Military Review

What can stop Russia from attacking Ukraine?

123
What can stop Russia from attacking Ukraine?
Source: flickriver.com / k.aksoy93


In the American analytical magazine "War on the Rocks", which, although inferior to such dashing publications as "The National Interest", is nevertheless famous for deep diving into analytics and predictions based on analyzes, the following article was published: Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics

Alex Vershinin, a US Army Lieutenant Colonel with experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and modeling for NATO's Concept Development and Research Department, has published his vision of how Russia will attack Ukraine and what will come of it.

In general, Vershinin demonstrated his knowledge of the specifics of our army, which suggests that he began his career in one of the armies of the post-Soviet space. But in the end I disappointed.

Surprisingly, Vershinin does not criticize the opinion of some American authors (specifically David Shlapak and Michael Johnson), who believe that, if desired, Russia will conquer the entire Baltic region in three days without much stress.

And the main question posed by the lieutenant colonel: how should NATO react to such an outrage? Either to start a nuclear Apocalypse, or to launch a counteroffensive (which implies large losses of the alliance), or to spit and recognize Russia's aggression as a fait accompli.

The third option hits NATO's reputation no worse than a low-yield nuclear warhead.

But this is the Baltics. Small and compact republics that are a pleasure to occupy. In our case, with Ukraine, everything is somewhat more complicated, the country, to put it mildly, is the largest in Europe in terms of territory. And, if you compare with the Baltics, there are no comparisons. Odessa region with its 33 thousand sq. km and Estonia, which is 45 thousand ... Well, you get the point.

Vershinin quite rightly believes that the main enemy for Russia will not be the Ukrainian army, but logistics. According to the lieutenant colonel's conclusions, the Russian army will have enough strength to carry out the invasion and seizure of several regions, but in the future, Russia will not have enough forces for a major invasion and seizure of large territories.

More precisely, the structure of material and technical support, which will be obliged to supply the advancing troops with everything necessary, will not cope. That is, the Russian army, crossing the border, at the first stage of its offensive, will not experience problems, however, the further the offensive develops, the more pauses will have to be made to pull up the rear and supply troops.


Vershinin believes that large-scale actions on the territory of Ukraine will be impossible precisely because the logistics services of the Russian army will not cope with supply issues. The Russian army has everything to successfully operate on Ukrainian territory, the combat power is more than sufficient to sweep away the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but it will be impossible to carry out the supply

Perhaps NATO departments and services that will plan to repel Russian aggression should pay attention not to eliminating inequality in combat capabilities (which is not surprising, given the proximity of Russian territory), but to make it as difficult as possible to supply the advancing units.

It is realistic to arrange for the pulling of Russian troops deep into the territory of Ukraine, interrupting supply lines in every possible way, destroying freight and rail transport, bridges and pipelines.

(True, it should be noted that organizing the destruction of transport infrastructure in the absence of an air force in Ukraine will not be easy. You will have to rely solely on the DRG, but this is more difficult - approx.)

However, it should be really taken into account that initially the battles will unfold near the borders and places of permanent deployment of the Russian troops of the Western Military District. This will initially make the supply lines not as large as the opposing side would like.

(In addition, as if in response to Lieutenant Colonel Vershinin, we have our own plan for organizing the supply of troops, based on the experience of using railways. And this material will come out after this - approx.)

By the way, Vershinin attaches great importance to railways. The American believes that the logistics services of the Russian army are not sufficiently developed (a controversial statement, by the way) precisely because the General Staff is counting on the supply of units and formations precisely by rail.

Further, there will be a quote from Vershinin, which shows that, to put it mildly, he does not have enough objective information regarding the capabilities of parts of the MTO.

In addition, the Russian army does not have a sufficient number of logistical support teams for each branch of the armed forces. According to the annual Military Balance bulletin of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia has ten logistics brigades to support 11 combined-arms armies, one tank army and four army corps. The Western and Southern military districts of Russia each have three armies and only two brigades of logistical support.

Let's take the ZVO for a start.

69th separate MTO brigade (Dzerzhinsk)
51st separate MTO brigade (Krasnoe Selo)
152nd separate MTO brigade (Liski)

Already inconsistency.

Southern Military District:

78th separate MTO brigade (Budyonnovsk)
99th separate MTO brigade (Maykop)
133rd MTO Brigade (Bakhchisaray)

The mistake of "only" two teams. We will not judge whether it is a lot or a little. Overall, this just shows how accurate the American is in his calculations.

But Vershinin correctly shows that Russia has a trump card that NATO does not have: our railway brigades. In fact, it is quite interesting. weaponif applied correctly.

29th Separate Railway Warsaw Brigade (Smolensk)
34th separate railway brigade (Rybnoye)
38th separate railway brigade (Yaroslavl)
37th separate railway brigade (Volgograd)
39th separate railway brigade (Timashevsk)
333rd separate pontoon-bridge railway battalion (Volgograd)

The railway brigade is a versatile tool capable of building, repairing, maintaining tracks, guarding tracks and goods, loading, unloading, transshipment and sorting of goods of various purposes. Moreover, the brigades have everything to work. Only freight rolling stock is provided by civilian companies.

And these brigades are perfectly capable of becoming a reliable aid in the transportation of goods for the advancing units.

In his material, Vershinin complains that the track gauge in Russia and Europe is different, and this will not allow the Russian railway troops to operate effectively.

The catch is that in the Russian Federation the railway track is wider than in other European countries. The Russian standard is used only in Finland and the former Soviet republics, including the Baltic countries. There is only one wide-gauge railway line in Poland, it runs from the Krakow province to Ukraine, and Russian troops will not be able to use it unless they first seize this country. There are no such lines between Belarus and Warsaw.

Three in geography. The Ukraine in question is a former republic of the USSR, which means that in order to launch freight trains with equipment and ammunition from Russia, it will not be necessary to capture either Poland or Finland. Vershinin simply does not know how many railway crossings there are from Russia to Ukraine. In his article a lot of nonsense is written in this regard, which greatly lowers the value of the material.

You will not have to capture Poland, Finland, the Baltic states. It will be enough to carry out the transfer of trains from Russia to Ukraine along the existing railways. Yes, this will require a separate set of operations, but this is the fun we will devote the second part of our research to. To make the Summit completely scared. Although he already writes science fiction, it is dear to read!

In general, this article has already been discussed by several Russian resources, but they took it more seriously than in our case. However, judge for yourself:

In cross-border traffic, trains are usually stopped to distribute goods or resort to the use of wagons with swap bodies and shunting locomotives. In wartime, the Russian army is unlikely to capture enough Western-style locomotives to support the army, relying on trucks. In other words, the possibilities of railway support for the Russian army end at the borders of the former USSR. Outside of its own rail network, Russia will have to rely mainly on a fleet of trucks to supply its army while railroad forces rebuild or renovate an existing line, or even build a new one.

I would have removed the star from the lieutenant colonel. That's about the fact that in wartime ours will not be able to get hold of such things as locomotives, if necessary - well, the lieutenant colonel does not know the capabilities of our army, honestly. We will pay attention to this in the next article, but the main thing is what? What we just didn’t have time to see in the article of the lieutenant colonel, when he managed to leave Ukraine without a fight and began to scramble across Europe.

Further, there are calculations that the Russian army will not be able to ensure the proper supply of the advancing units with the help of trucks.

