On the problem of imports: the situation with import substitution in Russia today

54

When it comes to foreign sanctions against Russia, the question of the need to implement import substitution projects is most often raised. This issue was especially relevant in 2014-2015, when Russia suddenly faced large-scale restrictions, including the supply of various kinds of high-tech components. At that time, it turned out to be fashionable among officials to indicate in their reports how actively one or another industry had "substituted import".

Today, the issue of import substitution is raised less and less. In theory, this should indicate that the markets are simply filled with domestic products. However, this, as it turns out, is far from the case. Many companies, and even officials, understood the task of import substitution not in the sense of starting to produce their own, but to replace some suppliers with others. For example, until 2014, oranges with olives were supplied mainly from Spain and Greece; after 2014, similar products from Tunisia or Egypt began to appear more often. Components for computer equipment made in Japan were "imported" for versions from South Korea and Taiwan.



Sometimes it comes to an outright absurdity when this or that gadget has almost completely Taiwanese filling, while it is designated as "Russian", since the company has entered into an agreement and releases it under a Russian brand.

On the one hand, it is impossible to completely abandon imports and, by and large, it is stupid. However, on the other hand, the greater the dependence on imports, the greater the dependence on external factors for the entire domestic economy. Have you found a middle ground. Journalist Konstantin Semin in this regard speaks extremely harshly, believing that no.

On the issue of imports to the Russian Federation:

54 comments
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  1. The comment was deleted.
  2. nnm
    +7
    19 November 2021 14: 56
    In fairness, I must say that all such an American IPhone inside is also far from stars and stripes.
    The same American missiles on the RD180 are not attributed to Russia, etc.
    We need to look at the problem more broadly - we need to develop our own production of microelectronics. And then such a sea of ​​money was sent to Skolkovo that it would have been possible to buy AMD and Intel, but things are still there ...
    1. Kaw
      +15
      19 November 2021 15: 11
      Quote: nnm
      that all such an American IPhone inside is also far from being stars and stripes.

      The iPhone was developed in the USA and the technology for its production is in the USA. Can the same be said about these same supercomputers?
      1. -7
        19 November 2021 16: 05
        Quote: Kaw
        The iPhone was developed in the USA and the technology for its production is in the USA.

        That is why Intel lagged behind TSMC and Samsung in technology laughing
        1. +15
          19 November 2021 16: 20
          Which, in turn, sit tightly on Dutch technologies, which have a monopoly on machines for the production of modern processors, and those, in turn, sit tightly on American technologies that form the basis of these machines. Such are the rehearsals.
          1. -5
            19 November 2021 18: 06
            Quote: BlackMokona
            sit tightly on Dutch technology, which has a monopoly on machine tools for the production of modern processors, and they, in turn, sit tightly on American technologies that form the basis of these machines.

            Technologies are tested in production: in advanced production. There is little pure science, there is a selection / enumeration of various options.
          2. -1
            20 November 2021 18: 56
            And American technologies are developed by programmers Indians, Chinese, Russians ... The first Pentium processor was invented by the Soviet scientist Pentkovsky, who moved to the US BY EXCHANGE. His own, American in these technologies is only money and management. During perestroika and during the collapse of the USSR, hundreds of former Soviet scientists left for the United States with knowledge and best practices. With all the development of technologies in the United States, they lag behind Russia in missile defense, air defense, electronic warfare, hypersound.
            And this has always been the case. The atomic bomb for the United States was developed by the Hungarian Leo Szilard, the German Albert Einstein, the Dane Niels Bohr, British scientists ... The Nazi Werner von Braun put the rocketry for the United States on its feet. The United States took a lot of documentation from Germany after the First (primarily in chemistry and metallurgy) and Second World Wars. The Alsos mission rode ahead of their advancing troops, rummaged through libraries, universities, searched for and took out scientists and designers to the United States.
            1. +1
              22 November 2021 10: 33
              "the Pentium processor was invented by the Soviet scientist Pentkovsky, who left for EXCHANGE in the USA"
              Tell your grandchildren about Pentkovsky. the previous processor was the 486, the next was the 586, or the fifth, Pentium. Pentkovsky, by any chance, was it the Intel name?
              1. +2
                23 November 2021 07: 46
                And x86, 286, 386 are generally developments of the USSR.)))))
    2. -5
      19 November 2021 15: 15
      Quote: nnm
      We need to look at the problem more broadly - we need to develop our own production of microelectronics.

