Military Review

"Kazakh winter": where did the CIS members look?

"Kazakh winter": where did the CIS members look?

About nothing in St. Petersburg

Because of the events in Kazakhstan, there really were many times more questions at once, and at the same time, as one might expect, there were fewer and fewer answers. And this was already noticeable on December 28 in the northern capital of Russia - St. Petersburg.

It was there that the last summit of the leaders of 10 countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, once named the heir and successor of the USSR, took place. In St. Petersburg, officials gathered, let's say, not from the first row, and they obviously did not expect such a surprise, which January 2022 in Kazakhstan presented to everyone just a week later.

And there was nothing concrete in the decisions of the St. Petersburg Forum. As there were no substantive decisions themselves. At the same time, the parties assured each other of almost brotherly mutual feelings, and reiterated their intentions to develop interstate cooperation.

It seems that this forum itself was organized, at the initiative of Moscow, only in order to demonstrate, albeit indirectly, to the outside world the very existence of such an interstate institution as the CIS. But none of the countries represented at this forum expressed support for the "Russian red lines".

Nor was there any collective concern over the current situation in Russia's relations with the European Union, the United States and NATO. And this despite the fact that most of the countries participating in the forum - Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Tajikistan - participate, along with Russia, not only in the CIS, but also in the CSTO and the EAEU.

Unfortunately, the mechanisms of the CIS since the time of its proclamation remain ephemeral, declarative, and therefore do not bind anyone to anything. Suffice it to say that the declaration on the creation of the CIS and related documents (1991-1994) do not envisage, for example, the refusal of the participating countries to participate in the EU, but most importantly - in NATO and any other military-political blocs.

Cases and declarations

The rapprochement of all ex-Soviet countries with these blocs has been developing since the beginning of the 90s and is still developing, but within the framework of the CIS, these trends have not been discussed and are still not discussed. Let us recall that for almost all the 90s the Russian side also, albeit not too publicly, aspired to NATO membership.

Is it because, not only during that period, but also in the early 2000s, the leadership of the Russian Federation was in no hurry to designate any "red lines" in relation to other countries of the near abroad. Although after the bombing of Yugoslavia, it was high time to draw them.

Only in 2004 did the accession of the Baltic states to NATO provoke an official negative reaction, but among the countries of the Commonwealth and the CSTO - only in Russia. The same situation is with the reaction to the increasingly active rapprochement with NATO and the EU of countries such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

In the same vein - the continuing situation with the recognition by the CIS countries of the Russian status of Crimea: it is officially recognized - in the CIS region - only by Kyrgyzstan. In turn, the separation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia, in the status of independent countries, is still recognized in the post-Soviet space only by Russia.

But the aforementioned changes in the political geography of these CIS countries were not discussed in advance either within the framework of the Commonwealth or within the framework of the CSTO. As a result, Ukraine and Georgia left the CIS. Plus, the structures of the Commonwealth do not in any way affect the solution of issues related to the settlement of the Transnistrian problem.

All this, taken together, "alienates" Moldova from the CIS. In addition, Moldovan President M. Sandu did not receive an invitation to the St. Petersburg summit of the CIS-2021 - despite the fact that Moldova still has observer status in the EAEU. So Chisinau can also leave.

History with geography

As for the trade and economic segment, let us note, for example, that since the beginning of the 2010s there has been a free trade zone of the CIS (8 countries). And what? - Russia and many other countries of this zone often "exchange" mutual trade sanctions, but these issues also remain largely outside the prerogatives of the specialized structures of the CIS.

These structures hardly have real levers of influence on the foreign economic policy of the member states within the Commonwealth. In addition, according to TASS,

“In the FTA agreement (2011), Russia retains about 100 export duties on trade with the countries participating in that zone: these are duties or other restrictions, including on the main goods of Russian export - oil and / or oil products, natural gas , untreated wood, non-ferrous metals, cement, a range of chemicals, alcohol. "

The same situation with the aforementioned norms in other countries of the zone. For example, the same Kazakhstan retains at least 30 exemptions from the free trade regime in the CIS. That is, it retains duties, including on oil, gas, wool, aluminum, and some types of chemical fertilizers.