Vershinin's calculations are based on the fact that a truck can make three trips a day over a distance of 72 km in one direction. It's hard to say what caused the figure of 72 km, but okay.

Based on the assumption that you can drive on the roads at a speed of 72 kilometers per hour, one truck can make up to three 72-kilometer trips per day: an hour for loading, an hour for a trip to the unit's location, an hour for unloading and an hour for the return journey. Three such trips will run a total of 12 hours. The remaining time will be spent on truck maintenance, meals, refueling operations, gun cleaning, and sleep.

If these are American standards, then we will not discuss them. Everything is somehow different with us. And KamAZ trucks can, if they press (and they always press with us), give out a little more than 72 km / h.

Double the distance (145 kilometers) and the truck can only make two trips a day. Twice more (290 kilometers) - and now the trip is already one. In rough terrain or limited / damaged infrastructure, these calculations will no longer work.

I just suggest looking at the map. When the numbers are impersonal, it is not entirely clear from them, 300 km is a lot, or what?

If we take a railway junction, for example, in Brest as a starting point (you understand why), then 200 km from Brest along not the worst roads - it will be a town like Warsaw. The fact that in Brest you can find a considerable number of locomotives and bogies for the European gauge, I am simply silent.

But we are not talking about aggression and conquest of all of Europe. Vershinin says this, and I don't quite understand what he is talking about. They are there, overseas, stubbornly talking about Russian aggression and the seizure of Ukraine. Okay, you can be patient. But then appetites flare up and talk about the seizure of Europe and the difficulties of supply in this field is already beginning.

The Russian army does not have enough trucks to meet the logistics needs more than 145 kilometers from the supply depots. To reach a range of 290 kilometers, the Russian army would have to double the number of trucks so that each MTO brigade has 400 at its disposal.

They arrived, called. The MTO brigade should have 400 trucks. It's not entirely clear where Mr. Vershinin gets the numbers from, but:

The composition of the MTO brigade:
- management;
- separate automobile battalions - 2;
- a separate repair and restoration battalion;
- a separate pipeline battalion;
- a separate road commandant battalion;
- warehouses of brigades by type of material
- a separate company for the supply of water
- a separate company for refueling
- a separate service company
- laundry squads
- bath and laundry points
- mobile bakery

This is the full composition of any logistics brigade. And we are interested in one of the two MTO battalions, which, in fact, are engaged in the delivery of everything to the units.

The composition of the MTO battalion:
- management
- companies of supported units
- automobile company for the supply of material resources
- repair company (RAV and weapons)
- repair company (AT and BT)
- a logistics company
- medical company

Personnel: 1001 people, including 673 people in MTO companies.

Cars: 408 units. Of these, in MTO companies - 260 units.

By using a terrible weapon (calculator), we find that in the MTO brigade, the delivery of everything necessary takes 260 x 2 x 2 = 1040 cars. This is pretty much more than what Vershinin thinks of our army. Or, someone gave him not entirely correct numbers.

Formally, a logistics brigade is assigned to each united army, despite the fact that different types of the Armed Forces have different organizational structures. Each such brigade consists of two road transport battalions, which include 150 general-purpose trucks, 50 trailers and 260 special trucks.

There is a difference. Probably, it will be unpleasant for experts in NATO to discover that there are twice as many trucks in logistics brigades than such experts give. And they go faster and further.

In addition, I would like to add that a tank regiment as part of a motorized rifle division has its own MTO platoon. An artillery self-propelled regiment has its own MTO company, an anti-aircraft missile regiment has its own MTO company, a rocket artillery regiment has an MTO company, and the division itself has its own MTO battalion of half a thousand people.

And behind each abbreviation "MTO" there are not only people, but also cars. The main task of which is precisely the delivery of everything you need.


By the way, the Russian MTO brigades coped with the problem of supply on the ground both in Chechnya (Vershinin cites a figure of 4 shells per day, which the artillerymen fired), and in Georgia and Syria. Yes, in Syria, from Latakia or Tartus to Khmeimim, the distance is very small, but there was a very, very limited contingent of logistics.

In general, Lieutenant Colonel Vershinin did not work out the material very well. Ukraine can be invaded without the supply problems the American is talking about.

Another question is that Russia absolutely does not need this.

Yes, yesterday and today, dozens of "experts" were broadcasting about the imminent offensive of the Russian army to Ukraine, but ... You can place bets and make good money on forecasts when this offensive will take place. I mean, bet on the fact that there will be no offensive.

Let's leave Ukraine alone until our next article, and see what Vershinin says about the Baltics.

And there, Russian troops will need to capture the Baltic countries and overcome all resistance in less than 96 hours, until the NATO High-Readiness Joint Task Force sends reinforcements to the defenders. While these forces will not stop a Russian invasion, they will engage NATO in a ground war.

By the way, does it make sense then for NATO forces to intervene and spend their human and technical resources, if they still don’t save the Baltic states? Is there any point in getting into a war on foreign territory, away from our supply bases and into a war with Russia, which has bases close by, and the Baltic railways will allow, if not everything, then almost everything?

I liked this moment:

A dozen issued over Germany aviation NATO cruise missiles can destroy key railway bridges in Narva, Pskov and Velikiye Luki, block railway communication with the Baltic states for several days while the bridges are being repaired

Cruise missiles fired even over Poland may "fail." There are air defense units in the Kaliningrad region, there are similar units in Belarus. And in the composition of those units that will press the Baltics, there are also air defense units. And a dozen or even two cruise missiles can bring not so much destruction as crash. Collapse of hopes that bridges will be destroyed.

In the Baltic scenario, Russian planners must consider the risk of an immediate counter-attack from Poland, which could muster four divisions in an attempt to catch the attacking army by surprise.

And what, it would be interesting to watch this show. Trying isn't torture, is it?

In this case, Moscow would have thrown numerous forces to siege Tallinn and Riga and at the same time would have been forced to repel the Polish counterattack from the south. The ammunition consumption would be colossal. During the armed conflict with Georgia in 2008, some formations used up the main ammunition in 12 hours. Taking this rate as a model, the Russians would have to replenish ammunition every 12-24 hours.

Easy. In the conditions of work of logistics departments with interaction with railway workers, it is more than simple to organize.

Until NATO forces arrive, the large Baltic forces will give Russia no time to build rail terminals, forcing it to rely only on trucks.

Here one can begin to doubt that Vershinin served in one of our (and not so our) armies in the post-Soviet space. Our terminals will not be built. This is the Russian army! Where the cars stop, trucks will drive up there, and unloading will go without any terminals and other nonsense! And in general, the deserted the space is, the faster everything will happen.

The bear will be fed, there is no doubt about it.


In general, there were enough blunders. But the Baltic and Polish (I did not consider it, it is also a fantasy) scripts have no right to life just because they live in the lieutenant colonel's fantasies.

But Vershinin also has very sound thoughts.

It does not appear that Russia is organizing an MTO force with the expectation of an invasion or blitzkrieg in Poland. Alternatively, the Russian government has created an army ideal for an active defense strategy. The Russian armed forces are capable of conducting hostilities on their territory or near their borders, as well as carrying out long-range strike operations. But they are not capable of a prolonged ground offensive far beyond the borders of Russian railways without logistic pauses or mass mobilization of reserve forces.

