End of the year events presented by the Russian leadership ultimatum The United States has set the world's political agenda since the beginning of this year. The New Year's gift was presented by Putin and Biden, who held online talks on December 30, in which they discussed issues of security guarantees. This time, Putin was the initiator of the conversation, he had something to say and offer to Biden. Immediately after the New Year, another very interesting document appeared as a result of the conversation.
According to presidential aide Ushakov, Putin emphasized in the conversation that Moscow will “achieve results in the form of ensuring security guarantees for Russia", Biden"basically agreed with this point of view", And"Putin told Biden that Russia would behave the way the United States would behave in matters of ensuring its security", And Biden several times stressed the inadmissibility of starting a nuclear war.
White House press secretary Psaki got off with the usual phrases that Biden made it clear in the conversation Washington's readiness to take decisive measures in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and that “significant progress in the negotiations could be achieved by de-escalating the situation».
With this conversation, Putin confirmed the seriousness of the application to defend Russian national interests, that Russia is concentrating and is not going to yield to an insolent "partner."
On New Year's Eve, the leaders of the West, apparently, seriously thought about it and agreed to the signing on January 3, on the initiative of Russia, of the “Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five States possessing nuclear weapons»On the prevention of nuclear war. Thus, Putin went to meet Biden's concerns about the inadmissibility of starting a nuclear war. The concluding part of the Statement is indicative:
"We are determined to engage in constructive dialogue based on mutual respect and recognition of each other's security interests and concerns."
That is, the West is ready to recognize Russia's interests and discuss them.
The declaration of the "nuclear five" - Russia, the United States, China, Britain and France, may become the basis for Russia's planned talks with the United States, NATO and the OSCE. Some analysts believe this is an attempt by the "club of five" to decide the future world order no longer within the framework of the UN.
Reasons for exacerbating the confrontation
It seems that Moscow's decisive actions to defend its security came as a complete surprise to the West, and it has not yet decided on its tactics of relations with Russia at this stage. The reason for the sharp change in Russia's tone in defending its interests is the change in the balance of power in the world with the inevitable redistribution of spheres of influence and the establishment of a new world order. The old world with the hegemony of the United States is crumbling, and the new one has not yet been built, now is timelessness and everyone seeks to protect themselves from inevitable losses and conflicts. In this confrontation, the main focus is on the economic interests of states and unions.
The previously dominant liberal model of the world order, led by the United States, has outlived its usefulness. Leading Western countries have fallen into a severe financial and economic crisis and are looking for ways out of it. They need to develop new markets, while China and Russia are on this path and strive to develop new markets themselves. The United States does not want to see worthy rivals in the international arena and is taking steps in any way to prevent their strengthening, let alone unification into economic and even more military alliances.
Russia and China are forced to fight for their spheres of influence and sales markets, because without this they will not be able to stay on the Olympus of the great powers. Russia will have to return the Warsaw Pact space abandoned during the collapse of the Union and restore the buffer from the East European countries that was liquidated by the West. The enemy successfully mastered this space and approached the very borders of Russia, creating an unacceptable threat to its security, the country's survival makes it necessary to eliminate this threat.
The experience of relations with the West shows that he recognizes only force, and Moscow for the first time began a conversation with him from a position of strength, presenting an unacceptable ultimatum. The essence of the ultimatum is simple - move away from our borders, otherwise we will move you or create threats unacceptable to you in other pain points.
Russia can now allow to speak from a position of strength, since it has such opportunities, for the first time it has overtaken the United States in military-technical terms and can take advantage of it. These are hypersonic weapons, a submarine fleet, including autonomous nuclear torpedoes, a new generation of missiles, laser weapons and much more that they do not publicly talk about, but the Americans are guessing.
In addition, the United States has colossal internal problems - the highest inflation since the Second World War, unaffordable national debt, the elite and society are split, relations with European allies are becoming more aggravated, and China is confidently coming out on top not only in the economy, but is also preparing to compete. and in the military-technical sphere.
