Military Review

Taiwan: the best excuse for World War III?

113

Photo: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation


The events that are currently unfolding in the Asia-Pacific region can be said to overturn the understanding of modern material values. Indeed, until recently, hydrocarbons were the main values, for which governments were overthrown and wars were fought.

Times are changing, and today's affairs show that hydrocarbons are not the most valuable thing in the world and it is not necessary to fight for them. You can, for example, negotiate correctly with Russia, and at its own expense it will lay a pipe with its own oil and gas to your doorstep. Proven by Germany, China and Turkey.


Today we have a new value for which two superpowers - China and the United States - can come together in a battle.

In general, the war is already underway, but it is still a sanctions-economic one and is not very obvious. We see the echoes of this war in the example of how the United States is trying to strangle Huawei with sanctions and non-delivery of chips.

But in reality, everything is much more complicated than trying to remove China from the main microelectronics manufacturer in the world. From Taiwan.

In general, Taiwan is very difficult.


The position of this entity itself is not easy, and it can be compared with such countries as the PMR, South Ossetia, and so on. The so-called Republic of China Taiwan, one of the founders of the UN. Today Taiwan has lost its place in the UN, it was transferred to the PRC, which actually left Taiwan's control as a result of the 1945-50 Civil War, when the Communists eventually defeated the Kuomintang. The Republic of China has repeatedly tried to renew its membership in the UN, but each time these attempts have failed by the People's Republic of China, which believes that Taiwan is the territory of the PRC.

Today Taiwan, representing the island of Taiwan itself and several small islands, is recognized by only 15 states in the world, but through trade missions it maintains ties with the whole world.

Taiwan's economy is ranked 30th in the world in purchasing power parity (PPP), 18th in gross domestic product (GDP) and 24th in nominal GDP, investment and foreign trade.

Very confident. The core of wealth is TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), which accounts for about 56% of the world's semiconductor chip production. This is a huge figure, for comparison: the second place in the world belongs to “GlobalFoundries” (USA), it is 9,4%, the third one belongs to “United Microelectronics Corporation” (again Taiwan), 8,5%.


In fact, TSMC has a controlling stake in the world's chipset production. TSMC's clients are HiSilicon, MediaTek, Huawei, Realtek, AMD, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, ARM Holdings, Altera, Xilinx, Apple, Broadcom, Conexant, Marvell, Intel. This is a list of the largest customers, and we can draw conclusions about how firmly TSMC has entered the market.

Today, the conflict is revolving around the fact that the United States is trying to restrain the development of China by putting pressure on TSMC in terms of limiting the supply of microelectronics products from Huawei.

In fact, it seems strange that a company based on Chinese money and almost on Chinese soil is under US pressure. But politically, everything is correct here: Taiwan is currently ruled by the DPP, a democratic progressive party, whose first person, Tsai Ing-wen, is also the President of the Republic of China. Second term, by the way.


Tsai Ing-wen and her DPP are categorically opposed to unification with the PRC. Economic partnerships - yes, but Tsai Ing-wen would like to see Taiwan as a member of the US-sponsored Trans-Pacific Partnership, which did not initially plan to invite China to this trade club. But this would mean an instant deterioration in relations with the PRC, so that Taiwan, led by the first female president, is still dangling in a position of uncertainty.

By and large, it is precisely this policy of Taiwan that has led to the current exacerbation. The United States decided that they could put pressure on China economically, China, which consumes about 60% of the electronics produced in Taiwan, decided to ram it with military equipment.

Happened.

Demonstrating the capabilities of the PLA Air Force off the coast of Taiwan was a very powerful move.


Tsai Ing-wen really panicked and turned to the United States and even Australia, which greatly amused Chinese Internet users. Here we can agree with them, because where are the capabilities of the PLA, and where are the armed forces of Australia?

But there is no consensus in the United States either. Yes, since 1979, America has shown a policy of patronage with regard to Taiwan. However, China in the 80s and China today are two big differences.

"Full independence" of Taiwan under the auspices of the United States is not what Beijing is dreaming of. And they make it clear that they will not put up with this state of affairs.

Indeed, the development of the PRC country requires a huge number of chips. The Chinese are not able to organize production on their own.

This is really so: if you build a plant on the territory of the PRC and start technology, in a year the Chinese copier will thresh at a truly communist pace. But to invent it yourself - sorry, it's not for China. Yes, China produces very decent aircraft. However, buyers want to see Russian engines on them. And for its fifth generation fighters with engines, the PRC is not doing very well. And so in many ways, from phones to cars.

Of course, the progress in quality is simply stunning. But: others come up with new items. China only produces or copies. But even this requires a breakthrough of processors and other microcircuits.

Therefore, the PRC simply cannot afford to fall under US sanctions in this regard, which the Americans will implement through Taiwan.

“Time to warn Taiwan that the threat of war is real,” read the headline on Monday in China's Global Times. This is a pro-government publication dedicated to the international situation, and accordingly, no ad-libbing. Everything has been agreed upon at all levels, and if the media has given this out, it means that the corresponding comrades think so.
The economic collusion between Washington and Taipei strained Beijing very much. And in Beijing they decided to play all-in, that is, to demonstrate that they will go all the way in the issue of supplies of microelectronics. Even if the end is the landing of the Chinese marines on the beaches of Taiwan.


So Beijing makes it very unequivocally that it is ready to use force for the sake of its state interests.

In the United States, they understood the message and also tensed.

To begin with, before moving on to the next phase of the game, in Washington it is worth answering first of all to yourself a few questions. Before issuing any advances and promises to Taipei, such as protection and preservation of independence from the PRC in the event of forceful and aggressive actions by Beijing, for which it has already demonstrated its readiness.

1. In the event of Chinese aggression, how realistic are the capabilities of the Taiwanese armed forces to repel the aggression?

2. How big are the capabilities of the US Armed Forces to repel a Chinese attack on Taiwan? Considering a logistics leverage of 6 miles. Ok, Okinawa is 000 miles away, but still not very close.

3. What is the likelihood of success for the PRC operation against Taiwan, given the logistical leverage of 100 miles?

4. How willing is the United States to pay with the lives of its soldiers for the country's economic interests? Especially considering that you will have to fight not with terrorist units or the army of a third world country, but with fully trained PLA soldiers?

The questions seem to be very difficult, but in fact, everything is much simpler than it seems.

The armed forces of Taiwan are able to resist the army and the fleet China, but nothing more.


There is no need to compare the capabilities of the Chinese Navy and the Taiwanese Navy. Namely, the fleets will play a major role in this conflict. The air force of China will also prevail without a doubt, it is not even a matter of quality, but quantity.

For a country with a population of 23 million, Taiwan has a very decent army and navy. But China has even more of this. The US Navy is luxurious, but it will operate at a distance from its bases, under the gun of Chinese coastal complexes.

And one more important question.

The Taiwanese military will defend (or not, the question is delicate) their land. Chinese soldiers - theirs. In his speech at the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, General Secretary Xi Jingping clearly outlined his vision: Taiwan is the territory of China. The reunification of China and Taiwan is nothing more than the task of the Chinese Communist Party, the whole question is how to solve this task.

If China begins to solve this problem with forced methods, how prepared will the US Marine Corps be psychologically? There is no doubt that the PLA fighters will be ready psychologically.

Okinawa, home to the nearest US base, is a thousand miles from Taiwan. And the rocket launchers and the Chinese Air Force are 100 miles from Taiwan. Not a very nice deal, is it? China's tactical superiority, even if the United States gathers all of its satellites in the region, will be clear.

“All for one” is, of course, a principle. USA, Australia, Japan, South Korea - yes, they are able to exhibit just a wonderful navy.


But naval battles are somewhat unlikely in our time, no more than a series of missile strikes. Disrupting the landing operation of China is perhaps the whole question, again, at what cost. How many American, Australian and Japanese sailors will have to die for the sake of political and economic interests?

Again the moral aspect: According to comments on the Internet, the annexation of Taiwan is the desire of the majority of the inhabitants of the mainland of China. A sort of Crimea is the Chinese version. But for this, plus an economic perspective, the Chinese people will willingly make sacrifices.

They know how to make sacrifices.


And today, many media outlets in the United States say that it is inexpedient to fight China for Taiwan. Not only does the case smell of great human sacrifice, which the United States does not like, the case smells of huge financial losses.

