And the IMF is like in a song - "everything is good, everything is good"
The forecast is almost like a sentence
Optimistic specialists from the International Monetary Fund, enviously, confidently predicted another impressive leap forward for the economy. And not only the world economy, but also the Russian one. Already this year, it is expecting an increase in GDP of 4,7 percent, although after the new holidays, the percentages will most likely have to be adjusted.
With the next year things are worse - but even there we should go up by 2,9 percent, although earlier it was possible to count on 3,1 or even 3,8 percent. For the world economy, the forecast for 2022 is also slightly reduced - from 6 to 5,9 percent.
And all this - despite the growing energy crisis and despite the fact that the fourth wave of the pandemic is ready to pounce on the world. Against this, he, the world, even the most civilized part of it, however, is somehow badly helped by the universal vaccination, and the new insane anticoid restrictions.
But there should be growth in the economy, and there will be. And all because, based on the currently dominant economic theories, without growth to all of us ... you yourself understand what. And the growth figures, in accordance with the norms for calculating GDP everywhere in force, will not be drawn, but quite specific to themselves.
Nevertheless, in reality, all the notorious growth of all economies, like the American one, and the American itself, has for many years turned into a kind of zilch, or rather, into a kind of developed self-service system. I don't think it's worth reminding that the US economy is 70 percent service economy.
Well, they produce in the states either something very intellectual, or from foreign (not necessarily Chinese) components. But there is nothing fundamentally wrong with this, do not be surprised, no. And it would be nice for the whole world to heal like that. Although, sorry - the author is clearly dreaming.
People in the same USA have long been living not by themselves, but for each other. Although mostly at someone else's expense, but this is not about that. Among the very services that provide 70 percent of GDP are not only cafes, restaurants and tire fitting along with minor repairs, but also culture and sports, and even most of what the information age has made us happy with. Well, and one more thing - about which a little below.
On the other side of reality
However, for all of the above, it is required to produce something already quite real. And the main thing in the new reality of the XXI century is not the growth of consumption in itself. Yes, it just seems that you can't sit on two chairs, and you can't drive two cars at the same time. But British Lord John Maynard Keynes once prescribed effective demand to the world as a panacea, so please.
By the way, most in the so-called civilized countries can easily eat two burgers instead of one. And this is precisely what stimulates economic growth on the other side of reality. And the other side is India, China and all the countries that have joined, more precisely, the countries attached to them, which produce everything and everything, it seems, a little, but so much that the planet is simply suffocating from garbage.
And then there's the bitcoins, the public got into the habit of mining, using our energy with you. And he doesn't pay any taxes for that - it's good if the electricity bills are not burned. Although now they are more and more electronic, you cannot easily get rid of them.
The overproduction of practically everything, except for what people really need, has become not only the norm, but some kind of religion. Moreover, the quality of everything and everyone is rapidly declining, since it is necessary to free up niches for the sale of the next consignments of consumer goods.
It doesn't matter - whether it's consumer goods on wheels from a batch of a thousand copies for a couple of hundred thousand greens, or a gadget for fifty. There, however, there is already a batch of half a million pieces, this is at least. It remains only to wonder how people have not yet forgotten how to do at least something not for a year or two or three, maximum ten, but for centuries.
However, what centuries are there - built for centuries also regularly needs reconstruction, I almost wrote - in renovation. However, in the renovation, not necessarily - Sobyanin, because there is nothing fundamentally new - in the Arab East it has long become the norm to build something new, at best, for forty years.
The economy is reversed
Meanwhile, it is well known that the cost of producing anything, in addition to infrastructure and large industrial enterprises, nowadays is about 15-20, or even ten percent of the final cost of goods. The rest is advertising, logistics, sales, and what else?
But maybe this is not bad, because otherwise the planet could have drowned long ago in the waste of its own production. And so people are in business, and money is spinning. By the way, in especially advanced economies it is not just services in the first roles, but financial services, which the author promised to remind of.
But from them, as the practice of about seventy recent years has shown, just do not expect anything good. Almost all post-war crises in the world economy, including the energy one, were directly or indirectly related to financial problems.
More precisely, with blowing bubbles from unsecured financial instruments. However, the statement about “nothing is not backed up” is not entirely true - stocks, bonds, all insurance and pension securities, all sorts of options are well looped over each other. What all this led to in 2008, many have not yet forgotten.
Just as the default of 1998 was not forgotten in Russia, after which those who made decisions seem to have seriously and for a long time lost the desire to bow to the IMF with outstretched hand.
The financiers easily accustomed to their games the participants of other markets, including the oil one. Under 90 percent of the notorious futures contracts for the same oil, there is no oil supply at all. As there is nothing real, except for the energy spent on mining, and under the same bitcoins.
But seriously, the real economy has no need for mandatory growth. We ought to be able to save what we have, and to draw GDP percentages is not such a problem. Both for the IMF and for domestic consumption. Although for the IMF, as in that famous song about the beautiful marquis, where "everything is good, everything is good ..."
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