Involvement in the conflict between Europe and Ukraine
The December aggravation is not abating, the parties are holding consultations and meetings with allies, making statements and preparing for negotiations. The Americans proceed from the assumption that Russia will not be the first to start a military confrontation, and, most likely, they are seriously mistaken. According to the harsh statements of the Russian leadership, there is a sense of readiness, if necessary, to take the initiative. The Germans were also worried, the newspaper Bild reported that German Chancellor Scholz considers an important factor in building relations with Russia and expects to hold a meeting with Putin in January.
Speaking about the possible timing of the negotiations, Ushakov said:
"Let's see how the negotiations go, two or three rounds and then we will draw conclusions."
That is, Russia is not going to conduct long negotiations and wait for the US decision. The dates have already been set: January 9-10 negotiations in Geneva with the United States, January 12 negotiations in Brussels with NATO and January 13 negotiations in Vienna with the OSCE. The schedule of negotiations is very tough, while the Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, upon presenting the ultimatum, said that a month would be given for its consideration, it expires on January 14, while everything is going according to the schedule.
The actions of the parties are now diametrically opposite - the United States seeks to drag out and chatter the negotiations without making any decision, while Russia insists on an early decision and the signing of binding documents. Moscow won the first victory, drawing Washington into dialogue, now it is necessary to force the Americans to the required result, explaining that otherwise, as Putin said, a military-technical response awaits.
In the confrontation between Russia and the United States, the Americans assigned the unenviable role of a bargaining chip to Ukraine, no one is going to fight for it, it acts as a decoy for provocations of Russia. To solve its financial and economic problems, the United States needs to subjugate the European market, one of the most capacious in the world. They can do this by becoming the main supplier of energy resources. The Americans need to create such a situation that the European countries themselves give up the energy resources of Russia and reorient themselves to the United States.
Such a trigger should be Ukraine, with the help of which it is possible to provoke Russia to unleash a military conflict and declare it a devil of hell, ready to invade Europe, and, taking advantage of this, lower the iron curtain on the Russian borders. They are trying to scare the Europeans with the Russian threat, emphasizing in every possible way the aggressiveness and unpredictability of Russia, provoking it to escalate the conflict in Ukraine and creating the image of unceremonious Russians, ready for any adventure, so that the Europeans shudder from a possible Russian invasion. In addition, the introduction of a de facto blockade and isolation of Russia, according to the Washington strategists, will lead to economic and political tension in the country and will contribute to the removal of the current leadership from power.
With the tightening of Moscow's position and its readiness to take extreme measures in Washington, they began to fear the complete loss of the Ukrainian bridgehead without the desired effect and began to restrain the Kiev authorities. After negotiations with Putin, Biden called back Zelenskiy on January 2, as usual - in general terms he promised support, but reminded of the need to implement the Minsk Agreements, and the talks between representatives of Russia, Germany and France held in Moscow on January 6 within the framework of the Normandy format took place without Ukraine. Kiev was taken out of the brackets, in any case it is a played card, when a military conflict unleashes without options, it will suffer defeat with inevitable occupation and denazification, and when Washington signs a Russian ultimatum, Ukraine is exchanged and goes under full control of Russia.
Consolidation of allies in Southeast Asia and Latin America
It should be noted that the confrontation between the United States and Russia cannot be considered in isolation from the confrontation between the United States and China, which is the primary threat to the Americans and a problem for them in shaping the future world order. The attempts of Biden's team to intimidate Putin with a Chinese threat on the Russian borders did not have any result, during 2021 Russian-Chinese relations only strengthened, and the Chinese leader recently said that relations between the two countries are more than allied.
It did not work to tear Russia away from China, so the Americans considered the option of tying Russia up with a military conflict in Ukraine, closing the European market and preventing a strategic Russian-Chinese alliance. Of course, the economic potential of Russia with the Chinese is simply not comparable, but China needs what Russia does not and does have - a huge military-technical potential and scientific and technical intelligence of specialists, as well as a common enemy of the United States, which pushes them to mutually beneficial union. Consolidation of markets and transport infrastructure will also be important to significantly increase the overall economic potential. At the same time, Russia should not lose its subjectivity with a possible Chinese economic takeover, the economies should not merge, but mutually integrate with the division of spheres of influence and jointly resist the hegemony of the United States.