Tajikistan retains duties and restrictions on more than 10 commodity items, including meat products, most types of fruits, cotton fiber, aluminum, and hides.

Belarus, in turn, retains about 10 “duty” positions in exports to other FTA countries: for example, potash fertilizers, untreated timber, a number of types of oil products and chemicals. Moreover, the goods mentioned are also the main ones in the export of these countries to the near and far abroad.

Only Armenia and Moldova have completely abandoned export duties under the Commonwealth FTA. It is obvious that in this area there is a very significant contrast with the free trade regime in the European Union or in the North American free trade zone (USA, Canada, Mexico).

Has the CIS done its job?

Is it necessary to explain that the real possibilities of the Russian Federation in upholding the notorious "red lines" by no means in the least depend on the collective position of the CIS - at least in the CSTO. But, again - in the context of the same factors - is no collective position on this strategic issue foreseen yet?

According to the professor at the University of Cologne Gerhard Simon,

“With the help of the CIS, we managed to organize a more or less peaceful division of the Soviet Union into independent states. So the CIS has already done everything it could.

And its possibilities are limited. The CIS did not even try to solve really important problems - for example, conflicts between Russia and Georgia, Russia and Ukraine, energy supply issues. The Commonwealth is not even ready to talk about these topics. "

It is obvious that the aforementioned flaws in the legal and political-economic structure of the CIS are also used by the United States. So, according to the political scientist, retired Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Vasily Korchmar,

“We do not know how to work like the Americans and some other Western countries in the CIS countries. Maybe many do not know, but the US ambassadors in the CIS countries have a fund, it is very huge. This fund is used to support politicians, various local foundations, and non-governmental organizations. We lost to Ukraine, Georgia, the situation is the same in Moldova: there will be a further tilt towards the European Union and the United States. The US is already in command there, as in Georgia and Ukraine. "

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  1. your vsr 66-67
    your vsr 66-67 11 January 2022 15: 06
    This CIS smelled like a dead thing back in the days of an alcoholic!
    1. Civil
      Civil 11 January 2022 15: 20
      1. All these CIS countries were created by local national elites on the basis of Russophobia.
      2. For 30 years Russia has not offered the CIS countries an attractive model of economic development and the creation of a society of the future based on it.
      3. At the same time, Russia has brought to the CIS new ways of preserving autocratic regimes. Which, however, is better than chaos with a civil war, since the majority of the population of the CIS countries is unable to co-organize into a modern society.
      1. Alexey Sommer
        Alexey Sommer 11 January 2022 15: 33
        Quote: Civil
        At the same time, Russia brought to the CIS new ways to preserve autocratic regimes.

        And what about the last elections in the United States with massive fraud and the storming of the Capitol? Gerontocracy with striking elements of a fascist dictatorship?
        1. Civil
          Civil 11 January 2022 15: 54
          Quote: Alexey Sommer
          And what about the last elections in the United States with massive fraud and the storming of the Capitol? Gerontocracy with striking elements of a fascist dictatorship?

          These are their problems. Russia and the surrounding countries are more important.
          I don't know what you have there in the States, but our house manager is a friend of a man.
          1. Alexey Sommer
            Alexey Sommer 11 January 2022 16: 30
            Quote: Civil
            These are their problems. Russia and the surrounding countries are more important.

            But below is your quote using the stamp "autocracy"
            Quote: Civil
            At the same time, Russia brought to the CIS new ways to preserve autocratic regimes.

            Who are you comparing with, may I ask a question?
        2. Ingvar 72
          Ingvar 72 11 January 2022 15: 55
          Quote: Alexey Sommer
          Gerontocracy with striking elements of a fascist dictatorship?