In addition, it is not at all an option that the same factories for the production of microelectronics will not be included in the losses. They can easily suffer in the event of missile strikes from China.

Some say that China is provoking the Third World War. And that it could come to nuclear exchanges, but ...

More than doubtful. No matter how valuable the factories of the same TSMC are, they can suffer from hostilities and then the whole conflict will be completely useless. There is no point in shedding blood and money for a piece of land that will not have the most valuable resource.

"There is absolutely nothing in Taiwan that would be worth such a risk for our country" - this is the style that many in the United States are saying today.

Actually there is, of course. The only question is, what is the price of owning production facilities and research and production facilities.

China is showing it is willing to take the risk. And in this light, the United States understands that an attempt to prevent a Chinese attack by force weapons has almost no chance of success. Many openly say precisely that the country's leadership should abandon plans for a war with China for Taiwan.

Yes, when it's scary, it's scary in full. The instinct of self-preservation has not been canceled either.

In fact, Tsai Ing-wen herself did a disservice to the Americans when she published an article in the American magazine Foreign Affairs. The President of Taiwan said in her work that the "occupation" of Taiwan "would have disastrous consequences for regional peace and the democratic alliance system."

The DPP of Taiwan, having turned the island into an anti-Chinese outpost under China's nose, finally realized that the situation could get out of control. And China, faced with the choice to be left without chips vital to the production of everything from a telephone to an anti-ship missile, could go to extreme lengths.

Tsai Ing-wen demonstrates that he is openly afraid of this situation. And therefore he calls everyone to help.

And help may simply not come. The current course of the Biden administration is very similar to that of the previous administration. But what Donald Trump was afraid to do (although he promised) in terms of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Biden did without straining too much. And not really thinking about the allies who were simply abandoned there.


Photo: US Marine Corps / Staff Sgt. Victor Mancilla

DPP understands that things may not turn out as expected. Yes, today Taiwan plays the role of a sort of unsinkable aircraft carrier off the coast of China. And the leaders of the ruling party would like to exchange this position for protection from the United States.

However, it is quite possible that there will be no conflict between the United States and China, no nuclear Apocalypse. But the United States will simply abandon Taiwan. And if in the Afghan show the US army simply fled the region, then in Taiwan it may not even appear.

Apparently Tsai Ing-wen understands this. And in the best traditions of the former Ukrainian president, Poroshenko began to frighten the Americans by telling how, in the event of the occupation of Taiwan, this would become a disaster for the United States.

In fact - not a fact. Yes, Taiwan can come under Chinese control, that's right. It is already clear today that there is only one force in the world that is ready to fight for Taiwan very decisively. This is China.

But in turn, China has never demonstrated aggression against other countries. He did not close or nationalize the factories of owners from other countries on his territory (even American ones), and so on. I am sure that Chinese Taiwan will sell the products of its factories to the same Americans in the same way. Chickens laying the golden eggs are not allowed on the noodles, this is a fact.

Therefore, it is very unlikely that China, having taken control of the production of Taiwan together with the island, will rush to declare sanctions by the same USA. In this regard, the PRC has always demonstrated a fairly balanced and wise policy.

By the way, this only benefits Russia. Our normal relationship with China is a guarantee of calm cooperation in terms of purchasing chips for all occasions. It is no secret that even our satellites today will not fly anywhere without Taiwanese microcircuits. But from the United States one could expect anything, including sanctions pressure. So the Chinese version is more profitable for us.
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  1. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 11 October 2021 04: 40
    +3
    Chickens laying golden eggs are not allowed on noodles
    Quietly, peacefully agree, Tsai will not be the leader forever ...
    1. Sling cutter
      Sling cutter 11 October 2021 07: 03
      +1
      Taiwan is an ethnic China, and the increasing power of mainland China in all spheres cannot be seen only by the blind. Therefore, the reunification of Taiwan and China is a matter of the very near future.
      1. VTR-295
        VTR-295 11 October 2021 15: 53
        +2
        Do the Taiwanese themselves want this?
        1. Sling cutter
          Sling cutter 11 October 2021 17: 26
          +2
          Quote: VTR-295
          Do the Taiwanese themselves want this?

          Quote: Orsis338
          Singapore is also predominantly Chinese by nationality, but the PRC does not favor something.

          Let me remind you that not everyone in the GDR wanted to unite either.
          1. onstar9
            onstar9 11 October 2021 21: 16
            +4
            Quote: Stroporez
            Let me remind you that not everyone in the GDR wanted to unite either.

            Well, it's easy to talk about politics, but who wants to live under Chinese "control"? Taiwanese will have the same control if they submit to the Chinese dictator. Freedom and democracy are not to be seen. And for some reason, no one from Russia wants to go to China to live, especially the rich and officials. China is a friend, and the West is an enemy, but everyone goes to live and buys villas in the "enemy West" ...
            1. Sling cutter
              Sling cutter 11 October 2021 22: 36
              -2
              Quote: onstar9
              And for some reason, no one from Russia wants to go to China to live, especially the rich and officials. China is a friend, and the West is an enemy, but everyone goes to live and buys villas in the "enemy West" ...

              Honestly, there are a lot of our merchants in China, avot, as far as friendship is concerned, Duc China is not our friend and mentally it is much further from us than the same Europe or America, so skis are mostly made to Europe, and in mattresses there are many of our bureaucrats can immediately come for life.
            2. zenion
              zenion 12 October 2021 18: 11
              +2
              So more than 70% of the population voted for the USSR to remain, but those who wanted to become feudal lords did it on them. Now it is necessary to cleanse the endowed by those who are now feudal lords.
          2. VTR-295
            VTR-295 13 October 2021 16: 50
            -1
            And what, the GDR was annexed by force? Because Taiwan will not be part of China voluntarily
            1. Sanichsan
              Sanichsan 17 October 2021 18: 40
              0
              Quote: VTR-295
              And what, the GDR was annexed by force?

              and what, were there any referendums? since the East Germans were not asked about anything, but handed over like a sack of potatoes, then by force. request
              1. VTR-295
                VTR-295 18 October 2021 16: 03
                -1
                1. Parliamentary elections in the GDR (1990) - the last elections to the People's Chamber of the GDR, held on March 18, 1990. They were the first free elections in the GDR. As a result of the elections, the communist system in the GDR was finally dismantled and the last obstacles to the reunification of Germany were removed.
                2. On September 20, 1990, the FRG and the GDR held a vote on the ratification of the treaty. In the People's Chamber of the GDR, 299 deputies voted for the ratification of the treaty, 80 - against, 1 - abstained.

                Now explain to me, where is the power here? And remind me, were there any mass riots against unification in the GDR?
                1. Sanichsan
                  Sanichsan 20 October 2021 13: 23
                  -1
                  Quote: VTR-295
                  Now explain to me, where is the power here?

                  the power is in truth, but the truth is that these elections in the GDR were as free as those of Yeltsin. request all this took place under the control of Western experts and with the complete self-elimination of the USSR. and then, according to the same principles, the USSR was destroyed. if you are going to rub in here that this is "freedom" then it should tell you that it is difficult to come up with great vulgarity and cynicism. hi
                  1. VTR-295
                    VTR-295 21 October 2021 10: 08
                    -1
                    Ooh, how everything is running!
                    That's it, I don't intend to continue the dialogue further, ciao!
      2. Orsis338
        Orsis338 11 October 2021 17: 21
        +3
        Singapore is also predominantly Chinese by nationality, but the PRC does not favor something.
    2. antivirus
      antivirus 11 October 2021 08: 22
      0
      Some say that China is provoking the Third World War. And that it could come to nuclear exchanges, but ...
      TRMV will begin because of Mexico .. there will be no way for the Americans to retreat
      in the meantime, they will hand over everyone for buns
  2. Vladimir_2U
    Vladimir_2U 11 October 2021 04: 47
    +3
    This is a huge figure, for comparison: the second place in the world belongs to “GlobalFoundries” (USA), it is 9,4%
    It is also not a trifle, but it is more important that this is the basis for development, well, Taiwan will fall off (not itself), the United States will not become a stake from this, certainly not from the absence of microelectronics. So the author is exaggerating in this part of the article, but in general the article is interesting, thank you!
    1. mikh-korsakov
      mikh-korsakov 11 October 2021 07: 33
      +9
      I read the title. When democracy came to the Russian Federation, many journalists, and in general writing people, very quickly learned the rule - in order for an article to be read, the headline must be sensational. I am reading "Taiwan: The best reason for the Third World War?" - I see the key word "best", I see a characteristic, (so as not to infringe) fig leaf of a question mark. I want to read right away, maybe it's really time to dry crackers? But no, the author proves extensively, very logically and convincingly that there will be no war over Taiwan. But I read it carefully, what if there will be a war all the same? Bravo to the author, by headings - test. On one point I disagree with the author, that butting between the PRC and the United States is beneficial to the Russian Federation, it would be beneficial if ... But they are butting. By the way, Comrade Xi did not congratulate Putin on his birthday. And this is a sign. Then this woman, for some reason, arrives in Moscow, and the sanctions were lifted from her. So not everything is so simple.
      1. Lech from Android.
        Lech from Android. 11 October 2021 07: 36
        +3
        Then this woman, for some reason, arrives in Moscow, and the sanctions were lifted from her.