Wouldn't be worth checking, honestly. Yes, it may be very difficult for a Western analyst to correctly assess and understand Russia's actions near its borders. The movement of troops on the border with Ukraine may be viewed by some as preparations for an invasion, while others may simply be another round of diplomacy. Power diplomacy. You know, this is a matter of taste, and we argue about them.
But Vershinin is quite correct in saying that without the creation of transit warehouses near the borders, focused on supplying the troops that crossed this border, a normal invasion is simply impossible.

No base - no way to attack. This was proven back in 1944, when Soviet troops stood on the outskirts of Warsaw. It is impossible to do something in the theater of operations without fuel, cartridges and shells.

In principle, for our potential NATO members, one piece of advice can be given: while we are minding our own business, such as exercises near the border, sleep well and do not think about all sorts of nonsense like confrontation or repulsing "aggression".

But if we start to build additional warehouses and deliver everything we need there according to the lists, then we should panic in full. But not before.
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  1. Carat
    Carat 1 December 2021 05: 49
    -3
    And the main question posed by the lieutenant colonel: how should NATO react to such an outrage? Either to start a nuclear Apocalypse, or to launch a counteroffensive (which implies large losses of the alliance), or to spit and recognize Russia's aggression as a fait accompli.

    The third option hits NATO's reputation no worse than a low-yield nuclear warhead.


    The third thing will happen. NATO is no stranger to it. Afghanistan is a fresh example.
    1. Civil
      Civil 1 December 2021 07: 30
      +1
      1. Generally, during the collapse of the USSR, the industry and the territory of Ukraine were compared with France.
      2. I think it will be an easy walk for our army, as the Wehrmacht bent France.
      1. Carat
        Carat 1 December 2021 07: 33
        -1
        The Wehrmacht captured only half of France, content with photographs against the backdrop of the Eiffel Tower.
        If Russia goes - then to the western border of Ukraine.
        1. Civil
          Civil 1 December 2021 08: 18
          +2
          Quote: Carat
          The Wehrmacht captured only half of France, content with photographs against the backdrop of the Eiffel Tower.
          If Russia goes - then to the western border of Ukraine.

          Well, the Wehrmacht also completely captured Ukraine, and in the end it also completely occupied France.
        2. Roman Efremov
          Roman Efremov 1 December 2021 21: 08
          +9
          What are you, what are you !!! Why to the western border - to feed several million Bandera, who will scoop our porridge with one hand and hold a knife in the other? I will say more - and Kiev must not be liberated in any case !!! Otherwise, the West will have to pay all its debts.
          1. Carat
            Carat 1 December 2021 21: 14
            0
            Millions of Bandera members simply fled to Poland until the Ukrainians hanged them.
            In 1945, the USSR took Berlin, but no one thought of demanding Hitler's debts from the USSR.
            1. Roman Efremov
              Roman Efremov 1 December 2021 22: 15
              0
              It's different now. "Released" Kiev will not return our debt of 5 billion, and will hang other people's debts on us (with the consent of its creditors).
              1. Carat
                Carat 1 December 2021 22: 58
                +1
                He will not return 5 billion anyway, and he will not hang other people's debts, on the grounds that they are someone else's.
            2. Uma palata
              Uma palata 7 December 2021 20: 23
              0
              How will they hang their own children ?!
        3. isv000
          isv000 2 December 2021 13: 06
          -1
          Quote: Carat
          The Wehrmacht captured only half of France, content with photographs against the backdrop of the Eiffel Tower.

          The rest of the territory did not require military action: the police and special services in full force continued to carry out their duties, the army merged ... By the way - the scenario is quite possible for the South-East! wassat
        4. Stepan S
          Stepan S 2 December 2021 16: 37
          0
          If Russia goes - then to the western border of Ukraine.

          And I doubt it will go to the western border. even that will go at all. In case of need, the army infrastructure will be destroyed, the Ukrainian army will lose its ability to fight and will march across the Khatyns. Political crisis and a new president. And so every time there is a new president until there is one that suits Russia. No one will be able to feed, to recoup.
        5. Koliadazt
          Koliadazt 6 December 2021 08: 58
          +2
          ex, It would be nice, as a Ukrainian, I sincerely await the arrival of Russia (if that is without sarcasm)
          1. Sad235
            Sad235 7 December 2021 10: 02
            -4
            And what do you want to fuck with this.? For fun, look at our prices in stores and pensions Thinks, if Russia comes, prices will decrease, etc. If Sanctions are imposed so that you can howl
            1. viktortarianik
              viktortarianik 9 December 2021 08: 34
              0
              Life will not become cheaper. It will be easier to live morally. Not everything is measured in money.
      2. vaymag
        vaymag 1 December 2021 15: 09
        +1
        Yeah already they took one city with two regiments in two hours
        1. Carat
          Carat 1 December 2021 21: 16
          0
          Are you talking about the one about which "Pasha Mercedes" said: "Our boys die with a smile on their lips"?
        2. vaymag
          vaymag 1 December 2021 21: 21
          +6
          Yes. Bravo-hysterical speeches always lead to great sacrifices. And note that neither those who make these speeches nor their relatives die there.
        3. Stepan S
          Stepan S 2 December 2021 16: 38
          +1
          Why take any cities at all, for what purpose? Only the destruction of the military infrastructure.
      3. A. h. 52
        A. h. 52 3 December 2021 10: 23
        -5
        The Wehrmacht bent half of France in 40 days.
        On the Eastern Front, over the same 40 days, the Wehrmacht captured territory of one and a half France (that is, three times more than it captured in France). The question is - who fought better?
        1. Sanichsan
          Sanichsan 6 December 2021 11: 55
          +2
          Quote: A. h.52
          The question is - who fought better?

          the one who set the red flag over the Reichstag yes you forgot?
          1. A. h. 52
            A. h. 52 9 December 2021 18: 34
            -1
            Without the American Lend-Lease, it would hardly have been established.
            1. Sanichsan
              Sanichsan 9 December 2021 22: 45
              +1
              Quote: A. h.52
              I would hardly have installed it.

              not unlikely, but later and with great losses, but for sure.
              but if it were not for the American factories from which Hitler bought weapons throughout the war, then there would be no war request
      4. Pilat2009
        Pilat2009 18 March 2022 16: 28
        0
        Quote: Civil
        I think for our army it will be an easy walk, as the Wehrmacht bent France.

        Well, what can I say. The analyst is not du..k, far from du..k. And it didn’t work out easy.
        1. Civil
          Civil 19 March 2022 07: 58
          -1
          there is still time, especially since the Frogs have capitulated, the Ukronazis are also capitulating
    2. militarist63
      militarist63 1 December 2021 18: 18
      -3
      Third and what will happen
      Quite right! This "oracle"
      with experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, modeling in Concept Development and Research for NATO
      20 years ago, I would have predicted to my brothers .... how their long-term campaign in Afghanistan would end! lol
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. Old tanker
    Old tanker 1 December 2021 06: 43
    +22
    Well Vershinin, according to the author, showed the height of incompetence. But the author himself is largely inaccurate.
    Well, for example, in a tank regiment of the Moscow Infantry Division, not an MTO platoon, but a company. As well as in any regiment.
    When counting trucks and trailers in parts and subdivisions of logistics, the author does not take into account that some of them are intended for the transportation of their own property of these parts and subunits and cannot be used to supply the supplied parts and subunits.
    Well, the author probably knows that when carrying out the calculations, it is not the average speed (and even more so the maximum) of one truck that is taken into account. And the average speed of the column. He does not take into account the halts necessary for resting drivers and carrying out control inspections of equipment. Not to mention the organization of guarding and escorting the columns, engineering reconnaissance of the traffic routes. So the average speed on a good road (on a good road!) Of a truck in a convoy of 72 km / h is a very good result.
    And this is just a shot. You can go further into some of the "inaccuracies" of the author of the article.
    But the essence of the article is stated absolutely correctly.
    1. Lykases1
      Lykases1 1 December 2021 07: 38
      +3
      A column of 120 machines tail in Khankala, head in Gudermes. On the Khankala-Dargo march, there was not enough day for such a column, and this is 120-140 km.
      1. Old tanker
        Old tanker 1 December 2021 11: 14
        +4
        With a distance of 1 km and more, this is no longer a column, but single cars. In this case, there can be no question at all about the discipline of the march and the marching guard.
        This was what Khattab took advantage of in January 2000 at the bridge over Dzhalka.
    2. svp67
      svp67 1 December 2021 08: 42
      +1
      hi
      Quote: Old Tankman
      Well, for example, in a tank regiment of the Moscow Infantry Division, not an MTO platoon, but a company.