          As with us, and as in practically all the republics of the CIS.
          The elites have divided resources and are pumping nationalist sentiments with only one goal - to preserve power.
          1. Alexey Sommer
            Alexey Sommer 11 January 2022 16: 27
            Quote: Ingvar 72
            As with us, and as in practically all the republics of the CIS.

            Let's be specific?
            Joe Biden 20 November 1942
            Donald Trump June 14, 1946
            Vladimir Putin October 7, 1952
            Yes, Putin is not a young man, but he will give odds to many 40-year-olds.
            And Biden, even from a distance, does not pull the young man.)
            1. Kronos
              Kronos 11 January 2022 18: 06
              Has Biden been running the country for 20 years, or is this his first presidential term?
              1. Sergey Z.
                Sergey Z. 11 January 2022 18: 34
                Is it okay that Biden has been in power since 1970 ?! (became a senator) Their senator and ours are two big differences.
    2. paul3390
      paul3390 11 January 2022 16: 11
      The CIS was created with one single purpose - to take out the brains of the peoples of the former republics with some kind of illusion like the USSR ... At the time of the 90s - this was very important, but by the 2000s - it had finally turned into a naked shnyaga.
    3. ANB
      ANB 11 January 2022 18: 57
      ... This CIS smelled like a dead thing back in the days of an alcoholic