        There was a mutual concession ... Nuland would still not be allowed to turn around in Russia ... they would shove her pies in one place and send back to Biden a lullaby to sing.
      2. tralflot1832
        tralflot1832 11 October 2021 10: 01
        +3
        Yes, you are right, there was a signal to Putin, and there was another one! Comrade Xi sent a congratulatory telegram on the 69th birthday to our President! But no can.
    2. onstar9
      onstar9 11 October 2021 21: 25
      +1
      Quote: Vladimir_2U
      This is a huge figure, for comparison: the second place in the world belongs to “GlobalFoundries” (USA), it is 9,4%
      It is also not a trifle, but it is more important that this is the basis for development, well, Taiwan will fall off (not itself), the United States will not become a stake from this, certainly not from the absence of microelectronics. So the author is exaggerating in this part of the article, but in general the article is interesting, thank you!

      Here the question now is who will become the most powerful state in the world in industry and production. Given the "science-intensiveness" of today's economy in the world, the seizure of the chip-making potential in Taiwan would mean an instantaneous transformation of China into the most powerful power in the world, well ahead of the United States. And this is exactly what China wants - to become the most powerful power in the world. If Taiwan produced "rice sticks", and not microchips, then I assure you, they would have spat on all of Taiwan long ago and would not particularly "bother" to obey him. And here it is another matter - microchips, the basis for the development of everything in the world at the moment. Getting Taiwan means immediately becoming the world leader in computer technology, immediately ahead of the United States. Which is exactly what China needs. And as for the fact that China, if it seizes Taiwan, it will also "peacefully" sell chips to America, and it can "not worry", then we can say that it will of course sell to America ... if it wants ... Or maybe "to take by the throat if he doesn't want to." This is the main question ...
      1. Shopping Mall
        Shopping Mall 12 October 2021 22: 16
        0
        Quote: onstar9
        Quote: Vladimir_2U
        This is a huge figure, for comparison: the second place in the world belongs to “GlobalFoundries” (USA), it is 9,4%
        It is also not a trifle, but it is more important that this is the basis for development, well, Taiwan will fall off (not itself), the United States will not become a stake from this, certainly not from the absence of microelectronics. So the author is exaggerating in this part of the article, but in general the article is interesting, thank you!

        Here the question now is who will become the most powerful state in the world in industry and production. Given the "science-intensiveness" of today's economy in the world, the seizure of the chip-making potential in Taiwan would mean an instantaneous transformation of China into the most powerful power in the world, well ahead of the United States. And this is exactly what China wants - to become the most powerful power in the world. If Taiwan produced "rice sticks", and not microchips, then I assure you, they would have spat on all of Taiwan long ago and would not particularly "bother" to obey him. And here it is another matter - microchips, the basis for the development of everything in the world at the moment. Getting Taiwan means immediately becoming the world leader in computer technology, immediately ahead of the United States. Which is exactly what China needs. And as for the fact that China, if it seizes Taiwan, it will also "peacefully" sell chips to America, and it can "not worry", then we can say that it will of course sell to America ... if it wants ... Or maybe "to take by the throat if he doesn't want to." This is the main question ...


        TSMC machines for the production of chips are sold by the Dutch ASML - they are the exclusive manufacturer of "thin" technical processes. Will go to China TSMC, hell they get new new machines - will become the leader of OEM production of Samsung or Intel. The United States will even benefit - it will take production for itself.
  3. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 11 October 2021 05: 14
    +1
    Taiwan's population is 23.57 million ... China's population is 1.402 billion.
    Taiwan is an island nation entirely dependent on external supplies of everything from the mainland.
    I bet 100 against 1 that Taiwan won't last long in the event of a conflict ... US assistance will not help ... as the author correctly said, the logistical leverage is too large for the US ... no need to tease China with a war.
    1. Doccor18
      Doccor18 11 October 2021 06: 49
      +3
      Quote: Lech from Android.
      I bet 100 against 1 that Taiwan won't last long in the event of a conflict ...

      Conflict is very unlikely, almost impossible. But, if it starts, the Americans will have no more than 5-7 days for everything, then it will be too late ...
      1. Kayala
        Kayala 11 October 2021 12: 23
        +1
        USA will not have any 5-7 days in case of conflict. Everything will be decided for a day or two, in China there are no fools in power to prolong the conflict. And by and large, the United States will not be able to do anything, even if all the aircraft carriers are assembled together and sent to Taiwan.
        1. Doccor18
          Doccor18 11 October 2021 12: 26
          +2
          To raze everything to the ground, of course, will be enough for a day ... Only to what?
          To capture and subjugate the island, at least a week.
          1. Kayala
            Kayala 11 October 2021 12: 36
            +2
            For complete control, yes, a week. But to capture the main points, I was not allowed help from the Americans for a couple of days.
            1. Doccor18
              Doccor18 11 October 2021 12: 49
              +2
              Quote: Kayala
              ... and not allowing help from the Americans is enough for a couple of days.

              This is the whole complexity of the operation. To carry out preparations so that the enemy does not understand, to ensure the blockade of the island so quickly that it was pointless to send AUG and ILC.
              1. Kayala
                Kayala 11 October 2021 13: 01
                0
                How long will it take amers to deploy at least five AUG in the direction of Taiwan, and even more so to do it secretly, which is unlikely? And it is unlikely that China will allow them to come close.
                1. Doccor18
                  Doccor18 11 October 2021 13: 09
                  +1
                  Quote: Kayala
                  And it is unlikely that China will allow them to come close.

                  And they don't need to get close.
                  F35 has a radius of almost 1000 km., JASSM-ER and LRASM have the same range, totaling 2000 km ....
                  1. Kayala
                    Kayala 11 October 2021 13: 16
                    +1
                    Why are they going to bomb? Troopers? So the landing will first of all occupy the factories, and the United States will definitely not hit them. And it makes no sense to shoot at the rest. And the AUG are not one hundred percent insured against Chinese submarines.
                    And again, the question is in the timing of the AUG approach, if they are initially brought up and kept in constant readiness, then it hurts on the budget. And if after, then you can wastefully drive them away with zero result, as it was under Trumpush off the coast of North Korea.
                    1. DO
                      DO 11 October 2021 16: 52
                      +1
                      Why are they going to bomb? ... factories, and the United States will definitely not hit them on them