      Microelectronics is by far the most acute problem .. BUT how many years have we been talking about this? And only blah .. blah .. But in other respects it is uzooos .. terrible .. with whom the state can fight, when on average by 80% .. depends on all categories .. from "hostile" countries. How can you puff out your cheeks, knowing the true state of affairs? Let's imagine a war tomorrow .. so we are 74% import-dependent in products .. why fight with us .. they just won't sell us anything and everyone will die of hunger ..
      So all this is a show..I mean the intensity of passions with the USA..NATO .. ​​and there and we all understand perfectly well .. that the Russian Federation is a colony .. and it is beneficial for the USA to have such a president in the Russian Federation..the Congress even helps them .. to raise Putin's rating by the next "elections".
      1. -2
        19 November 2021 15: 29
        What products are we 74 percent dependent on?
        1. -4
          19 November 2021 15: 42
          Quote: Andrey VOV
          What products are we 74 percent dependent on?

          Andrey well, you said in Russian. By
          Quote: Svarog
          74%.
          products! Do you not believe something svarogu? Ayyayay feel
          1. +5
            19 November 2021 16: 01
            Quote: Edik
            Andrey well, you said in Russian. By
            Quote: Svarog
            74%.

            The transition of Gazprom to the use of Russian software (software) and equipment will require from 180 billion rubles, which will lead to risks of deterioration in financial performance. The head of the company, Alexei Miller, wrote about this in a letter to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. from the draft decree, the specific time frame for the transition to Russian software and equipment. The transition to Russian software is scheduled until January 1, 2024, and equipment - until 2025. " Without water. You can continue to laugh.
            1. -9
              19 November 2021 17: 24
              Quote: WIKI
              The transition of Gazprom to the use of Russian software (software) and equipment will require from 180 billion rubles,

              Last year was unprofitable for Gazprom, and so it is traded.
              But they will still ask him, Gazprom has money .. I generally agree that in the conditions of sanctions and a pandemic, we have nothing to rejoice at, by and large, but I don't think there is any need to speculate on these topics.
        2. +1
          19 November 2021 16: 02
          Quote: Andrey VOV
          What products are we 74 percent dependent on?

          - Spanish wine
          - scotch whiskey
          - Swiss chocolate
          - Swedish surstroemming
          1. -2
            19 November 2021 22: 47
            Let's not forget the Icelandic hakarl!
            1. 0
              19 November 2021 22: 57
              Quote: El Chuvachino
              Let's not forget the Icelandic hakarl!

              well, this is only for the Rurik on the table
          2. 0
            23 November 2021 12: 17
            And where is the problem here?
            - Scotch whiskey - will be poured at the KIN distillery without any problems;
            - Spanish wine - they will supply underground workshops in Crimea;
            - and rotting herring, we know how better than the Swedes.
      2. +3
        19 November 2021 15: 29
        So you think that the proposal of the Congress not to recognize Putin's legitimacy in case of re-election is just a PR campaign in favor of Putin ?!
        And I thought .......
        Yes. We will not see import substitution as our own ears.
        1. +1
          19 November 2021 15: 35
          Quote: prior
          So you think that the proposal of the Congress not to recognize Putin's legitimacy in case of re-election is just a PR campaign in favor of Putin ?!
          And I thought .......
          Yes. We will not see import substitution as our own ears.