      Plus, each battalion and division has its own support platoon ...
      1. Old tanker
        Old tanker 1 December 2021 11: 17
        +1
        It can be neglected in terms of ammunition. Since it transports only non-removable c / c tanks of the battalion (that is, there was 1 c / c in the battalion, and it remains). But in terms of marching capabilities, yes, an increase, + 1 refueling.
        1. svp67
          svp67 1 December 2021 14: 53
          -1
          Quote: Old Tankman
          It can be neglected in terms of ammunition. Since it transports only non-removable c / c tanks of the battalion (that is, there was 1 c / c in the battalion, and it remains).

          No ... here you are wrong, it transports an additional b / c. If a tank is supposed to have a full b / c, he will drag it, but as this is already a problem for tankers ... there is no desire to push it into a non-mechanized stowage, so you have enough space on the MTO roof ... but this b / c is yours ...
          1. Old tanker
            Old tanker 2 December 2021 06: 27
            +1
            You are wrong, it carries a used extra. If a tank is supposed to have a full b / c, he will drag it, but as this is already a problem for tankers

            Don't tell what you don't know. Especially since I, 6 years old, served as the commander of a tank battalion. There is a w / c and can be carried in the battalion's transport (there are only a few shells per tank to replenish the n / a). For example, transported side-by-side T-80BV 38 shots. 7 more in the battalion's transport. All this makes up 1 battalion ammunition (not one tank, but a battalion). Just like the ammunition load of 480 rounds of ammunition (120 in stores, 60 in dies and 200 in packs in a duffel bag / knapsack.
            Therefore, the battalion has 1 b / c and 2 refueling stations (one in the tanks of vehicles, 1 in the battalion's transport).
            1. svp67
              svp67 2 December 2021 11: 51
              -1
              Quote: Old Tankman
              Don't tell what you don't know

              I have to teach you ... since you have wasted 6 years.
              Quote: Old Tankman
              For example, transported side-by-side T-80BV 38 shots. 7 more in the battalion's transport. All this makes up 1 battalion ammunition (not one tank, but a battalion).

              Did you CAREFULLY read your writing yourself? 45 shells are B.C. battalion? What kind of nonsense are you writing?
              To transport an additional 7 shells per tank, which is only 217 art shots, multiply this by the weight of one art shot of 60 kg (this is the maximum OFS + box), we have 13 kilograms !!!!!!!!! I don’t know about you, but our shells were packed into special transport containers, which significantly reduced the weight. In the support platoon there are 020 onboard Ural 5 with a trailer, at least THREE of them go for ammunition, which means that each of them carries 4320 kg + towed trailer = 6855 kg EVERY ... That is, in fact, one truck with a trailer will be involved ...
              1. Old tanker
                Old tanker 2 December 2021 13: 10
                +3
                How many shells are in boxes (they are transported in boxes, not in bulk) and the role is played not by the mass, but by the volume that fits into one Ural 43202?
                How many Urals in the battalion's transport are allocated for the transportation of ammunition?
                Exactly three! Why only three? Because 70 boxes fit into one "Natasha"! These are 10 tanks. One "Natashka" per company. The command tank only has ammunition in the MZ / AZ.
                So it's clearly not for you to teach me!
                1. svp67
                  svp67 2 December 2021 13: 14
                  -1
                  Quote: Old Tankman
                  How many shells are in boxes (they are transported in boxes, not in bulk

                  They are transported either in boxes or in special transport containers, which you have never seen before?
                  Quote: Old Tankman
                  So it's clearly not for you to teach me!

                  Judging by what you write here, there is something
                  1. Old tanker
                    Old tanker 2 December 2021 13: 29
                    +2
                    I have never seen transport containers for combat shots from tanks. Only for the first ship of the BPS practice. Although, maybe in the Soviet army somewhere there were. So this is from the category - crocodiles fly, but low, low.
                    But let's say.
                    In this case, to transport the second transportable ammunition load of the T-80BV, it is necessary to lift 68400kg of ammunition. The carrying capacity of the Ural-4320 given by you as an example with a trailer is 11500kg. In total, we lift 34500kg with three such Urals with trailers. 33900kg remains on the ground. Even if you throw out everything from the remaining 2 Urals with trailers, lifting the second b / c is not enough! And on what to move, what did we throw out?
                    This is according to your own calculations.
                    But when transporting goods, not only their mass is taken into account, but also their volume. A kilogram of cotton wool takes up much more volume than a kilogram of sand, for example.
                    So teach materiel. Or remember well.
                    Without this, further conversation is meaningless.
                    It doesn't make sense at all. Since the separation standard sets for TB: 1 non-smoking and 2 refueling.
                    I bow to this. And he blabbed so much.
    3. garrett
      garrett 1 December 2021 15: 48
      +5
      So the average speed on a good road (exactly on a good road!) Of a truck in a convoy is 72 km / h

      SHIELD? Which academy were you taught that way? As far as I remember, the speed of the convoy on the march is 35-40 km / h
      1. Old tanker
        Old tanker 2 December 2021 06: 36
        +1
        As far as I remember, the speed of the convoy on the march is 35-40 km / h

        Dear, that is why I wrote that the average speed of 72 km calculated by the American is a very good result.
        And then some "experts" point out that KamAZ and 120 can issue, and not just 72.
    4. mole
      mole 1 December 2021 19: 10
      0
      Initially, the article by "Lieutenant Colonel Vershinin" was stuffing. I threw in and "fishing", that is. analyze the discussions. Only the conclusions after the analysis will not get into the press.
    5. bistrov.
      bistrov. 2 December 2021 07: 44
      0
      Quote: Old Tankman
      a truck in a 72 km / h convoy is a very good result

      Well, here you "bent" too ... even the average speed of a single truck is considered 55 km / h, and in a convoy it simply cannot be more than 40 km, but most likely it will be 30 ...
      1. Old tanker
        Old tanker 2 December 2021 13: 47
        0
        It was not I who "turned down" it, but the American Lieutenant Colonel Vershinin.
    6. Stepan S
      Stepan S 2 December 2021 16: 41
      +1
      So the average speed on a good road (on a good road!) Of a truck in a convoy of 72 km / h is a very good result.

