What to do next with Kazakhstan?
Yes, now we can easily say that there is a fire in the house of a neighbor (not a brother or an ally). It burns well, it burns from the heart. And now we will talk about the topic that worries everyone: what will happen next and how to deal with it.
To begin with, it is worth congratulating the great Elbasy Nazarbayev, who cowardly fled in the first hours to Moscow, and his successor, a little more brave Tokayev, that Kazakhstan, as a country, did not take place at all. Despite all the pan-Turkic games and dreams of Great Turan.
In the thirtieth year of Kazakh independence, this sad fact can be stated.
Yes, forgive me, but: if the Ministry of Internal Affairs cannot disperse the marauders, even if armed, and the army is not capable of eliminating terrorists in open confrontation, the National Security Committee somehow incomprehensibly “blinked” the presence of a huge number of terrorists in the country or even supported them ...
This is not a state from the word "absolutely".
Well, the mass escape of all government officials who had such an opportunity is only the best confirmation of this. The leaders, who did not believe in the capabilities of their own special services and security forces, flew in business jets no worse than American pilots during the combat deployment of an aircraft carrier group.
And again Russia and her soldiers were needed to restore order in the country.
Sorry, but it's a shame. And the complete failure of the leadership of Kazakhstan.
Thirty years of the "special Kazakh path", thirty years since Kazakhstan "got rid of the imperial shackles" - and at the slightest danger it became clear that there was no way without Russians again.
President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Tokayev said in his address that gangs trained abroad are operating in the country. He said, of course, without proof, but it is clear that Mr. President was a little ... nervous, because his chair was shaking.
Of course, the question arises of what the National Security Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan was doing. As I understand it, the KNB knew nothing about the gangs that were sent to the Republic of Kazakhstan. And, accordingly, they were not ready. Or, as they say today, the KNB almost supplied these gangs with everything they needed.
For some reason, the army and the Ministry of Internal Affairs were not ready either. Otherwise, how can one explain Tokayev's panicky cry "Help, save us, they are overthrowing us here"? Frightened that it will be like in Kyrgyzstan?
Today, many remember the Ukraine of 2013 and the cowardly flight of the political corpse of Yanukovych to Russia. How did Nazarbayev differ from Yanukovych, who immediately left the post of head of the country's Security Council and fled to Russia?
Yes, nothing. The reaction is the same to the point of disgrace.
Who is to blame?
Well, and the very prerequisites for unrest, who created them? USA? Bandits? Or is it the leadership of Kazakhstan?
The gas was 60 tenge. “Suddenly,” it became 120. The Minister of Energy came out on the TV screen on January 3 and said that there was no way to get the price back. The market, you know. Whoever does not fit in, goes to the steppe. Then, as a handout, they promised to reduce it to 90 tenge. Well, when they said that they would return the price of 50 tenge for residents of the Mangistau region, then it started.
So much so that Mr. Tokayev felt uneasy.
But the question arises: why did not Mr. President run to Turkey for help? With whom did he so enthusiastically paint a picture of the Pantyursk world? Why did Elbasy Nazarbayev not go to his Turkish friends, who, by the way, trained the Kazakh special forces so hard and advised the KNB?
Maybe that's why the KNB did not "consider" the threat, because the Turks trained it?
And a very unpleasant question: why did the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan not allow HIS instruments to work? Army, police, KNB?
Are all unreliable? Or the bandits and took all the posts there? Well then, these bandits, excuse me, are from Kazakhstan.
Let's face it. And facts at the same time.
Causes
First of all, it was not the most unsecured and poor regions that got on the ears: the western ones. Zhanaozen, Atyrau, Aktau. Oil production centers. Aktau and Atyrau, from the moment of the mass departure of the Russians (they were Shevchenko and Guryev, if anyone does not remember), have become directly Kazakh ethnic bastions. There they speak and think only in Kazakh.
And the bulk of the protesters are not middle class, no. The middle class, the support and foundation of the "color revolutions" all over the world, wishing to simply break into power and get something else, like the liberalization of laws, was not noticed here.
The hard workers went into the "battle". Yes, the oil industry, making good money, but they are hard workers. Let's face it, with the organization they were very so-so at first. Until the more intelligent participants really connected and transferred everything to a hotter phase.