                      The main contradiction between the United States and China is the claims of both powers for world economic leadership.
                      Therefore, if, God forbid, the confrontation between the United States and China comes to a hot war, then the United States will first of all bomb the fine Chinese factories into dust.
                      1. Kayala
                        Kayala 11 October 2021 17: 08
                        +1
                        Yes? And where will they then take the microcircuits? Just don’t tell me that they will promptly set up their release.
                      2. DO
                        DO 11 October 2021 18: 04
                        0
                        War is such an undesirable event, from which everyone gets shitty (except, of course, the puppeteers - the organizers of this war). Where will the microcircuits be taken? Yes, in the same place, where many and grub - nowhere. The question is who will get out of this ass faster than the rest.
                        But now I’ll tell you. It is highly likely that China will be among the first to start producing chips after the hypothetical collapse of TSMC. In any case, Huawei is still alive and well, and the sanctions seem to have benefited its development.
                        Where will the Americans get their microcircuits after the hypothetical bombing of China? They hardly think about it now. Especially after Trump left. Probably they think that somewhere over the horizon we will take, print bucks and buy. And if the price will bend, we will send AUG :))
              2. dzvero
                dzvero 11 October 2021 14: 00
                -3
                How long will it take amers

                depends on what stage they want to connect to and to what extent. After all, their first task will be to disrupt the landing operation of the PRC. The invasion fleet can be destroyed at sea, or you can disrupt the loading of troops. By strikes of the Kyrgyz Republic on Chinese ports. A couple of SSGNs and the same number of URO destroyers will be enough, but they are already hanging around in the region. In this scenario, Taiwan can survive the first blow, the scale of the landing will be thinner, and the United States will have a window of opportunity to raise additional forces. And then ... then it depends who more regularly treated with Faberge blendamed smile
                1. Kayala
                  Kayala 11 October 2021 14: 36
                  +7
                  A strike by Chinese ICBMs on Guam or by the US itself after the strike on Chinese ports is not foreseen? Something you somehow easily wrote off China for scrap.
                  1. dzvero
                    dzvero 11 October 2021 14: 49
                    +1
                    This is already at the second stage. How the map will lie and where the curve will lead ... And the attack on the ports is not a fact that it will take place - just one of the options for disrupting the landing. The landing of troops can be dispersed in time and places, and assembled into a "fist" before the operation itself. Then there will be very little time for response, and in a couple of (maximum) days it should be found out who is sick and who is overwhelmed. smile
                  2. Michael HORNET
                    Michael HORNET Today, 14: 52
                    0
                    So if Chinese ICBMs take off on Guam and Okinawa, the US with SSBNs will smear China into the Stone Age. The infrastructure there is extremely vulnerable, in fact, a narrow coastal strip. 100 warheads will very quickly put the Chinese in place
                    If, of course, there are enough eggs for the use of nuclear weapons
    2. onstar9
      onstar9 11 October 2021 21: 46
      -4
      Quote: Doccor18
      I bet 100 against 1 that Taiwan won't last long in the event of a conflict ...

      Conflict is very unlikely, almost impossible. But, if it starts, the Americans will have no more than 5-7 days for everything, then it will be too late ...

      Of course, China may well win, so to speak, in the overall result. But, do not forget about the general global resonance from such "violence" .... There will not be a good response for China around the world. Until China posed in the world as an aggressive invader. I have not "captured" anything yet. Everyone considers him "peaceful", despite some of his expansive remarks. But, the first precedent can change everything in the world. The fear and danger of other countries from China will immediately increase. Talk about a "peaceful and friendly" China will end. And no amount of talk about "China's right to Taiwan" will help here. An aggressor is an aggressor, whatever he explains it. What is done in the world without consent and negotiations does not end well. Remember the result of Russia after the "taking" of the Crimea. There, too, it was "everything is correct", "the referendum in Crimea", "we have the right" and so on. But this did not help the case. Russia has fallen into serious isolation and is now feared by everyone as a possible aggressor. China also runs the risk of sharing this in the world. Of course, he can "spit" on this, taking into account his strength and power, but I think that many of his plans for economic expansion around the world will collapse. The "Silk Road" will immediately be covered with a "copper basin", no doubt ... The whole world will suspect that "this uncle can use force if something seems wrong to him." And many countries will start to fear this. To rapidly strengthen the unification of countries, just in case, to defend against possible Chinese aggression. And China will find itself in significant isolation ... There is such a very big risk for China, there is a "loss of reputation" ... Will it go for it, we'll see ...
      1. Doccor18
        Doccor18 12 October 2021 12: 04
        +2
        Quote: onstar9
        The whole world will suspect that "this uncle can use force if something seems wrong to him." And many countries will start to fear this.

        And does this greatly excite and hinder the United States?
        If the PRC wins, it will take the place of the United States, the place of the absolute leader. And the leader is up to one place, what the others think to themselves ...
  4. ja-ja-vw
    ja-ja-vw 11 October 2021 16: 37
    0
    Quote: Lech from Android.
    Taiwan's population is 23.57 million ... China's population is 1.402 billion.
    Taiwan is an island nation entirely dependent on external supplies of everything from the mainland.
    I bet 100 against 1 that Taiwan won't last long in the event of a conflict ... US assistance will not help ... as the author correctly said, the logistical leverage is too large for the US ... no need to tease China with a war.

    Blockade of West Berlin (First Berlin Crisis (June 24, 1948 - May 11, 1949))
    On June 12, the Soviet Union interrupted road links with West Berlin, explaining this by the need for repair work.

    On June 21, river transport was stopped (some sources are counting the blockade from that moment), and three days later, "for technical reasons", the movement of trains was stopped and the power supply was cut off.

    Berlin airlift
    Deliveries began with a thousand tons of cargo per day, a week later they increased to 4400 tons, and by autumn to 5620 tons. The record day was April 16, 1949: 12849 tons, 1398 aircraft sorties, landing every minute.
    In just 321 days of the blockade, 278228 flights were made, 2 million 326 thousand 406 tons of cargo were delivered, three quarters of them by the US Air Force
    The bulk was made up of coal (1 million 421 thousand 119 tons), as well as gasoline, fuel oil and construction materials.
    Those planes, then, while the USSR coped.
    And now I think there will be no problems by sea. China will not be able to provide a complete blockade: it will have to go against the whole world. Japan, the Philippines, South Korea count at your side, what is the "logistics shoulder"?
    - fish are caught by themselves (and exported)
    -Animal graze
    - 24% of Taiwan's land is used for agriculture
    In 2010, Taiwan's food self-sufficiency was 32%.

    At the end of 2019, the share of renewable energy sources in the installed capacity of power plants accounted for 17,0%, and in the structure of electricity production - 5,6%.
    1. Sanichsan
      Sanichsan 17 October 2021 18: 54
      -1
      Quote: ja-ja-vw
      Blockade of West Berlin (First Berlin Crisis (June 24, 1948 - May 11, 1949))

      tell me, what will prevent China from blocking air communication with Taiwan?
      1. ja-ja-vw
        ja-ja-vw 18 October 2021 11: 46
        -1
        and what prevented the USSR from blocking air traffic with Z. Berlin?
        1. Sanichsan
          Sanichsan 20 October 2021 13: 27
          0
          Quote: ja-ja-vw
          and what prevented the USSR from blocking air traffic with Z. Berlin?

          you do not know? the hope of avoiding the cold war. tried not to complicate the situation.
          China has no such problems. they have already taken a rather tough stance.
  • riwas
    riwas 11 October 2021 05: 52
    +3
    Taiwan: the best excuse for World War III?

    There will be no war. Time is working for China, which knows how to wait. As the US weakens, China will quietly take Taiwan into its own hands.
  • Nafanya from the sofa
    Nafanya from the sofa 11 October 2021 06: 07
    +2
    The Ukrainian-Russian war, to which Russia never came, began to bore everyone. Therefore, they began to invent a new bogey - the Sino-Sino-American war. I can clearly see the brave Yankees, who are knee-deep in water on a Taiwanese beach, fighting off hordes of Chinese paratroopers in order to protect Taiwanese democracy in the person of President Tsai Ing-wen, who seems to have been bitten by someone from the Nizalezhnaya.
    Foreign countries will help us
    (O.I. Bender Bey)
  • parusnik
    parusnik 11 October 2021 06: 12
    +3
    Muscle play, play enough, get tired, drink some water, calm down, agree. smile
  • nickolai.maliugin
    nickolai.maliugin 11 October 2021 06: 19
    +2
    The pandemic plays in China's favor. Now the supply of all electronic equipment is either suspended or reduced. The industrial giants are suffocating from the lack of this equipment. The automotive industry is especially affected. Now each country has a goal, to find its own niche in international relations. At the same time, respecting their own interests.
  • Aleksandr21
    Aleksandr21 11 October 2021 06: 20
    +8
    The conflict over Taiwan is not related to the economy, chips and some kind of manufacturing capabilities of Taiwan (namely TSMC), here the problem is much more serious and global ... what is Taiwan? It is a rebellious province that offers mainland China an alternative development + incites separatist sentiments in other provinces, i.e. other provinces, seeing how Taiwan lives, can try to follow its path, and this is a threat to the CCP and its rule, + China has enough of its internal problems (Uighurs, Hong Kongers, etc.) and China needs to extinguish separatism in the bud ... ( that's about internal issues).