      I think this is an unattainable result for a truck when driving in a convoy. Here on the track the average speed of the car comes out somewhere around the same figure. Well, trucks also go somewhere - 80 km and time to stop.
  4. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 1 December 2021 06: 48
    +10
    Cutting off the entire Baltic region at once, at the same time hitting Poland's soup - in my opinion, it is much easier than invading "territory" and taking cities ... At the same time solving the problem with logistics for Kaliningrad ...
    1. Andrey Moskvin
      Andrey Moskvin 1 December 2021 16: 21
      0
      take cities

      The author generally has a "siege of Tallinn and Riga." lol
      1. Mountain shooter
        Mountain shooter 1 December 2021 16: 23
        +1
        Quote: Andrey Moskvin
        The author generally has a "siege of Tallinn and Riga."

        Yes, siege artillery and assault columns with ladders are used. wassat
        1. kytx
          kytx 5 December 2021 23: 21
          0
          Also neighing from the "siege" :) Well, there will be no less Stalingrad battle.
  5. Lord
    Lord 1 December 2021 06: 50
    -2
    And what if something happens, Russia will not shoot from the PM at NATO, but will use nuclear weapons, no one will take the calculation?
    1. Ivan1779
      Ivan1779 2 December 2021 20: 52
      0
      Then nuclear weapons will be used in Russia
  6. The comment was deleted.
  7. Viktor Sergeev
    Viktor Sergeev 1 December 2021 07: 42
    +4
    Russia can be stopped by the worthlessness and needlessness of Ukraine, the presence of 30 million inadequate, evil population in it, which will have to be fed.
    1. Victor Leningradets
      Victor Leningradets 1 December 2021 09: 08
      +1
      Why feed. Let Europe feed, here they are + mln. refugees from Central Europe.
    2. boris epstein
      boris epstein 1 December 2021 18: 03
      +1
      About the evil population. Most of the "evil" will quickly change their shoes in the jump.
  8. riwas
    riwas 1 December 2021 08: 21
    +4
    Here is Sladkov's interesting article.
    https://www.politnavigator.net/voenkor-soobshhil-o-serjoznojj-oshibke-rossii-na-donbasse.html
    He writes that in the current situation, Ukraine's attack on Donbass is inevitable. To prevent it, we must not hesitate and build up military muscles on the border of Donbass, otherwise there will be losses as in the first days when Georgia was forced to peace.
    1. Glory1974
      Glory1974 1 December 2021 10: 12
      0
      in the current situation, Ukraine's attack on Donbass is inevitable

      Solitaire is starting to take shape.
      England withdrew from the European Union to stay on the sidelines, "above the fight."
      In the struggle for gas supplies, the United States will not back down and will block SP-2 by all possible means, including the war in Ukraine. As long as the emotional wrapping up in the media is going on, satellites are being set on, weapons are being supplied.
      In such a situation, indeed, a lot of people are interested in starting the war.
      We not only need to build up our muscles, but we must also openly warn where the missiles will fly, to which decision-making centers.
  9. svp67
    svp67 1 December 2021 08: 39
    +6
    I am surprised that this "Expert" "did not notice" that the Russian railway troops are now rebuilding the second branch of the BAM ... well, why not a training session on the invasion?
  10. paul3390
    paul3390 1 December 2021 10: 04
    +6
    Stop Russia from attacking Ukraine - maybe not understanding what to do with it next? Well, we'll fill the mordas with ukrovoinstvo, and - what? The territory is in complete ruin, the people are amazed by banderlozhstvo, which useful from the great Soviet legacy - minuscule remained, how to sort it all out? And what shishi? The poor people themselves are like a church rat .. Why do we need Tsegabonia, at least - the whole thing? I still understand - the South-East, but the whole ??
    1. prior
      prior 1 December 2021 10: 30
      0
      A puppet regime barking towards the West in Ukraine would be fine for me.
      We will help you with gas, but otherwise by herself, by herself ...
      1. paul3390
        paul3390 1 December 2021 13: 17
        0
        Puppet regime - you will have to feed it .. And abundantly - for less they will not agree.
        1. prior
          prior 1 December 2021 13: 21
          +1
          Not the whole mode.
          One or two puppets, we will pull the president and the prime minister.
          However, they and their own sheep will not be measured, the wool will be cut.
          The main thing is to keep them tightly in one place ... bully
      2. A. h. 52
        A. h. 52 3 December 2021 17: 08
        +1
        We were already feeding the puppet regime of the Party of Regions with a shovel. It ended in Maidan three years after feeding.
    2. Akuzenka
      Akuzenka 1 December 2021 15: 16
      0
      You are right from a common sense, economic and military point of view. But from the point of view of the oligarchy, there is a lot to plunder. And it seems to me that the main reason why the oligarchy did not organize "reunification" is that their wallets are controlled by the West. They just take it away and that's it. Most likely, they are trying to agree on the terms of the "reunification". But all the same, they will be deceived.
  11. Dali
    Dali 1 December 2021 10: 32
    +5
    Quote: Roman Skomorokhov
    What can stop Russia from attacking Ukraine?

    I wonder why exactly attack on Ukraine?
    Why, for example, not the liberation of Ukraine?
    Or, at least, the compulsion to peace?

    Whose mill are you pouring water into? belay
    1. Ivan1779
      Ivan1779 2 December 2021 20: 54
      0
      The Nazis also said that "they are liberating the Russian people from the power of the Bolsheviks."
      1. Dali
        Dali 4 December 2021 21: 30
        0
        Quote: Ivan1779
        The Nazis also said that "they are liberating the Russian people from the power of the Bolsheviks."
        Ndass ... belay belay belay Another statement from gr. not from Russia there was nothing more to expect !!!
        1. Ivan1779
          Ivan1779 4 December 2021 22: 22
          0
          But as a matter of fact, there is nothing to answer, Mr. "Liberator"? Any attacker, an aggressor always says that he is a liberator.
  12. Aleksandr1971
    Aleksandr1971 1 December 2021 10: 34
    -3
    The article is fundamentally wrong.
    Russia does not have to occupy Ukraine in whole or in part. It is enough for 2-3 months to destroy in the air its Armed Forces, power plants, dams, bridges, government buildings. And in 2-3 months Ukraine will turn into Libya.
    1. El Barto
      El Barto 1 December 2021 11: 58
      0
      Unfortunately, this will not work. Ukraine has a fairly powerful air defense grouping. In terms of the number of air defense systems, it is approximately equal to the air defense of the FRG, and in terms of quality, it is in many ways superior.

      So a ground operation is indispensable.
      1. Dali
        Dali 4 December 2021 21: 15
        0
        I think it's not about the air defense of the outskirts ... in the sense of why a ground operation might be necessary.
        As for the air defense of the outskirts, it will be promptly extinguished.
    2. Fyn
      Fyn 1 December 2021 15: 17
      +3
      and why do I need Libya at my side?
    3. paul3390
      paul3390 1 December 2021 15: 18
      +1
      Why?? It is enough to close the border and finally stop trading with an openly hostile regime. And - how long will Nenka hold out without supplies from the Russian Federation?
      1. your1970
        your1970 1 December 2021 22: 40
        +2
        Quote: paul3390

        Why?? It is enough to close the border and finally stop trading with an openly hostile regime. And - how long will Nenka hold out without supplies from the Russian Federation?