And stability has faltered. But she staggered not because some "bandits" began to shake her, but for somewhat different reasons. Which will be able to influence the situation in the future and from an exclusively negative side.
First. Kazakhstan is a big country. The rebellious western regions are far from the capital, more than three thousand kilometers. Besides, naturally, there is “oil separatism”. That is, in the west of the RK they believe that the center is really robbing them.
Second. The moment turned out to be a good one for unrest. To announce a rise in gas prices on New Year's holidays is nonsense. There are so many unemployed and often not quite sober workers - here is the "movement" for you, which gave a very good picture for the media.
Third. Nazarbayev’s departure to the strange position of Leader of the Nation gave rise to an understanding of the duality of power in the country. It seems like there is a president, but there are also elbasy who will build the president, if anything.
Here, by the way, the very passive role of the "father of the people" Nazarbayev is very strange. In general, many have the impression that Tokayev wanted to use all this in order to get out of Nazarbayev's care, but he threw too much gasoline into the fire.
Fourth. Ethnic component. Yes, there are fewer and fewer Russians in Kazakhstan. But Moscow still (badly, as it turned out) kept its finger on the pulse. Today, many citizens of Russia who frankly do not understand the essence (including on our pages) are seriously talking about the fact that the Russian military will defend certain "external interests of the country", thereby putting kerosene on fire.
Unfortunately, today many publications such as "Svoboda" and "Dozhd" have begun to squeal about the fact that "In Kazakhstan, Russians are shooting at Kazakhs." Many others will be yelling about it tomorrow. And they will be believed, including in Kazakhstan, because Nazarbayev’s will also blocked many objectionable Russian channels and media (including Voennoye Obozreniye, by the way), while various European and Turkish channels broadcast and continue to broadcast.
Why do we need this? For what interests?
Especially considering the policy of Kazakhstan lately.
Yes, the time has come to remember the transition to the Latin alphabet, and the closure of Russian schools, and the expulsion of the Russian population from Kazakhstan. Oh yes, of course, in fact, no one was driving anyone. It's just that, for example, my relatives, now living in the Omsk region, on their own initiative decided to move to Russia from Kazakhstan, where they were born and died since 1912, when they moved there at the call of Pyotr Arkadyevich Stolypin, who began to develop virgin lands as part of his reform.
Of course, no one approached the throat with a knife. However, they know how to create conditions unsuitable for life. Some "language patrols" were worth what. It was like this, "local patriots" went and checked the level of knowledge of the Kazakh language.
Not worse than in Ukraine of 2013-2014.
So why are there appeals not to Turkey, which trains personnel and participates in the life of the Republic of Kazakhstan more and more closely, but to Russia?
Why weren't the countries named in which the militants who had threatened the existence of Tokayev's power were not named?
Why wasn’t a single such action movie shown?
Unanswered questions.
Russians are called because they do not feel sorry for them
Yesterday Nazarbayev and Tokayev deprived the Russian language of its status, began to switch to the Latin alphabet, closed schools, and survived the Russians from the country.
Today this plaintive cry "Russia, where are you, save!"
There is only one logic, and it is ruthless.
It’s not a pity to throw Russians into the crucible of an uprising, civil war, whatever. The commanders of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, KNB, and the army will not go to risk their fat bellies. Their structures will not work either.
Do not forget that Kazakhstan is a country ruled by zhuzes - analogs of Caucasian teips. And how do you imagine it, when relatives from the same zhuz will shoot at each other? And then how to live with it?
Do not take the Caucasus as an example. Everything there is somewhat differently constructed, although the teips can cling to each other's throats.
And the Russians - they are here. Come, put things in order. And then the "grateful" Kazakhs, depending on who wins, will tell their grandchildren and great-grandchildren how the Russians killed them.
And what, they tell the same about 1986? And they will talk about 2022. How the Russians came and shot at the Kazakhs who wanted justice.
Are the bai of Kazakhstan worth it? Is it worth the obviously lied President Tokayev, who was simply afraid that the rebellious people would tear him down, as they did in neighboring Kyrgyzstan? Are these neighbors, whose house was on fire, even worth it to be extinguished by those in whom they spat all this time?
