Thirst. Where the Amu Darya bears its waters
All around - water ...
Little does bring Russia closer to Central Asia, and after it to Afghanistan. However, a common solution to the water problem could bring everyone here, like little else. And it is not only the quite obvious geopolitical factor that predetermines the inevitability of constant dialogue.
It is the water-economic geography that can become an additional incentive to somehow cooperate even with the Taliban.
We are talking, of course, about the colossal and as yet almost inexhaustible transboundary basin of the Amu Darya River. With all its tributaries, it is over 200 thousand square kilometers.
Of these, at least 20% are, although many are surprised, just in Afghanistan. For this reason, cooperation in the Amu Darya basin is of strategic importance both for Afghanistan and for its northern neighbors. Confirmation of this is the still little-known fact that the Taliban uphold all documents relating to this cooperation.
Thus, Protocol No. 566 of 1987, signed by the union republics of Central Asia (in Tashkent) and approved by the government of the then Afghanistan, provides for annual water withdrawals in this basin by Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and even Kazakhstan.
Taking into account the transboundary rivers Pyanj and Murgab of the same basin - in a total volume of 61,5 cubic kilometers, not the most solid quotas of 2,1 cubic meters were established for Afghanistan. km. But the actual figure for Afghanistan since 1988 has been at least 4 cubic kilometers.
It is interesting that so far this has not raised objections from the signatory republics. And this document is de facto valid today.
Meanwhile, in 1992, the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) of the countries of Central Asia was established, and its executive body is the “Basin Water Organization (BWO)“ Amu Darya ”created in the early 80s.
However, to date, Afghanistan does not fully participate in these structures, since it has the status of an associated observer country in them. At the same time, the Taliban Afghanistan does not renounce this status.
Unclassified fairway
The only Central Asian state that is really interested in cooperation in this area with Afghanistan is Tajikistan. In view of the maximum - within the Amu Darya basin - economic and geographical interdependence of transboundary rivers and the size of their joint length.
Accordingly, on October 1, 2012, Tajikistan and Afghanistan signed a memorandum in Dushanbe, with no expiration date, "On mutual understanding and measures to protect the environment of the ecosystem of the Pyanj and Amu Darya rivers".
The document is designed for five years and provides for joint development and implementation of measures in this transboundary basin to:
1) counteracting climate change;
2) conservation of biodiversity;
3) monitoring of water quality;
4) environmental expertise of water management projects;
5) exchange of experience in the management and use of water resources of the same basin.
This document has not been canceled by the Taliban and, most likely, will be prolonged, because 11 years ago - in 2010, Tajikistan and Afghanistan signed (in Dushanbe) a basic agreement in this area - an open-ended agreement "On cooperation in the development and management of river water resources. Pyanj and Amu Darya ".
The Taliban, let us note, canceled most of the international agreements of the "former" Afghanistan or suspended them, but this document was also left in force by them. Apparently, also because to date, with the annual flow of the Amu Darya basin 78,34 cubic meters. km more than 25%, that is, about 20 cubic meters. km, is formed on the territory of Afghanistan (on the territories of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - respectively 61 and 6,6%).
At the same time, the water intake by Afghanistan now varies between 3 and 5 cubic meters. km per year, and in the coming years Kabul plans to increase the extraction from the Amu Darya basin up to 10 cubic kilometers per year.
Russian interest
Meanwhile, Tajikistan is developing the colossal hydropower potential of the Panj, bordering Afghanistan, which forms more than a third (that is, about 33,4 cubic kilometers) of the Amu Darya's water resources. The planned, moreover, large, border hydrosystems on the Tajik channel of the Pyanj include the Dashtijumsky (capacity 4 MW, capacity 17,6 cubic km) and Rushansky (capacity 3 MW, capacity - 5 cubic km).
Their construction is planned for 2022–2025, mainly with the help of Russia. That is, the Russian Federation also receives a substantive economic incentive to interact with the Taliban Afghanistan. It is assumed that water volumes and / or electricity from these facilities will be partially supplied to northern and / or northeastern Afghanistan.
Plus, to this day, plans have not been canceled for the last five years of the reign of King M. Zahir Shah (1969-1973) to create, with the help of the USSR and Iran, a network of low and medium-power hydroelectric power plants in the region bordering Central Asia.
According to available information, the Taliban included these plans in the program for the development of electricity, agricultural irrigation and domestic water supply in northern Afghanistan. This, in turn, will require an assessment of the impact of this network on the water withdrawal capabilities of neighboring Central Asian countries in the Amu Darya basin.
Russian participation in these projects is a substantive channel for interaction between the Russian Federation and Taliban Afghanistan.
And the potential of this joint activity is also manifested in the transport sector.
Let us explain: on June 22 this year, during a meeting of the Russian-Uzbek commission on economic cooperation, Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Abdulla Aripov noted that
It is significant that the Taliban did not cancel this long-standing project either.
Water procedures
Returning to the role of the transboundary Amu Darya basin in cooperation with Taliban Afghanistan, we note that intra-, interstate and regional political conflicts, as world practice confirms, remain secondary for the rational use of transboundary water resources.
Examples of this are the agreements that are still in force in the 1990s between the Russian Federation and Latvia on the Daugava - Western Dvina basin, the Russian Federation and Estonia on Lake Peipsi - the Narva River, this is also a zone of transboundary environmental and economic cooperation "Neman" (Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation, Belarus, Lithuania, north-eastern voivodeships of Poland).
Another characteristic example: even during the period of military-political confrontation between the PRC and Vietnam, as well as Vietnam with the pro-Chinese Kampuchea (Cambodia) and Thailand, at the turn of the 70s and 80s, China, where the source and upper reaches of the transboundary Mekong are located, has interacted to this day interacts with the Mekong River Basin Committee, which initially (i.e. since 1957) includes Vietnam *, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand.
*Note. In 1957-1974, the Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam) participated in the treaty, and North Vietnam (DRV) in the same years had the status of an associated observer in this Committee. Since May 1975, its member is the united Vietnam.
A similar example: the water management Organization of the Congo Basin is still functioning (since 1978) and is implementing relevant projects in the two republics of the Congo (Brazzaville and Kinshasa), the CAR and Angola, despite the well-known political conflicts between Kinshasa and Luanda and the internal political instability in the CAR ...
- Alexey Chichkin
- nplus1.ru, alsamarkand.com, geoman.ru
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