should get rid of the musty spirit that is taking place now) should partly go to the pages of specialized publications, partly go to the media not in prime time and on special channels.
Society is very sensitive to a high degree of environmental toxicity - in such an environment there will be more suicides, alcoholism, depressive disorders, life will be deprived of dreams and there will be fewer births - business and social activity of people will also be suppressed by such an atmosphere. Turning it into a positive is not easy, but in general it is possible.
Reorientation and career guidance
The breakthrough needed for the country would require a significant number of young professionals whose minds and abilities would be more suited to these tasks than what they are doing now.
There are a lot of people around who do not work in their specialty, who received any kind of parasitic education. Within the modest trends that we are seeing now - their potential abilities can be practically not used, of course, not all, but many of them can be “nail-driving microscopes”.
It is worth using the Soviet experience of professional reorientation - but creatively reworking and comprehending it in modern reality.
In the direction of specialties critical for the plan, it is necessary to establish a flexible selection according to personal qualities and abilities - and spare no expense to retrain such specialists.
In the future, state analysts should work on forecasts for the labor market and, through a system of free clubs and the modernization of school education, involve capable people in future professional development already from high school.
Thus, I believe that for a successful breakthrough, we, among other things, must again become one of the flagships of world pedagogy and education - but specifically in this area, we must become the absolute leader in the development and implementation of flexible professional retraining methods.
Full-time, part-time, remote, supported by video and relevant, intelligible materials for self-education - all these are the most important areas of education.
I believe that the state should at least compensate people for part of the funds for training - as a maximum, create conditions in which advanced training and reorientation will be within the framework of comfortable economic costs for a working person.
Youth policy, social sphere, medicine
The limited volume of the article does not allow mentioning all the interesting aspects.
The social part of the budget is supposed to be large, but for the initial period (3-5 years) it will have to be partly sacrificed for the sake of building up good rates (with some drop in state funding).
With an increase in the numerical values of the budget, with the growth of the economy, large amounts will be allocated to finance these areas, in the future the percentage of diverted funds from government spending (for the Fund) will decrease, the percentage of social spending will increase (since the state's contributions to the Fund will be tied to specific figures, not a percentage of the budget).
The state will have to extract from somewhere (in the second or third year of the plan) considerable funds for the training of personnel, space and programs, for the free leisure of childhood and youth (by the 7th or 8th year of the plan).
These and many other questions can be deepened in an additional article of the series, if there is interest.
Legislative policy
The existing legislative framework needs to be reworked in order to cut off vestiges, lobbying, excessive twisting and backdoors.
The law is the more readily fulfilled, the simpler, clearer and more intuitively justified it is.
We need laws that create a system that is quite comfortable for work and sufficiently convenient for reporting and transparency of activities, which will promote the development of creative private entrepreneurship within the country.
Everything that generates income and creates jobs, everything that consumes domestic resources and technologies to create a useful and competitive product for internal and external needs should be supported at the legislative level.
Speculative entrepreneurship should be deprived of these legislative advantages, but the state should not interfere with it in case of transparency and accountability.
I believe that we need to increase penalties for tax evasion and economic crimes, while at the same time we need to reduce the costs of the judicial system, expand the practice of suspended sentences and fines for minor offenses.
One could write a lot here - but in short, the idea sounds like this: a person who is unequivocally dangerous to society in the most direct sense of the word should sit behind bars.
It makes no sense to imprison for economic crimes of small / medium gravity - fines, a suspended sentence, corrective labor, a ban on traveling abroad, a ban on further work with large funds, etc. should be applied.
For a greater degree of severity - confiscation of property, a detailed study of the income and property of relatives, landing, finally.
Participants in economic crimes are also interesting because, due to their abilities and inclinations, they can be useful for improving the shortcomings of the existing legislative framework. In the case of cooperation of such an offender with the authorities and a detailed description of the mechanism of the offense, using a hole in the legislation, it is possible to cut off his term up to a complete replacement with a conditional one.
The punitive instruments of the state do not exist in order to break people's lives - the task of these instruments is to neutralize frankly unhealthy, harmful elements of society, indicate the path of correction and give a second chance to those who do not reach this value.