        Exactly the same thing was said by the 404 country about the Crimea - they say "how long will the Crimea be part of Russia without water and electricity?"
        1. paul3390
          paul3390 1 December 2021 22: 45
          0
          Compared - Tsegabonia and Crimea! All of Russia stood behind Crimea, which still has some opportunities! But where will the nezalezhnaya take, for example, electricity, fuels and lubricants and energy resources - I would like to listen ..
          1. your1970
            your1970 2 December 2021 06: 03
            0
            We will not be able to stop supplying electricity - the unified energy system of the USSR will not allow it. This is not gas - you will not close the tap. For the rest, it will be exactly the same as now .... we have not been selling diesel fuel with them for a long time ..
            The question is that the more we create problems, the worse the local population will treat us. When a certain level is reached, the occupation will become meaningless.
    4. Ivan1779
      Ivan1779 4 December 2021 22: 26
      0
      Correct thought, you are well done. I think about the same - there will be no seizure, occupation, etc. Most likely, they will lure the Ukrainian army closer to the border and deliver a massive strike with cruise missiles, tactical missiles, MLRS and artillery. Moreover, a blow only to the military, so as not to outrage public opinion.
  13. Alexey RA
    Alexey RA 1 December 2021 11: 03
    +3
    And the main question posed by the lieutenant colonel: how should NATO react to such an outrage? Either to start a nuclear Apocalypse, or to launch a counteroffensive (which implies large losses of the alliance), or to spit and recognize Russia's aggression as a fait accompli.

    Well this is a classic - nuclear deterrence:
  14. Siberian54
    Siberian54 1 December 2021 11: 52
    +4
    I read to "Ukraine is the largest state in Europe" and got bored.
  15. Bratkov Oleg
    Bratkov Oleg 1 December 2021 12: 21
    +4
    Even tomorrow, Russia may occupy the Baltic states, Ukraine, and NATO, led by the United States, will bark a little and shut up. Well, a couple of US officials will be banned from traveling.
    Well, remember, just that all this has already happened. Russia occupied Crimea, the most important strategic area in the Black Sea, after the Dardanelles, and what, the war began? Absolutely the same will happen with the introduction of troops into the Baltics and Ukraine.
    The question is completely different, the question is in the partisan war, namely, in the support of the population. Look at the vote in Ukraine in 1991, in Crimea it was 50-50, and all other regions, including Donetsk, 80 percent or more for secession from Russia. Well, half of the Ukrainians took a dare, and changed their minds ... So, in Crimea, 99 percent is for Russia, but in the same Donetsk 50x50 now, they themselves want to live, and not as part of Russia.
    And if there is no support from the population, then you can meddle in another country only if you have very good reasons for this. For example, in Afghanistan, the government was removed, and troops were brought in so that the United States could not deploy Pershing-2 there. In the Crimea, the United States could concentrate sea-based cruise missiles, and, of course, Crimea is again Russian.
    Why fight with Ukraine? It is necessary to complete contracts for the supply of gas through its territory, and she will creep in. What Gazprom is doing methodically.
    1. viktortarianik
      viktortarianik 9 December 2021 08: 53
      0
      Have you ever looked at the voting figures in Russia. And it was Russia that adopted the declaration of independence before Ukraine. Independence from whom? You have read the text that was proposed in the referendums, what can you say about this? People had a complete lack of understanding of what was happening. Do you remember the euphoria of those who voted for Yeltsin? Sobering up came later.
      1. Bratkov Oleg
        Bratkov Oleg 18 December 2021 11: 32
        0
        viktortarianik (Victor), in the RSFSR 74 percent of the population voted for the preservation of the USSR, and Ukraine, with the exception of Crimea, 90 percent for secession.
  16. SKVichyakow
    SKVichyakow 1 December 2021 12: 31
    0
    In this way, stuffing is done to test our capabilities: combat, rear. This allows you to make the correct calculations in the future. Nothing changes.
    1. Andrey Moskvin
      Andrey Moskvin 1 December 2021 16: 29
      +2
      I mean, stuffing in the expectation that they will learn the truth from Skomorokhov?
      1. Asad
        Asad 3 December 2021 02: 22
        0
        During the discussion, interesting details can always emerge.
  17. Vladimir61
    Vladimir61 1 December 2021 12: 33
    +4
    One thing can stop Russia!
    Leave Russia behind, live on your "collective farm", give birth to children or individuals without sex, drown with gas or manure, eat with or without GMOs, fight whites against colored people and vice versa, choose the power you deserve.
    You are not interesting to us!
    1. Victorio
      Victorio 1 December 2021 14: 44
      -2
      Quote: Vladimir61
      One thing can stop Russia!
      Leave Russia behind, live on your "collective farm", give birth to children or individuals without sex, drown with gas or manure, eat with or without GMOs, fight whites against colored people and vice versa, choose the power you deserve.
      You are not interesting to us!

      ===
      for us, yes, but for a considerable number of people, young people, including in Russia itself, it is no longer quite so, the priorities, the realities of modern life affect. both interesting and tempting.
  18. fax66
    fax66 1 December 2021 13: 26
    +6
    The topic is just for sofa strategists. With the same success, you can consider options about Georgia, the Baltic States, Moldova, and "maybe Poland too !!!" ... then whoever has enough imagination for what.
    I very much hope (not unreasonably) that no one will send troops to Ukraine. Aviation, missile strikes, maximum - active DRG actions. Testing tactics and new types of weapons. Unless, of course, Russia has to intervene ...
    The rest should be completed by the Ukrainians themselves, led by the LPNR. Russia has nothing to do in Ukraine now.
  19. Vl-r Al-v
    Vl-r Al-v 1 December 2021 13: 35
    +2
    ... the Russian government has created an army ideal for an active defense strategy. The Russian armed forces are capable of conducting hostilities on their territory or near their borders, as well as carrying out long-range strike operations.

