Hypersonic "Vanguard" and missile defense. Development prospects
Two years ago, in the last days of 2019, the first Avangard missile systems with the eponymous hypersonic gliding warhead took up combat duty. Due to the highest flight characteristics, the latter is capable of breaking through any existing and future anti-missile and air defense. However, work is already underway to further improve these capabilities.
With a vision for the future
On December 17, the Day of Strategic Missile Forces, the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper published an interview with the commander-in-chief of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel-General Sergei Karakaev. The topic of the conversation was the current state of affairs in the missile forces and the prospects for their development. Among other things, they touched upon the issue of modern and future hypersonic weapons. We also considered the topic of anti-missile defense of a potential adversary and its impact on our projects.
The Avangard complex was also considered in this context. According to General Karakaev, at present, his hypersonic warhead is simply inaccessible to existing and developed missile defense systems. The speed of more than 20 M and the ability to perform maneuvers allows him to bypass the zones of action of the defense, and the enemy does not have the ability to predict the target of the attack. Accordingly, Avangard has an almost XNUMX% chance of breaking through any missile defense system.
At the same time, the commander noted that the development of anti-missile systems is also showing high rates. The necessary research is being carried out abroad, and the search for technologies for the destruction of hypersonic targets continues. Thus, the United States will make every effort to successfully complete such projects, which will allow them to reduce the potential of the Russian strategic nuclear forces.
The Russian Strategic Missile Forces intend to maintain and improve their missile defense capability. For this, research organizations and the military-industrial complex as a whole are developing new defense breakthrough systems. Some of these samples are created specifically for hypersonic warheads. At the same time, for obvious reasons, the commander-in-chief of the Strategic Missile Forces did not give any details.
Actual protection
The issues of overcoming antimissile defense became urgent again 20 years ago - after the US withdrawn from the ABM Treaty. The American side unilaterally regained the right to deploy missile defense systems in any areas and in any quantity. Subsequent military construction on land and at sea, incl. near the Russian borders led to the creation of a fairly large and powerful missile defense system.
American defense projects, despite their declared goals, posed an obvious danger to Russia's strategic nuclear forces, primarily to their ground component. In this regard, the Russian army and industry took the necessary measures. Began equipping the existing missile systems with missile defense breakthroughs, and in parallel, the development of fundamentally new strike systems was carried out.
According to open data, over the years, all Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles involved in combat duty have been equipped with missile defense breakthroughs. It is known that the complex of such means includes active and passive jamming devices, as well as decoys imitating real warheads.
With the help of interference, it is difficult to detect and track flying targets, and simulators of warheads must divert the missile defense weapons onto themselves, ensuring the safe passage of real warheads. Thus, a massive nuclear missile strike is guaranteed to overload even a well-developed and numerous missile defense system.
The Avangard missile system was built using fundamentally new technical solutions, which, among other things, gives it special capabilities in the context of a missile defense breakthrough. In his case, overcoming the defense is ensured not by overloading, but by means of high flight performance. According to various estimates, this makes interception impossible or unacceptably difficult.
The hypersonic warhead in flight develops high speed, which dramatically reduces the time to detect an attack and react to it. In this case, even the relative simplicity of detecting such an aircraft surrounded by a plasma envelope will not help the enemy. Aiming at such a target is sharply difficult due to its ability to maneuver. In addition, the flight can be carried out along the most difficult trajectory, incl. bypassing potentially dangerous areas.
Ways of development
According to the commander-in-chief of the Strategic Missile Forces, Russian science and industry are ready to develop new missile defense breakthroughs for hypersonic missile systems. What they will be, when they will appear and how they will be used is unknown. It can be assumed that in the future they will be introduced in completely new weapons projects, and also used in the modernization of the Avangard.
An obvious way to increase the potential of missile defense systems is to further improve flight and maneuverable characteristics. The modern Avangard block flies at a speed of about 20 M, and this makes it practically unattainable for the current missile defense system. An additional increase in speed in the main leg of flight by several kilometers per second will become an even more difficult challenge for detection and interception equipment. Maintaining or improving maneuverability at these speeds will increase the likelihood of a breakout. In addition, it should be borne in mind that the flight range directly depends on the maximum speed of the gliding unit - an equally important parameter.
Probably, the hypersonic complex can be equipped with "traditional" breakthrough means. Together with a real warhead, sources of interference and even decoys should be launched to the target. Due to the superiority in flight characteristics, the warhead will quickly stand out against the background of such means, but the enemy will still lose valuable reaction time.
It is quite possible that research and design organizations are working out not only these, but also other methods of countering and breaking through the enemy's anti-missile defense. However, one should not expect that in the near future they will begin to reveal their plans and successes in this area.
Defense and attack
The current state of Russia's strategic nuclear forces, incl. their ground components, on the whole, are conducive to optimism - both in general and in the context of means of overcoming missile defense. "Traditional" ICBMs carry the necessary systems and are able to solve the assigned combat mission, although they will suffer some losses from the enemy's missile defense. Hypersonic "Vanguards", in turn, should show an almost one hundred percent probability of overcoming a modern missile defense system.
Taking into account the latest trends in the development of foreign weapons and defense systems, it can be assumed that the current balance of forces will remain at least for the next several years. Only in the second half of the decade - if not later - the most developed foreign countries will be able to put their first missile defense systems on duty, in theory capable of counteracting strategic hypersonic arms.
By this time, Russian scientists and engineers can complete their current work. Thanks to this, our missile systems will receive new means of overcoming missile defense, and with them special combat capabilities. Leadership will return to Russian strike systems, while foreign defenses will return to a catch-up position.
For all its complexity, such an "arms race" will allow our Strategic Missile Forces to retain the necessary advantages and capabilities. At the same time, for a long time they will be able to remain a highly effective military-political instrument that keeps foreign hotheads from rash decisions.
Information