      The CIS was originally a lie, with the aim of deceiving the population of the USSR. We save the Union type, but in a different form.
  2. Ryaruav
    Ryaruav 11 January 2022 15: 07
    The CIS is a stillborn project, an empty talking shop and a waste of money on forums and bureaucrats
    1. lot
      lot 11 January 2022 16: 04
      in fact, like the Brix, the Shanghai Six, the Astana Troika.
      and the crown of the whole Union State = ace in the PR deck.
  3. yuriy55
    yuriy55 11 January 2022 15: 22
    The formal CIS has become the notoriously expected result of a formal union. Sorry, but any community is organized on the basis of mutual benefit. If EVEN the Union State of Russia and Belarus cannot take place, what can we say about an alliance with states that in fact are at war with allied countries (even with members of the CSTO) ...
    It is time to tell the truth to each other, and Russia must initiate such a dialogue. Working dialogue. With real prospects for development and cooperation, not altruistic sponsorship. What is there to talk about some kind of cooperation, if the CIS members consider the expression of the will of the inhabitants of Crimea - (I don’t know what?) And do not officially recognize it as Russian territory.
  4. Two
    Two 11 January 2022 15: 27
    Bunch of Foolish Heads ...
    1. Daniil Konovalenko
      Daniil Konovalenko 11 January 2022 16: 07
      Bunch of Foolish Heads.
      ..Community of the Beggars and the Hungry
  5. FIR FIR
    FIR FIR 11 January 2022 15: 31
    Pans, bai, gentlemen wanted freedom and fiefdoms for eternal use. And having achieved them, they certainly will not want to give them away. Agreements and summits, sheer hypocrisy, everyone wants to decide for themselves the fate of their property. And why haven’t left this project yet, so everyone uses it for their own selfish purposes. There is no question of any unification or just alliance. Only one thing is bad for Russia, that over time, all the new neighboring states pass into the camp of the enemy. This should be alarming, action should be taken.
  6. Alexey Sommer
    Alexey Sommer 11 January 2022 15: 31
    The CIS is a legitimate instrument for the soft disintegration of the USSR, not a new union.
    As the practice of today has shown, the real instrument is the CSTO.
    And that is only because the core there is Russia. But at least they learned how to manage something, so that the Kyrgyz went to the front. And this association has a chance to become the core of the USSR 2.0
    I would add North Korea and Iran here (not irony)
    DPRK ice-free ports for the Pacific Fleet, it seems to me that is important. Plus a disciplined and hardworking people.
    Iran is just a rich country, potentially. At least not a rogue with ambition and a pipe.
    The Ukrainians themselves will move to new cities with Siberian millionaires ... And they will simply become Siberians.)
  7. RoTTor
    RoTTor 11 January 2022 16: 02
    The only really working and, moreover, expanding its influence beyond the CIS, the integration structure is the Council on Railway Transport, in which Ukraine, and the entire Baltic States, and Mongolia participated until recently.
    But he also began to slip for political reasons.
  8. Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 11 January 2022 16: 04
    I remember how many conversations there were about the creation of the CIS on the part of the creators: Yes, we, yes, we will build our new world, on a new basis, the USSR was nonsense, there was a bomb in it ... Yeah, the mind was not enough to create a single economic space, they plundered whoever was in the republics .. And now, who is allowed into the EU, who is not allowed .. the only thing was enough for the CSTO to create, and even that scanty .. like the CIS itself .., I think it will die soon.
  9. rocket757
    rocket757 11 January 2022 16: 07
    “We do not know how to work, as Americans and some other Western countries work
    It means that it is necessary to change ... a lot to change or to disperse those who have sucked.
    The CSTO was also considered just a line in the protocols, but it worked ... fine.
    Everything happens for the first time, it is worth continuing and developing what has already taken place, it is working.
    1. antivirus
      antivirus 11 January 2022 17: 10
      The fate of the pogrom-mongers in Kaz was not decided by calls to Dushanbe and Tashkent from Frunze. Blocked the excitable friends.
      But the people of the CIS did not bring happiness.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 11 January 2022 18: 10
        Everything is learned in comparison, and the processes are not over yet ...
        We ourselves, all ourselves ... to blame, now, there is no one.
  10. New Year day
    New Year day 11 January 2022 16: 14
    The CIS was invented so that the collapse of the USSR was perceived as less painful and people were shoved a piece of candy - "we are still together", but in fact, under this tinsel, everyone was slowly rebuilding their "national apartments"
  11. Lesnik21
    Lesnik21 11 January 2022 16: 18
    In order to unite everyone, it is necessary to offer something that will interest everyone. Unfortunately, Russia is not a Superpower and, within the framework of the CSTO, is capable of supporting the same rulers who do not care about their people, the main thing is to retain power. And then say that 20000 terrorists from abroad attacked. If this were so, then there would be a war in Kazakhstan. The CIS with such leaders has outlived its usefulness for a long time, but we need it in order to show any organization to the world.
  12. xomaNN
    xomaNN 12 January 2022 13: 47
    Better a lame duck than a dead one No.
    The CIS is not even close to the EU or the USSR, but there is no other union. Having half-friends around the perimeter is still better than half-enemies. An example of the country U., which for a dozen years both "zeroes with cookies" and other external uncle-puppeteers + Nazis from the inside turned into an Enemy. And all day they mumble about the fact that the war from Donbass is about to spread to Ukraine. And under this muck, the people are destitute, and they don't care.
  13. UFO
    UFO 12 January 2022 14: 58
    "The Americans fled from Afgan in disgrace" is an unforgivable delusion, as with the Trojan horse. This is not Vietnam, where they left the land scorched by napalm and poisoned with orange. Here they left warehouses with weapons, military equipment and a state of trained terrorists, aimed at blowing up the whole of Central Asia and controlled from the "decision-making center", where we need to appeal with our zircons. War is like war.
  14. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 12 January 2022 15: 09
    If there is no attractive financial center in the CIS, but there is the EU, China and the United States .... then it will be so. Moreover, the Russian Federation does not demand anything for its contribution to the economy of its neighbors.
    What did we get for financial flows to the countries:

    If you know the topic, then you can find topics for more financially independent countries as:

    This is not the fault of these CIS countries, it is the fault of the Russian Federation. Officials either laundered money from the Russian Federation there with the elites, or traitors or not very smart people.