    Next, what happens after China resolves its domestic problems? And then he will turn his gaze to the South China Sea and his neighbors and begin to build a new world order ... (which the entire Western and Asian world is afraid of), so such resources are spent on containing the PRC and sticks in the wheels in matters with Taiwan ( i.e. do not allow to close this issue).

    Separately, I will say about TSMC .. after the military seizure of Taiwan (and the West will not allow a peaceful one), the island will be completely cut off oxygen economically / technologically, the equipment on which the chips are produced will most likely be destroyed (during the PRC operation in Taiwan), or taken out, if they have time ..... they can also destroy / take out: those. documentation, personnel can be evacuated from Taiwan, etc. that is, there is no guarantee at all that China will get something from this in terms of chip production .... and TSMC can completely move to the West (a plant in Arizona is already being built), so this is definitely not a story about chips.
    1. faiver
      faiver 11 October 2021 07: 12
      +1
      after the military capture of Taiwan (and the West will not allow a peaceful one)
      - wait a minute, but no one will go to war for Taiwan, but they will declare China an enemy of the democratic world, and introduce some sanctions, but carefully, so as not to fly in, but no more. China does not need to bend its neighbors with military force, China has a lot of green cut paper, it will buy everything it needs.
    2. ZAV69
      ZAV69 11 October 2021 07: 56
      +2
      Quote: Aleksandr21
      Separately, I will say about TSMC .. after the military seizure of Taiwan (and the West will not allow a peaceful one), the island will be completely cut off oxygen economically / technologically, the equipment on which the chips are produced will most likely be destroyed (during the PRC operation in Taiwan), or taken out, if they have time ..... they can also destroy / take out: those. documentation, personnel can be evacuated from Taiwan, etc. that is, there is no guarantee at all that China will get something from this in terms of chip production .... and TSMC can completely move to the West (a plant in Arizona is already being built), so this is definitely not a story about chips.

      Actually, it’s not 41 years old now, it’s impossible to start making chips just by dumping equipment into an open field. At least 3-5 years for the construction of the buildings, installation of equipment and commissioning. During this time, half of the world economy will fucking die, and first of all, the American IT giants will suffer. Will our American friends do this? Unlikely. So if something happens, dust particles will be blown away from the TSMC and they will transfer it to China in its entirety.
      1. ORINCH
        ORINCH 11 October 2021 08: 43
        +3
        The USA has Intel, TI, etc., they can count on the potential of Japan and South Korea. If Taiwan's capacity is lost, it will be China that will suffer the most severe consequences.
        1. Outsider V.
          Outsider V. 11 October 2021 11: 52
          +2
          TI is now expanding its production in Texas, bought a plant in Utah, and, interestingly, is building another plant in China.
        2. dementor873
          dementor873 11 October 2021 19: 48
          0
          Now, when there is no war, over the past year they have not helped much in the production of semiconductor products for the industry. Even if fret cars stop production due to lack of chips.
          1. Essex62
            Essex62 12 October 2021 09: 39
            -1
            This is where the opportunity for the wrestlers to print the money-box and put it into action. This is the real getting up from your knees. Trade in hydrocarbons is somehow not enough for a great Power.
    3. DO
      DO 11 October 2021 17: 25
      -2
      this is definitely not a story about chips

      This story is about chips.
      The world's largest semiconductor plant, TSMC, is located in Taiwan. The power that controls it therefore has a huge impact on the global economy (during today's chip shortage, this can be expressed, for example, in who to make happy first, and who to put at the end of the queue for chips). China is trying to use its historical, cultural and legal proximity to Taiwan to increase its influence in this sense. But so far he has been defeated, having received the sanctions of Huawei.
      If the contradictions between the United States and China lead to a forceful takeover of Taiwan by China (which China can easily do militarily at any moment), this will certainly lead to a factory shutdown. After all, it is quite possible that the machine tool manufacturer can stop the TSMC equipment, by network teams from distant Holland, on the orders of the United States. However, China will still get the main prize here - a trained production team + marketing connections and skills of TSMC merchants. And the Chinese will undoubtedly and soon build factories.
      1. Aleksandr21
        Aleksandr21 11 October 2021 18: 36
        +1
        Quote: DO
        However, China will still get the main prize here - a trained production team + marketing connections and skills of TSMC merchants.


        TSMC is primarily a western company, i.e. although the production is located in Taiwan, but the management and its owners are completely focused on the United States, the construction of a plant in the state of Arizona and further plans for setting up in the United States once again confirms this ... and with such a position, China is foolishly hoping for the equipment of this company, i.e. e. it's not a fact that they will be able to take it whole at all (the Americans will take care of it with the owners of this company) + even if the Chinese are lucky and they forcefully nationalize the plant with the whole equipment, then there are many pitfalls ... and there is a high probability that nothing will be gained from this at all , that's why I'm saying that it's not about chips (even though it's a global problem), but the snag around Taiwan is based on ethnicity, i.e. a rebellious province is a threat to the CCP's rule, because looking at the Taiwanese, what do the Chinese see? This is the same Han people, but living under the rule of democratic forces, and living quite well, whose GDP per capita is much higher + they do not have those prohibitions and laws of the CCP ... Hong Kong, by the way, also tried to follow this path, but in 2020 he was quickly explained whose province they are, and there is still a problem with the Uighurs, etc. therefore, it is important for the PRC to collect all its territories and prevent the spread of separatism to the rest of the provinces ...
        1. DO
          DO 11 October 2021 20: 38
          -2
          About Taiwanese equipment that will not work for the Chinese, we are bitterly proving the same thing to each other. The Chinese will solve the issue of equipping Chinese factories without Taiwan. But Taiwanese specialists trained in the high culture of semiconductor production will be very useful for this equipment.
          As for separatism in China, I am not an expert on this topic, but I have not heard that this problem in China was of the same great importance as, for example, in the 2000s, Chechnya was for Russia. Moreover, the well-being of the Chinese is growing, which, in theory, should heal the separatism of the population.
          1. Essex62
            Essex62 12 October 2021 09: 48
            0
            The difference in the level and living conditions of a Chinese, squeezed by the framework of a "communist" system and a bourgeois exploiter at the same time and a "Taiwanese" who has only the latter, in a milder form, is simply enormous. It is the political cause of the conflict that is more likely. The second most important is the production of microchips.
            1. DO
              DO 12 October 2021 12: 44
              0
              In general, we, the Russians, do not really care about the reasons why the Chinese will establish "constitutional order" in Taiwan. The important thing is that TSMC will at least temporarily stop at the same time.
              If this nevertheless happens, for example, by the summer (timing forecasts are as important as the event itself), then our processor developers for critical Russian industries should by this time agree with a mainland China plant, have recycled materials for their orders for other machines, and move orders to this plant.
              But the best solution would still be to simultaneously concentrate efforts on the earliest possible creation of Russian technology 28 nm, and later - 16 nm and less.
              1. Outsider V.
                Outsider V. 12 October 2021 13: 59
                0
                But the best solution would still be to simultaneously concentrate efforts on the earliest possible creation of Russian technology 28 nm, and later - 16 nm and less.


