Pacific Fleet: A Stick That Must Become a Cudgel
Photo: mil.ru
Let's start from afar. Unfortunately, Russia has four fleet... Four sticks, which are almost impossible to turn into one club.
The Baltic Fleet
Locked in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea and representing nothing like a combat formation. The point is not in the quantitative or qualitative composition of the fleet, but in the fact that the region has very strong fleets of NATO countries. And since we are not talking about the destruction of the whole world, then in a local conflict, the combined fleets of Germany, Denmark and Norway will not leave the Baltic Fleet any chance. He, as well as in the First and Second World Wars, is doomed to be locked in the Gulf of Finland and represent a target. But the KBF is capable of snapping back. And plus the Baltica is quite normally shot from coast to coast with modern cruise missiles. So it's a suicide club for everyone involved.
Black Sea Fleet
Not as sad as in the Baltic, of course there is more room for maneuver. However, NATO's forces here, too, far exceed anything that the Black Sea Fleet can oppose to the enemy. The Turkish fleet is strong enough, and if colleagues in the block from the Mediterranean catch up ... But the Black Sea is a unique formation. And while all the enemy ships will overcome the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, our missilemen will have a very excellent opportunity to build a dam in the straits.Northern Fleet
Quite an impressive striking fist, but little use for it. Apart from US submarines, which from time to time hang out under the ice, we have no enemy in the North. Simply because potential ships do not have ships capable of operating in ice. On the other hand, the transfer of ships from the North to any region of the world takes so much time that it is worth remembering the "combat" campaign of "Admiral Kuznetsov" to the shores of Syria. And to estimate whether the ships of the Northern Fleet will have a chance to come to the aid of someone. In fact, no, there will simply not be a chance to make the transition in wartime. NATO is everywhere with all the ensuing consequences.
Pacific Fleet
Source: voennoedelo.com
And here there are very interesting options for the development of events of a non-apocalyptic nature. And now we will turn our eyes to the Far East.
It is there that we have serious territorial claims in the form of the Kuriles. The Japanese consider these islands to be their own, with all the ensuing consequences.
It is generally worth making a small digression here. The fact is that shortly before sitting down for these reflections, I had plenty of food on Japanese naval sites. The Japanese have been obsessed with their navy since the days of rowing ships, and I just keep quiet about battleships and cruisers.
So, the Japanese view of the events of 1945 is very different from ours. And this is logical, they have a different mentality. It would seem that the USSR joined the war at the final stage, did not burn Tokyo and other cities, did not drop atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But no. Everything looks a little different from the Japanese point of view.
Japan arranged Pearl Harbor for the Americans without declaring war. The Americans staged a war on them and Hiroshima in return. The Japanese here do not look very good in their eyes, because no one there expresses any special claims for the bombing today. It seems like they got what they deserved and are to blame.
And with regard to Russia, which is the successor of the Soviet Union, the view is somewhat different. We had a non-aggression pact, which the Japanese (oddly enough) adhered to. It's hard to say why this happened, I think, they wanted to act for sure, plus Khalkhin-Gol and Khasan did their job. But that winter of 1941, they could have hit. And how everything would turn then is very difficult to say. But in December 1941, Japan knocked the Americans off their feet, and story developed like this.
But in 1945, the Soviet Union denounced the treaty and immediately went on the offensive, scattering the Kwantung Army and liberating Mongolia and part of China. Well, taking back his own in the form of Sakhalin and the Kuriles. The winners, you know, always take their toll, what claims can there be?
But the Japanese have their own opinion. For the most part, they believe that the denunciation of the treaty and the attack of the Soviet Union on Japan is about the same thing as Japan's attack on the United States without a declaration of war.
That is why in Japan they seriously dream of the moment when historical justice regarding the Kuriles will be corrected. There are specialized media such as the "Shukan Gendai" magazine, which constantly stir up interest in the topic, although what can I say, it has not cooled down for the last 30 years.
It is clear that in Japan, which was recovered for US dollars, the attitude towards the United States is quite respectful. Let's just say that the country is entirely focused on America. This is fine. This is, in principle, an internal affair of the Japanese. Forgiven Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Tokyo, Kyoto and dozens of other cities burned by phosphorus bombs - their own business, isn't it?
Bad views to the north, towards Russia - are experienced.
But - the Kuriles.
Of course, there is nothing of value in these patches of land. Yes, no matter what they say there, about the extraction of fish, minerals and other legends - the Kuril Islands have such backyards of the empire that it is difficult for a normal person to imagine. The real economic value of the islands is zero, because there is nothing there. No tourism cluster, no mining. And there are fewer and fewer people.
The talks about the allocation of funds, support, implementation of programs are ongoing. For now, the islands have cellular communications and the Internet.
But for Japan, these islands are a very important territory. For Russia too. This is already a boring political game for everyone: some cannot take, others cannot give. Russia really cannot give up the Kuril Islands. If you give up the islands, those who wish will come running to other territories. This is the main reason, but it is valid. Let diplomats and lawyers dig for another 500 years into what was signed in 1956. It plays into our hands.
But the Japanese are not very good. Almost every politician starts their career with the Kuril issue. And all that is typical, they could not solve it. But this does not diminish the cravings at all.