In this regard, the United States, in addition to Europe, began to orient itself towards Southeast Asia, creating there an Anglo-Saxon alliance consisting of the United States, England and Australia, capable of organizing opposition to China. Russia is also "spilling" this region, negotiating with the leaders of the leading countries. At the end of November, negotiations were held with the head of Vietnam, who said:
"We are trying very hard to resolve issues that interest the Russian side."
In December, negotiations with the head of India, a meeting with the head of Iran has already been announced for January 19, and the visit of the head of Indonesia to Russia is being prepared. In this region, China and Russia can form a pool of states capable of quite adequately resisting the Anglo-Saxons.
In this configuration, Russia can play on the contradictions between the United States and China and be an arbiter for the countries of Southeast Asia, balancing the pressure of China and the United States and smoothing out the contradictions between China and India, China and Vietnam, as well as protecting Iran from the “suffocating embrace” of the United States. In addition, China is ready to discuss cooperation with the CSTO, while Iran is going to sign a twenty-year agreement with Russia on military cooperation and has prepared documents on joining the CSTO and SCO.
Another informal summit is planned in Beijing, Putin is coming to the opening of the Winter Olympics in early February, and the leader of India is also going to be there. It is possible that the leaders of the three countries will discuss the results of negotiations between Russia and the United States and take steps to coordinate joint actions in the light of a possible division of spheres of influence when the United States signs or does not sign a Russian ultimatum.
Another painful point in the southern underbelly of the United States is Latin America, where Russia and China have long been creating their footholds from which unacceptable damage to the Americans can be inflicted. In one of his interviews, Putin gave an example for a reason, how Washington would react to the deployment of hostile military infrastructure on the Mexican-American border, as if hinting that it would not be difficult to find vulnerabilities in the immediate vicinity of US territory.
The climax is not far off
The Russian-American confrontation is inevitably approaching a climax. Moscow's deliberate increase in rates has put Washington in conditions where it is no longer possible not to respond. The denouement in the confrontation will be resolved by the surrender of one of the parties or by a military clash. If the United States accepts the Russian ultimatum, they will be forced to leave Eastern Europe and lose face as a world hegemon with the inevitable decline of their empire.
If the ultimatum is rejected, the Americans have no choice but to give the command to the Kiev native authorities to unleash a conflict in Donbass with the future surrender of Ukraine and the lowering of the iron curtain in front of Russia. In this case, the Russian leadership will have to prepare and deliver the promised military-technical strike not only in Donbass, where the Americans are pushing them, but in another vulnerable point, which, for obvious reasons, no one knows yet.
If Washington refuses to satisfy all or the most significant demands of the ultimatum and Moscow, showing weakness, will reconcile to this without striking back, this will be the final decline of Russia as a great power and its inevitable absorption by Western civilization as a powerless raw materials appendage. With it, not only the United States, but also such political mongrels as Ukraine and Georgia, will talk only from a position of strength and demand the fulfillment of any conditions.
On the eve of the talks, Biden made it clear through his spokesman that
“We can make progress on some of the proposals, but some of them are not viable,… based on our experience, we do not negotiate publicly and because many of the proposals do not merit such a response.”
It follows from this statement that the Americans are not going to accept the Russian ultimatum as a package, excluding the most significant proposals from it. Given this position of the United States, the planned negotiations are doomed to failure.
All this suggests that the era of Russia's movement towards the West, where it is a defeated country without rights, subjectivity and future, has ended, and a new stage begins, in which the establishment of relations on other principles is impossible without the forceful redistribution of spheres of influence. The latest events in Kazakhstan have shown that the United States has not yet abandoned the forcible rejection of the post-Soviet space.
The presentation of a Russian ultimatum may turn out to be a harbinger of the beginning of a new era and so serious not only for the future of Russia, but for the whole world, that the Kremlin, apparently, had to very painstakingly calculate everything before taking such an extraordinary step.