                Why is this running around exclusively for the latest technical processes, promoted in the media? All microelectronics are not limited to them. Most of the chips that are currently in short supply are 45 nm or more technology. Vaughn, for example, I already wrote above about the purchase by Texas Instruments (TI) of a plant in Utah. This plant has 45 and 65 nm technologies, and no one shouts that it is outdated forever and it urgently needs to be transferred to 16 nm or less.
                1. DO
                  DO 12 October 2021 15: 31
                  0
                  For microcircuits of electronics in deep space, micron technologies are generally used, which are highly resistant to hard space particles.
                  For microcontrollers, household meters and much more, 90 nm or more is normal.
                  But you try to design a modern desktop processor with technologies thicker than 28 nm. And you will end up with an uncompetitive product. Desktop Baikals and Elbruses are not made of fads in Taiwan at 28 nm norms. And multi-core server processors are at 16 nm.
                  Try putting a 28 nm processor into a self-powered gadget. The device will slow down modern applications from the Google store, and require charging in a couple of hours. I had such an old smartphone from Samsung.
                  That is, modern technical processes are niche technologies. And they are not PR at all, but a necessity that has already entered the world practice, whether we like it or not.
                  However, I agree that shouting about technologies 2 nm, 1 nm and less is empty PR. Moreover, Intel's 10nm technology has a higher packing density than TSMC 7nm.
                  And yet, chips with limit rates of 5 and 7 nm have an increased likelihood of failures and a short service life, compared to technologies thicker than 22 nm. For high performance and low consumption you have to pay with the above parameters.
                  1. Outsider V.
                    Outsider V. 12 October 2021 17: 05
                    +1
                    No one disputes that different technologies are needed for different purposes. But, in my opinion, in import substitution in niches of 45 nm and more, there is a lot of work on development.
                    1. DO
                      DO 12 October 2021 17: 29
                      0
                      Today, the 90 nm process technology has actually been established.
                      But I completely agree with you that for this technology, there is a lot of work on the development of import substitution.
                      1. DO
                        DO 14 October 2021 14: 21
                        +1
                        Although it would be correct to say that our 90 nm process technology WAS established, and I would like to hope that it will be restarted: www.kommersant.ru/doc/4869288.
                        Simply put, the plant went bankrupt, the specialists fled. The new owner is trying to solve the personnel problem, and declares his intention to restart the 130-90 nm line.
                      2. Outsider V.
                        Outsider V. 15 October 2021 14: 05
                        0
                        Texas in Utah is also buying a 130 nm plant, does not hesitate.

                        And the new owner of Angstrem (NM-Tech, I think) seems to be trying to attract specialists from the Taiwanese UMC to start production.

                        Another would be to understand what is going on with the production of Milandr.
                      3. DO
                        DO 15 October 2021 15: 09
                        0
                        "And the new owner of Angstrem (NM-Tech, I think) seems to be trying to attract specialists from the Taiwanese UMC to start production."
                        --
                        Trying not from a good life. For the Taiwanese will have to pay an order of magnitude more than our specialists who fled. On the other hand, it is possible that foreign specialists will pay for themselves by providing a lower percentage of marriage.
                        In any case, if they solve this problem of ineffective management of the industry even so, it is better than nothing.
  • Jacket in stock
    Jacket in stock 11 October 2021 06: 26
    0
    Some kind of porridge of myths, fantasies and conjectures.
    1. Andrey VOV
      Andrey VOV 13 October 2021 00: 20
      +1
      Also in the commentary went to these IT guys ... A special caste that always drinks energy and speaks the bird's language
      1. Outsider V.
        Outsider V. 13 October 2021 10: 29
        +1
        And you, I suppose, continue to believe that there are 1000 meters in a kilometer, when even children already know that there are actually 1024 of them there? lol
        1. Andrey VOV
          Andrey VOV 13 October 2021 12: 32
          0
          but by and large it doesn't matter to me, this does not affect my daily activities in any way
          1. Outsider V.
            Outsider V. 13 October 2021 13: 41
            0
            Don't you run in the morning? There, these extra 24 meters for every kilometer, oh, how they affect ... angry
            1. Andrey VOV
              Andrey VOV 13 October 2021 14: 01
              0
              Nope, I don't run .. but I didn't fall at all .. I walk for a heart attack or stroke, everything is better than running .. I ran in due time, that's enough
              1. Outsider V.
                Outsider V. 13 October 2021 22: 06
                +1
                Okay, I sincerely wish you not to catch up with either a heart attack or a stroke in this way.

                But! With such an inert social position (that is, unwillingness to admit that there are 1024 grams in a true kilogram) you will be weighed at the market: go buy a kilogram of cucumbers, and they will weigh 1000 grams for you, and put the missing 24 in your pocket!
                1. Andrey VOV
                  Andrey VOV 14 October 2021 13: 03
                  0
                  I grow cucumbers myself
                  1. Outsider V.
                    Outsider V. 15 October 2021 20: 49
                    +1
                    Nothing can get you through ... what It seems that you are not afraid of IT-shniki. good

                    But someone is taller to me for the fact that the extra 24 meters in every kilometer of running in the morning affects, put a minus ... laughing He is probably in the best shape, these 24 meters easily runs ...
  • Alex66
    Alex66 11 October 2021 06: 44
    +1
    It is no secret that even our satellites today will not fly anywhere without Taiwanese microcircuits. But from the United States one could expect anything, including sanctions pressure.
    If you don't have your own, then you can expect anything from others, even China, the USA, France ... But consumer goods are one thing, another is a microcircuit.
  • pytar
    pytar 11 October 2021 09: 16
    +4
    The price of Taiwan for the United States is enormous. If they lose Taiwan, they will lose their world leadership. The avalanche-like process will turn off, and Pax Americana will be replaced by Pax China, which, by the way, will be even tougher. With the current balance of power, neither China nor the United States will go to a direct large-scale military collision, since the results will be totally destructive for both countries and for the world. Demonstrations of force, yes ... threatening speeches from high tribunes, yes ... China can decide on a lightning-fast military operation only if conditions are created, such as the United States relaxes or pro-Beijing forces come to power in Taiwan. The victory and domination of China or the United States is not in Russia's interests. And in this situation, Russia is in a very advantageous position. hi
  • Cowbra
    Cowbra 11 October 2021 09: 20
    0
    And if you look a little further? Strategically, China - NAFIG does not need war NOW. At the moment, the Chinese fleet is not much, but weaker than the United States. The Strategic Missile Forces is definitely weaker. The army is stronger without options. The Air Force is stronger in this region simply because the ground aviation is a priori stronger than the aircraft carrier plus the strategic scraps, with the B-1b and B-52 decommissioned from the dump in Davis Monten. NOW - about parity. Moreover, according to all forecasts. both Chinese and American - well ahead of China's planned 2040 - China will unconditionally DOMINATE in all areas over the United States. That is, SSCHA + satellites too. WHAT TO GIVE A HOT NOW? !!!
    But for the United States - the only chance to somehow still fight for leadership - to unleash a war, but a small and victorious one - for a big one, according to the reports of their own think tanks - they already do not pull.
    So the article is meaningless. For the premise itself is simply not viable
  • Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 11 October 2021 09: 20
    0
    Fighting is expensive now, it will cost a pretty penny. It seems that the PRC and Taiwan will merge in ecstasy, agree on a peaceful unification. Only the question is different, the unification of "two Chinas" is beneficial to few people, especially the USA, Japan, South Korea, so the situation is being escalated. buy.
  • Borisych
    Borisych 11 October 2021 10: 08
    -4
    Taiwan does not know what war is at all, and its army even more so. The Chinese were sniffing gunpowder in Korea in 1953, not very well. If not for the Russian pilots, the US bombers would have made Korea a large Chinese cemetery, without exaggeration. They would have just bombed it out completely and without options. Then the Vietnamese gave the Chinese a narrow-eyed face during the Sino-Vietnamese conflict, proving to the world that crowds with machine guns and Chinese flags are not an army, but they are rabble for sure. Ours also kissed the Chinese face a couple of times in Damansky and Zhalanashkoye. Indo-Chinese waving with sticks can hardly be called a fight, let alone a war. So the landing of Chinese troops in Taiwan belongs to the genre of fantasy. Until they learn how to drive Americans with shaved Englishmen out of the straits, which they declared their own, the price of all Chinese military screams is negligible. And everyone understands this.
  • BISMARCK94
    BISMARCK94 11 October 2021 10: 38
    +1
    It is too expensive for everyone to stop the TSMC. There is already a shortage of semiconductors in the world. So the force method, I think, is out of the question.
  • motorized rifle
    motorized rifle 11 October 2021 12: 59
    +2
    Above, we compared Taiwan with Crimea, then it is necessary to draw a parallel with the annexation. China is clearly impressed by this standard of accession (i.e. bloodless), then one should expect that there will be no military seizure of Taiwan at the initiative of China in the near future. Like the Chinese do: "sit on the shore and wait for it to float by ..."
  • Siegfried
    Siegfried 11 October 2021 13: 47
    +2
    China produces and exports mainly $ 216 billion worth of goods by sea every 4 weeks. Much of this is owned by foreign manufacturers using China as an assembly site. But Chinese production is constantly increasing. Is the conflict with the United States over Taiwan a threat of a naval blockade of China for days? weeks? This will cause a serious global economic shock. The United States will not block China's trade, but, creating tension at sea over Taiwan, it is trying to hint to all manufacturers that it is dangerous to locate production in China, in the future everything may be covered. They want to shift world production from China to other countries. China is building the Silk Road to mitigate the impact of a possible naval trade blockade. Taiwan is just a pretext for the threat of a US naval war against China.
  • bk316
    bk316 11 October 2021 13: 55
    0
    it is not at all an option that the same factories for the production of microelectronics will not be included in the losses.