          That's exactly what I think .. Putin is completely satisfied with them .. just like Yeltsin .. All this is a game for the layman .. and in parallel, the world is being remade ..
          1. +5
            19 November 2021 15: 37
            If you only knew how I agree with you! hi
          2. -6
            19 November 2021 18: 20
            What is the name of who instead of Putin?
          3. +1
            23 November 2021 11: 17
            You will be minus.
            Because most people are absolutely sure that they are smarter than everyone else, and do not even admit the idea that politicians, having enormous financial and media opportunities, can be smarter than them and deceive them.
            I remember Sobchak went to the presidential elections. Both in the media space and among my friends there was a common opinion: "well, tuuuupaya ... Does she not understand that she will not be chosen?"
            And no one even admitted the thought that she did not even plan to be elected, but on the contrary, with her appearance, she should emphasize the dignity of another candidate. Indeed, against the background of "well tuuuupoy" even an ordinary person seems to be a genius.
          4. 0
            23 November 2021 16: 50
            Quote: Svarog
            Quote: prior
            So you think that the proposal of the Congress not to recognize Putin's legitimacy in case of re-election is just a PR campaign in favor of Putin ?!
            And I thought .......
            Yes. We will not see import substitution as our own ears.

            That's exactly what I think .. Putin is completely satisfied with them .. just like Yeltsin .. All this is a game for the layman .. and in parallel, the world is being remade ..

            You cut off their choice - it remains either - or .....
            That is, if there is Putin, then they will have to say- "We are here a little in the names obos..eeee..mistake and there must be Medvedev in the resolution !!!" ???? !!!
            Is it too expensive a gift for competitors in Congress??
      3. -5
        19 November 2021 15: 32
        Bravo Svarog good
        You do everything: drinks
        Disassemble you by cogs or something? what
      4. 0
        19 November 2021 15: 37
        And several citizens gave you a minus. They do not consider themselves servants and colonialists.
      5. -4
        19 November 2021 15: 50
        Quote: Svarog
        their Congress even helps .. Putin's rating to raise for the next "elections".

        Yes, yeah .... The more they commit suicide, the higher Putin becomes.
        May it help them .... so that they help Putin more.
    3. -1
      19 November 2021 15: 47
      Quote: nnm
      And then such a sea of ​​money was sent to Skolkovo that one could already buy AMD and Intel, but things are still there ...

      Do not use your hands and they will not suspect you as a foxglove! stop
      Just tell me the amount, how much was spent and how much does Steud cost?
    4. +8
      19 November 2021 16: 21
      And then such a sea of ​​money was sent to Skolkovo that one could already buy AMD and Intel, but things are still there ...


      Russia would not have enough money for Intel with AMD, even in a club with China, simply because no one would sell it.
      But by the way, if you count how much Intel invests in RD every year. since 2013, this amount exceeds $ 10 billion per year and in 2020 it was $ 13 billion.
      https://www.statista.com/statistics/263562/intel-expenditure-on-research-and-development-since-2004/

      if you look at the Skolkovo budget, just the news from 2013:

      MOSCOW, August 1. / ITAR-TASS /. Financing of the subprogram for the development of Skolkovo until 2020 will amount to 502 billion rubles, of which budget -135,6 billion rubles, said the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Alexei Ulyukaev at a government meeting.

      "It is assumed that the total amount of funding will be 502 billion rubles," he said. "Of these, 73% are extra-budgetary funding, 27% are federal budget funds." Thus, it is planned to allocate 135,6 billion rubles from the budget, said Ulyukaev.

      "The volume of private investment in innovative companies by 2020 will amount to 25 billion rubles of annual volume. The integrated contribution of projects to the economy will amount to 200 billion rubles. The annual revenue of partner companies will be up to 100 billion rubles," he said.


      https://tass.ru/glavnie-novosti/557239

      that is, Intel has only an annual budget for cutting, comparable to the entire Skolkoy budget for seven years. And if at the current exchange rate, Intel spends more on cutting in a year than all Skolkovo in seven years.
    5. 0
      20 November 2021 17: 01
      nnm. Or maybe they bought it, but they continue to do it for those who pay more. Of course, not everything to Americans, everything that has not passed the test is much more expensive in price for Russia. They won't know what to do with them anyway. What is the difference whether they are workers or is it a marriage, they still cannot use it. They do not know from which end the first leg is and in which direction to count, or not to count. It all ends with words - oops, again inserted incorrectly.
  3. 0
    19 November 2021 14: 57
    On the one hand, it is impossible to completely abandon imports and, by and large, it is stupid.

