Is a new war between Ethiopia and Sudan possible?
Northeast Africa is once again attracting attention. We have repeatedly talked about this region of the world as a rather unstable and problematic place. This is the clearest example of a fairly fast future of the planet.
We are accustomed to the fact that today the main cause of interstate strife is energy, but in this case, for this region, tension is most often associated with water. More precisely - with the Nile River. It is this river that has been the topic of negotiations between Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt for more than 10 years.
Another clash occurred recently between units of the Sudanese and Ethiopian armies. In the Al-Fashaq area, the Sudanese military was attacked by an Ethiopian unit and militias.
According to the Sudanese military, the attack was repulsed. In this case, six soldiers of the Sudanese army were killed. The enemy lost "a lot more." This incident did not come as a surprise in Sudan. Fighting in the area ended just over half a year ago, in April 2021.
Yes, and Ethiopians appear in these places quite often. The Al-Fashaq area is considered controversial. At the beginning of the last century, the British artificially created a hotbed of tension in the area.
At the conclusion of the Treaty of Borders (1902), the area was transferred to the Ethiopian Empire. Naturally, Ethiopian families moved to a region with a favorable climate for agriculture. Five years have passed. In 1907 a new treaty was signed. The Al-Fashaq area was returned to Sudan, but the Ethiopians were allowed to live there.
The situation, as you can see, is similar to the one that existed and still exists in Nagorno-Karabakh. Two peoples living on the same land, tied together economically and quite often by kinship, became hostages of the confrontation between Ethiopia and Sudan.
Popular Front for the Liberation of Tygra
In addition to Sudan and Ethiopia, the opposition to the ruling regime of Ethiopia, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray (PPLT), plays an important role in the conflict. The organization, moreover, is the official party of Ethiopia, which was created in September 1974 by six students of the Tigray people in Addis Ababa.
Ideologically, this is a strange mixture of orthodox communism, terry Tigray separatism and the ideas of self-determination of all the peoples of Ethiopia. Something like the ideology of one of the presidential candidates of the "Republic of ShKID": "The senior department - humpbacks! The younger ones are also justly! "
But the NFOT has a fairly serious militia unit, consisting of students (officers) and soldiers (peasants), who are currently involved in the civil war in Tygra. It is the militants of the front, in the opinion of the Sudanese government, who pose a threat to Sudan if they go to this country.
Why Sudanese authorities are concerned about the situation in the Al-Fashaq area
The Al-Fashaq area directly borders Tigray. It is clear that in the conditions of the civil war, the civilian population fled to neighboring Sudan. Militants may also be among the refugees.
What for?
The answer is simple. And the conflict already mentioned above gave it. From September to January, the peasants harvest. It is clear that in Al-Fashaqa, with favorable conditions for agriculture, the harvest is quite rich.
Ethiopian insurgents are trying to force Sudanese farmers to give up part of the harvest to them. They use intimidation, murder of those who disagree, and ordinary terror. By the way, the regular army of Ethiopia also believes that it has the right to "tax" products from Ethiopians living in Al-Fashaq.
So Sudan has every reason to believe that Ethiopia may soon begin hostilities in the area. It was like that a year ago. Actively using aviation, artillery and tanks, Ethiopians and Sudanese fought precisely in the period between harvest and sowing. January to April.
And one more completely inconspicuous fact.
There is also a civil war in Sudan itself. It is inconspicuous. Such a sluggish war, which flares up with one or two clashes, then dies down. But it is not finished. Both sides remained in their places.
With the result that
The question arises as to why the tension in relations between the countries is already developing into armed clashes?
Why did the countries manage to reach an agreement before 2020?
Moreover, to some extent this also applies to Russia. Let me remind you about the materials on the possibility of creating a Russian support point for the Russian Navy in Sudan. We have written about this many times. Sudan asks to create this base, and we need it.
So, it was not for nothing that I mentioned Neil at the beginning of the article.
For more than 10 years, negotiations have been unsuccessful between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on the construction of a huge dam on the Nile in Ethiopia. A dam 2 km long and 150 meters high is being built.
If this point is not critical for Sudan, then for the other two countries it is a serious question. For Ethiopians, this is a matter of providing the country with food and the development of the entire economy. For Egypt, I'm not afraid to write this - the question of the existence of the country.
Egypt and Ethiopia are in the US zone of influence. But recently, the activity of the Chinese has been observed in this region. Unlike Americans, the Chinese do not really think about the political system of the country in which they are investing. They clearly separate politics and business.
Thus, the region has become an arena for the struggle between two superpowers - China and the United States. The Americans, realizing that they were losing the "battle" and having no special interests in this part of Africa, stopped holding back both Ethiopia and Sudan. Simply put, they sharply reduced economic aid to countries.
Conflicts over disputed areas, the Nile water problem, ethnic issues - all of this began to surface against the backdrop of deteriorating economic indicators. At the same time, the United States continues to contain a much more volatile region, between Ethiopia and Egypt.
Alas, Russia cannot intervene in the situation globally. Yes, and we do not need this, but we will have a naval base. Solving our own problems, we actually take the side of the PRC in the struggle for the region. We are working together with the Chinese against the United States.
What about conflicts?
Africa is very complex. Including geographically. There is an active formation of not only states, but also nations. And this is always difficult ...
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