    Surely WILL BE.

    And the United States will not start a war with China without enlisting the support (or at least a guarantee of non-intervention) of Russia - this is madness. And they will not receive support, even though a carriage of cookies will bring a carriage of cookies.
    So nothing will happen. ALTHOUGH Hitler was not supposed to fight on 2 fronts either ...
  • Sfurei
    Sfurei 11 October 2021 14: 37
    0
    Roman, thanks for the article. Very detailed and balanced !! good
    I would only like to add that in this conflict, the United States with satellites could really influence China only by a sea blockade of cargo flows on remote borders. Because China is very dependent on many resources, including energy and food, this alone could put significant pressure on China. But most likely the conflict will be short-lived and the blockade will not have a significant impact.
    But as always, this is a double-edged sword - for the world economy (including the West) it will also hit hard.
  • Kars
    Kars 11 October 2021 14: 39
    0
    Everything will decide whether China has enough mojo to arrange a blockade of Taiwan, and the United States will start shooting it breaking through.
  • Just a Traveler
    Just a Traveler 11 October 2021 14: 54
    -2
    Thanks to the author for the material. Nice to read an understanding person.
  • AB
    AB 11 October 2021 16: 25
    -1
    Can anyone remember when, in the modern world, the US military successfully defended its partners? I cant remember. They got into a lot of things, but having gotten in the face, they got away to themselves, throwing a partner to solve their problems on their own.
  • DO
    DO 11 October 2021 16: 41
    -1
    for the development of the country, the PRC requires a huge number of chips. The Chinese are not able to arrange production on their own.

    What the Chinese have learned today to do relatively quickly and with sufficient quality is to organize the mass production of anything. The whole world was flooded with their goods.

    if you build a plant on the territory of the PRC and start technology, in a year the Chinese copier will thresh at a truly communist pace. But to invent it yourself - sorry, it's not for China.

    So the notorious TSMC actually did not invent anything technical, does not invent and is not going to do it. This is a factory equipped across Holland and under US control with machine tools that the whole world invented piece by piece. This plant is where chip inventor companies from all over the world place their orders, while remaining the intellectual owners of the manufactured product. The only thing that the creators of TSMC "invented" is a super-efficient organizational and commercial structure (the Russians would like to learn this). The mainland Chinese have also proven their ability to do the same.
    Well, anyone will quietly invent semiconductor machines for the Chinese, bypassing US sanctions, for a lot of Chinese money.
    1. Outsider V.
      Outsider V. 13 October 2021 22: 21
      0
      But invent it yourself - sorry, it's not for China


      I would argue with this thesis of the author, too, this is a worn-out stamp. Recall, for example, Huawei's activity in the development of new communication technologies M2M (NB-IoT) within LTE (4G) - and directly 5G. It is precisely in development - not in copying or mass production - that they very successfully opposed Western competitors (Ericsson, Intel, etc.) in the war of standards.
  • Orsis338
    Orsis338 11 October 2021 17: 16
    +1
    With a swoop, the Chinese cannot take Taiwan, it is enough to look at the geography of the island, there is only one side favoring an amphibious operation. And this side will be defended with all the strength of the Taiwanese. Yes, and they will have enough missiles so that, if not to overwhelm the entire invasion fleet of the PRC, then at least thin out the Xiongfen to help. And after that, they will be able to fight back, and help will be on the way. The Chinese, of course, can throw everything with their MRBMs, but you can't throw everything in the mountains, and Taiwan will be able to answer, they also have cruise missiles that reach the entire southern economic region, incl. and to the Three Gorges hydroelectric power station. And there is no sense in arranging a nuclear wasteland instead of Taiwan, what is the point of war then?
    1. The comment was deleted.
  • Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 11 October 2021 18: 16
    +1
    As a country that does not manufacture microcircuits and does not produce any noticeable amount of equipment based on them, we can calmly relax. These are big boys' games. Young thieves have nothing to do on an adult gangway ...
  • Non-fighter
    Non-fighter 11 October 2021 19: 31
    0
    And now the fact that the author of the article forgot about the production of microcircuits.
    The production of microcircuits is a long-term multistage process that requires special equipment and consumables. Read the wiki first. If for the production of microcircuits you need 1001 jars with a consumption and you have 999, then you will not make a microcircuit. Yes, you can catch up with doctoral students and academicians and candidates, and they will make you 1 liter of ultrapure hydrofluoric acid. This is with simple substances, but with the photoresist it is getting worse, it took a lot of time and money to develop it, you don't blind it quickly on your knee. Pouring uncertified consumables into the production unit is SCARY. For if something goes wrong, then you will not buy a new unit because no one will sell it to you.
    And it takes place in ultra-clean rooms, in which every speck of dust in the air is counted, certified and tested. Even on the foot, the microcircuit factory is a suitcase without a handle, and even with a fragile service inside. One blow - and we get a suitcase of cullet instead of a beautiful service.
    This theory and now let's see how it happens in practice.
    Several years ago, South Korea and Japan were on the brink of a trade war. How it was from my point of view.
    I hope everyone understands that during World War II, the Japanese frolicked in the occupied territories so that even the hardened SS men nervously vomited on the sidelines. They did not deny themselves anything up to and including cannibalism. And after the war, pay compensation.
    Yu.K. Our Supreme Court ruled that Japan should pay compensation to the victims of the occupation.
    Yap: We paid you everything in the 70s, the question is closed.
    Yuk: Yes, but you paid to the state, and these are claims of private individuals.
    NS. Themselves figure out who owes what to whom. And in order to think better, we deprive you of the status of a privileged trading partner and stop supplying expenses for the production of microcircuits.
    Yuk (turning back): Let's live together? Like before?
    Now for the war itself. Before the war, there is a threatened period when everyone puffs out their cheeks. In order to reduce the attractiveness of the seizure of factories for the production of microcircuits, it is enough to do the following:
    1. Maximally reduce the stock of consumption.
    2. Prepare key units for destruction / decommissioning. The simplest thing is a sledgehammer next to the unit. And where to hit the target if something happens. More difficult - half-loosened screws so that you can quickly remove the assembly. Well, specially trained people (not from the factory staff !!!) are nearby, ready to do whatever is needed on command.
    Let's go further. The redeployment of troops and the loading of troops on ships cannot be hidden anyway, in terms of time it is at least a day. If you think I'm wrong. argue reasonably. Even if the Americans do not interfere, they will provide intelligence information in real time, and they will have time to disable the equipment at the enterprise. If the Chinese manage to capture Taiwan, then further negotiations. The West repairs lines, supplies consumables, and the Chinese supply microcircuits in the same volume and range.
    BUT!! In 5 years, new, more modern factories will be built in the West, and the need for TSMC with its outdated equipment will disappear.
    ZY As for the expense, this is generally a dream of the West. Leave only key production facilities without which you cannot make the final product. I wonder whose consumption is used in our country in the production of supposedly domestic microcircuits?
  • Gunther Prin
    Gunther Prin 11 October 2021 19: 35
    -3
    Disembarkation is impossible for a simple reason. As the British told the Germans in 1940, get ready to feed the fish. China is a collos with feet of clay. Experience of hostilities 0, and the landing to capture the bridgehead even the Germans did not succeed in 1940, not to mention the Chinese .. 22 frigates from Taiwan are a second more than all frigates of the Russian fleet, they are unlikely to stand on the sidelines, 200+ F-16 fighters and Mirage + a couple of hundred Americans with Taiwanese asterisks against 300-400 Sushki, they are not drawn to the blitzkrieg. + half a million army will throw off any first landing force that breaks through. Everything will be very long and dirty, like everything in Asia, and most likely the United States will intervene and China will shamefully crawl away to lick its wounds. As for nuclear weapons, our yellow brothers have no chance there. All China is a coastal zone, cover it with 10-20 charges, its civilization will go out, the USA will survive a couple of charges calmly due to geography. Not according to Senka a hat, let them steal further and copy and paste what else to take from them ...
  • Seamaster
    Seamaster 12 October 2021 00: 03
    +2
    What are the battles of fleets, what rocket attacks between the PRC and Guam? The main points in Taiwan will be captured by airborne assault forces in one night. As it was in Czechoslovakia in 1968. In the morning, the landing of troops from the sea will also begin at the key points of the island. The air cover will be total. For a DAY, all important objects of the island will be captured. No bombing, no rocket attacks - only in case of resistance. And there will be no resistance. Because the Taiwanese are the descendants of the most cowardly Kuomintang military, who in 1949 did not resist the communist troops of Mao Tse-tung, but rushed into emigration. Like our whites from the Crimea. And then the PLA units will begin to land in the ports and the full occupation and clean-up of the island will begin. And you will convene an extraordinary session at the UN. Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia will support them. The rest will be monopenisual.
  • Klingon
    Klingon 12 October 2021 00: 34
    +1
    Quote: onstar9
    Quote: Stroporez
    Let me remind you that not everyone in the GDR wanted to unite either.