    And I believe that it is necessary to completely abandon imports. Just to continue to be invulnerable to such tricks. True, in order to replace the most high-tech moments in this way, one will have to invest heavily in education, science and industry, and raise the level of citizens so that there is effective demand ... But no one will go for this, because the poverty of the people is one of the main pillars of power.
    1. -3
      19 November 2021 16: 25
      Take on electronics
      Quote: Basarev
      And I believe that it is necessary to completely abandon imports. Just to continue to be invulnerable to such tricks.

      Quote: Basarev
      But no one will agree to this, because the poverty of the people is one of the main pillars of power.

      Began in health and finished for the repose?

      In Russia, the turn has come to microelectronics.
      There are developments of their own microprocessors and controllers. Now it is necessary to organize production on the territory of Russia. Therefore, work is now underway to develop its own equipment and materials.
      Initially, we are talking about small-scale production for the release of stage batches for crystal developers (MCST, Baikal, ...), prototypes and custom-made piece products (space, military).
      Look for information on the topic: "Maskless X-ray Lithography".
      For seed:
      https://www.roseltorg.ru/procedure/0173100009521000167
      http://www.pnn.unn.ru/studies/research/chkhalo
      https://zen.yandex.ru/media/electromozg/sobiraetsia-li-rossiia-sama-delat-oborudovanie-dlia-proizvodstva-chipov-po-normam-28-nm-i-menee-6182a2367d6b0c1641f6fd2c
    2. +8
      19 November 2021 16: 30
      And I believe that it is necessary to completely abandon imports. Just to continue to be invulnerable to such tricks.


      This may be strategically necessary, but in reality it is impossible and detrimental to the economy and the country as a whole. You need to be a couple of steps ahead of everyone in technological and competitive development, which is not even close to the United States. Therefore, it is necessary to set more realistic goals, microelectronics for the military-industrial complex should have its own, but by the way, it does not yet require 5nm technical processes and the military does not need all these smooth scrolls, which spend computing resources.

      But no one will agree to this, because the poverty of the people is one of the main pillars of power.


      There is no primary thing here that it is simply impossible and meaningless, to compete alone with the whole world and in all industries is an occupation that is doomed to failure in advance.
    3. +1
      19 November 2021 21: 55
      Quote: Basarev
      I believe that completely avoiding imports is necessary

      And I think so, but it's not real. Even the mighty Union, straining all its forces, could not completely abandon imports. In the realities of modern Russia, this is absolutely unrealistic, absolutely.
    4. +2
      19 November 2021 21: 59
      This self-styled primitive will be expensive. For the reason that R&D costs are included in each product. The less produced in pieces, the greater the share of R&D.
      EXAMPLE:
      Let's say I have an IDEA. I spent 1 tugriks and brought the idea to industrial production. The production itself costs 000 tugriks apiece. At what price should I sell to recoup costs?
      Option 1: I will sell 1000 pcs. Then the minimum price is 2000 MNT (1000 production and 1000 R&D)
      Option 2: I will sell 10 pieces, then the minimum price is 000 tugriks (1100 production and 1000 R&D). If we take into account discounts for wholesale and such a thing as technological preparation of production, then you can shrink up to 100.
      I was told this at the institute in a non-core economics for my specialty.
      And there will not be enough resources to develop ALL directions of resources.
    5. 0
      19 November 2021 22: 48
      Quote: Basarev
      And I believe that it is necessary to completely abandon imports.

      This is impossible in the modern world.
    6. +2
      20 November 2021 17: 08
      Basarev. It is not that simple. The exhibition and the Russians show their microcircuits. Anyone can come up and look through a microscope what the filling is. People come and look, shrug their shoulders. What did the American specialist think there, you need to look. He went up to the microscope, looked, adjusted his visibility and fainted. And this happens to everyone who understands microcircuits. Finally the American was pumped out and asked what happened to you? He slightly opened his eyes and whispered - microcircuits in Russia on lamps and died.
  4. -6
    19 November 2021 15: 05
    Bravo Semin .. good This is what sane people are constantly talking about here.
    1. -5
      19 November 2021 16: 27
      "Radish" is your Semin. Soon it will finally slide down to the foreign agent.
      1. -1
        19 November 2021 18: 10
        Quote: Genry
        "Radish" is your Semin. Soon it will finally slide down to the foreign agent.

