Gorny Badakhshan: it can break out at any moment
The deceased Ziyobekov Gulbiddin Ziyobekovich and his mother at a protest. Source: rus.ozodi.org
Chronicle of events
It all began on November 25, when the inhabitants of the city of Khorog carried the coffin with the body of 29-year-old Gulbiddin Ziyobekov to the square in front of the local administration. He was shot dead while being detained in the Shokhdar village of the Roshtkala region. At the same time, the versions of the two parties to the conflict differ. According to the Prosecutor's Office of Gorno-Badakhshan, Ziyobekov is a real repeat offender and the leader of the local gang. Back in February last year, he and his accomplices took the prosecutor of the Roshtkala region hostage, beat and tortured him. It is not entirely clear why the local security forces delayed the arrest of Gulbiddin until November 2021, and limited themselves only to summons to testify. Naturally, the young man was not going to voluntarily surrender - the prosecutor's office opened a criminal case against him. When we decided to take the suspect, it turned out very crooked. Official communication from the prosecutor's office:
“On November 25, at 11:30 am, a resident of the village of Tavdem, Roshtkala region of GBAO, Ziyobekov Gulbiddin Ziyobekovich, born in 1992, was on the official wanted list for committing crimes under Articles 181, Part 3 (“ Hostage-taking by an organized group ”) and 189 , part 3 ("Incitement of national, racial, regional or religious hatred") of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Tajikistan on the basis of the search materials of the prosecutor's office, during the operational-search measures to arrest him, put up armed resistance to law enforcement officers, opened fire from the Makarov pistol ", Which was carried with him illegally. The offender was wounded by return fire. During the inspection of the scene, it was found weapon the offender is a PM pistol with a magazine and five cartridges. "
Sources in the prosecutor's office still claim that they took Ziyobekov alive, albeit with a gunshot wound. According to unofficial information, he managed to seriously injure two officers of the prosecutor's office - they are now in intensive care. The security officials learned that the suspect had died from the hospital. Outraged residents of Khorog walked with Ziyobekov's body through the city streets and set up near the tribune of the local administration - a four-day protest action began. The protesters, as usual, have their own truth. According to popular opinion, the shot Badakhshan stood up for the girl's honor. She was molested by an assistant local prosecutor, and she asked for intercession from Ziyobekov, who enjoys local authority. According to an alternative version, the girl was the suspect's sister. The brother caught the offender, beat him up and forced him to apologize to the camera for the harassment. The revenge of the prosecutor's office was harsh - during the arrest, a 29-year-old Badakhshan man received a bullet in the head and died on the way to the hospital. But there is another version, according to which the security forces simply put Ziyobekov in a car, and then gave the corpse to relatives for burial.
It should be noted the high degree of the outbreak of the crisis. The authorities blocked Khorog at entry-exit, and also cut off cellular communications and the Internet. However, this time Dushanbe refused to send troops - the bloody consequences of the 2012 conflict, when at least 40 people were killed in Khorog, according to the official version, are still in memory.
Smoldering crisis
To resolve the situation, on November 25, the head of the Gorno-Badakhshan administration, Alisher Mirzonabotov, came out to the protesters, booed and tried to drag him into the crowd by force. It should be noted separately that Mirzonabotov took up the duties of the head of the Autonomous Okrug quite recently, replacing Yodgor Faizov, who is very popular with the locals, on November 1. The people of Badakhshans were especially irritated by the past of the new governor - Mirzonabotov, the former deputy chairman of the State Committee for National Security of Tajikistan.
After an unsuccessful attempt to lynch the new head of Gorno-Badakhshan, a shootout began, several people died, the official report says that “young people did not obey the order of law enforcement officers and with the use of firearms, stones and other piercing-cutting objects attacked the employees The State Committee for National Security, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Prosecutor's Office, who served in the building. " The exact death toll is unknown - according to various sources, up to 5 people could be fatally injured. The problem is aggravated by the presence of weapons on both sides of the conflict. Gorny Badakhshan is an important drug trafficking point from Afghanistan and local gangs are well equipped. At the same time, the protesters launched a real information war. Despite the blockade of the city, Tajik bloggers managed to spread the news about "lawlessness" in Khorog and even announced a protest rally outside the UN building in New York. The incident was not ignored by Russian Tajiks as well - they staged a peaceful picket outside their native embassy in Moscow.
The conflict was ended only on November 28, when the Interdepartmental Headquarters for Security and Public Order of the Autonomous Okrug intervened in the negotiation process. In this case, the authorities clearly made concessions, agreeing to "check, evaluate and resolve issues within the competence of the prosecutor's office in cooperation with representatives of civil society, in accordance with the legislation of the Republic of Tajikistan." In addition, according to the participants in the negotiations from the protesters, “the authorities promised not to prosecute the protesters and to prosecute those responsible for the murder of Gulbiddin Ziyobekov. They also stated that the checkpoints in Khorog will be removed and Internet access will be restored. " Now the initiative is in a smoldering confrontation on the side of the Gorno-Badakhshan administration, and if the new head behaves awkwardly, the entire region may shudder from the consequences.
Gorny Badakhshan is not exactly Tajikistan, although it occupies most of the country. As an autonomy, the region has existed continuously since 1925. Now a little more than 200 thousand people live in it, and this is a little more than 2% of the total population of the republic. At the same time, the region is very tightly tied to foreign financial flows, including from Russia, which allows it to pursue a policy independent of Dushanbe. By the way, the locals treat Russia very well - in 1992 they even wanted to join.
Important differences from the rest of Tajikistan are in the religious and ethnic composition of Gorno-Badakhshan. First, the locals have their own language, which is seriously different from Tajik. Secondly, most of the population professes a special Shiite offshoot - Ismailism, while the Tajiks are Sunni Muslims. At the same time, representatives of Sunni Tajiks have been placed in all administrative posts. The situation is the same as in Syria, just the opposite - in the Arab republic the Shiite minority is in power. The example very clearly shows how fierce the confrontation can be between two branches of the same religion.
The border of Gorno-Badakhshan with Afghanistan adds a special intensity to the situation - anti-government forces won in the neighboring country and this cannot but affect the Badakhshan people. In the hope of stabilizing the situation, the border with Afghanistan has long been taken under control by the Chinese, of course, after the permission of official Dushanbe. This is especially important, since literally across the border in the province of Badakhshan there are related Pamiris who are ready to come to the aid of their fellow tribesmen at any time. In case of lack of foresight on the part of the head of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, the consequences of the conflict can be the most unpredictable. Now is not 2012, when neighboring Afghanistan at the very least controlled by the coalition forces - the Taliban, banned in Russia, would not mind spreading their revolution to the post-Soviet republics. If, of course, appropriate conditions are created for this. The spread of the crisis across Tajikistan itself and its neighbors will be lightning fast. Russia will be obliged to join as a peacekeeper, which, in turn, will entail aggravation with the terrorist authorities of Afghanistan.
This is well understood in the Western countries, which, even after the departure of NATO, retained a certain influence in the region. Analysts speak openly about the presence of the interests of Great Britain, which will not refuse to create another hotbed of tension near Russia and China. Moreover, the soil for igniting the smoldering conflict is quite fertile here.
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