Inflation
Article No. 2 indicates a completely outrageous figure for our inflation over the past 20 years. This figure is 9-10 times higher than inflation in the developed countries around us.
Having such a level of it, we will not go far - it will be impossible to stably accumulate funds in the national currency, freely conduct business, and predictably take loans.
Curbing inflation to record low, steadily declining levels is a major construction challenge, beyond demographics.
The main factors of inflation in our country, first of all, are the rise in the cost of resources, high lending and deposit rates, inept monetary policy, large-scale withdrawal of funds abroad, extensive intermediary schemes where this is of no practical use. Secondly, this is a decrease in consumption, a drop in production, and so on.
Yes, economists will forgive me for such simplifications - it is important for me to catch the root of the problem.
The root of the problem, as I see it, is a combination of high lending rates, lack of healthy price compensation for internal resources, within the state (due to external supplies, by reducing the excess profits of the extractive industries), an ideal environment for speculation and mediation (existing due to the low information culture and "Byzantine" legislation).
The decrease in consumption takes place due to the fall in the income level of the population and the general predictability of life.
Inept monetary policy is a complex factor, I do not presume to discuss the degree of its influence: it is speculatively large, since all of the above can be safely written here.
Finally, the withdrawal of funds abroad is a separable factor. As the above mentioned decrease, this trend will also decrease - but it will not completely disappear.
To effectively combat it, the state must operate with statistics and improve legislation, on the one hand, stimulating the involvement of outgoing capital in the country's economy, on the other hand, complicating such a withdrawal of funds through economic or legislative mechanisms. Knut and gingerbread, as it is.
Accordingly, the creation of large funds with minimal loan rates for activities useful to the state is a solution.
Price retention (in the first 3-5 years of the plan at least, in the future, prices for internal resources for the consumer may increase in proportion to the growth of the economy) by all domestically produced resources.
Statistical portals indicate that at the current pace, our resources will last for 70 years (gas), 30 years (oil), 350 years (coal) - all this taking into account external sales.
Thus, within the framework of the plan for our own needs (and taking into account the strategy of moving away from energy exports), we have more than enough own resources - this is our advantage.
In the case of sales abroad, the price for the domestic consumer should be compensated taking into account the optimal forecasts of consumption growth - to a fixed value or close to it.
The same, but to a somewhat lesser extent (depending on the size of explored reserves) should also apply to other resources produced in the country - for the domestic consumer, all this should be sold at the maximum fixed price.
Space for competitive growth of our industry
Success rests on the advantages - our advantages are significant reserves of our resources, cheap generation, the benefits from which can be increased (due to the cold climate), significant potential for hydro generation, well-developed technologies for building nuclear power plants.
All this distinguishes us favorably from importing countries - both resources and energy resources for generation and heating.
At the moment, we have a fairly low cost of labor - but also low labor productivity and innovation. Our production culture is also not ideal - all this cannot be called our advantages.
Our scientific potential maybe our advantage (and we need to do everything possible for this), because we still have a fairly strong scientific school and many talented minds - less "gluttonous" than their Western counterparts.
Own chemical industry (and resources for it) and agriculture - there are also I can be to a greater extent by our advantages (compared to importing countries).
Thus we have all objective conditions for creating competitive products and occupying a good part of the global niche. To do this, we just need to make access to these advantages of internal residents as clear as possible, promote legislative and informational business activity, and inject significant funds into science.
Having ensured stable playing conditions in the above areas, created low-interest funds and state-level information support-analytics, we are doomed to success.
Social and Economic Development Fund
The most controversial, but at the same time the most necessary, in my opinion, part of the article.
It is difficult to outline this idea briefly - article No. 5 may be needed to clarify and develop a number of issues.
Specifically on this issue, it would be very interesting for me to read the opinion of economists in the comments - because I see it as effective, although, perhaps, there are pitfalls there.
Russia has 80 (83) million able-bodied population. This figure is approximate due to unemployment, etc. So the calculation here will be quite approximate and brief.