    Well, it's easy to talk about politics, but who wants to live under Chinese "control"? Taiwanese will have the same control if they submit to the Chinese dictator. Freedom and democracy are not to be seen. And for some reason, no one from Russia wants to go to China to live, especially the rich and officials. China is a friend, and the West is an enemy, but everyone goes to live and buys villas in the "enemy West" ...

    In the west, freedom is imaginary. Try it in Europe just where you want to put up a tent or fish and everything will become clear to you wassat
    This is just a small example of a whole heap of similar babuy
  • Sergei Khukharev
    Sergei Khukharev 12 October 2021 02: 14
    -1
    The PRC is not required to fight for Taiwan, because it already belongs to China.
  • Adam men
    Adam men 12 October 2021 10: 16
    -2
    Thanks to the author and my respect. The material is written competently, balanced, reasoned, systematically. Yes, some statistics would be helpful. But overall, very good. Alas, there is less and less good journalism. And this article is very good.
  • va3610
    va3610 12 October 2021 15: 49
    -1
    Even if we assume that China invades Taiwan, nothing will happen, the Americans will wash themselves.
  • Petrik66
    Petrik66 13 October 2021 13: 04
    0
    Americans will take out cadres who, as you know, decide everything, strike at factories and that's it, so nobody can get it. ...
  • Denis812
    Denis812 14 October 2021 18: 28
    0
    It seems to me that the author has several contradictions.
    1. China cannot create anything by itself, but stupidly copies what others have invented and cannot do otherwise. Therefore, China needs to take over Taiwan, where most of the microcircuits are produced. But sorry, this is not how China solves the problem. He will receive a part of the infrastructure with a part of engineers, but he will not learn how to make microcircuits. He will learn to clone what will be at that time on the tables of the captured plant.

    2. Yes, Taiwan produces most of the microcircuits, and China is one of the leading consumers. The only problem is that the seizure of Taiwan by China will lead to the cessation of Chinese exports to the EU and the United States and to many other places. Why does China even need a super valuable resource, but which will kill most of its exports?

    For China, the capture of Taiwan could be possible in one case: US and NATO forces do not intervene. There are no sanctions from the United States and other countries against China.
    Otherwise, by conquering a pawn, China sacrifices a rook. This is not true strategically.

    The correct option is a slow, gradual takeover, buying Taiwanese collaborators, etc. by "democratic methods" to gain power and vote for accession. This will be the norm.
    1. DO
      DO 15 October 2021 15: 37
      0
      The United States has a global super-task to lower its economic rival China, which has taken the lead. And the United States is doing this by any means. And Taiwan is one of the battlefields of this confrontation. If the Chinese gain a "controlling stake" in influence on TSMC by any means, the United States will not hesitate to stop TSMC. Moreover, it is very easy to do this by ordering the Dutch machine tool manufacturers TSMC to stop the equipment via the network. And if the Chinese, in one way or another, after some time, nevertheless restart this plant, more rude ways of stopping by the United States are not excluded.
      1. Denis812
        Denis812 15 October 2021 15: 40
        -1
        Well, ok, let them stop, what's the problem?
        1. DO
          DO 15 October 2021 15: 50
          0
          Problems will arise for Russian processor developers, who place orders for their manufacture specifically at the Taiwanese TSMC factory.
          1. Denis812
            Denis812 15 October 2021 15: 51
            -1
            So what? They will arise and disappear. when they are reinforced.
            What's the problem?
            1. DO
              DO 15 October 2021 15: 53
              0
              Didn't understand why they were? And who are "them"?
              1. Denis812
                Denis812 15 October 2021 15: 54
                -1
                will replace. Will replace hardware developers.
                1. DO
                  DO 15 October 2021 16: 04
                  0
                  It is impossible to replace semiconductor equipment developers overnight. For in the world it is monopolized by the Dutch company ASML, controlled by the United States. Therefore, the Chinese will have to independently organize the development and production of such equipment. However, most likely, they have already taken care of this problem.
                  This situation forces the Russians to engage in their own development and production of technology, for a start, 28 nm.
                  1. Denis812
                    Denis812 15 October 2021 16: 04
                    -1
                    well, ok, they will replace it.
                    What is the question?
                    1. DO
                      DO 15 October 2021 16: 10
                      0
                      How you want to succumb to your optimism! :))
                      However, as of today, in Russia, even the production of 130-90 nm has been suspended, and the technologists have fled. Because of organizational problems, not because of technical ones.
  • Aleksandr97
    Aleksandr97 15 October 2021 14: 03
    0
    The ideological pumping in China has already started! Doubts about the rapid seizure and cleansing of Taiwan are, to put it mildly, untenable. The question is in the subsequent costs, primarily of an economic nature, which China will try to avoid playing in the long run.
    Pictures of Taiwan's return to its home harbor and the capture of the presidential palace in Taiwan.




  • Igor Svir
    Igor Svir 15 October 2021 21: 04
    +1
    Well what can I say - Taiwan is all the same Chinese territory and the Chinese people .. and the analogy with Crimea is even more correct than many think .. and it doesn't matter if the army of Taiwan is a million - it doesn't care about ANYONE in the Middle Kingdom in the long term ... One day Taiwan will be CHINA - POINT.
  • plant15
    plant15 16 October 2021 21: 43
    0
    Quote: DO
    In any case, Huawei is still alive and well, and the sanctions seem to have benefited its development.

    Huawei ends the first half of 2021 with a drop in revenue of 30%
    “Our goal is to survive with sustainability. To achieve this goal, we will take steps to deliver value to our customers and partners. Despite the externally driven decline in revenue generated by our Consumer Electronics business, we are confident that both him and the business line will continue to grow steadily. "
    Huawei Chairman Eric Xu
    https://ru-bezh.ru/kompanii-i-ryinki/news/21/08/09/huawei-zavershila-pervoe-polugodie-2021-goda-padeniem-vyiruchki
    The chairman, unlike you, is not talking about the benefits and about being alive and well, but about the survival of the company with a drop in income.
  • Victor Leningradets
    Victor Leningradets 20 October 2021 15: 45
    -1
    Thank you, Roman, for bringing up the topic of the coming war.
    But a number of your statements raise questions:
    The US Navy is luxurious, but it will operate at a distance from its bases, at the sight of Chinese coastal complexes.

    No need to delude yourself, the US Navy (by the way, much more impressive than the Chinese) will operate relying on the Philippines and Japan, where the bases are a dime a dozen.
    But what Donald Trump was afraid to do (although he promised) in terms of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Biden did without straining too much. And not really thinking about the allies who were simply abandoned there.

    The fact of the matter is that ALL resources are simply released for the war in the Pacific theater of operations, and the rapid creation of the US-UK-Australia-India (-Japan-Canada-Philippines) alliance testifies to the irreversibility of the process.
    And if in the Afghan show the US army simply fled the region, then in Taiwan it may not even appear.

    This would be the beginning of the end of the Anglo-Saxon world and the prologue of world chaos.
    I am sure that Chinese Taiwan will sell the products of its factories to the same Americans in the same way. Chickens laying the golden eggs are not allowed on the noodles, this is a fact.

    It is a pity that one corporal did not know about this on 22.06.1941/XNUMX/XNUMX. Otherwise, he received platinum eggs with rhinestones. In fact, the Vikings still practiced evaluating "trading partners" as potential prey.