    It is clear that this ANALYTIC simply stupidly fulfills the fee. Although he is trying to ANALYZE the options for the "invasion of Russia" into the countries he writes about, one line in his writings crosses out all the wet mriya of the West and the countries mentioned.
    RUSSIA IS NOT GOING TO INVOLVE ANYWHERE !!! And our President, Minister of Defense, Minister of Foreign Affairs are trying to reach out to the rudiments of the cerebellum of stupid embittered Western politicians. But our words to them are like rams a computer room, because the Light of Peace and Freedom (which has about 800 military bases around the world) tells them to blame Russia. The Master's instruction for them is a LAW that cannot be discussed.
  20. BAI
    BAI 1 December 2021 15: 48
    +2
    And the author himself served in what army? According to the Charter, the movement of motor transport convoys is carried out at a speed of 60 km per hour. Not more than 72.
  21. zenion
    zenion 1 December 2021 16: 05
    +4
    Russia from an attack on Ukraine can be stopped by the fear that Ukraine may surrender and everyone will have to be fed, as before the divorce.
  22. Ivan1779
    Ivan1779 1 December 2021 16: 17
    +4
    We should thank Roman for drawing the audience's attention to the good site "Warontherocks" in general and Colonel Vershinin's article in particular. The article is very interesting and relevant, written by a military professional and deserves a must-read. Unfortunately, Roman's answer, in my opinion, is no good, it's some kind of rehearsal of Caruso over the phone, made by the burly and googly Rabinovich from an anecdote.
  23. boris epstein
    boris epstein 1 December 2021 17: 48
    +3
    As far as I know, a deep operation is being carried out at a depth of 400-450 km. During the operation in Iraq, the American army covered about 500 km, but there was no longer any serious resistance. If it was already to invade Ukraine, then from three directions - from the Crimea, from Belarus and from Russia. Just all of Ukraine.
    "If there is no base, there is no way to attack. This was proven back in 1944, when Soviet troops stood on the outskirts of Warsaw." Right. But before reaching Warsaw, the Red Army covered as much as 600 km during Operation Bagration. Moreover, the APU is far from the Wehrmacht. Not surprisingly, the rear lagged behind.
    About MTO brigades. As far as I know from my service in the ranks of the Soviet Army, in addition to MTO brigades, each ground division had its own autobat and its own rembat. About trucks. It will be required to be mobilized from the national economy. Together with the drivers. But I think it won't come to that.
    1. Ivan1779
      Ivan1779 1 December 2021 18: 27
      +1
      Boris, you are right in thinking. I recommend that you read Vershinin's article; In short, what does he write about? He examines (hypothetically) whether the Russian army can carry out a quick, almost lightning-fast seizure of a certain, sufficiently large territory (the Baltic countries in 3 days, for example), by analogy with the seizure of Crimea; to be in time before the moment of mobilization and transfer of NATO troops; he proves that the Russian army at the moment, in its current state, cannot do this. He makes very simple logistical considerations. I will not retell the article, read it yourself, but indeed, the Russian army is chained to the railroad.
      1. boris epstein
        boris epstein 1 December 2021 19: 25
        0
        In three days the Baltics and who will resist there? Bundeswehr tank battalion? But the US Marines are all *** in Riga and all the corners and a fountain. Are you sure the local population is delighted? And how do you like the exercises this year, when troops from the Far East were quickly deployed to Belarus? Or are the Western armies not deploying their troops by rail? Or look for a video where American tanks did not pass in size under a road bridge in Poland. And the Baltic railways are already coffin. And do not forget about the Russian aviation with Zircons (they are already on the conveyor belt) and Iskander.
      2. Dmitry V.
        Dmitry V. 2 December 2021 13: 25
        0
        Quote: Ivan1779
        I will not retell the article, read it yourself, but indeed, the Russian army is chained to the railroad.


        The RF Armed Forces within the country are more profitable to transfer equipment and MTS by railway transport over distances of more than 700 km - this is less load on the roads.
        From supply bases on the border to operational (forward) bases - move faster with mobilized or contracted vehicles.
        From operational bases to troop concentration areas - by MTO battalions - by regular military units.
        A clear supply chain.
        1. Ivan1779
          Ivan1779 2 December 2021 21: 12
          0
          You are absolutely right. Indeed, given the enormous size of our country, the transfer of troops by rail is faster, more convenient and more economical. Problems arise when you need to move 150-200 kilometers from the railway station.
          Vershinin writes: "The Russian government has built armed forces highly capable of fighting on home soil or near its frontier and striking deep with long-range fires. However, they are not capable of a sustained ground offensive far beyond Russian railroads without a major logistical halt or a massive mobilization of reserves. " That is, this departure from the railway is no longer possible without long (for several days) stops in the offensive or without the massive mobilization of people and equipment, because there will not be enough staff resources.
          1. zenion
            zenion 6 December 2021 18: 24
            0
            Russia does not want to feed Ukraine, why the hell would she feed the Baltic states. Let them live on tulka and mulka.
  24. Tektor
    Tektor 1 December 2021 18: 32
    -1
    The territory of Bukry is a huge liability. And she is not needed nafig. It is needed only because it would not create a threat. Therefore, we need to maintain the current state of bukra as long as possible. When it is actively self-reducing: we will not be able to reduce the volume at such a rate. It's another matter if Bukra starts vile actions against the citizens of Russia, for example, in Transnistria. At this point, it is necessary to completely cut off any supplies and transit, and to bombard missiles and drones without coming into contact.
    1. zenion
      zenion 8 December 2021 15: 34
      0
      I consulted with myself, we decided - it is not worth it and there is no need to start. After all, then you will have to feed Bandera, and they have already been fed, not in the horse feed. And we decided, let Ukraine do without capture and captivity, let them feed themselves, or let the USAs feed them, they won't be enough for a long time. The current Ukraine is cursed by someone. You must first remove the curse from her, and then send.
  25. 75 Sergey
    75 Sergey 1 December 2021 19: 22
    +1
    There is only one thing to stop if Ukraine does not attack Russia first.
  26. Fisherman
    Fisherman 1 December 2021 19: 24
    -3
    Fuel and food in the EU is easier to get hold of a steamed turnip, only ammunition and spare parts for equipment will remain. In the EU, the roads are no longer the same as in the Second World War, along the Autobahn and on a tank turbine ... it will ... it will be ... the crazy range of the first throw!
  27. Siegfried
    Siegfried 2 December 2021 01: 26
    +1
    a large-scale invasion of Russia is the most unfavorable scenario - the world media will be covered with an avalanche of videos of the convoys of Russian troops, they will be filmed on phones, spreading them to the network. This will significantly help the West to support the narrative of "Russian aggression". Let us recall the footage of a Russian tank column in the Georgian conflict, which CNN and all others played on an endless replay in a separate window on the news screen (for hours!). It would be nice if the RF Armed Forces, if the need arose, could inflict sudden and devastating damage on the Air Force and artillery forces that had already decently invaded the DPR and LPR units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Helicopters can especially show themselves if they are used in sufficient numbers + artillery gunners / UAVs and special forces to identify targets. Such a "judgment night" will demoralize even the second echelon of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they will be afraid to move forward and will be even more afraid of nightfall. The defeated units on the territory of the DPR and LPR must be quickly neutralized by the forces of the republics, while they have not yet recovered from the shock.
    It will be difficult for the Western media to blind Russian aggression out of this. there will be little video and there will be no Russian invasion itself either. And the main Russian participation will end before it even really started. It is necessary to destroy absolutely everything that is on the territory of the DPR and LPR overnight, otherwise the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will come to their senses, receive reinforcements, and then the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation cannot do without.
    (now it is already possible to install hidden cameras everywhere on trees with autonomous power supply, reliable communication with the center, in order to see more at one moment)
  28. fif21
    fif21 2 December 2021 02: 33
    0
    Withdrawal of NATO troops to their locations in the EU in 1991. All other options are regarded as preparation for war with the Russian Federation. Fashington must be destroyed. hi
  29. Alexey Lamonov
    Alexey Lamonov 2 December 2021 07: 06
    +1
    What can get in the way is a simple chronic reluctance to attack.
  30. 2112vda
    2112vda 2 December 2021 07: 32
    -1
    Quote: Carat
    Millions of Bandera members simply fled to Poland until the Ukrainians hanged them.

    Here you need to understand the definitions. Banderovets = Ukrainian, Little Russians are not Ukrainian, ho-x-ly citizens of Russia, historically living in the southern regions of Russia and being the descendants of the Zaporozhye Cossacks. Everything else is from the evil one. The Ukrainians outweigh the Bandera supporters in one case if they commit collective suicide on the Gilyak by hanging. You shouldn't hope.
    1. Koliadazt
      Koliadazt 6 December 2021 08: 48
      0
      Well, not all Ukrainians are Bandera, basically this is a new generation, which really did not live in the USSR or was born after its collapse, and those who had a chance to live at least a little bit mostly support Russia
  31. bistrov.
    bistrov. 2 December 2021 07: 49
    0
    They do not "attack" their land, they liberate their land ...
  32. Dmitry V.
    Dmitry V. 2 December 2021 13: 10
    0
    That is, the Russian army, crossing the border, at the first stage of its offensive, will not experience problems, however, the further the offensive develops, the more pauses will have to be made to pull up the rear and supply troops.


