Croatian edition: In the event of Russia's "attack" on the Baltics, the EU will be unable to help
The Russian army can invade the Baltic countries at any time, writes the author of an article for the Croatian edition of Binkov's Battlegrounds. Whether the European Union will be able to cope with Russia without the help of the United States and Great Britain, he asks.
The author proposes to consider the following situation: the Russian army suddenly invades the Baltic countries, but there are no US and British military contingents, there are only the forces of the European Union, which now has to cope with the threat alone.
According to the author, the Baltics are militarily weak and are unable to cope with possible aggression without outside help. The personnel of the armies are poorly trained, the mobile reserve is small, there is almost no modern military equipment, there is almost no air defense and combat aviation... On the territory of the three countries, international forces are serving, designed to resist "Russian aggression."
In the event of an attack by Russia, the European Union will be able to deploy at the first stage, by and large, 10 fighters from the Italian or German Air Force, about 10 motorized infantry companies and one tank, some electronic warfare and two mortar platoons. On the other hand, the Russian army, represented at the first stage by units of the Western Military District and the Northern fleet, and then subdivisions of other districts will catch up. In any case, Russian forces will outnumber those of the Baltic states and the EU.
At the first stage, Russia can throw significant forces into the offensive, while the EU will have to assemble units and subunits dispersed throughout Europe. Even if, in the end, Europe manages to assemble its aviation, which is generally superior to Russian, it will face superior Russian air defense forces. Thus, Russia will "easily" take over the Baltics.
In the author's opinion, in the future, European forces will be able to suppress the attack of Russian aviation due to their "technical advantage", but "they will have to sweat." At the same time, Poland is attacking the Kaliningrad region, of course not alone, but with the help of the troops of Germany, France, Italy and other countries. After final agreement, European forces will go on the offensive, which could lead to fierce fighting.
The author draws numerous options for the development of hostilities with the participation of Poland and the Baltic States, European and Scandinavian countries and even Ukraine, which, in his opinion, will try to reclaim its territories. As a result, he comes to the conclusion that Russia can capture part of the Baltic states, but it will stop itself, fearing the loss of the Kaliningrad region in the course of a European counterstrike. And the United States and Great Britain will not remain on the sidelines, he said.
Thus, at the first stage, the European Union will not help the Baltics in any way, the author sums up.
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