What could happen here? There are options.
Of course, the Kuril Islands are not a reason to unleash the Third World War. Well, these plots of land are not being pulled so that the world could be demolished for their sake. So - another scenario would be appropriate here.
This scenario was first played out in Kosovo. After that it was successfully repeated in several places. Our Crimean scenario is actually a bloodless variation on the same theme.
So what can the Japanese do in this regard? Just organize the settlement of the islands within the framework of any program. What they actually dream about. Joint economic projects. Japan has already built a hotel on the islands, donated two pontoons, significantly improving communication between the islands.
Cultural centers, some kind of economic ones, are being created ... And there is a small but confident influx of people from those who want to work for the good of the "northern territories". There are people like that in Japan, they have complete order with that.
The presence is gradually increasing. Until a certain moment, when problems begin on both sides. We already know how this happens and why. There are more than enough examples around Russia.
And that's when the warships come onto the scene. Because only with their help it will be possible to protect the interests of the "oppressed" peoples. It does not matter what nationality, in any case, the ships will leave the bases for "defense".
Photo by wikipedia.org
And here "suddenly" an unpleasant thing can become clear. The Japanese fleet, without the help of the American allies, is capable of neutralizing the entire Pacific Fleet without straining itself too much. The number of attack ships in the Japanese navy exceeds the number of Russian ships capable of delivering serious strikes.
40 destroyers with anti-ship missiles is a very serious number of salvoes. Plus two dozen submarines. In general, it is enough to induce democracy on the islands.
You can talk a lot about numbers and compare the capabilities of the two fleets. But alas, the Japanese navy is much younger than ours. It is a fact. And its capabilities (with the exception of destroying the world) are higher than those of the Pacific Fleet.
Is it all that sad? No, not all of them.
Practice has shown that the Pacific Fleet is today able to provide an amphibious operation. The fleet has landing ships and boats at its disposal. They do not shine with novelty, but they do exist and will be able to perform tasks to carry out support operations on the islands or, for example, to transfer an air defense brigade. To the Kuril Islands.
I have already said that the economic value of the islands today is near zero. This must be admitted calmly and said that tomorrow the North and South Kuril ridges will be able to become excellent outposts of defense. For example, Iskanders (or even better - Caliber) on Kunashir will be able to kindle a fire very well in the hearts of Japanese revanchists, and then extinguish it. Because even if the Japanese had placed elements of the Aegis system on their islands, in this situation it would be very difficult for the system to reflect a shot at point-blank range. That is, from 150-200 kilometers.
So, rockets. Winged, anti-ship, anti-aircraft. It is useful, it cools the hottest heads.
Aircraft. They are very much needed. Intelligence, guidance, admonition. There are airfields on the islands, but more is needed. Let it be jump airfields, it is not so important. The main thing is that from them it was possible to work on targets both on the coast (Japanese) and at sea.
Ships. Landing, so that you can support the coastal troops on the islands and combat, to discourage everyone who wants to make holes in the landing ships.
The experience gained when supplying a group of Russian troops in Syria has shown how necessary a fleet is in conducting such operations. Today we can say that the Black Sea Fleet was completely unprepared for the task of supplying a rather small group of troops in Syria, and they had to buy old steamers everywhere to transport military cargo to Syria.
In the Far East, this is unlikely to work out, if only because, unlike terrorists, the Japanese have warships and planes that can try to interfere with the delivery of goods.
Some might say that the script is fantastic enough. Maybe. Anyone who has not read what is written on forums such as our "Review" in Japan. The audience there is no different from ours in terms of the intensity of the expressed passions, nothing. For some reason, all these stories about cultured, educated and restrained Japanese themselves become fiction on the theme of the Kuril Islands.
Yes, this is just the "voice of the people", and letting off steam in discussions, the Japanese again become quiet and well-mannered. But, as they say, what's on the mind of a sober ...
The problem of the Kuriles is and will remain for the Japanese a problem cleaner than Fukushima. It is a fact. And it's very good to consider this problem from the islands themselves, when there is a fleet behind you, and not a bunch of old ships on the way to recycling.
Today the Russian shipbuilding program for fleets is ridiculous. Yes, we are not able to take and solve all the problems with the ships. Therefore, forty-year-old ships have to be patched up and their service life extended.
But isn't it better than throwing 3-4 ships on each of the fleets, taking and modernizing the fleet that will cover the most explosive area? That is, the Pacific Fleet, which today (and tomorrow) is sorely lacking either small patrol ships or serious strike ships. And the Pacific Fleet has an enemy. And the enemy is not only strong, but also equipped with modern ships.
It is very difficult to say why Japan needs such a fleet. It seems to be like defending against possible Chinese aggression, but here's the problem: China has never been the first to get into a fight historically. It is clear that this is not an argument, and Taiwan may become the first, but ... We can also get into the history of Japan. There are more beautiful cases.
If you want peace, prepare for war. " That's what smart people said. And if we want peace in the region that was discussed, then we just need to be ready to stop the possible inclinations of Japan.
That is, the Pacific Fleet needs surface ships. New and in sufficient quantities. Tomorrow, because no one today will be able to say how much longer the Japanese will restrain their revanchism and militarism.
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