Officially, the average salary in our country is 51 thousand rubles. Of course, this is a reason to smile. Empirically, I would be more inclined towards the figure of 25 thousand rubles.
The bottom line is that we will not take the largest funds for development and demography from anywhere except from these 80 million people. This is a sad thought, but at the same time quite interesting.
Suppose each worker will allocate 2 rubles in taxes to the FSR per month in the form of taxes. In a year, we have a figure of almost 2 trillion rubles.
Two trillion.
To better understand the scale of this figure, our budget in 2020 was 20,2 trillion rubles. That is, in a year, able-bodied citizens can thus generate about 10% of the country's annual budget.
This is a huge amount of money that can and should be used as a basis for the modernization and development of the state.
This figure can be scattered in the form of a progressive tax - to a lesser extent for those whose salary is less than 25 thousand rubles, to a greater extent - for those who have it above 40-50.
Perhaps it would be reasonable to withdraw part of this amount from pensions at the beginning of the plan (1-3 years) - according to the author's estimates, this is an amount of about 300 rubles per month.
Before being indignant: I suggest everyone to think about whether such a price is high for the state to get out of its current situation - into a position of successful growth.
Are you personally ready you would pay this price?
Primarily, this money is of interest from the point of view of an incredibly important demographic support program (the support program will be indicated below, for convenience).
The second pointWhat makes this fund an important, I would say, a key part of the breakthrough strategy is that loans will be issued from this fund for projects necessary for the state - housing construction, production start-ups, mortgage lending. I think that a rate of about 2% per annum for such loans would be optimal.
With the money from the income of this fund, it would be possible to expand housing construction that contributes to the "Housing Support for Young Families" program (separately and below).
It is worth noting that the fund itself, over the 10 years of its existence, would have accumulated a colossal amount of about 20 trillion rubles from contributions from workers alone.
State investments in this fund at the first stage (3-5 years) from the budget should also be significant (and comparable with the investments of workers).
This can be achieved by somewhat optimizing budget spending - that is, by reducing the percentages of a number of its items by small values. In total, in the first years it will be necessary to allocate about 8-9% of the budget for this.
It is important to understand that any jerk requires resources.
Extraction of resources for a breakthrough - occurs always. Even in perfect design and with perfect planning, within 3-5 years from the start of the plan - this particular fund can negatively affect the income side of citizens. It's worth recognizing.
However, let's think - what would be the advantages of such a scenario?
For starters, we would be able to bring inflation down to record low levels over a period of more than a year and stabilize intra-market prices. Something would be cheaper. That is, in numerical terms, wages would “lose weight”, but with this money one could buy a comparable basket.
We would start a process of large-scale job creation and housing construction - the unemployment rate in society would fall, the earnings of specific people outside the first year period would begin to grow, as price fixing for domestic resources would stimulate production and consumption.
In the future, over the course of 3-5 years, these processes would develop and strengthen - our budget would begin to grow, foreign economic and tax revenues in the budget itself would begin to increase.
In percentage terms, with low inflation, the population would also begin to grow - and the longer such a fund existed, the less noticeable against the background of the success of its activities would be the inconvenience of investing in it.
Housing support for young families
This point is inextricably linked with the previous one, since it is both a consequence of the social line of the state and the involvement of part of the funds from the fund.
To begin with, I will outline the introductory ones - a 12-storey building with an underground garage, for 72 person-families, according to the author's calculations, appeared at a price of 350 million rubles.
Nominally - 300+, but in fact, a solid fat was included in the calculation, providing for various force majeure. The calculations were based on this data.
The author allowed himself to reduce the number of storeys to a more aesthetically acceptable one, the extra materials inside the conditional project can be used to improve the quality of the model object (structural strength, size of balconies, room parameters, sound insulation).
All this is purely theoretical data needed for approximate estimation here and in the future.
This is one of the potential examples of public housing construction. If you like, this is a model object for most of the country's territory, where it makes sense to build a typical building.
Now imagine that in a similar house we give out a 2-room apartment all young families (provided they provide some simple package of documents) for life rent (with the possibility of mortgage redemption in the future) at 5 thousand rubles a month (excluding water, electricity, etc.).