        Yeah .. we have a thief, it means a patriot .. and a patriot-foreigner. ..This is such a state wassat
        1. -5
          19 November 2021 18: 12
          Who is the thief?
          Name, surname ... facts?
          Or do you keep everything secret as an accomplice?
          1. -5
            19 November 2021 18: 25
            Quote: Genry
            Who is the thief?
            Name, surname ... facts?
            Or do you keep everything secret as an accomplice?

            Yes, you at least .. in the eyes of all the dew of God .. Look at Navalny's investigation .. everything is there with evidence .. and the fact that he was planted confirms that this is all true.
            1. -2
              19 November 2021 18: 42
              Failed?
              He has about those who were caught and put on trial earlier. He only ascribes to himself someone else's work.
              What facts or inquiries did he himself submit to the prosecutor's office?
            2. 0
              19 November 2021 22: 50
              Quote: Svarog
              Look at Navalny's investigation .. everything is there with evidence .. and the fact that he was planted confirms that this is all true.

              Adept-navalnok in our studio, it turns out! The bottom is broken.
            3. +1
              23 November 2021 17: 02
              Quote: Svarog
              the fact that he was planted confirms that this is all true.

              If you planted it, is it all true?out there ....
              How simple it turns out ...
              Then ALL (without exception !!!) the dissidents of the USSR spoke the truth, and Solzhenitsyn was a saint in general.
              They were all imprisoned in the USSR for the stories and evidence of "GULAG / bloody gebni / prison of peoples / etc."
              You just confirmed - that they said, wrote and proved the purest truth about the USSR - they were imprisoned for it ...
              fool
        2. +1
          23 November 2021 09: 38
          Exactly, exactly, "patriot" Rashkin turned out to be a banal thief, and when Semin was asked a specific question about the communist poacher, he began to wag ... instead of answering honestly, he is such a good fellow!
      2. 0
        20 November 2021 12: 20
        Are you afraid that your budget will be cut and transferred to Semin?
  5. +7
    19 November 2021 15: 37
    To tell the truth at the state level is also a force. People listen somewhere in the back streets. And on TV everything is fine. "You look on TV, it's mine. You go out on the street, everything is the same." You need to boast less and do your job calmly.
  6. +2
    19 November 2021 15: 43
    not in the sense of starting to produce your own, but to replace some suppliers with others. For example, until 2014, oranges with olives were supplied mainly from Spain and Greece; after 2014, similar products from Tunisia or Egypt began to appear more often.

    In which region of Russia did the author decide to grow olives with oranges?
    Once upon a time Nikita "jopogoloviy" forced him to grow corn in the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions. The corn did not go. The author hopes the olives will go?
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. +10
    19 November 2021 18: 12
    Let's think about what will happen if the sanctions include an adult. So that even the basic components are not sold. Will the Russian Federation be able to assemble a computer from all its components? Today it will not be able to. Because we don't have all of our looseness and SMD. Even a military one. And such "complex products" as basic logic, FPGAs, ethernet modules, memory modules, ROMs and other components will be scary. The microcontroller is a fairly simple product that does not require a 7nm process technology. And how many of them are produced for the needs of the army?
    Now let's go from the other side. Our metal is smelted at the very least. But now there are difficulties with the products. Because almost 100% of metalworking is carried out on imported machines, which are connected to open communication lines 24/7. And this is guaranteed sabotage at the snap of enemy fingers.
    And what about the drugs? And the same thing. It is unprofitable to produce substances (such spare parts / precursors from which medicines are obtained) in our country - they are bought. What will happen if these substances are not sold to us? Even if you simplify the certification procedure after, then their production will begin in the long term.
    Does our country produce a lot of plastic, polyethylene, PVC, ABS, ABC and others? Yes, too, not enough.
    If tomorrow all greedy guys like Microsoft, Oracle, Autodesk lose their minds and turn off their software, then 90% of offices will face a complete collapse. And if Cisco joins them, then the Internet will also disappear. There are alternatives to all of this, but the cost of ownership is terribly high.
    So if sanctions are cut on an adult, the Russian Federation will have a very difficult time, and in the beginning it will be very bad.
    Well, do not forget that as long as there are no adult sanctions, there is no money on the side of imported bourgeois, because there is a well-established business that is not simply abandoned. And banal bribes / kickbacks in% of the amount of the contract were not taken away by anyone.
    1. AML
      -1
      19 November 2021 20: 30
      And what will happen?
      Autodesku has domestic analogues and is even better.
      Oracle already turned off support and for some reason turned it back on.
      Microsoft - Hmm, how many people here have licensed software? And see above about autodesk and orakl.
      CISCO - irs? there are no other types of routers? D-link will take up the banner, especially since the shredders have been on it for a long time. For example the same Dlink 3520
      Iphone? How much will they look for glass replacement?
      Visa / Mastercard - could have been turned off a long time ago.