Russia had no other choice. Was not at all
Kazakhstan's policy towards Russia in recent years has been simply ugly. But alas, we are not talking about the protection of some kind of "external interests", as many "hurray-patriots" spoke about, but about things of a completely different kind.
We cannot afford a civil war or something even more vile in Kazakhstan. Unfortunately, we have no way to protect the country from the consequences of such events.
The border between Russia and Kazakhstan is seven and a half thousand kilometers. Seven and a half thousand kilometers of absolutely open space. No checkpoint, no frontier post.
Here I must say a huge "thank you" to Elbasy Nazarbayev, who for thirty years of his rule literally insisted on "open" relations between the two countries. As a result, we have no border with Kazakhstan, respectively, in any case, Russia will have to extinguish fires in Kazakhstan. The Elbasy turned out to be a good safety net.
At least for the sake of preventing the fire from spreading to Russia.
Yes, an unenviable role, but alas, so far we really can't do anything about it. And therefore they are forced to send their citizens under the bullets on the territory of such a dynamically developing Republic of Kazakhstan.
By the way, where is Turkey? Who helped Kazakhstan so hard in the formation of the special services and the army? Where is the USA?
Today, some observers express surprise that the "best friends" from Turkey did not even call and offer their help.
In general, everything is natural. The strong don't call the weak. It is the weak person who is obliged to turn to the stronger one and ask for help. The exception, perhaps, is just Russia, which is always trying to save someone. Yanukovychs, Asadov, now the Nazarbayevs. There is no need to talk about gratitude, this is the way the country has. I am sure they will not be particularly grateful even in Kazakhstan itself.
By the way, for the authorities of Kazakhstan, perhaps, this will be a lesson for the future. I would like the rose-colored glasses to brighten a little in terms of the same Turkey. And it would also be nice to decide on a relatively openly Russophobic policy.
To extinguish fires in Kazakhstan - while this task fell on Russia, and how the leadership will solve it is not yet clear. In the light of recent events, it is necessary to solve a whole range of tasks, the primary of which is the creation of a normal border between Russia and Kazakhstan.
If the special services of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which have demonstrated complete helplessness in the fight against terrorism, continue to demonstrate such a high level of training, then Russia will have no choice but to organize the border with all the ensuing consequences.
Or - Kazakhstan should reconsider its policy, which in recent years smacked of clear Russophobia. But this is already on the conscience of Tokayev, who is now expected to wrest all power from Nazarbayev with all the ensuing consequences. In Astana, purges are already expected in the state apparatus, law enforcement agencies and ministries.
To be honest, there is no certainty that Tokayev will revise the programs he has approved. Kazakhstan has long since turned from Russia to Turkey, and this did not happen yesterday. And here the fault is not only of the leadership of Kazakhstan, there is also a huge share of the blame on Russia, whose openly toothless external course only leads to a decrease in influence.
They are trying to compensate for the loss of influence in the post-Soviet space by flooding the former republics of the USSR with money. More than three trillion rubles were spent in Kazakhstan for various programs, but the result?
The result is a reduction in the Russian population, a reduction in Russian schools, the deprivation of the state status of the Russian language, and so on.
But Russian rubles in the Republic of Kazakhstan are digested with great pleasure. And they will do it in the same way as in other republics that are firmly attached to the Russian wallet. After all, Russia also has a tradition of forgiving debts ...
The situation is unpleasant and with a very bad outlook
Kazakhstan is a country that will never reach the civilized level. The Zhuzes will not allow this, in any case it will be a slightly veiled Middle Ages based on clan rule. And while the clans will turn the country around, while the leaders will come up with orders named after themselves and install golden statues for themselves - Russia with its approach cannot be calm.
First of all, in spite of how the epic in Kazakhstan will end, we urgently need to consider the issue of creating a reliable border with Kazakhstan. No matter what the authorities of this country say, no matter how events turn.
Either there is a border that, if necessary, will reliably protect Russia from everything that may appear from the other side, or we will have to constantly extinguish fires in this country with the lives of our servicemen.
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