Families with more than one child move into such houses in 3-room apartments on exactly the same conditions - 5 thousand rubles. In the input above, the price of such an apartment will appear - in the region of 5 million rubles.
We will need this important parameter below.
The amount of a monthly mortgage at 2% per annum for the purchase of such housing (not rent) (for 20 years) is about 30 thousand rubles. This is a heavy sum, but it will become less heavy the more the economy grows.
Families that have paid off the mortgage become classic homeowners - they can sell it, leave it as a legacy, rent it out, etc.
Renting families cannot do this accordingly, but in all other respects their rights are equivalent to the rights of owners, since this is a lifetime lease.
You ask me - what is the benefit of the state in this case?
At first, we are lifting a huge burden off the shoulders of thousands of young families trying to combine the current mortgage burden with the birth of 1 or more children. We really make their life easier, along the way giving stability and faith in tomorrow, the opportunity to focus on education, professional growth, raising children, etc.
Secondly, we create a mechanism that allows attract such families to regions of interest to the state and future industrial clusters.
ThirdlyFrom the point of view of consumption, we tremendously expand the consumer opportunities of such families - as we expand the area available to them, free up part of their finances, etc. They stimulate the economy with their growing consumption.
Fourthly, this measure is one of the pillars of solving our demographic problem.
Fifth, finally, the state will set a high standard for housing construction, which have match the market participants in private construction.
The funds obtained in this way from the lease can be directed directly to the improvement of the territories adjacent to the houses, the total funds for the areas of such houses can be transferred to the creation of infrastructure, among other things.
Demographic support program (key point)
In short, every child born from two citizens of the Russian Federation and on the territory of the Russian Federation by birth receives a closed bank account, to which 10 thousand rubles are received monthly, until they reach their 20th birthday.
In total, during this time, 2 million 400 thousand rubles will go to such an account - or almost half of the above figures for the cost of housing (2-room apartment).
The author counted and counted - the organization of this quite real, it is directly tied to the above fund.
The advantage of such a scheme will be that it will allow the country to have an ever-increasing money box for the growth and development of the economy, for financing low-interest loans.
After all, 20-year-old children will not need these funds! Upon reaching the age of 20 - this money is available in the form of a certificate that compensates for the specified amount in the purchase of housing. Since the cost of housing will vary within certain limits, this will automatically allow each young member of society at the age of 20 to be entitled to 1/3-1/2 apartments.
As you understand, in the case of young families, their certificates can be combined, and you can immediately get an apartment in ownership, with insignificant contributions to the territorial equivalent.
Or a person saves the rest of the amount - and the certificate is spinning this time inside the economy, making a profit.
The benefits of this scheme for demographic growth are enormous.
Parents will not need to rack their brains about where their growing backbiters will go for an independent life. Young citizens themselves will have the opportunity to join the economic life of the country early enough with full rights, start a family without unnecessary difficulties and focus more on work and education.
In 20 years from the start of this program, the number of able-bodied, economically active population will increase annually by 1-1,5 million people, that is, more funds will flow into the fund.
The fund itself has been unclaimed for 20 years and serves the economy, development and construction.
After this period, 7,2 trillion rubles will leave the fund annually (over a period of 20 years, the fund itself will accumulate and operate on an economy scale in the amount of about 76 trillion rubles (half of which will be provided by the contribution of workers, half by budget allocations).
During this time, the budget itself will grow at least 3 times - up to 60 trillion rubles, which will further reduce the percentage burden of deductions on the budget itself (for comparison: we can point out that over the 20-year period (2000-2020) 8 times, the Turkish economy - 4,5 times).
This growth was not based on 2% lending and the scale of state support that I am talking about.
To stimulate the personal development of the child, it is possible (and necessary) to introduce bonus payments that go to this fund from the state for successful studies, voluntary service in the Armed Forces, admission to a university, participation in sections, etc.
Let these be small payments - this is a good propaganda move, showing that the fate of a person is not indifferent to the state.