      As for the metal, how poorly it is. Boeing and Airbus look at you disapprovingly.

      And if the opposite situation. Disabled the software that runs the valves on the oil / gas pipeline. How long will it take for them to be inserted by the same EU?

      In the era of globalization, sanctions are a double-edged sword. The Russian Federation has gained more than lost from the 2014 sanctions.
      1. -2
        23 November 2021 08: 51
        Iran, which possesses significantly large oil reserves, was forced by sanctions to accept a nuclear deal Just introduced an oil embargo And Russia has only 7% of world reserves Yes, what to go far beyond examples Yesterday Borisov (from the government) was instructed to deal with traffic jams on the border with Poland I don’t take other aspects , but 28 km from the trucks Taking into account the fact that nothing is taken out of Russia on trucks, it means that these trucks are going for something Import Think about it
        1. 0
          23 November 2021 17: 08
          Quote: Sad235
          Taking into account that nothing is taken out of Russia on trucks, it means that these trucks are going for something. Import Think about it

          You forget
          1) about export - it is, maybe a little, but there is
          2) about the transit - which is overdofig
          3) about politics - the embodiment of which was Onishchenko and the tomatoes of Turkey
    2. 0
      23 November 2021 17: 25
      It would be interesting to look at the "adult sanctions". Another mriya? I don't know what kind of computers you are writing about, if desktop computers are out of fashion. Microcontrollers for the Russian army, together with the "loose" on one chip, are completely produced in Russia. If Russia stops supplying aluminum, titanium products, energy uranium, rolled steel, etc. collapse in the States and Europe is assured. Substances for drugs are produced in Russia, and their main production is located in India, which is unlikely to impose sanctions. Imported machines are not connected to open communication lines, there are no fools. The rest is in the same spirit.
  9. +4
    21 November 2021 11: 25
    I'll watch the video and appreciate it.
    Although these bloggers really follow the statistics, the people have no time.

    From what I met earlier, I remember:
    Leslie (with Rybka who) was the deputy director of Skolkovo.
    For some reason, the IT of all kinds of savings banks was expelled to Skolkovo, in order to at least boast of something.
    We were ahead of everyone in the production of wagon wheels. Therefore, the next year they bought them in China, Ukraine and even in the republics of Central Asia.
    The French have canceled the sale of sights for Armat - Armat is still almost mute.
    Rampire Chechen buggies have become invisible - it is impossible to find something about them.
    As reported about the production of new super-glass and super-plastic in aircraft construction, there was a crisis in the native aircraft industry. And then the world.
    The first and only digital Zenith was a collectible copy of Nikon.
    Rusnano's trump card - carbon pipes - is registered in Amsterdam and is completely independent by Rusnano.
    Only after a year of refusal of the Indians from SU57, Zvezda announced that they had guessed to cover the cockpit with a stealth coating. (the cockpit allegedly gave 50% of the radio emissions)
    Transport IL began to actually draw in 2 years, as the Indians spat, stopped giving money, and left. Remember what happened ...

    All the same, the chief of the railway had a super-fur coat storage. living in Austria, he admitted this ...