    That is, the expert does not suspect that all freight transport is registered with the military registration and enlistment offices of the Russian Federation and can be mobilized?
    To build up the automotive logistics grouping to supply forward bases using mobilized or contracted civil trucks - this can be done both in advance and promptly in the required amount of vehicles.
    We read the documents:
    Appendix N 2. The procedure for accounting for vehicles provided to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, other troops, military formations and bodies, as well as special formations created for wartime

    as well as II. Accounting for vehicles in the military commissariats of municipalities.
    Order of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation of March 14, 2014 No. 151 "On approval of the List of vehicles provided to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, other troops, military formations and bodies, as well as special formations created for wartime, and the Procedure for accounting for vehicles provided to the Armed To the forces of the Russian Federation, other troops, military formations and bodies, as well as special formations created for wartime "(did not enter into force)
    August 11 2014
    In accordance with clauses 7 and 8 of the Regulations on military transport duty, approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated October 2, 1998 No. 1175 "On approval of the Regulations on military transport duty" (Collected Legislation of the Russian Federation, 1998, No. 40, art. 4941), I order:

    1. To approve:

    The list of vehicles provided to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, other troops, military formations and bodies, as well as special formations created for wartime (Appendix No. 1 to this order);


    So the Russian army is able to mobilize 2020 trucks at the beginning of 2 (as stated in the Autostat Info study). In the volume of the entire truck fleet, foreign cars account for 565%, and Russian equipment - 114%
    1. Ivan1779
      Ivan1779 2 December 2021 21: 25
      -1
      Yes, it all looks smooth on paper, but try to imagine it all in reality. Imagine, you are the general in charge of mobilization, you need to mobilize 2 thousand trucks and 10 thousand truck drivers in, say, 20 months. How will you do it? Declare martial law? Summon reservists? (And if they don’t come to the recruiting offices? Will you introduce military courts? And how will the people react to this? People will not like it, to put it mildly.) Seize equipment from private firms or state-owned enterprises? And how will our economy, our industry work without transport?
      These 2.5 million trucks, this is probably everything, from Gazelles to Caterpillars, the whole assorted fleet. And you need domestic-made machines of the same type, where can you get them?
      1. Ivan1779
        Ivan1779 2 December 2021 21: 47
        -1
        "That is, the expert does not suspect that all freight transport is registered with the military registration and enlistment offices of the Russian Federation and can be mobilized?"
        To build up the automotive logistics grouping to supply forward bases using mobilized or contracted civilian trucks - this can be done both in advance and promptly in the required amount of vehicles. "
        Russia is not the USSR, all this registration of both people and equipment is now practically not conducted, and if it is, it is formally. It is impossible to pick up people or transport "in advance", they are not available, they are busy with something. If the truck and the driver are mobilized, who will bring food to your Pyaterochka in the morning?
        1. Dali
          Dali 4 December 2021 21: 47
          -1
          Quote: Ivan1779
          If the truck and the driver are mobilized, then who will bring food to your Pyaterochka in the morning?

          And what, more than how to mobilize trucks carrying goods to Pyaterochka, no longer where?
          1. Ivan1779
            Ivan1779 4 December 2021 22: 19
            0
            No where, no place at all. There are no warehouses with trucks anywhere.
            1. olegjuriewitch
              olegjuriewitch 5 December 2021 20: 09
              +1
              Yes, we are here talking so dashingly about logistics and other support for the army, as if tomorrow on horseback and the seizure of Ukraine. It is better to discuss this topic with those who dream and dream about how hordes of Russian military are tormenting the lands of the independent.
              Do we need this?
              1. meandr51
                meandr51 8 December 2021 12: 35
                0
                What's the difference - is it necessary or not? This issue is not discussed here. This is a purely military resource. The military should have realistic plans just in case.
  33. kytx
    kytx 5 December 2021 23: 30
    0
    Quote: Aleksandr1971
    The article is fundamentally wrong.
    Russia does not have to occupy Ukraine in whole or in part. It is enough for 2-3 months to destroy in the air its Armed Forces, power plants, dams, bridges, government buildings. And in 2-3 months Ukraine will turn into Libya.

    And why do we need such a kipish? You are sick?
    Let's go straight to Voronezh! What is already there.
    1. meandr51
      meandr51 8 December 2021 12: 33
      0
      Well, fuck it. If possible...
      1. kytx
        kytx 8 December 2021 22: 45
        0
        "bomb Voronezh" is a common phrase from an anecdote if you don't know
  34. minby
    minby 6 December 2021 04: 15
    0
    "expert" Vershinin would not disgrace himself.
  35. Alexfly
    Alexfly 6 December 2021 12: 17
    0
    What will stop Russia from attacking? Business .. All this business of the Russian Federation is registered offshore, at the beginning of hostilities it will be shut down ... This will end the hostilities .. besides, the stratification of society (castes will probably appear in the near future) will in no way contribute to the fighting spirit ... If the rich don't care, then the poor won't give a damn about sweating for the rich ... The middle class in the Russian Federation disappeared before it appeared, and any society rests on this ..
  36. lubesky
    lubesky 7 December 2021 02: 50
    0
    If we take a railway junction, for example, in Brest as a starting point (you understand why), then 200 km from Brest along not the worst roads - it will be a town like Warsaw. The fact that in Brest you can find a considerable number of locomotives and bogies for the European gauge, I am simply silent.

    I remember that in Halder's diaries, in the records reflecting August 1940, there are entries about the reflections and serious fears of the German military about the wider gauge of railway tracks in the USSR. The problem of military logistics was discussed. And as the author of this article, in the end, they came to the conclusion that in the first weeks of the war they would capture a sufficient number of Soviet locomotives and carts ...
  37. Altmann
    Altmann 7 December 2021 15: 03
    0
    The whole article, its conclusions scared me. I thought that Russia would write clearly: “Americans, you go to běžte do prodele ..
  38. meandr51
    meandr51 8 December 2021 12: 30
    0
    What difference does it make who wins on the battlefield in a foreign country? The main thing is the picture on TV. And they will provide it.
  39. pomor23
    pomor23 8 December 2021 18: 47
    0
    I could have captured the whole of Dill with my army, bang Iskander around Kiev or knock down Bayraktars ... I could ... but not hunt ...)))
  40. glum
    glum 10 December 2021 13: 59
    0
    And why should Russia be afraid to attack / conquer Ukraine at all? Is someone calling her there? And open invasion of troops is aggression, war, who needs it? To satisfy the ambitions of a handful of people at the top, who at the first opportunity will be dumped away. So that you all want to fight? Everyone knows the consequences of wars. After them, there are no winners / losers; as a result, all the losers in the war. If anyone is offended, I apologize, you can not enter into correspondence. This is purely my opinion and I do not impose it on anyone.
    1. vervolk
      vervolk 16 December 2021 17: 35
      -1
      in every war there are always winners and losers. and there is no need to generalize. the leadership of the Russian Federation has nowhere to dump. they are all under sanctions and there is clearly no property and accounts abroad9 if there was Western propaganda and internal opposition, I would have presented it long ago)
      1. glum
        glum 18 December 2021 18: 11
        0
        Yes Yes ))