Large-scale housing construction
Since demography and economic development are our cornerstone, at the junction we see the need for large-scale housing construction under the control of the state.
The state forms a project (an example with a model object is indicated above), which includes a fairly good margin potential in its price. The state monitors the minimum fluctuations in prices for domestically produced resources. The state is one of the largest customers.
Private traders are building - since the scale of work is huge, competition between them will be significant, and depending on this, the state will distribute tenders and increase the credit admission of these contractors to the fund. That is, there will be a "credit of trust".
Requests for housing construction will be formed within a complex queuing scheme.
First, the state forms a draft plan that considers the desired distribution of demography within the country for a period of 20–40 years (taking into account regions that are convenient for living and regions that can be made so within the specified time frame).
Then the state, through the consulting bureaucracy, conveys this draft plan to the business community, which adjusts this plan or its business projects depending on the best compromise that combines the convenience of production and business and access to labor.
Then the state once again reviews the entire plan, taking into account these wishes - after which it approves its final version with the most economically active persons involved.
In the future, the main plan is a refinement and addition to this option.
It is worth noting that, as such, the plan will be worked out by the analytical community for a period much longer than 40 years. By itself, business will only help form the core of the implementation of this plan - future large and rich industrial agglomerations.
A model object inside a building exists not as a model of construction, but as a format for a basic designated level of comfort, i.e., a social standard for settlement.
I see it as such a 12-storey building with an underground garage and ample outdoor area. Accordingly, taking into account climatic zones and smaller / larger storey construction, it will be necessary to develop a fairly wide list of typical projects based on this model (in the economics of calculations) - and providing for fairly wide opportunities for aesthetic modernization and refinement.
Offhand, in the first 10 years of the plan, it will be necessary to provide housing for about 5-10 million people. This means that we are dealing with figures of the order of 35-72 thousand houses, or about 8 thousand houses per year (this construction is approximately equivalent to 2,8 trillion rubles a year), when calculating the cost of a 12-storey building as 350 million rubles.
This figure is quite consistent with the available size of the fund, which provides for about 3,7 trillion rubles of income per year (approximately in half: from working citizens and from the state budget).
Within this construction, a limited share (about 2-4 million apartments over 10 years) will be allocated for rent - other housing will be built under a 2% mortgage.
The next 10 years, housing construction will have to be expanded - but at this stage we will already get a solid leverage in the form of a developing regional business that can be involved in partial financing of such development, as well as a numerically increasing budget and well-being of people.
Government structure
First of all, the state apparatus must become extremely economical.
I believe that modern democracy is unnecessarily cumbersome, inefficient and gluttonous for our country - the people's deputies sitting in the Duma, for the most part, people are not ideal, in terms of meeting the scale of the tasks assigned to them, who got to this place not due to their professional qualities and their ability " solve problems effectively”, and as a result of using their media exposure, popularity, party games, etc.
This does not mean that there are no professionals there - it means that their share in the total number is negligible. This institution consumes unnecessarily resources, it needs to be replaced by two bodies.
State Party and Professional Council (GPPS) .
This is a party-professional representation in which there is a limited number of seats (for example, 25), each of which corresponds to 4% of the electorate.
Parties that have crossed the 4% threshold in elections to this council (the choice is made precisely by parties, and not by lists) receive one seat, which they are free to take a highly professional representative from their ranks, depending on the direction of activity that this particular party is considers it necessary (or declared in the elections) to improve and defend.
If the party is concerned about the state of medicine, in the GPPS it is presented as a doctor by education, of the highest class.
If a party occupies 20% of the electorate, it gets 5 “slots”, etc.
Accordingly, it can take these places by specialists from different fields. A party can replace a representative twice per mandate - with another region or another person, if the issue of interest is closed or a more pressing one appears during the lawmaking process.
Parties that collectively gain less than 4% can form an alliance by displaying a figure expressing an inter-party agreement.
The task of the GPPS will be the formation of new laws for the "Supra-Regional Parliament", the analysis of the laws proposed by the "Supra-Regional Parliament", the formation of a collective agenda for urgent resolution of issues, the processing of key requests from the teams of professional communities (represented by a specialist), debates about the budget, etc.
