Photo: 24.kz
Oil reached for gas
As a result, the situation on the oil market did not become as tense as on the gas one. Although everything seemed to go to that. However, the peculiarities of trade in various types of hydrocarbon raw materials simply could not but affect.
If you have to pay exorbitant prices for cubic meters of gas not left on time in underground storage facilities, then barrels, if they become more expensive, then all together. However, this does not make it easier for end consumers.
However, why not easier?
Countries that signed long-term gas contracts, provided, among other things, even with transit capacities, saved their populations from headaches on the eve of a harsh winter. And let someone now call it the "gas dictate" of the Russians.
Other suppliers are also not against long-term agreements, as this guarantees them from market surprises better than any insurance. But this is still not about this, but about the technologies that the oil OPEC uses to remain not an outside observer, but a real regulator of the oil market.
In recent years, OPEC has managed to draw into its sphere of influence even countries such as the United States and Russia, for which relative freedom of production and export is even more important than direct profit. The fact is that these countries are not only among the largest exporters of oil, they consume it in comparable volumes with production.
In addition, they are forced to maneuver between buying and selling, especially considering that 90% of futures contracts are traded by speculators. By no means all of your "own" oil can be bought "for yourself", and even more so refined for the sake of more profitable export of oil products.
There is very little live oil on the market - as it turns out, it is useless to fight this fact. A series of oil crises (including the coronavirus), frankly provoked, either by the Saudis or by the Russians, forced both Russia and the United States to enter into direct and long-term agreements with OPEC.
The OPEC + agreement helps to cope with the fact that the world economy is somehow very nervous emerging from the pandemic. But oil stability, which could help break the gas impasse, helped badly in the end.
Quotas and benefits
A very clear September trend of an increase in oil prices, directly related to the shortage of gas, led to record prices in the oil market. A barrel of Brent was quoted at almost $ 85, and analysts were seriously afraid that stock market players would try to storm the mark around $ 100.
This could well have led to the same collapse of the oil market as well as the gas market, but the consequences would be much more dangerous. Forgive me for repeating, but gas rose in price only in free sale, and for oil, the rise in prices could affect just everything. Therefore, one should not be surprised that after the well-known announcement of the Russian president about his readiness to help stabilize the gas market, the oil market stabilized almost immediately.
In turn, the OPEC representatives on the eve of the next ministerial meeting very timely made a not very positive forecast regarding the demand for oil and oil products until the end of 2021. As a result, on Tuesday, October 12, the price of the OPEC oil basket fell by $ 0,16 to 82,37 per barrel.
On Wednesday, OPEC's monthly report and the organization's view of the prospects for supply and demand in the market are published, but it should not be expected to contradict the agreements of July 18, 2021. Recall that then the ministers of the OPEC + countries agreed to increase oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day.
It is possible that in September, when the gas crisis became especially acute, many considered such a quota insufficient and began to play for higher prices. Nevertheless, the resilience of OPEC members and participants in the "plus" deal cannot be denied. On October 4, they very coolly decided to keep this plan of increasing oil production.
Taliban factor
And before that, the head of OPEC, Mohammad Barkindo, strongly opposed the cuts in investment in energy production from oil and gas. He is convinced that the world cannot afford such a luxury at all, especially given the recurring energy crises, especially in the developing world.
Barkindo considers the European gas crisis to be a signal to wake up. The head of OPEC demonstratively ignores the topic of the nuclear renaissance and believes that the time has come to take care of the return, efficiency and removal of the dangers and harm from traditional hydrocarbon energy, which has far from exhausted its potential.
Investments in energy based on oil and gas are extremely acute in relation to the growing demand for electricity in the developing world. Thus, Afghanistan under the Taliban, and even under any government, cannot afford any other energy, except for oil.
Judging by the position of M. Barkindo, he believes that Iran, which supplies oil, should be for one thing - help in resolving the energy crisis, get out of the sanctions.
The head of OPEC does not neglect the problem of alternative energy sources. According to him, excessive attention to the topics of global warming and the development of alternative energy has led to a very dangerous trend.
A negative background was created in the media and in political circles, which grew into a kind of global trend in relation to the production of energy from oil and gas. However, the suppression of this key sector can lead to a strong increase in prices for all types of energy.
Neither China nor India is expected there
The gas cartel, which was once so longed for in Algeria, Turkmenistan or Qatar, in a certain scenario, may again be of interest to Russia.
The creation of a certain world gas community can allow it to significantly expand its modern projects focused, among other things, on the production of LNG and the use of hydrogen.
However, significant difficulties in the formation of a gas OPEC can be caused, first of all, by a very limited circle of possible participants. In addition, such a cartel should, after all, include traditional competitors who have become partners in the case of oil, one might say, only out of need.
However, isn't the current acute gas shortage the very need that will bring anyone closer together?
Putin is now applauded not only by Europe, but even by Biden, and something like a confession has sounded from the lips of Trump.
And a narrow circle of partners may turn out to be not a disadvantage, but an advantage, due to less complex mechanisms for taking into account mutual interests. But how can the future gas OPEC deal with unpredictable buyers like China and India?
We still have no doubt that it was uncontrolled purchases on their part that led to the autumn jump in gas prices, and therefore the gas cartel, if it takes place at all, will have to deal with the issue of whether it needs a spot market for a long time and seriously. ?