Roughly speaking, these people will make serious laws, in professional polemics, they will have the opportunity to influence the percentage of the budget, the flexible distribution of additional funds. Each member of the council has two deputies, one of whom is responsible for working with the requests of professional communities, the second one is responsible for establishing constructive interaction between the members of the SBAC, and if it is impossible for a member of the SSAA to attend the session, he replaces him.
No free visits are envisaged: the members of the SSAC are professionals and representatives of the parties, their task is to resolve issues as efficiently as possible, in view of this, absence from the council is an exceptional circumstance.
GPPS corrects the plan provided by analytical institutes, generates requests for them.
Supraregional Parliament (NP).
The supra-regional parliament (NP) is an assembly of deputies elected by representatives of their region. Each subsidized region has the right to provide only one deputy, neutral and donor regions can provide up to two deputies to the NP.
All this - again, should be highly professional people with higher education and proper professional qualities. The NP allows and even welcomes the arrival of the advisory bureaucracy.
Representatives of subsidized regions have the exclusive right to begin the convocation with a report on proposals for the possibility of expanding the investment attractiveness of their regions.
Deputies of the NP form laws, requests for raising funds to the region, participate in consultations on attracting businesses to the regions, expanding the plan to the regions. They also make their judgments on the legislative initiatives of the State Border Guard Service - they can reject these laws by a majority.
Each deputy of the NP receives a salary from the budget of his region. This figure is tied to the minimum wage within his region. Each deputy has up to 2 assistants.
Deputies get into the NP through intra-regional voting, respectively, being 1-2 people who have taken these places, as representatives of the most pronounced electoral strata of their region.
Roughly speaking, the Supra-Regional Parliament deals with the involvement of its regions in the plan, interacts with big business from inside and outside the country, interested in affairs in this region.
A deputy of the NP, re-elected by the majority to his place, receives the right to become the head of the region upon the termination of his powers in the NP (the corresponding powers of the heads of regions last twice as long as the powers of deputies).
There are also regional parliaments that have the right to request a report from a representative of the region and participate in the formation of the agenda for it.
Cultural policy
Significant funds in modern times are extracted from the film, game and sound industries.
Not only does this product create a “feeling of quality of life”, it is a guide to the world of culture of the producing country, it also means good foreign exchange earnings from rental, it is also the promotion of the country abroad, the creation of its image.
Thus, it is obvious to me that if we want to be a superpower, we will need to invest qualitatively different means in the production of cultural products, to make them much more qualitative and competitive. Create masterpieces that sink into the soul.
The state should not only spare no money for this - the mechanisms for distributing these funds should be simple and clear, the product itself should be profitable.
Losing product - leaves the evolutionary arena, making room for profitable.
We need to end the production of "not for everyone" cinema - we need normal, high-quality commercial cinema. Mechanisms for state financing and all kinds of informational or even tax support for start-ups capable of creating such a highly competitive product should be formed.
Only the creation of a large-scale environment that supports such initiatives will allow us not only to preserve and convey our culture, but also to modernize it.
Cultural policy is an inseparable part of the information policy aimed at a new, creative beginning and the progress of society.
State idea, ideology
But she is not!
The only idea that should be in everyone's minds is the desire to finally, after a crazy bunch of years, lead the country to the flourishing of culture, business activity, living standards, prosperity and science.
To make the country loved and understandable, the state to be caring and wise. It is reasonable to be proud of objective successes and growth, to feel part of this progress.
Alliances and allies
Starting a series of articles, I thought that at the end I would outline the fork of our development from three possibilities - independent development, "Union 2.0" (superstate), movement towards becoming a competitor of the EU.
Having reached the last article, through the numbers and reflections on these numbers, I understand that, although these options have their value and even meaning, at the moment it is incorrect to talk about all but the first one.
Because for the leader of Union 2.0 we are too imperfect, for competition with the EU, in this case, we are too small demographically, much less than we would like.
All this inevitably led me to the idea that at the present historical period and until 2060 without the implementation of all of the above, we no profitable options other than to start doing it all.
And in the future, if everything was fine, we will not need these options.
I admit (and even more - I would like it) that a number of our neighboring states - members of the former USSR will be interested in the closest integration with us. As we progress, the more so. But to associate these successes with fact integration is an illusion.
It is necessary to ripen before qualitative changes. Every society should grasp their need, their benefit. This cannot be forced, it is unreasonable to push through the elites. This should want to the people themselves. Every time.
Migration issue
I think the current migration policy is appalling.
In any case, we will need a certain amount of foreign labor (in the first 3-5 years), but we absolutely do not need to distribute Russian citizenship right and left.
In granting citizenship, we should (in my opinion) follow a policy of proportionality. Now in society there is a certain ethno-religious proportional composition: 79,83% are Russians, 3,8% are Tatars, 2% are Ukrainians, Bashkirs-Chuvash-Chechens - ~ 1% each, and so on.
All these nationalities can be conditionally divided according to religious and cultural grounds - and in this case we will get a percentage proportion, quoting the granting of citizenship on an ethno-religious basis.
To some, this idea may seem bad - but the author only points out that the percentage of representatives of cultures and confessions in society must be kept at natural for the country level. Otherwise, we will get an atypical increase in tension on interethnic grounds, in completely unexpected regions.
The calculation indicates that until 2060 we not we will be able, relying on purely demographic forces, to increase the population by 60 million. We will have to attract about 10-20 million people.
We have an opportunity for this - a significant proportion of the Russian-speaking population outside the country. These people - with their money, skills - we can and must attract, including preferential granting of citizenship, preferential mortgages, better conditions for doing business and a better social program than our neighbors. In case of success in this field, these citizens will invest in the country's economy and in the fund.
As our economy grows, we will also need to involve the minds of neighboring states. We should not turn our noses up at this policy - first of all, giving preference to young, professionally necessary, Russian speakers.
The ethno-religious proportion should not be some kind of rigidly fixed criterion - but this parameter in the form of a desired one should take place and be seen in each of our decisions.
Issues of the implementation of the idea, "dekulakization", political subjectivism
Here I will try to briefly answer a number of acute questions.
This article is only trying to form an idea in a draft version that seems the most feasible and attractive to the author.
This is an open idea, and you can add to it, develop it, deepen it, or criticize it constructively.
The very idea is bоmore value after all these processes, as it becomes closer to realizability and more attractive to everyone.
The implementation of the idea is not considered in this article - since the discussion of methods can polarize our society much more than everything written together.
For the author, it is obvious that the times of the horse-checkers-expropriation remained in the glorious past of our country - the idea will be the more realistic, the less violence and abstract theory in the style of Marx-Engels in it.
The basis of this idea is purely capitalist tools that allow “by magic” to dramatically increase the needs of our market and the total standard of living - with all the positive effects that come from this for capitalist relations.
The author is impressed by much of socialism, but it is worth recognizing that market relations (albeit with a significant role of the state as an analyst, planner and responsible for the social sphere) are intuitively much more understandable to the majority of the population and much more accessible for borrowing from someone else's experience that is interesting to us, than the experience of socialist construction (to put it bluntly: a rare bird with it has flown to our days).
Thus, I would be very grateful if readers who adhere to established leftist beliefs would not try to attach elements to the above agenda that are unusual for it.
Finale
The article turned out to be long, and still something will be missed. Much is debatable.
Actually, this cycle was originally conceived behind - I had a desire to find a thread that could pull our country onto the line of successful growth and development in this century, discover it myself, with the help of readers, find it in search, disputes, reflections, compromises.
I would be very grateful to you, dear readers, if you spread the link to this article among your friends and acquaintances - the more people participate in the discussion, the more attractive the idea is, the more likely it is that some of this can influence existing trends for the better.
I remain open to questions and discussion. In the event that there are a lot of questions in the comments to this article on any parts of this article, perhaps I will make an article number 5, explaining them or deepening them.
Thanks to my readers for their remarkable patience, and to the Military Review team for the opportunity to publish this rather big work and prompt editing!
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